8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Chiefs -2.5, Over/Under: 45.5
Week Eleven comes to a close in about the best way possible, as the Philadelphia Eagles travel to Arrowhead Stadium where the Kansas City Chiefs await in a highly anticipated rematch of Super Bowl LVII. Historically speaking, this is just the SEVENTH Super Bowl rematch in the following season, with these two teams carrying the highest combined win percentage of combatants (.833) in such contests. For those wondering, the team that had hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in the previous meeting has gone on to win FIVE of the previous six encounters. Needless to say, that is something that must be on the collective mind of the Eagles (8-1, 1st in NFC East), who have been on a mission of unfinished business since the confetti began falling from the rafters of State Farm Stadium last February. Make no mistake about it, this is a very different team than the one that took the field in that affair, with both coordinators and a number of starters having left the proverbial nest for greener pastures. However, the DNA remains the same for (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni’s troops, who have nonetheless marched through one of the softest schedules in the NFL to amass the best record in the league. Sure, it hasn’t been necessarily smooth soaring for these birds, but results are results. Even with a negative turnover differential (-2) and a middling performance in the red zone (55.6%, 12th Overall), the attack has nonetheless been potent under (Offensive Coordinator) Brian Johnson; Philly ranks third in points (28.0) and fifth in total yards (390.5), including tenth in passing yards (260.8) and eighth in rushing yards (129.7). Johnson was elevated to OC primarily on the strength of his relationship with (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Jalen Hurts, who has been subject of a meteoric ascension over the past three years. By and large, Hurts (pictured below) has played well, completing 68.9% of his passes for 2,347 yards on 6.80 net yards per attempt, with fifteen touchdowns and a QBR of 66.7, while rushing for another 316 yards and seven scores, which are all in line with the numbers posted last Fall. However, he’s already thrown eight interceptions in nine games, which is two more than he tossed in fifteen games last season, which is a likely a sign of the learning curve that has come with Johnson now calling plays. With that being said, the biggest issue has been the defense, particularly the pass defense, which has yet to really find its footing under the stewardship of (Defensive Coordinator) Sean Desai. Unlike Johnson, Desai wasn’t promoted from within Sirianni’s coaching staff, instead coming over from Seattle where he was their Associate Head Coach-Defense. While the Eagles have ranked atop the NFL against the run (66.3 yards per game allowed), they have been far more generous against the pass, shipping 257.0 yards (29th Overall) on 5.9 net yards per attempt (13th Overall), along with nineteen touchdowns opposed to just four interceptions, both of which rank next-to-last in the league. While the transition to Desai has played a role here, this is also where the roster has experienced the bulk of its turnover, with four starters (two Linebackers and two Safeties) leaving in Free Agency. There is also a theory that Desai simply doesn’t understand what he has, choosing to blitz frequently despite having a Defensive Line that is fully capable of getting ample pressure on their own. This disconnect has seen this unit struggle situationally, shipping a 42.6% success rate on third down (27th Overall) and 64.3% rate in the red zone (28th Overall), which are far cries from the numbers posted a year ago. When last we saw the Eagles, we saw the good and bad in their 28-23 rally over the Cowboys two weeks ago. After forcing a punt on the opening possession, Philadelphia marched seventy-seven yards downfield in thirteen plays, punctuated with a rushing touchdown courtesy of (veteran Tailback) Kenneth Gainwell to take the lead. However, Dallas would find their rhythm from that point, running off seventeen points to take a 17-14 lead into intermission. The second half though, belonged to the hosts, as Hurts moved the ball through the air at will, connecting with (Receivers) A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith for touchdowns in the third quarter. On the flipside, the visitors threatened again and again, but were turned away on fourth down twice, before fumbling away the football on their final possession deep into Philly territory. In the end, the home side was outgained by 114 yards on the day, though managed to make timely plays when they had to, stopping the Cowboys on fourth down twice, and put consistent heat on Dak Prescott, sacking him on five occasions. As for Hurts, he completed 17-of-23 passes for 207 yards and those two touchdowns, while rushing for another thirty-six yards and a score on ten carries. Six different players logged a sack, led by (veteran Edge-Rusher) Brandon Graham with 1.5 sacks and a pair of pressures.