4:00 PM EST, CBS – Line: Georgia -4.5, Over/Under: 53.5
It is Championship Weekend in college football, with all eyes being fixated on the events of this evening’s SEC Championship Game as the (No. 8) Alabama Crimson Tide are looking to create some chaos for the Playoff Committee as they meet the two-time reigning National Champion (No. 1) Georgia Bulldogs, who are looking to punch their ticket to a third straight Playoff to compete for what would be a historic third National Title in a row. After spending a decade assuming the role of the hunted, this Fall has seen a dramatic role reversal for Alabama (11-1, 8-0 in SEC), who has relished being the hunter for a change. Coming into the campaign ranked fourth in the Preseason AP Poll, the Crimson Tide stumbled early in a 24-34 loss at home to (No. 11) Texas, snapping a 20-game win streak in Tuscaloosa. A week later, they struggled mightily in a 17-3 win at South Florida, which saw them drop to twelfth in the rankings, their lowest such standing since the conclusion of the 2019 season. During this stretch, (Head Coach) Nick Saban was clearly searching for answers, particularly at Quarterback, where Jalen Milroe, Tyler Buchner, and Ty Simpson each got an opportunity to set things right for the Tide, who continued to find their way under the direction of (new Offensive Coordinator) Tommy Rees in his first year after coming over from Notre Dame. It wasn’t until the following week against (No. 15) Ole Miss that Saban & Co would begin to course correct, overcoming an early deficit to best the Rebels in a 24-10 affair. Since that turning point, ‘Bama has won NINE consecutive games by an average margin of 17.8 points per contest, while enjoying a +6-turnover differential. Though this isn’t the most talented team that Saban has had during his reign in Tuscaloosa, nor is it his most experienced, it very well may be his most resilient; three of their wins during this stretch have come by six points or more, including last weekend’s stunner over Auburn in a 27-24 to send them to the SEC Championship Game after a brief hiatus. Indeed, the latest chapter of the Iron Bowl did NOT disappoint, folks, for every time that Alabama looked to extend their lead, the hosts struck back, eventually taking the lead for themselves midway through the fourth quarter. Trailing 20-24 with less than a minute left, Milroe (pictured below) was faced with one last opportunity to be a hero and save his team’s season, and the Sophomore rose to the occasion, buying time for his teammates to get downfield, eventually finding (Sophomore Receiver) Isaiah Bond for a 31-yard touchdown to win the game. Needless to say, the crowd at Jordan-Hare Stadium was in SHOCK as the visitors pulled the proverbial carpet out from under them. When it was all said and done, the Crimson Tide outgained the Tigers 451-357 despite being outrushed 192-244, thanks in large part to winning the turnover battle 3-0. (Sophomore Cornerback) Terrion Arnold picked off Payton Thorne twice, while (Sophomore Linebacker) Jihaad Campbell came up with a recovered fumble to help spur the comeback. As for Milroe, this was the biggest win of his career, completing 16-of-24 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns, while leading the visiting side with 107 rushing yards on eighteen carries. (Junior Wideout) Jermaine Burton hauled in 107 yards and a score on four receptions, while Bond caught five passes for seventy-five yards and that game-winner.
From a betting perspective, Alabama may be 11-1 straight-up this Fall, but they’ve also proven to be a solid play for those wagering on them in posting an 8-4 record against the spread. It seems that that slow start had quite a bit of influence on how the oddsmakers viewed the Crimson Tide, who were not subject to the sizeable point spreads that they had so often faced in the past, covering SEVEN of eight games prior to last weekend’s survival at Auburn. To give you an idea as to what we’re getting at, Saban’s troops were favored by 30+ points in two of their first three contests this season, only to see just TWO tilts with a spread of over seventeen points. In comparison to last Fall, they played just FOUR games that featured a line below that particular threshold. Under Saban’s leadership, this is a program that is 128-100-4 (.551) against the spread dating back to his arrival in 2007, though this contest at Mercedes-Benz Superdome will see them in a rare spot indeed as an underdog. This is just the FIFTH time since 2009 in which ‘Bama has been a dog, winning the first three instances outright by an average margin of 21.3 points before getting bludgeoned by Georgia in the 2021 National Championship Game (+3). In fact, all but one of these games has been against the Bulldogs, which includes a fateful SEC Championship Game encounter back in 2021, in which Saban & Co (+6) took it to the eventual Champions, running them out of the Superdome in a 41-24 affair. There aren’t many members from that team left in Tuscaloosa, these days, with the likes of Bryce Young, Brian Robinson, Jameson Williams, and Will Anderson all plying their trade in the NFL this Fall. However, (Junior Linebacker) Dallas Turner logged a pair of sacks on that evening, while (Junior Wideout) Ja’Corey Brooks logged six receptions for forty-seven yards. Ironically, the aforementioned Burton participated in that game as a member of the Bulldogs, catching a pair of passes for twenty-eight yards, before eventually transferring to the Crimson Tide later that Spring. On the injury front, Brooks is listed as questionable for today’s clash in Atlanta thanks to a sore shoulder, while (Junior Tailback) Jase McClellan carries that same designation due to an ailing foot. Looking ahead, a win today would obviously send Alabama to their seventh Playoff in nine years, where they will be gunning for their SIXTEENTH National Championship and SEVENTH under Saban, while a loss will likely consign the Tide to consolation bowl, perhaps one of the New Year’s Six.
