8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Bills -7.5, Over/Under: 46.5
Week Ten comes to its conclusion tonight in Orchard Park, where the struggling Buffalo Bills look to course correct themselves in this primetime showdown with the suddenly hot Denver Broncos, who are fresh off their bye week after earning back-to-back victories. The fact that there is optimism surrounding the Broncos (3-5, Last in AFC West) winning consecutive games should offer some insight as to how difficult it has been for this proud franchise that holds itself to the lofty standard of competing for Super Bowls. However, since hoisting their last Lombardi Trophy back in 2015, Denver has been anything but super, stringing together SEVEN straight seasons with nary a playoff appearance to show for it, including SIX losing campaigns in a row. In fact, their surprising 24-9 upset of the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Chiefs two weeks ago marked the first time that they had managed to win back-to-back games since September 25th of 2022! Of course, last year’s miserable campaign led to their third head coaching change in eighteen months, as the Walton-Penner Family and (General Manager) George Paton enticed (Head Coach) Sean Payton out of his sabbatical to lead the club back to the promised land. Needless to say, expectations were high for Payton (pictured below) who enjoyed a largely successful reign in New Orleans in which he won 63.1% of his games over fifteen years, including the franchise’s first and only Super Bowl, to turn around a team that was expected by many to contend last Fall, only to collapse in spectacular fashion. One of the few, true offensive masterminds in the NFL, Payton constructed a Saints attack that ranked in the top-10 in total offense for a staggering FOURTEEN consecutive years, including first on six occasions. With that in mind, his main challenge at Mile High would be to build a quality unit with personnel that has rarely been greater than the sum of their parts. This, of course, brings us to (veteran Quarterback) Russell Wilson, whom the club acquired in a blockbuster trade with the Seahawks prior to last season, parting ways with a wealth of young players and draft capital along the way. The logic here was sound, folks, as the Broncos have had a revolving door at QB since Peyton Manning led them to that triumph in Super Bowl 50. It is nigh impossible to win in today’s NFL without a good Quarterback, with Denver being Exhibit A for the past seven years. Surely, Wilson, a nine-time Pro-Bowler and Super Bowl Champion still in his prime would change all that, right? Well…. as it turned out, Wilson shipped was by far and away the worst campaign of his career, leading (former HC) Nathaniel Hackett to his dismissal with two weeks to play. So, as we circle back to this Fall, how has Payton done with roughly half of the season in the books, you ask? By all means, it was a rough start for the 59-year-old, who watched his troops stumble to a 1-5 start, which included a 20-70 beatdown in Miami, with rumors running rampant that they were going to be major sellers at the Trade Deadline. However, the Broncos stood largely pat at the deadline, holding on to their playmakers at the skill positions, which should offer some insight into what Payton and Paton think of their roster. During this win streak, the offense has refrained from shooting themselves in the foot (-6 turnover differential in their 5 losses), enjoying a +5-turnover margin, while the defense has picked themselves up off of the proverbial mat from that embarrassing knockout on South Beach. This was evident in that stunning victory over Kansas City, which snapped a 16-game losing streak to their division rivals. After forcing a quick three-and-out on the opening possession, the Broncos set the tone early with a 10-play drive culminating in a short touchdown pass from Wilson to (young Tailback) Javonte Williams. From there, (Defensive Coordinator) Vance Joseph’s unit rose to the occasion in halting Patrick Mahomes & Co over and over again, forcing FIVE turnovers, including a pair of interceptions and fumble recoveries apiece, along with a turnover on downs midway through the fourth quarter. The hosts relegated the reigning MVP to 240 yards and three turnovers on 24-of-38 passing, sacking Mahomes three times, hitting him on eleven occasions, and totaling nine more pressures. (Defensive Backs) Ja’Quan McMillan and Justin Simmons each snared an interception, with the latter recovering a fumble, while (young Edge-Rusher) Baron Browning logging a pair of sacks and a forced fumble. Despite passing for just 119 yards, Wilson was uber-efficient in completing 12-of-19 passes and tossing three touchdowns, one to Jerry Jeudy and another to Courtland Sutton, who were the two Receivers most talked about at the deadline. Now, with a bye week to continue building upon this recent success, will these Broncos keep it going? A win over the Bills would go a long way towards changing the narrative that has dominated the franchise over the past half-decade, while putting them in the discussion for Wild Card contention, which if we’re being honest seemed unfathomable about a month ago.
