4:25 PM EST, FOX – Line: 49ers -3.0, Over/Under: 47.5
As the calendar transitions to December, Week Thirteen is highlighted by a rematch of last January’s NFC Title Game, as the surging San Francisco storm into Lincoln Financial Field with vengeance on their mind, while the Philadelphia Eagles are looking to set themselves up once again as the conference’s top overall seed. With eleven games in the books, it is safe to say that the 49ers (8-3, 1st in NFC West) have effectively put their midlife crisis behind them, winning each of their last three games following an ugly three-game losing streak. Injuries played a heavy role during that brief midseason swoon, with the absence of a number of playmakers on both sides of the football causing one of the most balanced teams in the league to perform below their means; San Francisco averaged 17.0 points on 333.3 total yards with a turnover differential of -3, while the likes of (All-Pros) Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Williams either missed time to injury or were at the very least hindered by their respective ailments. (Sophomore Quarterback) Brock Purdy struggled mightily through this spell, looking more like the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft than the uber-efficient signal-caller whose emergence made both Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance expendable. Prior to this slide, Purdy (pictured below) had been completing 72.0% of his passes for an average of 254.2 yards on a healthy 9.04 net yards per attempt, with nine touchdowns in comparison to ZERO interceptions. However, during that losing streak, he could muster just 62.5% passing for similar yardage on 8.11 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns, but SIX turnovers (including 5 interceptions). Care to wager what happened after their bye week as they returned to full strength? Unsurprisingly, both the 49ers and their Quarterback shot right back up the charts, as the team has scored 30.7 points per game on 411.3 total yards en route to outgaining the opposition by a staggering 168.7 yards. The determining factor has been takeaways, which has swung back in their favor, as San Francisco +7 in these three outings. As for Purdy, he’s returned to form in completing 75.3% of his throws for 279.3 yards on 9.87 net yards per attempt, with SEVEN touchdowns opposed to only one interception. When we last saw these Niners, they looked as formidable as ever as they eviscerated the Seahawks in a key division matchup on Thanksgiving night. Simply put, this 31-13 beatdown wasn’t even that close, as the visitors ran off seventeen unanswered points in the second quarter to head into halftime with a commanding 24-3 lead. (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan’s troops outgained the home side 377-220, outrushed them 169-88, and held the football for a whopping 35:30 of possession. Purdy completed 21-of-30 passes for 209 yards and a touchdown, though did toss a Pick-6 on his first possession of the second half. McCaffrey and Samuel were as dynamic as ever, with the former totaling 139 yards from scrimmage and two rushing scores on twenty-four touches, while the latter added another ninety-four yards and a rushing touchdown of his own on eleven touches. Defensively, (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Wilks watched his unit feast on Seattle’s struggling offense, racking up SIX sacks and two takeaways, as (reigning Defensive Player of the Year) Nick Bosa sacked Geno Smith twice, while (young Cornerback) Ambry Thomas picked him off early in the second quarter.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers may be 8-3 straight-up thus far, but it has been a bit of a different story against the spread, where they have posted a 6-4-1 mark. San Francisco has successfully dug themselves out of their midseason malaise and covered two of the last three outings, including that trashing of Seattle on Thanksgiving night. Over their last ten trips away from Levi’s Stadium, they are 5-4-1 against the spread in such contests, though they have been decisively less successful when visiting good teams; the Niners have covered just ONE of their past five tilts on the road against opponents with a winning home record, which is absolutely the case this evening. Looking at this particular matchup, the favorite has covered four of the last five meetings dating back to 2014, including last January’s fateful affair in the NFC Championship Game, a 7-31 defeat at Lincoln Financial Field. Tied at 7-7 early in the second quarter, this one was thrown into the proverbial blender when Purdy suffered a torn ligament in the elbow of his throwing arm on a strip sack, forcing him to the sideline early. Granted, he would return to the gridiron early in the second half, though was unable to throw the football effectively, leaving he and his teammates to wonder what might have been. In the end, the visitors were held to a mere 164 total yards on eleven first downs and 2-of-8 on third down (0-of-2 on fourth), with three lost fumbles and eleven penalties for a loss of eighty-one yards. To give you an idea as to how bad this performance was for Shanahan & Co, they possessed the football for a just 22:34, which was by far and away their lowest of the campaign. On the injury front, the 49ers should be healthier than they have been in quite a while given that they’re coming ten days rest, though there are a few notable names to keep an eye on: (veteran Defensive Lineman) Arik Armstead is listed as questionable with an ailing foot, while (rising star) Talanoa Hufanga is lost for the season with a torn ACL. Looking ahead, San Francisco will host Seattle for the second leg of their annual series, followed by a trip to the desert to meet Arizona before entertaining a potential Super Bowl preview against Baltimore.
