3:00 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Dolphins -10.0, Over/Under: 41.0
If you didn’t get enough football on Thanksgiving, there is another helping today as the NFL takes over Black Friday with an AFC East matchup featuring the struggling New York Jets hosting the high-powered Miami Dolphins from MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands. Through the first half of the campaign, you would be hard-pressed to find a team more entertaining week in and week out than the Dolphins (7-3, 1st in AFC East), who with ten games in the books have been the most prolific attack in the NFL by a wide margin. Thus far, Miami leads the league in points scored (30.5), total offense (443.1), passing yards (300.1), passing touchdowns (22), yards per rush (5.6), and red zone percentage (73.5%). Year Two under (Head Coach) Mike McDaniel has seen this unit take it to another level thanks in large part to the plethora of speed that they have at the skill positions. You could argue that these ‘Fins have not one, not two, not three, but FOUR of the five fastest players in the league, with McDaniel enjoying the luxury of fielding them all at the same time. (Veteran Tailback) Raheem Mostert and his rookie understudy, De’Von Achane (more on him shortly) are home runs waiting to happen, capable of taking the handoff or a short screen pass to the house on any given play. Mostert, who was with McDaniel in San Francisco, is averaging a career-high 69.1 yards per game on 5.3 yards per attempt, while racking up a league-best ELEVEN rushing touchdowns. (Fourth-year Quarterback) Tua Tagovailoa, who won’t be running away from anyone, has put these weapons to good use; smooth and accurate, the lefty has completed 69.7% of his throws for 2,934 yards on 7.87 net yards per attempt, twenty-one touchdowns in comparison to eight interceptions, with a QBR of 61.7. However, while those are certainly MVP-caliber numbers, the clear MVP of this team, and perhaps the NFL at large, is (perennial All-Pro Wideout) Tyreek Hill, who has been on an absolute tear this Fall. A year after posting career-highs in receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,710), the Cheetah has been on a mission to reach even higher, leading the league with 1,222 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, matching last year’s total in just ten games. In fact, no player in history has posted as many yards through that many games as Hill (pictured below), who’s vertical speed is the engine that makes this unit go. With the 29-year-old routinely dragging coverage and Safety assistance wherever he roams, his presence creates swaths of space for his teammates exploit, which really becomes an advantage as McDaniel incorporates the multitude of pre-snap motion that he has become known for. However, if this team is to truly contend for their first Lombardi Trophy since 1973, then they will need to see more growth from their defense, which now finds itself under the stewardship of (Defensive Coordinator) Vic Fangio. One of the most revered defensive minds in the league, Fangio coming to South Beach was viewed as a major coup for McDaniel & Co, and while it has been a slower burn than anyone would have preferred, these Dolphins are showing signs of reaching their potential on this side of the football; over the last three games, they have relegated their opponents to an average of 17.0 points on 260.3 total yards, while forcing five turnovers along the way. Hell, they logged THREE takeaways in last weekend’s 20-13 victory over the suddenly feisty Raiders, and they needed every single one of them in an affair that was much closer than many thought it would. Despite outgaining Las Vegas by 126 yards, Miami struggled to take care of the football, committing three turnovers of their own and converting a combined 3-of-12 on third and fourth down. However, Fangio’s defense saved the day with THREE interceptions of (Rookie QB) Aidan O’Connell, all of which came in the second half, including successive picks on the final two drives of the afternoon. First, (veteran Cornerback) Jalen Ramsey intercepted O’Connell at midfield early in the third quarter, before (young Edge-Rusher) Jaelan Phillips got one of his own dropping into coverage on his own 33-yard line. Lastly, Ramsey got back into the action with an interception on the final pass of the game, coming up with the football in the end zone. Acquired via offseason trade with the Rams, the three-time All-Pro missed the first seven games of the season after undergoing knee surgery over the summer, only to become a magnet for the football of late, logging three picks in as many games. It must be reassuring that the defense is proving capable of carrying the weight in the event that the offense has an off day, which is crucial as the calendar transitions to December and the weather outside South Beach promises to be unforgiving.
