12:00 PM EST, FOX – Line: Michigan -3.5, Over/Under: 47.5
On the final Saturday of the regular season, the college football world will once again be fixated on its greatest rivalry, as the (No. 2) Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Ann Arbor for another titanic clash with the (No. 3) Michigan Wolverines with not only the BIG 10 hanging in the balance, but the playoff fate of both schools as well. Coming into this Fall, Ohio State (11-0, 8-0 in BIG 10) was thought to be embarking on a transition season, or at least what passes for a such a campaign in Columbus, though they have nonetheless outperformed expectations in what has become yet another strong season from (Head Coach) Ryan Day’s troops. With many offensive playmakers leaving for the NFL, the defense was expected to carry this team, and while the Buckeyes have been VERY good on that side of the football in yielding the second-fewest points in the nation (9.3), the steady growth of their teammates on offense has been the story thus far. Make no mistake, this current unit isn’t nearly as prolific as past incarnations, but there is evidence that they are getting there; with eleven games in the books, OSU has averaged 33.6 points per game (24th in FBS) on 429.3 total yards, including 283.7 through the air on 9.0 yards per attempt. Under Day’s watch, this has gradually become a pass-oriented attack, which as approach has not changed with the transition to (Junior Quarterback) Kyle McCord, who has been solid if unspectacular in replacing C.J. Stroud (drafted second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft). Ater patiently waiting for his opportunity behind the two-time Heisman finalist, McCord has completed 66.4% of his passes for 2,899 yards on 9.1 yards per attempt, with twenty-two touchdowns opposed to just four interceptions, while posting an 8-1 TD-INT Ratio over the last three games in particular. Whereas his predecessor was a threat throwing to all levels of the field, McCord (pictured below) has thrived in much more of a game manager type of role, simply distributing the ball to his playmakers in space and letting them do their thing. However, with injuries to (Tailbacks) TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams limiting their output on the ground, the short passing game has in many ways supplemented the rushing attack. Then again, that is just another excuse to feature the sublime talents of (All-American Wideout) Marvin Harrison Jr. even more, with the Junior becoming a bonafide Heisman contender in the process. After totaling seventy-seven receptions for 1,263 yards and fourteen touchdowns last Fall, we knew that MHJ was good, but this season Marvin Sr’s baby boy has taken his play t a whole new level; Harrison is on pace to surpass those thresholds with sixty-two catches, 1,093 yards, and thirteen touchdowns, with those latter two figures leading the BIG 10 and ranking in the top-10 nationally. Granted, when last we saw him, he didn’t need to do much in last weekend’s 37-3 drubbing of Minnesota at the Horseshoe, where the hosts blanked the visitors for the bulk of the affair. Indeed, Day opted to keep the Masarati in the garage in lieu of today’s showdown at the Big House, as the ground game did the talking for Ohio State, who rushed for 215 yards and a pair of scores, both via a healthy Henderson, on thirty-five carries. For a team that hasn’t really ran the ball with the same success that we’ve seen in the past, this season-high in yardage was a welcome sign heading into their trip to Ann Arbor; Henderson plowed through Gophers’ defenders throughout the day, totaling 146 rushing yards on just fifteen attempts, marking his third 100-yard performance in four games since returning from injury. (Junior Receiver) Emeka Egbuka, another underclassman playmaker that has been hampered by injuries this Fall, looked healthy in reeling in five catches for eighty-three yards, while Harrison, who caught just three passes for thirty yards, was responsible for one of McCord’s two touchdowns. Defensively, the Buckeyes smothered the Gophers in an affair in which the visiting side could muster just 159 total yards, including a scant eighty-nine through the air on 11-of-19 passing, with a pair of takeaways courtesy of (Junior Cornerback) Jordan Hancock and (Junior Defensive End) J.T. Tuimoloau. Furthermore, (fellow Edge-Rusher) Jack Sawyer was a nightmare off the flank, logging 3.5 tackles for loss, a sack, and the forced fumble that Tuimoloau recovered.
