8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Cowboys -9.0, Over/Under: 46.5
Week Thirteen kicks off with a pair of teams that featured heavily on Thanksgiving, though one will be hoping for a much better return as the struggling Seattle Seahawks travel to AT&T Stadium to battle the surging Dallas Cowboys in a matchup that will continue to shape the NFC playoff picture. We said it a week ago and we’ll say it again: we can’t help but feel that the Seahawks (6-5 2nd in NFC West) missed their opportunity to make their move in the NFC West, particularly given the malaise that the 49ers fell into, only to ultimately lose ground to their division rivals over the last few weeks. As San Francisco dropped three consecutive games in four weeks, Seattle managed to split their four outings during that stretch, which included a narrow loss to Cincinnati (14-17) and a thumping at the hands of AFC-leading Baltimore (3-35). Even with that said, they still clung to a share of the NFC West lead at 6-3, but since then has dropped each of their last two games, including last week’s 17-31 drubbing at the hands of the Niners on Thanksgiving night, effectively placing them two games back within the division. So, what in the name of Walter Jones has happened in the Pacific Northwest, you ask? Well, the simplest reason for the demise of these birds has been their schedule. Through the first seven weeks, they faced only one opponent over .500, but since then have crossed paths with three in their last five contests alone, losing all but two of them along the way. However, there are deeper issues for the Seahawks, who have really struggled on the offensive side of the football despite possessing some quality firepower. Through eleven games, (Head Coach) Pete Carroll’s troops rank eighteenth in points scored (20.8), twenty-first in total offense (336.7), seventeenth in passing yards (240.9), and twenty-sixth in rushing yards (95.8). Needless to say, this is troubling given the presence of quality pass-catchers such as (Wideouts) D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, (20th Overall Pick) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, along with (Sophomore Tailback) Kenneth Walker III and (reigning Comeback player of the Year) Geno Smith. This is a classic case of the collective product proving less than the sum total of its parts. Sure, (Offensive Coordinator) Shane Waldron is far from the most imaginable play-caller, while Smith (pictured below) has struggled to capture the magic of last Fall, with his completion percentage dropping to 65.4% (from an NFL-best 69.8%), while tossing twelve touchdowns opposed to eight interceptions, which is well off the pace of the 30-11 TD-INT Ratio that he posted in 2022. Of course, injuries have played a role here too, as his pass protection has been in flux since the opener, with (Sophomore Tackles) Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas both missing time to injury. Furthermore, this is a unit that has also misfired from a situational point of view, ranking twenty-ninth on third down (31.3%) and twenty-fifth in the red zone (47.2%). Lastly, after committing just one turnover through their first four games (+5), this is a team that has totaled TWELEVE in the last seven weeks (-3). This was the case in last Thursday’s loss at home to the Niners, which saw all of their weaknesses exploited. The hosts were outgained by 157 total yards, outrushed by EIGHTY-ONE yards, could muster just fourteen first downs, converted a dismal 3-of-11 third downs, and held possession of the football for only 24:30 of game time. Smith had a particularly rough night at the office, completing 18-of-27 passes for 180 yards, and an interception, while suffering SIX sacks, a dozen hits, and FOURTEEN pressures. In fact, the only touchdown that Seattle could manufacture was a 12-yard interception return to the house from (young Linebacker) Jordyn Brooks early in the third quarter. Simply put, they need much more out of this offense, particularly the passing attack to right the ship here in the coming weeks, lest they risk falling out of the playoff picture altogether.