From a betting perspective, the Broncos are 3-5 straight-up though eight games, though have been less rewarding for those wagering on them, posting a 2-5-1 record against the spread. With that being said, Denver began the campaign covering NONE of their first six outings, only to stop the proverbial bleeding with back-to-back outright wins and covers, highlighted by that upset of the Kansas City (-7) at Mile High. Dating back to last season, this is a team that is just 3-6-1 against the spread over their last ten games overall, including 4-5-1 in their past ten trips away from the Rocky Mountains. While the last few years have seen plenty of poor offensive performances from these ponies, they have managed to bounce back after particularly dreadful ones; the Broncos are a staggering 9-1 against the spread after being held below 250 total yards in the previous contest, which is the case tonight. On the flipside, they’ve been downright dreadful when competing on field turf, failing to cover SEVEN such games in a row, and the last time we checked, the field at Orchard Park is composed of that very substance. Speaking of this particular matchup, tonight’s affair probably won’t invoke memories of the Elway/Kelly era for these teams, but it should be noted that Denver has dropped five of the last six encounters dating back to 2009, with their lone coming ten years ago at Mile High. In fact, they didn’t cover the spread in that one, making their last win in that regard in this series in 2005! In their most recent tilt, a 19-48 Bills rout back in 2020, the Broncos were run out of their own stadium as 5.5-point underdogs. Trailing 13-21 at halftime, the hosts ceded TWENTY unanswered points in the third quarter, en route to shipping a total of 534 yards of offense to their opponent, including 182 on the ground. Granted, there aren’t many players left from that particular team, with the roster having been shuffled multiple times after a pair of coaching changes. Over the course of his career as a Head Coach, Payton is 9-6 straight-up when following a bye week, while posting a mediocre 7-8 record against the spread with a full week of rest. On the injury front, the Broncos should see the return of (veteran Safety) Kareem Jackson after he was suspended for two games for multiple personal foul penalties earlier in the campaign, with the Defensive Back owning quite the reputation of dealing out illegal hits. (Young Linebacker) Baron Browning (wrist) is expected to participate as well, while (Starting Guard) Ben Powers is probable with a tender ankle. Looking ahead, the schedule is far from daunting for Payton & Co, who will face the Vikings, Browns, and Texans in the coming weeks, providing them with an opportunity to build some momentum and make a desperate push for the postseason.
Meanwhile, as their opponent begins rising, the Bills (5-4, 2nd in AFC East) find themselves stuck in an uncomfortable malaise, having alternated wins and losses over the last six weeks. As a result, the three-time reigning AFC East Champions are closer to falling out of the playoff picture altogether than capturing a fourth straight division crown. So, what in the name of Marv Levy is going on in Orchard Park, you ask? Well, after suffering three consecutive bitter postseason exits, Buffalo went about trying to evolve into a side that was more well-rounded and less dependent on the arm and legs of (perennial Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Josh Allen. Over the last three seasons, Allen (pictured below) has enjoyed a meteoric rise to elite status, averaging over 4,400 passing yards and a whopping thirty-six touchdowns per campaign. The connection between the 27-year-old and (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Stefon Diggs (112.7 catches, 1,396.3 yards, and 9.7 touchdowns per year) has been the driving force behind an attack that has become one of the league’s most potent. However, in an NFL that has become more QB-driven than ever, this is a team whose chemical dependence on Allen to be elite every week has seen them unable to overcome his mistakes. Consider this: no player in the league has accounted for more touchdowns (66) than Allen dating back to the beginning of the last season, though he has also nonetheless shipped more turnovers (30) than anyone at his position. This was the primary reason that (Head Coach) Sean McDermott, (General Manager) Brandon Beane, and (Offensive Coordinator) Ken Dorsey have spent the last two years attempting to bring more balance to the offense, particularly the ground game which has also relied upon the services of their Quarterback. Over the last three seasons, the rushing attack has ranked seventeenth, thirteenth, and most recently fifth (which coincided with Dorsey being promoted to OC last Fall), which shows their growth in that department. However, Allen has remained a huge part of this aspect of the attack, accounting for an average of 648.7 yards and 7.0 touchdowns per season during that stretch, which equates to over a quarter of their rushing production and nearly half of their ground scores. This is why the Bills drafted (Rookie Tight End) Dalton Kincaid twentieth overall, so that they could utilize more two-TE formations, which teams typically use to run the ball better. Unfortunately, that idea has gone in the crapper with the loss of (veteran Tight End) Dawson Knox out for an unknown amount of time with a broken wrist. Effectively, Kincaid is the only healthy Tight End on the roster, which means that Dorsey has been forced to go back to spreading things out with multiple Receivers and once again relying on his Quarterback to be Superman. Over