From a betting perspective, Ohio State may be a perfect 11-0 straight-up but it has been a different story where the spread in concerned (6-3-2 ATS), though that it to be expected from a team that routinely is faced with large lines. Five times have the Buckeyes been favored by more than twenty-seven points, though they have managed to beat such spreads in each of the last two weeks, including that thumping of Minnesota (+27.5). Under the leadership of Day, this is a program that is a solid 33-26-3 against the spread, though they find themselves in a position that is rare air indeed, as OSU will be an underdog in the regular season for the first time since he was promoted back in 2018. Furthermore, they have been a dog on just THREE occasions during that stretch, with each of them coming in the Playoff, where they are 1-2 both straight-up and against the spread. In fact, this is the first time that Ohio State has been received points from the oddsmakers since the 2020 National Championship Game! Looking at this particular matchup, the Buckeyes have won fifteen of the last eighteen meetings (10-8 ATS), but have dropped back-to-back encounters with Big Blue for the first time since the turn of the century (1999-2000). The last time that they traveled to Ann Arbor (-7), they led 10-7 in the second quarter only to ship four touchdowns on the final four possessions of the afternoon en route to a 27-42, their first at Michigan since 2011. The defense really let the Scarlet & Gray down in this one, allowing 487 total yards on the day, including a whopping 297 rushing yards on forty-one carries, as the hosts lineup and shoved the football down their throats. Of those that participated in that affair that are still on the team, the aforementioned Henderson amassed 154 yards from scrimmage and two scores, while (Junior Linebacker) Tommy Eichenberg logged five tackles. In last year’s matchup in Columbus, it was more of the same as the hosts were pummeled in a 23-45 defeat, yielding 530 total yards, 252 of which came via the run. Harrison and Egbuka were stellar in this one, combining for sixteen receptions, 245 yards and a touchdown apiece, with the former hauling in a 43-yard strike right before halftime to cut the deficit to three points. Unfortunately, the second half saw (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Knowles’ unit get trampled once again, shipping touchdown runs of seventy-five and eighty-five yards in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see how a potential third straight defeat to the Wolverines would affect the playoff hopes of these Buckeyes. Currently ranked third overall, there is an argument to be made, just like last Fall, that even with one loss they are worthy of being included in the final four. Of course, a victory will book their trip to the playoff for a second consecutive year.
Meanwhile, in the world of sports, controversy oftentimes leads to two different outcomes. On one hand, it can completely disrupt a team’s momentum and cohesion, leading them to dissolve under the mounting weight of scandal. However, on the other hand, it can galvanize said group and strengthen their resolve, which brings us to Michigan (11-0, 8-0 in BIG 10), who appear to be trending towards the latter end of the pendulum. By now, we should be familiar with the ongoing saga that has surrounded the program, particularly (Head Coach) Jim Harbaugh, and his involvement in the astounding sign-stealing scandal that has dominated the college football headlines over the last month. Long story short, Wolverines assistant coaches have been alleged to have infiltrated opposing coaching staffs in effort to steal their sideline signals, with (former staffer) Connor Stallions, who was photographed alongside Central Michigan coaches earlier in the Fall, resigning from his post over the controversy. Now, we can debate as to how much stealing signs can actually influence the outcome of any given contest, but the result simply is what is: Harbaugh was suspended for the final three games of the regular season, including todays’ seismic showdown with the Buckeyes at the Big House. Now, Michigan is no stranger to performing without the 59-year-old barking orders from the sidelines, as he was already suspended for the first three games of this season due to recruiting infractions stemming from the wild and crazy COVID-19 campaign of 2020. Under the leadership of (Offensive Coordinator/Offensive Line Coach) Sherrone Moore, Big Blue rolled through that early slate with ease and have thus run through their last two opponents with Harbaugh barred from the sideline, besting (No. 11) Penn State in a defensive struggle (24-15) before escaping upset at the hands of Maryland last weekend, earning a hard-fought 31-24 victory in College Park. Despite racing out to an early 23-3 lead on the strength of a crazy 2:19 sequence consisting of a short touchdown run from (Junior Tailback) Blake Corum, followed by a 21-yard fumble return to the house and then a safety, the visitors missed a golden opportunity to deliver a kill shot just before halftime, as (Junior Quarterback) J.J. McCarthy was picked off in the end zone despite operating from the within the 10-yard line. After intermission, it appeared that the wind had been taken out of their proverbial sails, as the Terrapins would cut the deficit to five points at the end of the third quarter, though fortunately for everyone in Maise & Blue, the only score the rest of the way would be another safety from the Wolverines. In the end, the difference in the game was Michigan outrushing the Terps 150-15, even if UMD managed to score on three QB sneaks at the goal line. Turnovers also played a role in this one, as Taulia Tagovailoa was intercepted twice, both by (Senior Cornerback) Mike Sainristil, while (Senior Linebacker) Michael Barrett strip-sacked the QB with the recovery coming from (Sophomore Defensive End) Derrick Moore. Offensively, it was a tough day at the office for McCarthy (pictured below), who completed just 12-of-23 passes for a meager 141 yards and that interception, missing on a number of attempts within the red zone. In being limited to just 291 total yards, it was the second consecutive contest in which the Wolverines were held below the 300-yard threshold, with the passing game struggling against two of the better defenses within the BIG 10. Make no mistake, McCarthy has improved greatly as a passer this Fall, but there are few teams in the country that can overcome such a performance at QB like Michigan can. Corum churned out ninety-four yards and a pair scores in this one, while (fellow Tailback) Donovan Edwards added another thirty-nine yards on eleven attempts.
From a betting perspective, Michigan is also unbeaten at 11-0, but they too have been a different story as far as the spread is concerned (5-5-1 ATS), thanks to a series of hefty lines. Eight of their eleven games have featured spreads of 20+ points, in which they have covered just three such outings. With that being said, much has been made of their performance thus far under Moore in place of the suspended Harbaugh, with the assistant coach covering only ONE of the five games that he has presided over this Fall. For what it is worth, this is a program that is a middling 54-53-3 against the spread since Harbaugh returned to Ann Arbor back in 2015, including a 26-25-2 in that regard at the Big House. After failing to defeat Ohio State in his first six tries, his troops have won and covered each of the last two encounters by a combined FORTY-SIX points, both of which as an underdog to boot. Speaking of dogs, the underdog is 6-1 against the spread in this series over the last seven years, with three outright upsets in the past four meetings. As we covered earlier, the common denominator in the Wolverines’ two victories has been their ability to pound the rock against the Buckeyes, particularly in the second halves where they have beaten their bitter rivals into submission. Between the 2021 and 2022 affairs, Big Blue has averaged 274.5 rushing yards on a healthy 7.2 yards per carry, with NINE touchdowns along the way. Corum, who missed most of last year’s confrontation due to injury, watched Edwards explode for 216 yards and two touchdowns of seventy-five and eighty-five yards. As for McCarthy, who started in that trip to Columbus after logging some garbage time reps back in 2021, he tossed three touchdowns and rushed for another in the 45-23 triumph that booked their trip to a second consecutive BIG 10 Title Game. On the injury front, (Junior Wideout) Roman Wilson is listed as probable after exiting last weekend’s tilt at Maryland with an unspecified ailment. Wilson leads the Wolverines in receptions (37), receiving yards (612), and touchdowns (10) this season, while proving to be McCarthy’s favored target downfield, logging a healthy 16.5 yards per catch. Looking ahead, Michigan finds themselves in the same predicament as their opponent this afternoon, for while a win would book their trip to a third straight BIG 10 Championship Game and in all likelihood a third consecutive appearance in the Playoff, a loss could also see them land a spot within the final four, pending the outcome of the Pac-12 and ACC Championship Games featuring (No. 4) Washington/ (No. 6) Oregon and (No. 5) Florida State/ (No. 9) Louisville next weekend.