1:00 PM EST, CBS – Line: Jaguars -1.5, Over/Under: 47.5
One of the great things about sports is that a game that may not have looked appealing at the beginning of the season could very well end up being a pivotal matchup, which brings us to Houston where the young Texans continue to punch above their weight class as they host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second leg of their annual series. After finishing with the worst record in the NFL in consecutive seasons, the Jaguars (7-3, 1st in AFC South) hit the reset button and brought in (Head Coach) Doug Pederson to resuscitate a franchise that had languished on life support for the bulk of a decade. Though they got off to a very slow start last Fall, the proverbial light bulb came on about midway through the campaign, as Jacksonville built up a head of steam down the stretch, capturing their first division title (followed by one of the most improbable postseason victories in league history) since 2017. Now, they have gone from being the hunters to being the hunted within their own division, though in comparison to the myriad of other contenders in the AFC, it appears that these Jags are still a ways away from reaching their potential. It is easy to forget that this is still one of the youngest teams in the NFL, even if they possess a wealth of high-end talent. With ten games in the books, Pederson’s troops rank eleventh in both points scored (23.0) and allowed (20.4), sixteenth in total offense (349.5) and twentieth in total defense (341.4). There are things they do very well, while there are things that… well, not so much. Let’s start with the positives, shall we? These cats have been excellent in defending the run in yielding just 87.0 yards per game (4th Overall) on 3.9 yards per carry (9th Overall), while proving to be a real pain in the !@# on third down (33.8%) and in the red zone (46.9%), where they rank second and eighth respectively. Furthermore, no team in the league has logged more takeaways than (Defensive Coordinator) Mike Caldwell’s unit, with TWENTY, including seventeen in their seven victories (+7). However, the Jaguars have also left us wanting on the offensive side of the football, committing seventeen turnovers themselves (23rd Overall), while converting just 35.1% of their third downs (24th Overall) and 46.4% of their trips into the red zone (28th Overall). Also, despite their borderline dominance against the run, they’ve been far more generous versus the pass, shipping the fourth-most passing yards (254.4) along with sixteen scores through the air (24th Overall). (Third-year Quarterback) Trevor Lawrence has served as a microcosm for this team, in the sense that while he looks imposing and is capable of putting together very impressive displays, the consistency simply isn’t quite there yet. We have a tendency to proclaim that a player or team has “arrived” prematurely, which is in all likelihood the case with this group, particularly Lawrence (pictured below), who came into the league with the loftiest of expectations. Standing 6-6, 220 pounds and possessing a strong arm and plenty of athleticism, the 24-year-old has more than an ideal frame for the position, and as one of the most decorated QBs in college football history, his body of work made him one of the highest-graded prospects at his position in over a decade. However, his rookie campaign was ruined by the ineptitude of (former HC) Urban Meyer, leaving Pederson to basically rebuild him from scratch last Fall. Now in year three (though it is really year two), Lawrence hasn’t quite made that leap that was expected. Sure, he has improved his completion percentage (68.1%) and passer rating (60.2), both which are career-highs, though he has tossed just eleven touchdown passes opposed to six interceptions, while suffering far more pressure than he did a year ago. This has been the key, folks, for after suffering a sack percentage of 4.4% in 2022, the Pro-Bowler has been dropped on 7.0% of his drop backs thus far, with his pressure percentage rising from 17.5% (111) to 21.0% (81). Granted, a lingering knee injury has hampered his mobility for about a month now, though he has finally shed the bulky brace that he was required to wear during that stretch. As a result, he looked as good as he has all season in last weekend’s 34-14 drubbing of the Titans, in which the home side began the afternoon with TWENTY-SEVEN unanswered points. This one was domination, folks; Jacksonville held huge advantages in a slew of categories, including total yards (389-235), first downs (24-12), rushing yards (128-92), passing yards (261-143), and takeaways (+2). As for Lawrence, he completed an efficient 24-of-32 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns, while making plenty of plays with his legs, rushing for seventeen yards and another two scores on five carries. Furthermore, he was sacked just once and hit only twice, despite being pressured on nine occasions. (Veteran Wideout) Calvin Ridley accounted for both his passing scores along with 103 receiving yards on seven catches. This was about the same time last Fall that Pederson & Co went on their run, leaving us to wonder what is in store for these cats over the final third of schedule.
