8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Dolphins -14.0, Over/Under: 46.5
Week Fourteen comes to a close in South Florida, where the surging Miami Dolphins look to keep pace with their competition at the top of the stacked AFC in this primetime battle against the struggling Tennessee Titans, who could be primed to pull an upset on Monday Night Football from Hard Rock Stadium. What a three-year period it has been for the Titans (4-8, Last in AFC South), who just two seasons ago caught fire to capture the number one overall seed in the AFC, and carried that momentum over into the following campaign, winning seven of their first ten contests. Unfortunately, and inexplicably, the pendulum swayed in the opposite direction as Tennessee would go on to lose each of their final seven games of the schedule, including a playoff with the Jaguars with the division title on the line. I many ways, that stretch served as a cruel reminder that nothing lasts forever in the NFL, with this team due for a needed overhaul in multiple areas, particularly on the offensive side of the football. That notion has only been strengthened this Fall, as they have dropped six of their last eight games en route to becoming one of the few teams within the competitive AFC without a legitimate pathway to the postseason. So, what in the name of Bruce Matthews is going on in Nashville, you ask? Well, the Titans are in the midst of that aforementioned overhaul, as (Head Coach) Mike Vrabel and (General Manager) Ran Carthon have decided that the future is now. Coming into this Fall it appeared that 2023 was going to serve as the final run with (veteran Quarterback) Ryan Tannehill and (two-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry, who are both entering the twilight of their respective careers, while occupying sizeable portions of the wage bill. It took six games before Tannehill gave way to (Rookie QB) Will Levis, whom the club selected thirty-third overall in last Spring’s NFL Draft, while Henry has continued to drive the proverbial bus with the second-most rushing yards in the league (841). With that being said, the offense hasn’t really flourished with the transition from veteran to rookie, averaging just 18.1 points on 300.7 total yards, including 193.2 yards through the air on 5.65 net yards per attempt, all the while converting a miserable 30.7% of their third downs. However, Levis (pictured below) has offered some encouraging signs during his six starts. First and foremost, this guy has a LIVE arm, averaging a healthy 11.8 yards per completion, which ranks third-best in the AFC since Week Eight. He has also exhibited good decision-making in terms of taking care of the football, tossing seven touchdowns opposed to just two interceptions, including none in the last three weeks of play. Vrabel and Carthon need to build a more cohesive supporting cast around him, particularly along an Offensive Line that has featured the same starting quintet only three times thus far. Hell, he was sacked SIX times in last weekend’s 28-31 overtime thriller against the Colts, despite keeping the hosts in contention until the end. Trailing 17-22 after Indianapolis returned a block punt for six points, Tennessee retaliated by picking off the ensuing two-point conversion and returning it to the house. After the visitors drilled their fourth field goal of the afternoon, Levis engineered an 11-play, 75-yard drive that bled over six minutes of game time, culminating in a short toss from the Quarterback to (veteran Wideout) DeAndre Hopkins to tie the game. Unfortunately (veteran Kicker) Nick Folk missed the extra point, eventually sending the affair into overtime, where the home side would settle for be forced to settle for a field goal on the opening possession. Indy would then drive seventy-five yards in just five plays, with Gardner Minshew finding Michael Pittman for the game-winner. In the end, the Titans held advantages in many categories including total yardage (381-355), first downs (25-19), rushing yards (177-55), and time of possession (38:06), though struggled on third down (6-of-17), failed to convert on their lone attempt on fourth, fumbled FOUR times (two lost), and were flagged nine times for a loss of seventy-four yards. Levis completed 16-of-33 passes for 224 yards and a touchdown, though as we stated earlier was subject to intense pressure throughout the day, taking those six sacks, nine hits, and a dozen pressures, while fumbling on three occasions, losing one. Henry opened the afternoon with a pair of rushing scores en route to 102 yards on twenty-one attempts, though he was forced to depart due to a concussion, leaving his rookie understudy, Tyjae Spears to amass seventy-five yards of his own on sixteen attempts. Hopkins hauled in five catches on twelve targets for seventy-five yards and a touchdown, becoming fifth player in NFL history with 900 catches, 12,000 receiving yards, and seventy-five touchdowns in his first eleven seasons.