the last five weeks (2-3), the offense has averaged just 20.2 points on 353.6 total yards, though have been relegated to 59.3 rushing yards in the three defeats, all the while committing an untenable NINE turnovers along the way. It also hasn’t helped that McDermott’s defense has been ravaged by injuries (much more on that shortly), which has placed more pressure upon Allen to take ill-advised chances downfield. This was the case with last Sunday night’s 18-24 loss at the Bengals in a rematch of last January’s disappointing defeat at Highmark Stadium. After starting fast with an 85-yard, 10-play drive culminating in a short scramble into the end zone by Allen, the visitors stalled repeatedly, amassing just forty-five yards the rest of the way until halftime, with a pair of punts bookending an interception of Allen. Coming out of intermission, they would march fifty-eight yards downfield in eleven plays, though were forced to settle for a field goal, followed by a punt on their next possession. However, the play that changed everything was on their penultimate drive of the night; trailing 10-21 early in the fourth quarter, Allen & Co drove all the way down to Cincinnati’s 22-yard line, and on first-and-ten, Allen found Kincaid in the middle of the field for an easy first down, only for the young Tight End to lose the football as he was tackled in midair, with the hosts recovering possession and bleeding much of the clock before nailing a crucial field goal to make it a 14-point deficit. Though Allen would find Diggs for a touchdown not long afterward, it would be too late to mount a proper comeback. In the end, Buffalo was held to just 317 total yards, rushing for a mere sixty-eight yards on sixteen carries, en route to possessing the ball for 23:22 of gametime. Allen completed 26-of-38 passes for 258 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while rushing for another forty-four yards and that opening score. Diggs would haul in six receptions on seven targets for eighty-six yards and that aforementioned touchdown, while Kincaid posted an otherwise stellar performance apart from that crucial fumble, with ten catches on eleven targets for eighty-one yards. As for the defense, they simply couldn’t get the Bengals off the field, shipping 8-of-15 third downs and 1-of-2 on fourth in what played out as a cold redux of their affair in the playoffs. With half of the campaign in the books, there is time for the Bills to turn things around, though we have a hard time envisioning them changing their identity on the offensive side of the football at this point, particularly given their injury woes. For better or worse, they will continue to ride or die on the playmaking of their Quarterback, leaving us all to wonder just how far he can take them this time around…
From a betting perspective, the Bills may be 5-4 and in control of one of the AFC’s three Wild Cards, but they have been another story altogether in regard to the spread, covering only three times this Fall. In fact, Buffalo began the campaign on a promising 3-1 tear, though haven’t covered the spread now in FIVE consecutive outings. Three times during that span they have been favored by more than seven points, though in their trip to Cincinnati last weekend, they met defeat as an underdog for the first time in 2023 (+1.5). Dating back to last season, this is a team that is 3-7 against the spread over their last ten games overall, including an identical mark in their past ten contests at Highmark Stadium. Looking at this particular matchup, the Bills have OWNED the series for going on two decades now, winning five of the last six encounters, including each of the past dating back to 2008. As we stated earlier, their most recent affair, that 48-19 blowout at Mile High was one of the most one-sided in history of the series. McDermott’s troops outgained the hosts 534-255, thanks in large part to the brilliance of Allen, who completed 28-of-40 passes for 359 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for twenty-two yards and another pair of scores on just three carries. As for Diggs, he hauled in eleven receptions on thirteen targets for 147 yards. Over the course of his career, Allen is unbeaten in two meetings with Denver, completing 66.1% of his throws for an average of 272.0 yards on a healthy 8.1 net yards per attempt with six total touchdowns and an interception. On the injury front, the Bills have been one of the most banged-up teams in the league for weeks now, with both sides of the football going through it. Defensively, (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Tre’Davious White (Achilles), (veteran Linebacker) Matt Milano (ACL), (Defensive Tackle) DaQuan Jones (pectoral), and (young Cornerback) Kaair Elam (ankle) are all out for the season with various maladies, while (Defensive Backs) Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Christian Benford, and Damar Hamlin along with (Edge-Rusher) Leonard Floyd and (Linebacker) Terrel Bernard are all listed as questionable with respective ailments. Offensively, Allen has been nursing a sore throwing shoulder for weeks, while the aforementioned Knox is out indefinitely with a broken a wrist, severely depleting the depth at that latter position. Looking ahead, if Buffalo truly wishes to get back on track, then this would be the opportune time to do so, with Denver and the Jets coming to Orchard Park. Afterwards, McDermott & Co will travel to Philadelphia for an affair with the league-leading Eagles, before taking on the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Chiefs, Cowboys, and Chargers all in succession after a long-awaited bye week.