From a betting perspective, the Jaguars are 7-3 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, covering the games that they’ve won outright and failing to do so in those that they have lost. After winning and covering FIVE consecutive contests, Jacksonville came back down to earth in a 3-34 thumping at the hands of San Francisco (-3), though did manage to bounce back with that victory over Tennessee last weekend, covering easily as 6.5-point favorites. Under the leadership of Pederson, this is a team that is a stellar 18-12 against the spread (.600) dating back to the beginning of last season, including a ridiculous 13-4 in that regard over their last seventeen outings. In the case of these Jags, the road has been better to them than home (or at least the betting community), as they are 8-2 versus the spread in their last ten trips away from Northern Florida, including a streak of FIVE straight covers on the road. Furthermore, the ROAD team has held the advantage in this particular series, with the visiting side winning and covering each of the last four encounters, while owning a 6-3 mark against the spread over the last nine affairs. Of course, when these teams last met, the Jaguars were absolutely stunned by the Texans in a 17-37 upset back in late September; Trailing 0-17 by the end of the first quarter, the hosts managed to cut the deficit to seven points after a short jaunt into the end zone from (Rookie Tailback) Tank Bigsby, followed by a 33-yard field goal courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Brandon McManus. However, on the ensuing kickoff, Houston gashed them with an 85-yard return to the house. Jacksonville would cut the lead to ten points midway through the fourth period, but was once again caught sleeping as the visitors hit them up for a 68-yard touchdown, effectively ending the tilt altogether. When it was all said and done, Pederson’s troops amassed 404 total yards, rushed for 116 yards on twenty-seven carries, and held possession of the football for 32:03 of game time, though were nonetheless done in by two costly turnovers, and those two huge touchdowns of 60+ yards. Lawrence completed 27-of-40 passes for 279 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while Etienne accumulated 138 yards from scrimmage on twenty-four touches, with (veteran Wideout) Christian Kirk hauling in the lone passing score of the day to go along with four receptions for fifty-four yards. Interestingly, Lawrence has only beaten the Texans once in five tries, completing just 60.4% of his throws for an average of 251.8 yards on 6.17 net yards per attempt, with four touchdowns opposed to SEVEN interceptions, the most that he’s thrown against any single opponent. On the injury front, (emerging young Cornerback) Tyson Campbell will miss his second consecutive game with tender hamstring, while (Receiver/Returner) Jamal Agnew, who lost a crucial fumble int he second half of that previous matchup with the Texans, is also listed as out with shoulder and rib maladies. (Veteran Receiver) Zay Jones, who made his return after a 5-week absence in last weekend’s win over the Titans, is listed as questionable with a sore knee, while (veteran Defensive Lineman) Roy Robertson-Harris also carries that designation with a sprained ankle. Looking ahead, Jacksonville will host the Joe Burrow-less Bengals on Monday Night Football next week, before continuing their trek through the rugged AFC North at Cleveland before a potential playoff preview against Baltimore. A win today would put two games between these teams in the division standings, which could prove vital as the Jags embark on this tough stretch of their schedule.
Meanwhile, is there a team in the league that has been more ahead of schedule than the Texans (6-4, 2nd in AFC South)? Coming into this Fall, expectations were not high in Houston, where the team hired their third Head Coach (DeMeco Ryans) in as many years, signifying their willingness to start over yet again. Armed with a wealth of bargaining chips and draft cache, Ryans and (General Manager) Nick Caserio maneuvered their way through the NFL Draft and ended up drafting second and third overall, selecting what appears to be the foundational pieces of their future on both sides of the football, (Quarterback) C.J. Stroud and (Edge-Rusher) Will Anderson Jr. A year after the Jets ended up fielding both the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year, it looks like the Texans could very well turn that same trick. Starting all ten games, Anderson has been a productive player within a defense that has proven to be greater than the sum of its parts, logging thirty-three tackles, five for loss, thirteen QB hits, eighteen pressures, and three sacks, though two of them have come within the last three outings. However, with all due respect to the Alabama product, any conversation about the Texans starts and ends with the play of Stroud (pictured below). Simply put, this kid is authoring one of the finest rookie campaigns for a QB in NFL history, performing well beyond his years despite being protected by an Offensive Line that has been a veritable MASH unit due to injuries (more on that in a bit). Thus far, the 22-year-old has completed 62.8% of his passes for an average of 296.2 yards per game (which leads the NFL by the way) on a healthy 7.35 net yards per attempt, with seventeen touchdowns opposed to just five interceptions, three of which were thrown in last weekend’s 21-16 victory over the Cardinals. Coming over from San Francisco, Ryans brought (Passing Game Coordinator) Bobby Slowik with him to Houston, importing the Kyle Shanahan scheme that has become so successful around the league. Needless to