From a betting perspective, the Titans may be 4-8 straight-up this Fall, but they have been slightly more rewarding against the spread in posting a 5-7 record. Tennessee got off to an encouraging 3-1 mark in that regard, only to have cooled off considerably since then, covering just two of their last eight outings. Tonight’s trip to South Beach marks the first time this season in which they’ve been an underdog of double-digits, while receiving 10+ points from the oddsmakers for just the third time in the last TWENTY-NINE games. For those wondering, Vrabel’s troops were blown away in each of those two previous contests, including a 7-41 humbling at the Bills (-10) followed by a 13-27 loss to the Cowboys (-13.5) late last December. Speaking of this particular month of the year, December has NOT been kind to the Titans of late, as they are 0-4-2 against the spread in their last six such games. Furthermore, the road has been a treacherous place to boot, with Tennessee failing to cover each of their last FIVE games away from Nashville. Looking at this particular matchup, the home team has won and covered each of the last three meetings dating back to 2017, though this is largest spread that has been seen by either side in this series since 2006. When they last crossed paths, Vrabel & Co clinched the AFC South in a 34-3 blowout at Nissan Stadium, as Tannehill earned a measure of revenge against the team that drafted him, completing 13-of-18 passes for 120 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Defensively, the hosts shut down Miami in relinquishing just 256 total yards, sixteen first downs, seventy-four rushing yards, and a combined 4-of-15 on third and fourth down. You would be hard-pressed to find many offensive playmakers from that afternoon that are expected to participate in this one, folks, as Tannehill is now serving as Levis’ backup while Henry missed that encounter due to a broken bone in his foot. However, (veteran Defensive Lineman) Denico Autry, who logged a sack on that day, has been in fine form this Fall, tying his career of NINE sacks. On the injury front, the Titans have definitely been one of the more banged-up teams in the NFL this season, what with nine different players on injured reserve and another three starters pronounced out for this primetime tilt; (Pro-Bowl Defensive Tackle) Jeffery Simmons (knee), (Tight End) Josh Whyle knee), and (Cornerback) Kristian Fulton (hamstring) are all sidelined with various ailments. Looking ahead, the role of spoiler appears to be the only thing left for Tennessee at this point, who face Houston twice followed by Jacksonville in the regular season finale, with a visit from Seattle thrown in there for good measure.
Meanwhile, it has been quite a while since the Dolphins (9-3, 1st in AFC East) have enjoyed success like this during the regular season. With a win tonight, they would earn double-digit victories for just the third time since 2008, while also moving back into first place in the competitive AFC. Now in the second season of the Mike McDaniel era, Miami has rounded into a legitimate contender thanks in large part to their ability to generate big plays on both sides of the football. McDaniel’s stellar play-calling coupled with the presence of (All-Pro Receiver) Tyreek Hill has turned the offense into a high-powered machine that leads the NFL in total yards (437.2), passing yards (293.9), yards per rush (5.3), rushing scores (22), and red zone percentage (75.0%). Speed, speed, and more speed has allowed this unit to field lethal weapons at multiple positions, with the likes of Hill (pictured below), (young Receiver) Jaylen Waddle, (veteran Tailback) Raheem Mostert, and (Rookie RB) De’Von Achane, four of the fastest players in the league. In today’s NFL, explosive plays often lead to success, and these Fins have produced plenty of them; they lead the league in plays of 10+ yards (188), 25+ yards (39), and 50+ yards (10), each by a healthy margin. This is where Hill comes into play, folks, with the freakishly fast pass-catcher terrorizing defenses with his vertical speed. With 1,481 receiving yards and a dozen touchdowns, the 29-year-old leads the league in both categories and is on pace to break the single-season record for yardage (1,964), set by Calvin Johnson back in 2012. When we last saw him, he was busy torching the Commanders in last weekend’s 45-15 drubbing at FedEx Field, reeling in five receptions on seven targets for 157 yards and a pair of scores. Hell, he had about 120 yards in the first half alone, kicking things off with a 78-yard BOMB on their opening drive of the day, before striking again midway through the