4:25 PM EST, CBS – Line: Chiefs -1.5, Over/Under: 48.5
One of the NFL’s more entertaining rivalries takes centerstage in Week Fourteen, as the Buffalo Bills emerge from their bye desperate for a win as they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs, who are also keen on bouncing back from defeat. After winning their division in each of the last three seasons, it will take quite the effort for the Bills (6-6, 2nd in AFC East) to win a fourth, as they currently sit three games out of first place. Indeed, at this point of the campaign, Buffalo’s priority has instead shifted towards simply getting into the playoffs, which would have sounded outlandish two months ago. Coming into this weekend, they find themselves mired in a glut of different teams trending around .500, though if the postseason began today, they would be on the outside looking in due to various tiebreakers. So, how in the hell did it come to this for a team that entered this Fall on the shortlist of contenders within the AFC? Well, there have been plenty of factors at play here, folks, the first being a simple one: health. Apart from the talents of (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Josh Allen and (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Stefon Diggs, this is a roster that isn’t necessarily flush with blue chip playmakers at a plethora of positions. Instead, they’ve been successful in being greater than the sum total of their parts. However, when some of those parts are taken out of the equation, then you really begin to see how wanting they really are. After a dramatic 48-30 triumph over the division-leading Dolphins back in early October, the Bills started dropping like proverbial flies, particularly on defense where (longtime starters) Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano were lost for the season to various injuries, while (veteran Edge-Rusher) Von Miller (much more on him in a bit) waited in limbo to return from a torn ACL suffered last Fall. Furthermore, (veteran Tight End) Dawson Knox suffered a broken wrist six weeks ago, torpedoing their offensive plans of utilizing more traditional Tight End sets to jump start the rushing attack in turn alleviating some of the playmaking pressure from Allen’s shoulders. Speaking of the offense, (Offensive Coordinator) Ken Dorsey was relieved of his duties ten games into the schedule following an ugly primetime loss at home to the Broncos in which the hosts committed FOUR turnovers, with (QB Coach) Joe Brady now serving as the interim playcaller. And then there is Allen (pictured below), whose play has become something of erratic this season. Sure, his completion percentage (68.1%) is the second highest of his career, while his thirty-three total touchdowns checking in as the most of any player in the NFL thus far, but his thirteen interceptions, which is one fewer than he threw in four more games last year, currently stands as the most in the league. Then again, this really shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that has been keeping an eye on the 27-year-old, who while being one of the most prolific Quarterbacks over the past few seasons has also been one of the most turnover-prone; since 2021, Allen has produced a whopping 117 total touchdowns, though has been the subject of FIFTY-THREE turnovers, which is the most of any passer during that span. Granted, this is a biproduct of how he plays and more so how the offense functions arounds him, which is a big reason why (Head Coach) Sean McDermott has been so intent on building up the ground game. Unfortunately, the flaw in that design is that in many ways, Allen remains their most effective rusher. For a team averaging 122.3 rushing yards (10th Overall), the QB has accounted for 28.5 yards of that number, while leading them by a wide margin in touchdowns (9) and ranking second in first downs (32). At 6-5, 237 pounds, he has essentially become their short-yardage Back, which exposes him to otherwise unnecessary punishment. When we last saw the Bills, they fell agonizingly short of upsetting the (reigning NFC Champions) Eagles in a wild, rainy, windy, 34-37 affair at Lincoln Financial Field. Seriously, folks, Buffalo did just about everything they could do other than actually win the game; the visitors racked up a whopping 505 total yards on twenty-nine first downs, rushing for a season-high 172 yards on forty carries, converted a ridiculous 13-of-22 third downs, won the takeaway battle 2-1, and possessed the football for a commanding 40:30. Allen accounted for all but eighty-five yards of his team’s total, while outgaining Philadelphia all by himself (420-378), completing 29-of-51 passes, while passing and rushing for two scores apiece. So, how did they manage to lose this one, you ask? Well, apart from some very timely plays from the home side, McDermott’s troops were flagged eleven times for a loss of eighty yards, while ultimately being forced to settle for a field goal on the opening possession of overtime due to some miscommunication between Allen and (veteran Wideout) Gabe Davis. Then, as the birds marched downfield on their ensuing possession, they simply couldn’t stop their balanced approach, eventually shipping the game-winning touchdown to Jalen Hurts on a casual stroll up the middle of the formation into the end zone. In many ways, this contest served as a microcosm of the campaign for Buffalo, who despite getting about 95% of the job done, were once again undone by that lingering 5% left unattended, which we’re sure has given them plenty to think about during their bye week.