say, this scheme is very QB-friendly, which has been evident in Stroud’s rapid development despite not having what would be described as premium talent around him. Again, the Offensive Line has been in flux since the season opener, while the likes of (veteran Tight End) Dalton Schultz, (Wide Receivers) Noah Brown and Robert Woods, and (Tailback) Devin Singeltary were all cast aside by their previous teams. Furthermore, (Rookie Wideout) Tank Dell was overlooked as a third-round pick, though has nonetheless developed a stellar rapport with his Quarterback. Thier connection was on display in that win over the redbirds, which proved to be more difficult than initially projected. On paper, Houston should have blown Arizona out, outgaining them 419-319 and converting 9-of-13 third downs, but as we’ve seen so often in this league, turnovers are the great equalizer. Though they’ve taken very good care of the football this season, the Texans lost the turnover battle 2-3, with Stroud picked off on three occasions after tossing just two interceptions in his first nine games. He did however, complete 27-of-37 passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns, the latter of which was a 40-yard strike to Dell down the right hashmark. The Houston product reeled in eight receptions on ten targets for 149 yards, his third 100-yard performance of the campaign thus far. Singletary, who rushed for 150 yards and a score in last weekend’s win at Cincinnati, was at it again in this one, gaining 112 yards and another score on twenty-two carries, while Schultz caught just two passes though one was his fifth touchdown of the season. Defensively, Ryans’ troops got after Kyler Murray, who was making only his second start since returning from an ACL tear suffered this time last year, sacking the diminutive QB three times, pressuring him on six occasions, and picking him off once as (Sophomore Cornerback) Derek Stingley Jr. logged his logged his first interception of the campaign. Progress is often glacial in the NFL, but these Texans appear to be proving to be the exception to the rule, though it will be interesting to see if they can now win their fourth game in a row opposite a division rival who went through this same growth last Fall.
From a betting perspective, the Texans may be 6-4 straight-up, but they have been marginally worse against the spread (5-5), failing to cover three of their last four outings despite winning three in a row outright. After shocking Cincinnati (-5.5) in Stroud’s collegiate homecoming, Houston managed to overcome all those turnovers in last weekend’s win over Arizona, though ultimately came up short of covering a 5.5-point spread. A team on the rise, Ryans’ troops have been far more profitable as underdogs, covering eight of their last ten contests when receiving points from the oddsmakers, riding a 5-game winning streak against the spread in such games. We talked about the road teams having the upper hand in this series, though the underdogs have been pretty damn good in their own right, covering seven of the last ten encounters, including FIVE outright victories. When these teams last met in that aforementioned 37-17 win in Northern Florida, Stroud & Co announced themselves to the world from the word go, taking it to the reigning AFC South Champions in their own house. Things started swiftly for Houston, who began the afternoon with SEVENTEEN unanswered points, highlighted by a short touchdown run by (Sophomore Tailback) Dameon Pierce and a quick scoring toss from Stroud to (Tight End) Brevin Jordan. Every time that the Jags mounted a comeback, the visitors were there to strike right back, be it (veteran H-Back) Andrew Beck’s 85-yard kickoff return to the house, (veteran Linebacker) Blake Cashman’s crucial fumble recovery just before halftime, or Stroud’s 68-yard bomb to the aforementioned Dell. In the end, Houston totaled 366 yards of offense on fifteen first downs and were held to eighty-six rushing yards on twenty-eight carries. However, the offense converted a healthy 9-of-15 third downs, with Stroud enjoying his coming-out party with 280 yards and a pair of touchdowns on an efficient 20-of-30 passing. The same can be said for Dell, who has torched Jacksonville for 145 yards and that score on five receptions. Pierce, who is expected to return to action this afternoon after missing last weekend’s tilt against the redbirds with a sprained ankle has enjoyed tepid success against the Jags, rushing for 130 yards and two touchdowns on forty carries in two career encounters, while reeling in six passes on eight targets for another forty-two receiving yards. On the injury front, Ryans’ defense will be without a number of notable players for this one, folks, as (Safeties) Jimmie Ward (hamstring), M.J. Stewart (shoulder), and Eric Murray (knee), (Defensive Tackle) Hassan Ridgeway (Achilles), and (former Pro-Bowl Linebacker) Denzel Perryman (suspension) are all out of action. Ditto for (veteran Kicker) Ka’imi Fairbairn, who is dealing with a strained quad, along with the aforementioned Brown, who is sidelined with a bulky knee. As we covered earlier, the Offensive Line continues to be ravaged by injuries as well, with SEVEN different Linemen out for the season with various ailments, though (Rookie Guard) Juice Scruggs and (veteran Tackle) are both listed as questionable after being designated to return from injured reserve. Looking ahead, if these young Texans are keen on advancing to the playoffs, then the remaining slate of games should provide them with an opportunity to do so, with just ONE of the next six opponents owning a winning record, including back-to-back road ventures at the Jets and Titans in the next two weeks.