From a betting perspective, the Dolphins may be 7-3 against the spread thus far, but they have been marginally worse against the spread, covering six of their ten games to this point. After winning and covering five of their first six outings of the campaign, Miami has since fallen to the opposite end of the pendulum, covering only one of their last outings. McDaniel’s troops managed to thread the proverbial needle in that regard in last weekend’s narrow victory over the Raiders, winning the game outright but failing to cover a sizeable 14-point spread. Today’s trip to the Meadowlands will mark the fourth time this Fall in which they have been favored by at least ten points and the first time that they’ve been so on the road, which is a direct reflection of the QB situation that their opponent is dealing with. Dating back to last season, this is a team that is a middling 5-5 against the spread in their past ten trips away from Hard Rock Stadium, though they are 6-4 in that regard in their last ten as a favorite. These ‘Fins have generally handled their business against weaker opponents, covering seven straight games against sub-.500 teams, while also bouncing back nicely from a non-cover, posting a 5-1 mark versus the spread following such a contest. Looking at this particular matchup, Tagovailoa & Co have routinely gotten the better of Gang Green, winning five of the last six encounters straight-up, covering all but one in the process, though they did split their two tilts from last Fall. Tagovailoa missed the first leg of their annual series as the Dolphins were ran right out of MetLife Stadium in a 17-40 loss, though they would have their revenge in the regular season finale on South beach, where the hosts gutted out an 11-6 victory, once again without their starting QB. By now, we all know that Tua has missed quite a few games during his career, though he has played well against the Jets when he’s been healthy enough to suit up; Tagovailoa has won all three starts, completing a surgical 72.5% of his throws for an average of 159.3 yards on 7.71 net yards per attempt, with four touchdowns opposed to three interceptions. With a Backup throwing to him in both outings, you could imagine that Hill underperformed against what was and continues to be a tough Jets defense, with the All-Pro hauling in nine receptions on a dozen targets for just seventy yards, which equates to a relatively pedestrian 7.78 yards per catch. On the injury front, it will be interesting to see how much (if at all) that (Rookie Tailback) De’Von Achane plays in this one, for he logged only three snaps before departing with a knee injury in his first game after being activated from injured reserve. Explosive doesn’t begin to describe this kid, who in the three games in which he was healthy AVERAGED 151.7 rushing yards on an insane 12.3 yards per carry! Officially, Achane is listed as questionable to participate in this afternoon’s clash with New York and given his health history he very well may be held out of action as precaution for this short turnaround. Looking ahead, today’s tilt begins a stretch in which the Dolphins can really create some space between themselves and the rest of the division for the schedule remaining ahead of them is far from dauting; Miami faces New York twice bookending matchups against (at) Washington and Tennessee, which could very well see them sitting comfortably at 11-3 before a brutal three-game run to end the regular season against Dallas, (at) Baltimore, and Buffalo.
Meanwhile, my oh my, what a disappointing season it has been for the Jets (4-6, 3rd in AFC East), who came into this Fall with expectations about as high as the Empire State Building. Of course, New York made waves across the sporting world with their acquisition of (four-time MVP Quarterback) Aaron Rodgers in a trade with Green Bay, bringing one of the greatest QBs of any era to the Big Apple in pursuit of the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy since 1968. After years of underwhelming play at the most important position in the sport, Gang Green was supposed to turn the page with Rodgers in town, and with the hype machine operating at nuclear levels coming into the season opener, everything came to a halt as the future Hall-of-Famer tore his Achilles on the third play of the game. Needless to say, this isn’t how this season was supposed to play out, folks. After watching (former second overall pick) Zach Wilson stink it up for two years, he wasn’t supposed to take over as the starter once again and struggle his way through the first ten games. The Offensive Line was supposed to be healthy this Fall after playing a role in the young QB’s struggles, but that hasn’t been the case either with a plethora of starters spending time on injured reserve (more on that shortly). The Defense was supposed to be dominant, thanks in large part to no longer being stranded on the field because the offense couldn’t string together successive first downs, but that notion has gone out the proverbial window too. Basically, if these Jets have taught us anything, it is that nothing is promised in the NFL, with the much-debated script oftentimes going off the rails. What we’ve seen over the last three months has been similar to what we’ve seen over the last two years, as New York’s Offense has once again failed to take flight; through ten games, this unit