second quarter with a 60-yard score from (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Tua Tagovailoa to break the game wide open. When it was all said and done, the Dolphins held significant advantages in total yards (406-245), first downs (20-11), passing yards (283-127), and time of possession (32:16). Tagovailoa completed 18-of-24 passes for 280 yards and those two touchdowns to Hill, while the tandem of Mostert and Achane combined for 116 rushing yards and three touchdowns on twenty-eight carries. It was his first full game back from a knee injury that had sidelined Achane for five weeks, and the explosive Rookie got right back into the swing of things with 103 yards from scrimmage and two rushing scores on twenty touches. His nine total touchdowns through the first six games of his career are tied for the second-most in NFL history with the legendary Gale Sayers. However, as good as Miami’s offense has been this year, another reason that they have ascended to the top of the AFC has been the play of their defense, which under (Defensive Coordinator) Vic Fangio has become more formidable as the season has progressed. Over the last five games, Fangio’s unit has yielded just 15.8 points on a mere 237.0 total yards, including 162.4 yards against the pass on a mere 4.6 net yards per attempt, with more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (6). Furthermore, they’ve logged SEVENTEEN sacks during this stretch, and relegated the opposition to a 31.1% success rate in the red zone. On one hand, this is a case of their prolific offense applying such pressure on opponents to keep pace with them that the defense can in turn pin their ears back and attack. Fangio has long been one of the best strategists in the NFL, particularly when it comes dialing up exotic coverages and blitzes on third down, which has led to three defensive scores, forty-one sacks, and a third down rate of 36.5% (9th Overall).
From a betting perspective, the Dolphins may be 9-3 straight-up thus far, but they have been slightly less-rewarding against the spread, posting an 8-4 record in that regard. The theme for Miami this Fall has been when they win outright, they almost always cover, and when they lose outright, the fail to beat the spread as well. Then again, that is what happens when you become sizable favorites from week to week; since that 70-20 drubbing of the Broncos back in late September, they have been favored by nine or more points on in SIX of a possible nine games. For inquiring minds, McDaniel’s troops are 4-1 against the spread this season when favored by 9+ points, including each of the last three outings (2-1 ATS). As we stated earlier, the home team has held the advantage of late in this series, with the Fins winning and covering each of the last two meetings that have been contested at Hard Rock Stadium. When these teams last met on South Beach, Tannehill had yet to lose the favor of his former employers, while Tennessee’s Vrabel was in the midst of his first season as Head Coach. Looking back on their most recent meeting, that 3-34 drubbing in Nashville that were referenced earlier, the Dolphins were in the last days of the Brian Flores era, with that dismal performance only pushing the former skipper further out of the building. After suffering a miserable 1-7 start, Miami was riding a 7-game winning streak in hopes of sneaking into the postseason, only for their dreams to come crashing down at Nissan Stadium. Tagovailoa had particularly rough day at the office in this one, completing just 18-of-38 passes for 205 yards and an interception, while suffering FOUR sacks, NINE pressures, and THREE fumbles (one lost). Fast-forwarding to the present, the injury list bears watching for these Fins, who placed (starting Linebacker) Jerome Baker, who had seven tackles and a sack in that affair, on injured reserve with an ailing knee, while (Guard) Robert Hunt is out of action after aggravating his hamstring in last weekend’s trip to Washington. Furthermore, (Left Tackle) Terron Armstead is listed as questionable with a bulky knee of his own, though (emerging Safety) Javon Holland could make his return after missing last week with a knee malady of his own. Looking ahead, for those of you who have consistently lamented this team’s lack of wins against quality opponents, the moment of truth if on the horizon for McDaniel & Co; following next weekend’s date with the lowly Jets, they will play host to the surging Cowboys, before hitting the road for a clash with the Ravens, and a return home for the regular season finale against the Bills, with all three of those contests carrying heavy playoff implications.