8:20 PM EST, NBC – Line: 49ers -6.5, Over/Under: 43.0
Happy Thanksgiving from everyone here at Oracle Sports, and we’re going to end the holiday right with a primetime showdown in the Pacific Northwest, as the Seattle Seahawks battle the San Francisco 49ers for control of the NFC West. After suffering through a season-worst three-game losing streak earlier this month, it appears that the 49ers (7-3, 1st in NFC West) have indeed righted the proverbial ship, winning back-to-back games in successive weeks in a relatively comfortable manner. First, they traveled cross country to Northern Florida where they dominated the Jaguars in a 34-3 that saw them outgain the hosts by a whopping 216 total yards and feast off of four takeaways. Then, in last weekend’s 27-14 thumping of the Buccaneers back in Santa Clara, they once again proved to be significantly better than their opponent, owning a 420-287 advantage in total yardage, while winning the turnover battle with ease (+2). So, what in the name of Dwight Clark has gotten into these Niners, you ask? Well, in the simplest of explanations, they finally got healthy. On paper, San Francisco possesses one of the most complete rosters in the NFL, littered with high-end talent at a variety of positions, backed by (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan, who’s offensive playcalling has proven to elevate them greater than the sum of their parts. However, if there is one weakness to be found, it is that there isn’t a lot of depth behind their playmakers, which had been exploited during that three-game skid as the likes of (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Deebo Samuel, (Pro-Bowl Left Tackle) Trent Williams, and (All-Pro Tailback) Christian McCaffrey all either missed time due to respective injuries or were at the very least affected by some malady along the way. Without arguably the most formidable supporting cast in the league, (Sophomore Quarterback) Brok Purdy looked mortal for the first time since ascending to the starting role late last season; the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft turned into a turnover machine in losses to the Browns (17-19), Vikings (17-22), and Bengals (17-31), tossing FIVE interceptions and losing a fumble during that stretch, which saw his team lose the that all-important metric 7-4. Thankfully the bye week arrived for the 49ers to get healthy, and now that they have returned to full strength, they have begun to reassert their dominance over the opposition. Against Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, they outscored the Floridan sides by an average of 22.0 points per game, outgained them by a margin of 174.5 yards, and flipped the script on the turnovers, forcing SIX and committing ZERO. This efficiency has been characterized with the play of Purdy (pictured below), who during this latest run has completed a surgical 40-of-51 passes for 629 yards and SIX touchdowns with nary an interception to speak of. Simply put, when this unit is clocking in this manner, they are extremely difficult to handle, as Tampa found out in last weekend’s affair at Levi’s Stadium. The hosts started quickly with ten unanswered points, highlighted by a short touchdown toss from Purdy to McCaffrey to open their ledger. The Bucs would breach the end zone in the second quarter to cut the deficit to three points but were powerless to halt San Fran’s progress from that point, as Shanahan’s troops seventeen consecutive points to take a 20-point lead into the final stanza. The visitors would eventually hit paydirt, though they proved unable of earning any more than that as the Niners turned them away twice on fourth down, bookending an interception of Baker Mayfield by (Rookie Safety) Ji’Ayir Brown in the end zone. When it was all said and done, Purdy connected on 21-of-25 passes for 333 yards and three touchdowns, with McCaffrey accounting for 103 yards from scrimmage and that receiving score on twenty-six touches. (Young Receiver) Brandon Aiyuk and (veteran Tight End) George Kittle hauled in the other two touchdown passes, with the former leading the team with 156 yards on just five receptions and the latter reeling in eight catches for eighty-nine yards of his own. (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Wilks’ unit did a stellar job of pressuring Mayfield, who hasn’t seen much throughout the first half of the campaign, logging four sacks, eight hits, and nine pressures. (Young Edge-Rusher) Chase Young, whom Shanahan and (General Manager) John Lynch acquired at the trade deadline from Washington, made quite the impact with two tackles, a sack, and a pressure in forty-eight snaps. Opposite (reigning Defensive Player of the Year) Nick Bosa, the former second overall pick int he 2020 NFL Draft makes an already formidable Defensive Line all the more fearsome, particularly as they find themselves playing with the lead.