8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Steelers -6.5, Over/Under: 32.5
In sports, there are some games that you simply must suffer, which absolutely applies to us viewers (and not to mention the broadcasting team), who should brace themselves for tonight’s matchup featuring the struggling New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers, kicking off Week Fourteen from Acrisure Stadium in Western Pennsylvania. For nearly two decades, this matchup was must-see football with these two franchises routinely vying for AFC supremacy; from 2001 to 2019, they combined for a whopping TWELVE AFC Championships and EIGHT Lombardi Trophies, while facing off on seventeen occasions (including playoffs). However, a big reason as to why this rivalry has lost its luster has been the complete erosion of the Patriots (2-10, Last in AFC East), who are stunningly circling the drain of the National Football League. Seriously, folks, who could have imagined a reality in which a team being directed by the legendary Bill Belichick could be THIS bad? After all, this is the same man that led New England to NINETEEN consecutive winning seasons, SEVENTEEN playoff appearances and division titles, NINE Super Bowl appearances, and SIX Lombardi Trophies during his first twenty years on the job. However, since the departure of a certain Hall of Famer-to-be, the results simply haven’t been up to par in the Northeast, with the Pats making just one postseason appearance in the last three seasons and are about to make it a fourth in about a week or two. So, what in the name of Gino Cappelletti has happened in Foxborough, you ask? Well, unsurprisingly, this has been a VERY different team without the presence of the greatest Quarterback in NFL history, Tom Brady. However, that doesn’t explain what appears to be a calamity of errors from an organization that rarely made them for two decades, with Belichick (pictured below) bearing the brunt of the blame. The 71-year-old has done a very questionable job of managing both his coaching staff and the roster over the past four years, missing wildly on draft picks and free agents, while failing to properly replace his assistant coaches. After the Cam Newton experience underwhelmed mightily, Belichick opted to use the fifteenth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on Mac Jones, who played well under (former Offensive Coordinator) Josh McDaniels, only to regress mightily last Fall after the longtime play-caller left his post to become the Head Coach of the Raiders. To the curiosity of many, Belichick chose to replace McDaniels with two former non-offensive assistants, as (former Defensive Coordinator) Matt Patricia and (former Special Teams Coach) Joe Judge handled those responsibilities in tandem. Unsurprisingly, the offense floundered to twenty-sixth overall, with Jones looking like a basket case for much of the campaign. This Fall, the attack was expected to course-correct under the direction of (former OC) Bill O’Brien, a respectable play-caller in his own right with ties to Alabama where Jones played collegiately. Unfortunately, it has gotten even worse on this side of the football, as the Patriots rank dead-last in the NFL in points scored (12.3), twenty-eighth in total offense (305.3) and red zone percentage (33.1%), and twenty-third in passing (201.6), all the while committing TWENTY turnovers for an untenable -9 differential. For his troubles, Jones has completed 64.9% of his throws for an average of 192.7 yards on just 5.43 net yards per attempt, with more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (10), equating to a QBR of 36.5, leading to his benching in favor of the undrafted Bailey Zappe. Though he hasn’t helped his cause, this disaster isn’t on the Quarterback alone, for the supporting cast around him is hardly imposing, what with a complete lack of explosive athletes and an Offensive Line that has been a proverbial revolving door due to injuries. How else can we explain how they’ve scored single digits in THREE consecutive games now, including ZERO in last weekend’s 0-6 shootout with the Chargers. Despite bullying Los Angeles on the ground for much of the afternoon (148 rushing yards), the hosts could never do much with the football, failing to even attempt a field goal in the contest. The Pats fumbled away their most promising drive of the day (13 plays, 54 yards) early in the first half and were otherwise forced to punt seven times, while turning it over on downs on their final two possessions. Zappe completed 13-of-25 passes for 141 yards and was subject to consistent pressure from the visitors, who sacked him five times, utterly wasting what was a stellar performance by the defense in holding a high-powered attack to just six points and 241 total yards. For those of you claiming that Belichick is losing these games on purpose to earn the top pick in the draft, we’d like to throw some cold water on that particular theory, for there is growing speculation that he could very well decide to leave New England altogether and continue his quest to pass Don Shula on the all-time wins list in another locale.