Meanwhile, the mission from here is clear for Georgia (12-0, 8-0 in SEC): win and they’re in the Playoff. It is as simple as that. In completing a third consecutive undefeated regular season, the Bulldogs are one win away from competing in a third consecutive Playoff, which would put them in play for a third straight National Championship, which has we touched upon in the opening, would be kind of a BIG deal for the good folks in Athens. Putting this into a historic context, there hasn’t been a three-peat in the FBS since the subdivision was labeled as such, with Minnesota being the last program to capture three Nattys in a row from 1934 to 1936. Needless to say, it has been quite a while since we’ve seen such excellence, which really speaks to the job that (Head Coach) Kirby Smart & Co have done over the last few years. In many ways, the 47-year-old has successfully built the Bulldogs into a program currently on par with the Crimson Tide, routinely pumping out NFL talent year after year, all the while remaining a fixture in this postseason tournament. Even with new faces on both sides of the football this Fall, UGA has been stellar in each regard, averaging 39.6 points per game (8th in FBS) on 496.4 total yards, including 310.8 yards via the pass and another 185.6 courtesy of the run. Ironically, the passing game has taken a more prominent role this season, with (Sophomore Quarterback) Carson Beck settling into the starting job quickly. Standing 6-4, 215 pounds, Beck (pictured below) has the prototypical size and arm strength that the NFL looks for, thus opening up (Offensive Coordinator) Mike Bobo’s playbook in ways that his predecessor simply could not, marking the first time that Georgia has passed for over 300 yards per game during Smart’s tenure. Beck has completed an efficient 72.4% of his passes for 3,495 yards on 9.4 yards per attempt, with twenty-two touchdowns opposed to six interceptions, while rushing for another three scores to boot, while doing a solid job of spreading the ball to different targets, with seven different Bulldogs logging 20+ receptions. Of course, this was necessary given the absence of (All-American Tight End) Brock Bowers, who missed time due to a high ankle sprain in October. In his absence, (Junior Receiver) Dominic Lovett and (Junior Tight End) Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint produced 552 and 472 yards respectively, combining for seven touchdowns, while (Junior Wideout) Ladd McConkey adds twenty-six catches, 418 yards and a pair of scores. Defensively, Georgia continues to be one of the toughest units in the country in yielding 15.8 points (6th in FBS) on 294.3 total yards, with opposing Quarterbacks struggling in particular in completing 56.1% passes for just 176.5 yards with eleven touchdowns in comparison to a dozen interceptions. Their performance against the run has been a bit of a different story, shipping 117.8 yards on the ground and 4.0 yards per carry, which stands as a stark departure from the last four seasons in which they relegated the opposition below 80.0 rushing yards and 3.0 yards per attempt. Five straight opponents have rushed for over 100 yards against them, including last weekend’s 31-23 victory over Georgia Tech, who gashed the Dawgs for 205 yards and a pair of touchdowns on forty-four rushes. Granted, Georgia trailed only once early on in this trip to Atlanta, though managed to build a 31-13 lead after running off seventeen unanswered points between the second and third quarters. In the end, the visitors outgained their instate rivals 437-363, outrushing them 262-205, though did lose the turnover battle 0-2, which explains why this affair was closer than initially projected. Beck completed just 13-of-20 passes for 175 yards, a touchdown and an interception, with Lovett leading the team with sixty-eight yards and a 29-yard touchdown, while (Junior Tailback) Kendall Milton ran roughshod through the Yellow Jackets to the tune of 156 yards and two scores on eighteen carries. (Fellow Junior) Daijun Edwards added fifty-five yards and a score of his own on thirteen carries, while also factoring into the passing game with another thirty-one yards on a pair of catches.
From a betting perspective, Georgia may stand at an unbeaten 12-0 straight-up this Fall, but it has been a far different story against the spread, where they have posted a sub-par mark of 4-7-1. With that being said, those who have stuck with the Bulldogs in this regard have begun to see some rewards; after failing to cover any of their first FIVE contests (0-4-1 ATS), Smart’s troops have managed to cover four of their last seven outings. However, that cannot be said about their win over Georgia Tech last weekend, as Smart opted to sit many of his starters after having already clinched a spot in this evening’s SEC Championship Game. Under the skipper’s leadership, this is a program that is 59-48-1 against the spread since his arrival back in 2016. Looking at this particular matchup, a lot of the coverage will revolve around the chess match between Smart and Saban, with the former rising to prominence under the latter as his Defensive Coordinator from 2008 to 2015. Of course, we are all acquainted with Saban’s mastery over his former lieutenants, owning a 28-3 record against them, with Smart being no different in losing his first FOUR encounters with the venerable taskmaster, which includes the 2017 National Championship Game (23-26) and that aforementioned SEC Title Game two years ago (24-41). However, his Bulldogs finally climbed the mountain a month after that latter defeat, toppling the Crimson Tide in a 33-18 affair in the 2021 National Championship Game. As is the case with their opponent, there aren’t many participants leftover from that watershed triumph, though Bowers and McConkey can be counted among them; McConkey may have had just two touches on the night for a net zero yards, but Bowers became staked his claim as the best young Tight End in the country with four receptions thirty-six yards and a touchdown late in the fourth quarter to give the Dawgs as more comfortable lead to work with. On the injury front, Georgia is largely healthy coming into this clash at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, with both Bowers and McConkey expected to start after being preserved on the sidelines of last Saturday’s battle with the Yellow Jackets. Looking ahead, the Bulldogs will advance to a third consecutive Playoff with a win this evening, which would put them one step closer to achieving their goal of claiming a third consecutive National Championship. Depending on what happens in the ACC and BIG 10 Title Games later tonight, there is an argument to be made that they could conceivably get into the tourney with a loss, though the likelihood of that happening is fairly slim.