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles may own the league’s best record at 8-1, but it has been a far different story against the spread, where they have covered five of their nine games to this point (5-2-2 ATS). In fact, Philadelphia has alternated covers and non-covers all season, with a narrow win in that regard in that victory over the Cowboys, in which they were favored by 3.5 points. Furthermore, Sirianni’s troops are 0-3-2 versus the spread in their last five games following a win of that variety. Dating back to last season, this is a team that 5-3-2 against the spread in their last ten games overall (including playoffs), while posting a 4-5-1 mark in their past ten trips away from the City of Brotherly Love. With that said, they have covered three of their last five road games (3-1-1 ATS), though the fact that they have been branded an underdog in this particular matchup should sound the alarm bells across the betting community. Simply put, these birds have been a very poor play when receiving points from the oddsmakers, covering just TWO of their last ten such contests, which includes a 5-game losing streak against the spread. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams have met on just four occasions over the last decade, which has coincidentally been dominated by the Chiefs, who have beaten and covered against the Eagles each time. In fact, the last time that Philly has won or covered against Kansas City was in 2009! Under Sirianni’s leadership, they are 0-2 in two tries against Mahomes & Co, which includes that narrow 35-38 defeat in last February’s Super Bowl. Philadelphia 24-14 at halftime in that affair, only to see their lead slowly fade away, with their pass-rush unable to get enough heat on Mahomes, who made pay after play down the stretch. In two meetings, Hurts has played very well in completing 68.6% of his throws for an average of 345.5 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, while rushing for another 58.5 yards per game and three more scores. However, he lost what turned out to be a crucial fumble midway through the second quarter of Super Bowl LVII, that was returned for a touchdown to tie the game. On the injury front, Hurts is listed as probable with a sore knee sustained in that win over Dallas two weeks ago, though the same cannot be said of (veteran Edge-Rusher) Derek Barnett (personal reasons), (Sophomore Linebacker) Nakobe Dean (foot) and (veteran Tight End) Dallas Goedert (arm). Looking ahead, the schedule doesn’t let up for the reigning NFC Champions, who will return to Lincoln Financial Field for tough tests against the Bills and 49ers, before hitting the road for the second leg of their annual battle with the Cowboys, this time from AT&T Stadium.
Meanwhile, the more things change, the more they seem to stay the same for the Chiefs (7-2, 1st in AFC West), who have nonetheless mastered the art of turning over their roster while competing for championships. Indeed, threading that needle is one of the hardest things to do in sports, though (Head Coach) Andy Reid and (General Manager) Brett Veach are making it look easy. Since winning Super Bowl LIV four years ago, there aren’t many familiar faces on this roster, save for that of (two-time MVP Quarterback) Patrick Mahomes and (perennial All-Pro Tight End) Travis Kelce, though the results have been remarkably similar despite all of that change. Barring a major injury to key personnel, it appears that the Chiefs are well on their way to winning an EIGHTH consecutive division title, the while it would be easy to lay all the credit at the feet of Mahomes (pictured below), the biggest reason for their sustained success this Fall has been the play of their defense. Ever since Reid convinced longtime associate (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo to come to Arrowhead, this has been one of the better units in the league, with his trademark man coverage and exotic pressure packages causing havoc for opponents trying to keep up with their high-powered attack. This season, Kansas City has yielded just 15.9 points per game (2nd Overall) on 288.2 total yards (4th Overall), including 176.0 yards against the pass (4th Overall) on 4.9 net yards per attempt (3rd Overall), along with 112.2 yards against the run (17th Overall) on 4.5 yards per carry (29th Overall), while forcing thirteen turnovers (15th Overall), and yielding a 36.5% success rate on third down (12th Overall) and 54.2% in the red zone (18th Overall). They have relegated five opponents below 300 total yards, including three of their last four, with the most notable being the prolific Dolphins, whom they defeated in a 21-14 affair two weeks ago in Frankfurt, Germany. Coming