From a betting perspective, the Bills may check in at a middling 6-6 straight-up, but they’ve been less-rewarding against the spread, covering just four of their twelve games thus far (4-8 ATS). Since racing out to a 3-1 start versus the spread, this is a team that has covered the line ONCE in their last eight outings, which was their 32-6 route of the lowly Jets (+8). Interestingly, this evening’s showdown at Arrowhead will mark the second consecutive contest in which Buffalo is an underdog. How rare is this, you ask? Well, McDermott’s troops were favored in EVERY game they participated in last season (including playoffs) and have received points from the oddsmakers just twice this Fall, failing to cover on either occasion. For those banking on the law of averages to prevail here, there are a few more things to consider. First, the Bills have failed to cover four of their last five games as a dog, including three straight outings. They are also 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games after amassing 350 total yards in the previous tilt. Buffalo has split the last six meetings with Kansas City, with all three covers coming on the road. Looking at this particular matchup, the last time that they crossed paths at Arrowhead, Allen & Co departed with a 24-20 triumph as 2.5-point favorites. How close was this one, you ask? After a scoreless first quarter, the two sides proceeded to score seventeen points apiece in the next two periods, before the hosts retook the lead with a field goal midway through the final stanza. With 5:21 remaining, Allen engineered a 12-play, 76-yard drive culminating in a 14-yard strike to Knox with just over a minute let on the clock, and while it would have been totally understandable for he and his teammates to suffer PTSD after what happened in their previous encounter at Arrowhead, they managed to close things out as (veteran Cornerback) Taron Johnson picked off Patrick Mahomes. In the end, Buffalo really outplayed the home side in this one, outgaining them 443-387 in total yardage, 125-68 in rushing yards, and won the takeaway battle 2-1. Allen completed 27-of-40 passes for 329 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for another thirty-two yards and a fumble on twelve carries, connecting with Diggs on ten occasions for 148 yards and a score. Johnson and (Sophomore Cornerback) Kaiir Elam both logged an interception, while the aforementioned Miller posted a pair of sacks. Over the course of his career, Allen has met Mahomes five times, though his only two wins have come in the regular season, completing 62.3% of his passes for an average of 276.4 yards on a healthy 7.31 net yards per attempt, with fourteen touchdowns opposed to just two interceptions, while rushing for another 289 yards and a touchdown forty-nine carries. On the injury front, this is a team that should be healthier than they’ve been in recent weeks after finally getting the benefit of the bye, though there are still some names to keep an eye on. Allen is listed as probable with a sore throwing shoulder, while (veteran Edge-Rusher) Leonard Floyd (wrist), (young Cornerback) Dane Jackson (head), and (veteran Safety) Taylor Rapp (neck) all carry the same designation. Elam is listed as questionable with a sore ankle, while the aforementioned Knox could finally return from the broken wrist that has kept him out of action for the last six weeks. The status of Miller also bears watching, as he turned himself into the local police after reports of domestic violence involving his pregnant girlfriend, with NFL headquarters yet to deal out any punishment. Looking ahead, this hellish portion of the schedule doesn’t let up for the Bills, who will play host to the surging Cowboys next week, before traveling cross country to battle the Chargers, followed by division dates with the Patriots and at the Dolphins.
Meanwhile, things are nearly as dire at Arrowhead, though the Chiefs (8-4, 1st in AFC West) have seen more chinks in their proverbial armor exposed in recent weeks, which has in turn knocked them from their perch atop the AFC. Granted, Kansas City isn’t sweating losing their ironclad grip on a division that they lead by two games with five left to play, but this is a team with much greater ambitions than simply getting into the postseason. Indeed, (Head Coach) Andy Reid & Co have been to the Super Bowl in three of the past four seasons, so winning a potential EIGHTH consecutive division crown is only a mere checkpoint on the way to larger goals. With that being said, the reigning Lombardi holders haven’t looked themselves over the past six weeks, alternating losses and wins since being stunned by the Broncos in a 9-24 upset in which they committed FIVE turnovers. During this particular stretch, the offense hasn’t resembled the juggernaut that we’ve come to expect from the Chiefs, who have averaged just 19.4 points on 314.8 total yards, including 206.8 via the pass on a relatively pedestrian 5.38 net yards per attempt, while converting 44.0% of their third downs and failing on four of their seven fourth down attempts. Furthermore, turnovers have been killing them of late, with NINE committed over the last five games, translating to an untenable -6 differential. Listen folks, (reigning MVP) Patrick Mahomes and (perennial All-Pro Tight End) Travis Kelce can make up for a lot of woes, but those kinds of errors are nigh impossible to overcome. And that has become the theme for the season thus far, as Kansas City has misfired on this side of the ball a lot more than we’ve grown accustomed to, with the biggest reason being a young, inexperienced Receiving Corps that simply