From a betting perspective, the Seahawks may be 6-5 straight-up thus far, but they have been marginally worse against the spread (5-5-1) and have really fallen into a rut in that latter regard, covering just one of their last five games overall. Seattle did earn the favor of the betting community early, winning and covering four of their first six outings, but as the quality of competition has increased, their overall performance has declined. Dating back to last season, this is a team that is 4-6 against the spread over their last ten road games, while posting a miserable 3-7 mark in their last ten contests as an underdog. Looking at this particular matchup, the overall series has worked in a pattern of threes of late; the home team has won three consecutive encounters (2-1 ATS), followed by the road team matching that record and then the home side responding with another three in a row. With that being said, Carroll’s troops have covered the spread in each of their last three trips to Arlington dating back to 2015, though managed to thread the proverbial needle in their most recent venture to North Texas, coming up short in a 22-24 affair (+2.5). The last time that these teams crossed paths, the birds won a high-scoring 38-31 tilt at Lumen Field back in 2020; the hosts led by as many as fifteen points after taking advantage of Dak Prescott fumble deep in his own territory, but fell victim to SEVENTEEN unanswered points from the Dallas, only for (former Quarterback) Russell Wilson to lead the two-minute comeback, hitting D.K. Metcalf for a 29-yard touchdown followed by a successful two-point conversion to seal the victory. This one was classic Carroll football, folks, as the Seahawks outrushed the Cowboys 117-61 and forced three turnovers, while Wilson bombarded the visiting side with FIVE passing scores. Of course, the aforementioned Smith is the starting QB in the Pacific Northwest these days, and he has never faced off with Big D before despite spending one season backing up Eli Manning in New York. On the injury front, there are a number of notable figures that are listed as questionable for tonight’s affair at AT&T Stadium; (Defensive Tackle) Leonard Williams (ankle), (Safety) Jamal Adams (knee), and (Tailback) Kenneth Walker III (oblique) are all at risk of missing this primetime showdown. Interestingly, Seattle finally opened the 21-day window to activate the aforementioned Lucas, who has been missing from the right flank of the Offensive Line since the season opener with a lingering knee injury. Looking ahead, this treacherous stretch of their schedule does NOT let up in the coming weeks, as Carroll & Co will travel to San Francisco for the second leg of their annual series with 49ers, followed by a return to Lumen Field to host the NFC-leading Eagles, creating a potential future in which these birds are 6-8 heading into the final three weeks of the campaign and clinging to their playoff hopes.
Meanwhile, has there been a team in the league that has been more dominant than the Cowboys (8-3, 2nd in NFC East) over the last three weeks? It has been an impressive campaign for Dallas thus far, as they lead the NFL in scoring (31.5), while posting the fifth-ranked offense (392.3), along with a defense that has yielded the fourth-fewest points (16.8) and third-least total yards (276.3). Furthermore, when they win, this is a team that wins BIG. (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy’s troops have won all but one of their eight victories by at least twenty points, equating to an average margin of 29.7 points, which is on a historic level, folks. As has been the case in each of the previous two seasons, takeaways have played a major role in their success, with (Defensive Coordinator) Dann Quinn ensuring that his unit remains the most opportunistic in the NFL. Since he was hired in 2021, his defense has totaled more takeaways than any team (84!), leading the league in each of the previous two campaigns. Given the firepower that they have possessed on the offensive side of the football, it’s not as if the offense has needed that much help from their teammates on D, but they’ve been happy to receive it all the same; during that span, the Cowboys are +32 in turnover differential during the regular season, which is also checks as the healthiest margin in the NFL. Granted, this Fall has seen their seventeen takeaways rank twelfth overall, but that is a bit misleading given that they are just five away from the top spot, Denver with twenty-two. With that being said, what has set this unit apart from the competition isn’t so much the fact that they’ve been turning over their opponents, but they have been SCORING to boot. Simply put, no team has been better as scoring defensive touchdowns than Dallas, who has a posted a staggering FIFTEEN defensive touchdowns during Quinn’s tenure with the franchise, including SIX this Fall, all but one of which coming courtesy of (Sophomore Cornerback) DaRon Bland. With all due respect to the litany of great pass-rushers that will be vying