From a betting perspective, the Patriots have been just as bad against the spread this Fall as they have been straight-up, covering just TWO of their twelve games thus far (2-10 ATS), which includes five consecutive losses in both regards. Interestingly, New England hasn’t been HUGE underdogs yet, with the largest spreads that they have faced being 7.5-point dogs in back-to-back weeks against the likes of Buffalo and Miami, which resulted in their last win and cover. While he wasn’t a dog in the bulk of his team’s games over their two decades of success, Belichick hasn’t really adjusted to this role over the past few years, posting a miserable 3-14 record against the spread when receiving points from the oddsmakers over the last two years. Furthermore, the Pats have failed to cover four consecutive games away from Foxborough, while dropping five straight outings after relegating an opponent to fifteen or fewer points, which is the case tonight. However, if there is one silver lining in this particular matchup, it is that the skipper has generally OWNED the Steelers throughout his career; Belichick is a commanding 13-4 versus Pittsburgh since he joined New England back in 2020, which includes a stellar 11-4-2 mark against the spread. However, when these two storied franchises crossed paths last Fall, they played to a stalemate in terms of the spread, with the Pats taking a narrow 17-14 victory at Acrisure Stadium on the strength of a convincing defensive effort. The visitors relegated the Steelers to just 243 total yards and sixteen first downs, forcing a pair of key turnovers along the way. Back then, Jones was still the preferred starter under center, completing 21-of-35 passes for 252 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while the ground game churned out 124 yards on thirty-one carries, allowing the visiting side to possess the football for 33:36. Unfortunately, you would be hard-pressed to find really any of the playmakers from that afternoon in Western Pennsylvania on this current incarnation of the Patriots; as we covered earlier, Jones has been benched, while (veteran Tailback) Damien Harris (71 rushing yards, 1 TD) along with (veteran Wideouts) Nelson Agholor (110 receiving yards, 1 TD) and Jakobi Meyers (95 receiving yards) left in Free Agency, while (young Tailback) Rhamondre Stevenson (47 rushing yards) limped off the field in last weekend’s loss to the Chargers. Speaking of Stevenson, he is expected to miss multiple weeks with what has been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, adding yet another body to what continues to be a hefty injury report. Looking ahead, tonight’s trip to Pittsburgh may represent one of the final opportunities for the Patriots to taste victory, for the next weeks will see them host the Chiefs, before hitting the road one last time to battle the Broncos and Bills, before closing out this miserable schedule with the second leg of their annual series with the struggling Jets.
Meanwhile, despite not being much better offensively than their opponent tonight, the Steelers (7-5, 2nd in AFC North) have nonetheless overachieved this Fall in cementing themselves within the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. It really has been a remarkable campaign thus far for Pittsburgh, who despite being outgained by an average 53.1 yards per game, has managed to remain above .500 for the bulk of the season. Seriously, folks, this is a team that has been outgained in ELEVEN of their twelve games thus far, leading (longtime Head Coach) Mike Tomlin to part ways with his much-maligned Offensive Coordinator, Matt Canada, after eleven weeks of hard-to-watch football. Given that this is one of the most stable organizations in the NFL and Tomlin has never fired one of his coordinators in-season, the fact that this happened should speak volumes as to what was going in within the franchise. After ranking twenty-sixth in points and twenty-third in total offense last Fall, there simply wasn’t enough progress to be found in 2023 to keep Canada calling plays; the Steelers currently rank twenty-eighth in points (16.0) and passing yards (195.3), twenty-sixth in total offense (310.6), twenty-third on third down (36.0%), and twenty-ninth in the red zone (42.3%). As bad as those figures appear, the most damning thing of all is the fact that this ineptitude has occurred despite generally taking good care of the football, with Pittsburgh committing just twenty-nine turnovers over the last two seasons, which parlays to a healthy margin of +14 in twenty-nine games. Just think where this unit would be if they had a turnover differential like New England’s… And that, ladies and gentlemen, has been how Tomlin & Co have managed to survive thus far, though it remains to be seen if they can continue this approach even after parting ways with Canada. In the two games since his ousting, the offense has averaged just 13.0 points on a meager 227.5 total yards, despite possessing the football for over thirty minutes in each contest. First, they bested the Joe Burrow-less Bengals in a 16-10 affair that featured an offensive explosion (421 total yards), marking the first time this year that they outgained the opposition. (Co-Offensive Coordinators) Eddie Faulkner and Mike Sullivan did a good job of moving the Offensive Line and getting their playmakers into space, aided by the return of (young Tight End) Pat Freiermuth, who hauled in nine