into that matchup, Miami had ranked first across the board offensively by a wide margin, with (former Chiefs Wideout) Tyreek Hill particularly eager to pay back his former employers. However, what by all accounts should have been a track meet turned into a defensive struggle, one that the Chiefs were equipped to come out of on top. The first half was all Kansas City, folks, as Reid’s troops marched out to a 21-0 lead by intermission, thanks in large part to a touchdown return by (Sophomore Safety) Bryan Cook shortly before halftime. Ironically, it was Hill who lost the football, catching a short pass behind the line of scrimmage deep into enemy territory, and coughing up the rock while he was tackled and stood up by (young Cornerback) Trent McDuffie. (Veteran Cornerback) Mike Edwards picked it up and lateraled it to Cook, who raced fifty-nine yards for the score. At halftime, the reigning champs shutout their opponent and outgained them 200-100. While the Dolphins would cut the deficit to seven points in the second half, Spagnuolo’s unit stiffened when they needed to, halting their opponent at the 31-yard line as Tua Tagovailoa lost the football on the snap, turning it over on downs to effectively end the game. In the end, both teams failed to pass the 300-yard threshold, while combining for just six third down conversions between them. KC relegated Miami to a season-low 292 total yards, with Tagovailoa limited to 193 yards on 21-of-34 passing, while Hill finished with a modest sixty-two yards on eight receptions and that crucial fumble. As for Mahomes, he completed 20-of-30 passes for 185 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while rushing for another twenty-four yards on six carries, though he also lost a fumble along the way. Nine different players caught a pass from the reigning MVP, with (veteran Tailback) Jerrick McKinnon and (Rookie Receiver) Rashee Rice hauling in scores.
From a betting perspective, the Chiefs are 7-2 straight-up and 6-3 against the spread thus far, proving that they are capable of stringing together multiple covers after failing to do so. Kansas City opened the campaign with losses on both fronts in their opener against Detroit (+4), though rebounded with back-to-back victories over Jacksonville (+3) and Chicago (+12.5), before capturing a narrow win over the Jets (+8), whom they bested by a field goal. From there, Reid’s troops won and covered three consecutive outings, before a turnover-fest in Denver (+7), which saw them suffer their second outright defeat of the campaign. As it turned out, a trip abroad to Frankfurt would prove to be the remedy for their woes, as Mahomes & Co downed Miami (-0.5) in that aforementioned showdown two weeks ago, which marked the first time that they were branded underdogs by the oddsmakers since last February’s Super Bowl. Dating back to last season, this is a team that is a stellar 7-3 against the spread over their last ten games overall (including playoffs), while posting a 6-4 mark in their past ten contests at Arrowhead. The Chiefs have however, covered four consecutive home games, while riding a streak of four straight covers versus opponents with winning records. As we stated earlier, Kansas City has owned this series over the past decade, with four outright wins and covers since 2013, though if we look back even further than that, the appropriate statement is that Reid has DOMINATED this matchup. Of course, Big Red has coached both teams over the course of his illustrious career, with whatever side he has coached winning and covering EVERY affair (7-0 SU/ATS)! And speaking of Reid, one of the most consistent locks in the realm of sports handicapping is the 65-year-old’s mastery of the bye week; between the regular season and playoffs, his teams are a staggering 29-6 straight-up and a mouth-watering 22-13 against the spread when coming off a bye, which equates to win percentages of .828 and .629. Simply put, you could stand to make some money with figures of that nature, folks. Getting back to this matchup, Mahomes’ brilliance helped Kansas City to overcome an Eagles side that outgained them by seventy-seven yards and possessed the football for 35:47, with the 2022 MVP completing 21-of-27 passes for 182 yards and three touchdowns, while mustering a crucial 26-yard scramble from Philadelphia’s 43-yard line (on a bum ankle to boot) to set up Harrison Butker’s game-winning field goal. On the injury front, these Chiefs are largely healthy coming off the bye, though the lone absence is a notable one: (young Linebacker) Nick Bolton, who took that aforementioned Hurts’ fumble into the end zone in Super Bowl LVII, isn’t expected to return to action until late December after undergoing surgery to repair a broken wrist. Looking ahead, Kansas City will hit the road to Las Vegas and Green Bay in the coming weeks, before returning home to host Buffalo in a potential postseason preview.