for Defensive Player of the Year honors, but Bland (pictured below) needs to be at the top of the proverbial list, for his FIVE pick-sixes have thus set an NFL record, with the fact that he’s done so in just eleven games all the more remarkable. Think about that, folks. Some teams go years without a single interception return to the house, and this guy has done it five times already this Fall. To put this into even better perspective, the 24-year-old has scored more touchdowns than (Pro-Bowl Receivers) Davante Adams (4), Justin Jefferson (3), and Cooper Kupp (1). Sure, the latter two pass-catchers have missed a wealth of time due to injury, but you get the point that we’re trying to make, right? The last time that we saw Bland & Co, the young Defensive Back was busy returning yet another interception to the end zone, this time breaking their 45-10 thumping of the Commanders wide open. Believe it or not, this one was relatively close for the bulk of the first half, as the hosts clung to a 14-10 lead before traveling seventy-five yards in 1:25, capped by a 7-yard rushing score courtesy of (Tailback) Tony Pollard. Coming out of intermission, things slowed down for McCarthy’s outfit, though Quinn’s defense would go on to stifle Washington over the ensuing thirty minutes, turning them away on downs three times before Bland’s Pick-6 concluded the holiday victory. In the end, the home side amassed 431 total yards on twenty-one first downs, led by (veteran Quarterback) Dak Prescott, who completed 22-of-32 passes for 331 yards and four touchdowns, with Pollard racking up 103 yards from scrimmage and (Pro-Bowl Receiver) CeeDee Lamb coming back down to Earth a bit with just fifty-three yards and a score on four receptions. Going back to Prescott, the 30-year-old has been on one helluva tear of late, averaging 320.4 yards with EIGHTEEN total touchdowns in comparison to just two interceptions over the last five games.
From a betting perspective, the Cowboys are 8-3 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, covering each of their eight victories this Fall, including THREE consecutive covers of 10+ points, which is something that they haven’t done in quite a while. Home has been where the money is for those wagering on Dallas, who since dropping their season opener at AT&T Stadium last Fall, have won FOURTEEN consecutive home outings, while covering all but two of them along the way. Being favored by the oddsmakers has been another sweet spot for McCarthy’s troops, who are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten contests as a favorite, including six straight covers when laying points. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams haven’t met since that aforementioned 2020 affair at Lumen Field, though as we covered earlier, it was quite the entertaining tilt. In a game in which the two sides combined for sixty-nine points, 932 total yards, and 756 of the passing variety, the visitors were ultimately done in by their own mistakes, committing three turnovers, all of which coming courtesy of Prescott, while also suffering ten penalties (-59 yards) along with a safety midway through the first quarter. For the fantasy crowd, this was the one to watch, as Prescott completed 37-of-57 passes for 472 yards and three touchdowns, though was picked off twice and lost a fumble, with both (veteran Receivers) Michael Gallup and Cedrick Wilson Jr logging 100+ receiving yards. Interestingly, Dak has never beaten Seattle in three tries, completing 61.6% of his throws for an average of 273.7 yards on 6.01 net yards per attempt, with four touchdowns opposed to six interceptions, while suffering eleven sacks to boot. With that being said, there is the presence of the aforementioned Quinn to consider here; the 53-year-old was a part of Carroll’s original coaching staff when arrived in Seattle fifteen years ago and served as his Defensive Coordinator during the 2013 and 2014 campaigns, resulting in the franchise’s only Lombardi Trophy. On the injury front, Quinn’s defense may have lost the services of (veteran Linebacker) Leighton Vander Esch (neck) and (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Trevon Diggs (ACL) for the season, but they could also be without the likes of (veteran Edge-Rusher) Dante Fowler (illness) and (veteran Safety) Jayron Kearse (back), who are both listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s affair in Arlington. However, (Rookie Defensive Tackle) Mazi Smith is probable with a sore shoulder, which is notable as Quinn has begun to work the big fella into the rotation a bit more after drafting him twenty-sixth overall last Spring. Looking ahead, the Cowboys will remain home with an extra three days of rest in lieu of the second leg of their annual series with the Eagles, who handed them their last defeat five weeks ago. After that seismic NFC East clash, McCarthy & Co will hit the road for a late jaunt through the AFC East at Buffalo and Miami before hosting Detroit in a matchup that figures to carry major postseason implications.