ranks thirtieth in points scored (15.0), total yards (299.3), passing yards (199.5), net yards per pass (4.5), and rushing scores (3), while sitting dead-last in third down percentage (22.9%) and red zone percentage (26.1%). Wilson has been downright bad, completing just 59.2% of his throws for 1,944 yards on 4.66 net yards per attempt, with a league low SIX touchdowns in comparison to seven interceptions, en route to posting a QBR of 31.0, which is actually 7.5 points lower than last Fall. We get it, folks. Wilson was never supposed to be the starter this season, but there that word is again. SUPPOSED. Mercifully, the ineptitude came to an end in last weekend’s 6-32 drubbing at the Bills, in which the visitors could muster a scant 155 total yards on fourteen first downs, which saw them go 0-of-11 on third down (though 4-of-5 on fourth) and commit FOUR turnovers, while possessing the football for a mere 23:09 of game time. With the defense doing its part early in holding Buffalo to field goals on their first three drives, Wilson & Co could never settle into a rhythm, with the youngster eventually benched after completing just 7-of-15 passes for eighty-one yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Replacing him was the unheralded Tim Boyle, who really didn’t handle things any better, connecting on 7-of-14 attempts for thirty-three yards and an interception. With that being said, (Head Coach) Robert Saleh finally capitulated and stated after the game that Wilson would no longer be the starting Quarterback this season, demoting him to third string, opting to roll with Boyle (pictured below) for the foreseeable future. So, just who in the hell is Tim Boyle, you ask? Well, undrafted out of Eastern Kentucky back in 2019, the 29-year-old has plied his trade for four different teams including the Packers, Lions, and Bears, starting three games in Detroit back in 2021. Appearing in eighteen games over the course of his career, Boyle has completed 60.8% of his passes for 607 yards on 4.80 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns in comparison to nine interceptions. Expect (Offensive Coordinator) Nathaniel Hackett to play it safe with the journeyman, though against Miami’s high-powered attack, he will likely need to make some plays to keep his team in the game. Will he be able to do so? Who the !@#$ knows, folks….
From a betting perspective, the Jets are 4-6 straight-up thus far, though have been marginally more rewarding for those betting on them, posting a 4-5-1 record against the spread through ten games. However, it appears that whatever god vibes that they had been enjoying with three consecutive covers has now gone out the proverbial window, with ZERO covers in their last four outings, including last weekend’s blowout loss in Buffalo in which they proved uncapable of covering as 8.5-point underdogs. Dating back to last season, this is a team that is a mediocre 5-5 against the spread in their last ten tilts at MetLife Stadium, while matching that mark in their past ten contests as an underdog. Saleh’s troops have generally struggled to bounce back after getting blown out, failing to cover four straight games (0-3-1 ATS) after losing by fourteen or more points, which is the case today. Looking at this particular matchup, Gang Green has frequently found themselves on the wrong end in this series of late, winning just once in six meetings dating back to 2020, though they did manage to split their two encounters last Fall. However, as we covered earlier, Tagovailoa missed both of those affairs with two separate concussions, leaving Saleh’s defense frothing at the mouth to take on Skylar Thompson & Co. New York held the Dolphins to a mere 14.0 points and 298.5 total yards in those two confrontations, which was well below the 23.4 points (11th Overall) and 379.5 total yards (6th Overall) that they had averaged on the campaign. Now, we know that this defense is VERY good, but the fact remains that they have yet to face Miami with a healthy Tua executing the plays that McDaniel is calling. (Pro-Bowl Defensive Tackle) Quinnen Williams figures to be a force in this one as he has on many occasions in this series, as the big fella has logged twelve tackles, three for loss, seven QB hits, three sacks, and a forced fumble and recovery apiece. On the injury front, the Offensive Line remains an unmitigated disaster for these Jets, with (starters) Mekhi Becton (ankle), Connor McGovern (knee), Alijah Vera-Tucker (Achilles), and Billy Turner (finger) all out for this afternoon’s contest, while (veteran Tackle) Duane Brown is once again questionable with shoulder/hip maladies. Updates over Rodgers’ return from the partial Achilles tear that he suffered in the opener suggest that the four-time MVP is targeting a mid-December return, though it is difficult envisioning him standing up for long behind this patchwork group of Linemen. Looking ahead, New York faces a pair of winnable games in the coming weeks as they host the Falcons and Texans to round out this three-game homestand, before traveling to South Beach for the second leg of this annual series with Miami. Afterward, the Commanders, Browns, and Patriots await them, which makes for a reasonable remaining schedule, so if there is a time for Gang Green to mount one final rally for the playoffs and actually make a return from Rodgers worth it, then that time is now.