receptions on eleven targets for 120 yards. (Sophomore Quarterback) Kenny Pickett completed 24-of-33 passes for 278 yards, while (veteran Tailback) Najee Harris rushed for ninety-nine yards and the visitors’ only touchdown. Unfortunately, the good times did not continue in last weekend’s odd tilt with the Cardinals, who silenced the crowd at Acrisure Stadium with a 24-10 upset. This one was featured some rather dysfunctional weather, folks, with two separate stoppages due to storms in the area, one of which halting the game for nearly an hour. After settling for a 29-yard field goal courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Chris Boswell on their opening drive, Pittsburgh struggled to regain their momentum throughout the rest of the afternoon, punting on their next three possessions, before a promising 12-play, 79-yard drive ended on downs as Pickett suffered what appeared to be a nasty high ankle sprain. (Veteran Backup) Mitch Trubisky took over in the second half, though was hardly inspiring, fumbling away the snap on their first drive of the second half, before Boswell missed a 45-yard field goal. Meanwhile, Arizona found their rhythm, scoring twenty-four unanswered points to build a lad that they would never relinquish. In the end, the home side amassed 317 total yards on eighteen first downs, committed the lone turnover of the day and were flagged on nine occasions for a loss of seventy-seven yards. Pickett was 7-of-10 passing for seventy yards prior to his injury, while Trubisky completed 11-of-17 attempts for 117 yards and a consolation touchdown to (veteran Receiver) Diontae Johnson. This listless showing wasted what was an otherwise strong performance from the defense, who limited the redbirds to 282 yards. With Pickett likely to miss the rest of the regular season after undergoing surgery to speed up the healing of his ankle, can Trubisky keep this team afloat long enough to get them into the playoffs? Will Faulkner and Sullivan find a way to tap into the potential of their playmakers to make it easier for their Quarterback? Remember, the Bears once traded up to number two in order to select 29-year-old with the intent of developing him into their franchise passer. Hell, he did manage to take Chicago to the playoffs twice. Time will tell if he can do the same in Pittsburgh…
From a betting perspective, the Steelers have overachieved to reach this Fall, while posting an identical mark against the spread (7-5), which includes three covers in their last five outings. However, they lost outright in last weekend’s affair with the Cardinals, failing to cover as 6.0-point favorites, which is the most that they have been favored by the oddsmakers this season. With this being a team that generally doesn’t win by large margins, wagering on them when favored by nearly a touchdown feels like risky business indeed. With that being said, Pittsburgh has displayed a resilience under Tomlin, which has been exhibited in the fact that they have covered SEVEN straight games after being held below fifteen points in the previous contest, while matching that record in their last seven outings following a straight-up defeat. Furthermore, last Sunday’s performance aside, this is a team that usually handles their business against weaker opponents, logging a stellar 8-2 ledger against the spread versus opponents below .500. It will be interesting to see if that trend will apply to the Patriots, whom as we covered earlier have really had their number over the last two decades. If we’re looking at this series from Tomlin’s point of view, his troops have lost all but THREE of their twelve meetings since he was hired back in 2007, including seven of the past eight encounters (1-5-2 ATS). Last year’s affair is relevant not just for being the most recent tilt between these legendary franchises, but for the simple fact that it featured the aforementioned Trubisky starting for the Black & Yellow, which will ironically be the case tonight due to Pickett undergoing ankle surgery. Needless to say, the former second overall pick DID NOT light it up during his brief tenure as the starter in Western Pennsylvania, with this game being different; the veteran completed 21-of-33 passes for just 168 yards, a touchdown, an interception, and three sacks, with he and his teammates unable to breach the end zone until the opening moments of the fourth quarter. With two opportunities to draw even or take the lead, Trubisky & Co were found lacking on both occasions, going three-and-out on their final two possessions to fall to a 14-17 defeat. On the injury front, we’ve already covered Pickett’s status moving forward, but he is far from the only Steeler on the shelf at this point of the campaign; (veteran Linebacker) Kwon Alexander (Achilles) and his younger understudy, Cole Holcomb (knee) are both on Injured Reserve, while (veteran Safety) Keanu Neal is out indefinitely with sore ribs. The aforementioned Harris is questionable to participate in this short turnaround due to an ailing knee, while the same ca be said of (veteran Guard) Isaac Seumalo (shoulder) and (Linebacker) Elandon Roberts (groin). Looking ahead, Pittsburgh is clinging to one of the three Wild Card spots in the AFC and could deal a blow to their direct competition with a win over Indianapolis and Cincinnati in the following weeks before hitting the road for what appears to be a grueling finish to the campaign at Seattle and Baltimore.