hasn’t been in synch with Mahomes (pictured below). Again, the 28-year-old is about as good as it gets at his position, but even a generational QB can be done in by unreliable pass-catchers; perhaps the drop that many predicted would come following the exit of (All-Pro Receiver) Tyreek Hill has come a year late, for Mahomes has suffered thirty-one drops thus far, which is nearly as many as last year’s total (33) in five fewer games. Furthermore, his intended targets have dropped 7.3% of his passes, which is nearly two whole percentage points higher than the career-high set last Fall (5.4%). (Veteran Wideouts) Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney, who played key roles in their Super Bowl triumph over the Eagles last February, have combined for five drops thus far, while (Sophomore) Skyy Moore has yet to develop into the playmaker that they envisioned when they drafted him in the second-round last season. (Rookie) Rashee Rice has been the closest thing that Reid has had to a reliable playmaker on the perimeter, with fifty-two catches, 591 yards, and five touchdowns, but he too has been far from consistent. As a result, this offense as a whole has become far more meticulous than it has been since Mahomes ascended to the starting role in 2018, ranking eleventh in scoring (22.9), eighth in total yards (373.1), fourteenth in the red zone (55.6%), and twenty-fifth in turnovers (20). To put that into perspective, they finished last season first in both points (29.2) and total offense (424.7), along with second in the red zone (69.4%). When we last saw the Chiefs, they lost their third games in five outings, as the Packers had their way with them in last Sunday night’s 19-27 affair from Lambeau Field. This one wasn’t quite as close as the final score would lead you to believe, for make no mistake, Green Bay manhandled the visitors. Both sides began with back-to-back lengthy drives, though the difference was that the hosts found the end zone, while their opponent was forced to settle for field goals. Granted, Kansas City opened the second half with consecutive touchdown drives, cutting the deficit to two points, though would get no closer as Mahomes was picked off two plays after a Packers’ field goal of their own, before turning it over on downs to effectively end the game. While the Chiefs’ defense has been their most pleasant surprise of the campaign, they struggled to get off the field that night, as the Packers employed their ball control approach perfectly, rushing for 129 yards and possessing the football for 30:32 of game time. Mahomes & Co always felt like they were behind the proverbial 8-ball, with the two-time MVP completing 21-of-33 passes for 210 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while taking three sacks, seven hits and as many pressures. (Sophomore Tailback) Isiah Pacheco performed well with 110 rushing yards and a touchdown on eighteen carries before eventually being ejected from the game altogether, while Kelce posted a modest four catches for eighty-one yards.
From a betting perspective, the Chiefs may be 8-4 straight-up, but they too have been slightly less-rewarding against the spread in posting a 7-5 record thus far. This is a team that also started quickly in this regard, covering five of their first seven games of the season, only to alternate non-covers and covers over the last five weeks. This supports the fact that this group has generally bounced back from poor performances, covering SEVEN consecutive games following a loss against the spread. Though the line initially opened up with Kansas City being 3.0-point favorites, it currently sits at just 1.5 points, which is significant because Reid’s troops have proven to be a good bet on the rare occasion that the line is so small. Dating back to last year, they are 6-1 against the spread when facing a line of no greater than two points, which includes their triumph over the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII. Interestingly, two has been the magic number in this particular matchup, with that spread separating these two teams in each of their last three encounters. When Mahomes & Co. hosted Buffalo back in early October of 2021, they were run off the field in a 20-38 affair in which they were favored by 2.5 points. Later that winter, they earned a measure of revenge as 2.0-point favorites in that epic 42-36 thriller in the Division Round of the playoffs. Most recently, that aforementioned 20-24 loss from last season that we referenced earlier saw the home side once again favored by just two points. In five career matchups with Allen, Mahomes has fared well, completing an efficient 69.8% of his passes for an average of 307.6 yards per game on a healthy 7.46 net yards per attempt, with twelve touchdowns in comparison to four interceptions. Ironically, the reigning MVP has performed much worse in these regular season encounters, with nearly as many turnovers (5) as touchdowns (6), though he has been nothing short of Superman when they’ve crossed paths in the playoffs. On the injury front, the defense will be shorthanded without the services of (Linebackers) Nick Bolton (wrist) and Drue Tranquill (concussion) along with (young Safety) Bryan Cook (ankle), while (veteran Right Tackle) Donovan Smith (neck) and the aforementioned Pacheco (shoulder) are also out of action with respective ailments. Looking ahead, the schedule lets up considerably for the Chiefs down the stretch, as they travel to Foxborough for a date with the struggling Patriots followed by a Christmas Day clash with the Raiders, an affair with the Bengals, and the regular season finale at the Chargers.