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers may be 7-3 straight-up, but it has been a different story against the spread thus far, where they have covered five of their ten games (5-4-1 ATS). With that being said, they have managed to bounce back from the three-game losing skid that came across more like a midlife crisis, now having won each of their last two contests outright. However, as they have returned to full strength, San Francisco has returned to the realm of sizeable favorites once again, which was the case in last weekend’s victory over Tampa Bay (+13.5). That affair marked the fourth time this Fall in which they have been favored by 9.5+ points, failing to cover each of the last two instances. Dating back to last season, the Niners are 5-4-1 against the spread in their last ten trips away from Santa Clara, while mirroring that mark in their past ten outings in which they have been favored by the oddsmakers. In fact, Shanahan’s troops have failed to cover FOUR consecutive games as a road favorite between 3.5-10.0 points, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, San Fran won and covered all three of their encounters with Seattle last season, including a 41-23 thumping on Wild Card Weekend. That trifecta snapped a streak of four straight outright victories for the Seahawks, who covered the spread in three of those confrontations. When they last met in that aforementioned postseason blowout, the affair was remarkably close at halftime as the birds actually clung to a 17-16 lead heading into intermission. However, it was all 49ers in the second half, as the hosts ran off TWENTY-FIVE unanswered points to advance to the next round of the playoffs. In the end, the home side rung up 505 total yards as Purdy had the game of his life with 332 yards passing, four total touchdowns, and even a 2-point conversion to boot. McCaffrey dominated as well, totaling 136 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns, while Samuel hauled in six passes for 133 yards and a score of his own on eight targets. On the injury front, (veteran Defensive Tackle) Javon Hargrave is listed as questionable for this quick turnaround with an ailing thumb, though the situation is more dire for (Pro-Bowl Safety) Talanoa Hufanga, who will miss the remainder of the campaign with a torn ACL. Losing the third-year Defensive Back is a real blow to this defense, for he looked well on his way towards earning his second consecutive Pro-Bowl nod with three interceptions through the first ten games. Looking ahead, San Francisco will be happy to enjoy a few more days of rest in preparation for what figures to be a seismic NFC Title Game rematch with Philadelphia, which will once again take place at Lincoln Financial Field in ten days’ time. After that, Shanahan & Co will return to Levi’s Stadium for the second leg of this annual series with Seattle, before finishing the schedule with (at) Arizona, Baltimore, (at) Washington, and Los Angeles (Rams).
Meanwhile, despite sitting just one game behind their division rivals for first in the NFC West, it is hard not to feel like the Seahawks (6-4, 2nd in NFC West) wasted their opportunity to take advantage of the Niners’ struggles and build a comfortable cushion between them in the standings. When San Francisco fell into their malaise, Seattle was coming out of their own bye week at 3-1 having won three consecutive games in a row and sitting one game out of the division lead. However, as the 49ers spiraled to three consecutive defeats, (Head Coach) Pete Carroll’s troops managed to split their next four games, with losses at Cincinnati (14-17) and Baltimore (3-37) bookending close calls against Arizona (20-10) and Cleveland (24-20). Even with that being said, they had opportunity after opportunity to make a move in the past two weeks, though avoided a collapse at home against Washington (29-26) before actually collapsing in last Sunday’s 16-17 defeat at Los Angeles, which saw them blow a 13-0 lead. So, what in the name of Steve Largent is going on in the Pacific Northwest, you ask? Well, there are a number of factors that have resulted in the hand that these birds have been dealt, with the first being their strength of schedule. Prior to tonight’s date with San Francisco, they had faced only one opponent over .500 through the first seven weeks, allowing them to build a solid 4-2 record. However, since then they have faced two winning teams in the last four games alone, with their remaining schedule (more on that in a bit) looking particularly arduous over the next month. Second, injuries have really kept this team from reaching their potential on both sides of the football. The Offensive Line has been without both of its starting Tackles for much of the campaign, with (Sophomore Left Tackle) Charles Cross returning from a 4-week absence back in mid-October, while (fellow Sophomore) Abraham Lucas has yet to return after suffering a knee injury in the season opener. Simply put, this has really hindered the consistency of a unit that wasn’t the most consistent to begin with; (Offensive Coordinator) Shane Waldron isn’t the most imaginative playcaller in the first place, but with absences up front they have struggled mightily to sustain drives, converting just 31.7% of their third downs (30th Overall) and posting a wanting red zone percentage of 48.6% (22nd Overall). After earning Comeback Player of the Year honors last season, (veteran Quarterback) Geno Smith hasn’t been quite as effective this Fall, completing 65.3% of his passes (down from an NFL-best 69.8%) with twelve touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions after posting a 30-12 TD-INT Ratio in 2022. In fact, turnovers have become a