Meanwhile, as their opponent has been manhandling the opposition of late, the Eagles (10-1, 1st in NFC East) have been inventing new ways to win as they continue to hold onto the best record in the NFL through twelve weeks. Since suffering their only loss of the campaign, a puzzling 14-20 affair against the lowly Jets, this is a team that has won five consecutive games by a slim margin of 6.6 points, with each of their last three contests decided five points or less. Though their record would indicate that Philadelphia has been every bit as dominant as they were last Fall, a deeper dive would reveal that that hasn’t been the case at all, as this latest incarnation of the birds has looked far more vulnerable than the 2022 NFC Champions. Granted, that is to be expected given the volume of change that this group has undergone, what with a wealth of starters from last year leaving via free agency along with their Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon, who are now the Head Coaches of the Colts and Cardinals respectively. Offensively, (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni’s troops have remained prolific, averaging 28.2 points (3rd Overall) on 378.5 total yards (9th Overall), though haven’t resembled the well-oiled machine that they were last Fall under Steichen’s stewardship, in large part because of negative turnover differential (-2), including ten interceptions tossed by (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Jalen Hurts, who was picked off on just six occasions a year ago. Then again, this unit coordinated by (former QB Coach) Brian Johnson has made plays when they’ve needed to, whether it be on the ground behind the top Offensive Line in the league, or through the air via the tandem of (All-Pro Receiver) A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The real concern has been the defense, which under the direction of (new DC) Sean Desai, has struggled to reach the heights that they did under his predecessor. While there have been moments in which they have appeared as imposing as ever, Philly has been far too inconsistent this season, shipping 22.4 points (20th Overall) on 341.0 total yards (19th Overall), thanks in large part to a leaky pass defense (255.7 yards per game) and a freefall in terms of situational football, ranking thirtieth on third down (45.5%) and twenty-ninth in the red zone (64.9%). Again, the Eagles lost four starters from the side that nearly won Super Bowl LVII, including a pair of Linebackers and Safeties, but no matter how you slice it this is a group that has rarely lived up to their lofty reputation in proving lesser than the total sum of their parts. This was the case in last weekend’s epic overtime affair against Buffalo, in which Philadelphia was forced to rally back from a 10-point deficit for the fourth time this season. After looking stuck in neutral throughout the first half, Hurts (pictured below) let it fly after intermission, finding Brown for a short score midway through the third period, before hitting Smith for a 15-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter, followed immediately by a 29-yard strike to the back of the end zone to (unheralded Wideout) Olamide Zaccheaus on a crucial 3rd-&-15 to take the lead. However, the Bills would strike back to retake the lead late in the final stanza, only for (veteran Kicker) Jake Elliott to burry a CLUTCH 59-yard field goal through the wind and rain, pushing the contest to overtime. The visitors would eventually settle for a field goal on the opening drive of the extra frame, setting up a 9-play, 75-yard drive ending with a walk-off 12-yard touchdown run up the middle of the field by Hurts. In the end, the hosts survived getting gashed for 505 total yards, including 420 yards and four touchdowns courtesy of Josh Allen, along with twenty-nine first downs, a ridiculous 13-of-22 on third down, and a whopping 40:30 of possession to earn their tenth victory of the campaign. Hurts completed 18-of-31 passes for 200 yards, three touchdowns and interception, while rushing for another sixty-five yards and two scores on fourteen carries, though he also lost a fumble to boot. Smith hauled in seven receptions for 106 yards and that aforementioned score, while (young Tailback) D’Andre Swift rushed for eighty-yards on fourteen carries. (Veeran Cornerback) James Bradberry picked off Allen in the third quarter, while (veteran Edge-Rusher) Brandon Graham logged the only sack despite his side logging four pressures.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles have been near perfect with a 10-1 record straight-up and have been nearly as rewarding against the spread, posting a 7-2-2 mark in that regard. In fact, those wagering on these birds haven’t lost money in six weeks, including three consecutive covers against tough competition, which includes las weekend’s overtime epic against the Bills. Philadelphia is 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games after shipping more than 250 passing yards in the previous contest, while matching that record in their past five outings after scoring at least thirty points, which is the case this evening. With that being said, Sirianni’s troops haven’t been a great play as an underdog, covering just three of their last ten games when receiving points from the oddsmakers, which includes a 1-4 mark in their last five such tilts. Looking at this particular matchup, Philly has taken three of the last four encounters dating back to 2017, covering three of them, including that aforementioned affair in the NFC Championship Game last January. Favored by three points, this one was ALL EAGLES, particularly after Purdy was knocked out action thanks to (veteran Edge-Rusher) Haason Reddick’s early strip sack, with the hosts running off TWENTY-FOUR unanswered points after the midway point of the second quarter. When it was all said and done, the NFC Champions outgained the visitors 269-164, outrushed them 148-81, and won the turnover battle 3-0, en route to possessing the football for a whopping 37:26. In his second career encounter with the Niners, Hurts completed 15-of-25 passes for 121 yards, while rushing for another thirty-nine yards and a touchdown on eleven carries. (Veteran Tailback) Kenneth Gainwell totaled seventy-four yards from scrimmage on sixteen touches, while the tandem of Brown and Smith accounted for just sixty-four yards on six receptions. Defensively, Reddick dominated with a pair of sacks, a forced fumble, and a recovery, while Javon Hargrave, who now plies his trade for San Francisco, logged a sack of his own. On the injury front, the Eagles are going through it as they get set to play their third game in thirteen days, with a number of notable players occupying the weekly report. (Veteran Linebacker) Zach Cunningham is out with a tender hamstring, while (veteran Defensive Tackle) Fletcher Cox is questionable after leaving last weekend’s tilt with Buffalo due to an ailing knee. However, (Pro-Bowl Right Tackle) Lane Johnson (groin), (Sophomore Nose Tackle) Jordan Davis (undisclosed), and the aforementioned triumvirate of Swift (ankle), Brown (thigh) and Smith (knee) have all been upgraded to probable after being limited throughout the week of practice. Looking ahead, a win today would gift these birds with that much more cushioning in their pursuit of the number one seed in the NFC, which could become academic after next weekend’s seismic clash in Dallas, which could sew up the division with five weeks to spare. This hellish part of their schedule will take them to Seattle in two weeks, before a very soft stretch run consisting of a pair of dates with the Giants bookending the home finale against the Cardinals.