lingering issue for the Seahawks, who after committing just one through the first four contests, have shipped TEN in the last six outings parlaying into a differential of -2 during that stretch. All of these issues came into play in last weekend’s disappointing loss at the Rams, which came after the visitors raced out to what was thought to be a commanding 13-point lead. Things started quickly for Carroll’s side, who kicked off the afternoon with a 14-play, 88-yard drive culminating in a short touchdown toss from Smith to (veteran Wideout) D.K. Metcalf. However, despite forcing a three-and-out and engineering a 15-play sequence on their next possession, Seattle was nonetheless forced to settle for a 54-yard field goal courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Jason Meyers, who would drain another three points on the next drive as well. Unfortunately, that would be about it for the birds, who could muster just seventy-seven yards of offense in the second half, as the hosts rallied back to retake the lead with under two minutes left following an interception of (Backup QB) Drew Locke, who briefly replaced an injured Smith. With an opportunity to salvage the victory, Smith & Co marched to their opponent’s 37-yard line, setting up Meyers for the potential winner from 50+ yards, only for this attempt to fall short of its target, effectively ending the game. When it was all said and done, the Seahawks finished with 291 total yards on sixteen first downs, rushed for only sixty-eight yards on twenty-one carries, converted a disappointing 5-of-15 third downs, and were flagged TWELVE times for a whopping 130 yards in penalties as they were swept by the Rams in the season series. Smith carried the attack in completing 22-of-34 passes for 233 yards and that opening score, though concerns over his throwing arm arose after he was forced to leave the game int he fourth quarter. With that being said, he wasn’t the only playmaker on this offense that was knocked out action, as (Sophomore Tailback) Kenneth Walker III exited early in the first quarter due to what has been described a strained oblique muscle, leaving the status of both he and his Quarterback up in the air for this crucial division clash with the Niners.
From a betting perspective, the Seahawks may be 6-4 straight-up thus far, but they have been marginally worse against the spread (5-4-1 ATS), particularly of late with just two covers in their last six outings. With that said, they did manage to cover as 2-point underdogs in last weekend’s loss at the Rams, who rallied to capture that one-point win that we covered earlier. For what it is worth, this biggest underdog that Seattle has been this Fall, while also marking the first time since last season that they’ve been a dog at Lumen Field. Dating back to last year, Carroll’s troops are just 3-6-1 against the spread in their last ten games contested in the Pacific Northwest, while posting a 4-6 mark in that regard in their past ten tilts as an underdog. Looking at this particular matchup, these birds simply could not solve the riddle that was the Niners’ last year, dropping all THREE of their meetings both straight-up and against the spread. We covered their most recent affair with that drubbing in the NFC Wild Card, but the last time that the ‘Hawks hosted their division rivals it was much closer contest. A midweek primetime affair as well, the home side fell behind after a disappointing start (3-14 at halftime), though finally managed to find a rhythm in the second half, where they cut the lead to eight points with under four minutes to play. Unfortunately, they couldn’t get the ball back as the visitors broke through for a crushing 55-yard run on a 3rd-and-2 from their own 43-yard line to effectively end the game. Seattle struggled mightily offensively, amassing just 277 total yards as Smith carried the unit with 238 yards and a touchdown on 31-of-44 passing. In those three encounters, Smith completed an efficient 73.3% of his passes for 229.3 yards per game, though logged just 5.64 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns opposed to two interceptions, while taking eight sacks and losing a fumble. On the injury front, there are a number of players to keep on, folks, including Smith, who has yet to practice this week a sore throwing elbow. The veteran was removed from action at one point in last weekend’s tilt, though toughed it out after returning to the gridiron. However, Walker III is unlikely to appear in this one, as he has yet to practice this week, with Carroll likely to shelve his leading rusher until after the mini-bye week. As for the aforementioned Lucas, he will miss his tenth consecutive contest due to a knee injury suffered back in the opener, which was coincidentally also against the Rams. The Offensive Line has been a major issue for Carroll & Co thus far, and with just two weeks left to return to action, it is anyone’s guess as to when Lucas will do so. Looking ahead, tonight’s affair marks the beginning of a burning crucible for the Seahawks, who will face the Cowboys, Niners, and Eagles in successive weeks, which means they could very well be on the outside looking in at 6-8 before Christmas, which would be a major letdown for a team that owned a share of first place int he NFC West a week ago.