8:15 PM EST, NFL Network – Line: Lions – 4.5, Over/Under: 47.5
A Saturday triple-header comes to a head tonight in the Motor City, as the Detroit Lions look to maintain their playoff push as they host the like-minded Denver Broncos, who have emerged as one of the hotter teams over the second half of the campaign. Indeed, it has been a tale of two seasons for the Broncos (7-6, 2nd in AFC West), who in their first season under the leadership of (Head Coach) Sean Payton have successfully righted the ship following a very slow start. Needless to say, things did not begin quickly for Payton’s ponies, who failed to launch over and over again through the first six weeks; offensively, Denver was self-destructive, averaging 21.5 points on just 306.3 total yards and suffering from ELEVEN turnovers, while the defense struggled to find their footing under the new coaching staff, yielding 33.3 points on 440.3 total yards, punctuated by an embarrassing 20-70 loss at Miami. During this period, Payton and his staff continued to evaluate the roster, with rumors circulating that they would become major seller at the trade deadline. However, these thoroughbreds stood largely pat, which must have given the players a sense of trust and confidence in the new regime, because since that point they have played at a higher level than anything we’ve seen out of them in the previous eighteen months. 6-1 over their last seven outings, the Broncos have largely cleaned up their mistakes on the offensive side of the football (7 turnovers), while the defense has transformed under the direction of (Defensive Coordinator) Vance Joseph, totaling EIGHTEEN takeaways during this stretch, which parlays to a much healthier +11 differential. The biggest difference has been the improvement of (veteran Quarterback) Russell Wilson, who has finally taken to Payton’s system and playcalling. Simply put, Wilson’s (pictured below) first season in Denver was nothing short of a disaster, with the perennial Pro-Bowler registering career-lows across the board after being expected to lift the franchise out of the QB doldrums. Payton’s main task in this first year at Mile High, was resetting the former Super Bowl-winner, which proved to be a slower process than most had thought. However, the 35-year-old has performed well during this stretch, largely due to being less reckless with the football and simply managing the game, while making a few key plays late to give his team the edge. Over the last seven contests, Wilson has completed 68.3% of his attempts for an average of just 186.3 yards on 6.28 net yards per attempt, with eleven touchdowns in comparison to four interceptions, while rushing for another 165 yards and two scores to boot. This was the case in last weekend’s 24-7 victory over the Chargers, which was the club’s first on the road against a division rival in FOUR seasons and their first at SoFi Stadium since it opened. This one was ALL Broncos, folks, as the visitors knocked (Los Angeles QB) Justin Herbert out of the game late in the first half, with Joseph’s defense firing on all cylinders. Denver relegated Los Angeles to 283 total yards on seventeen first downs, including seventy-six yards via the run and 0-of-12 on third down, along 1-of-6 on fourth, which should give you an idea as to what kind of day at the office it was for the home side. Wilson was once again solid if unspectacular, completing 21-of-33 passes for 224 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while (veteran Tailback) Javonte Williams piling up ninety-one yards from scrimmage and a rushing score on twenty touches, with (veteran Receiver) Courtland Sutton reeling in three receptions for sixty-two yards and a touchdown of his own. Getting back to Joseph’s unit, the visitors sacked the Chargers’ Quarterbacks SIX times, hit them on EIGHT occasions, and logged ELEVEN pressures, with a half-dozen different players earning a sack, and (third-year Linebacker) Jonathan Cooper snaring an interception.
From a betting perspective, the Broncos may be 7-6 straight-up thus far, but they have been less rewarding to those who have wagered on them this Fall, posting a mediocre 5-7-1 record against the spread. With that being said, Payton’s troops have been far more profitable than they were throughout the first six weeks of the campaign in which they failed to cover a single contest (0-5-1 ATS). Since then, they have beat the spread in five out of seven games, including last weekend’s trip to SoFi where they beat the brakes off the Chargers in that aforementioned affair as 3-point underdogs. Denver has gone 4-5-1 versus the spread in their last ten trips away from Mile High, while covering six of their last ten outings as an underdog. Looking at this particular matchup, these franchises don’t cross paths very often, but when they have, it has been the Broncos that have generally come out on top; the ponies have taken five of seven meetings dating back to 1999 (4-3 ATS), though have tasted victory in the Motory City just once during that span (2015). Their most recent encounter came two years ago at Empower Field, in which the hosts climbed over .500 against the struggling felines, who were still very much in the early stages of another rebuild. That 38-10 blowout was rather close at halftime, with the hosts heading into intermission with a narrow 17-10 lead, though the second half proved to be a very different story with TWENTY-OE unanswered points. Denver rushed for 184 yards and three touchdowns on thirty-nine carries, with Williams churning out seventy-five three yards and a score on thirteen carries, while hauling in another 10-yard score to boot. The home side also won the takeaway battle 2-0, with (veteran Safety) Justin Simmons intercepting Jared Goof (much more on him in a bit). Of course, the aforementioned Wilson wouldn’t join the club until the following Fall, though that is not to say that he isn’t familiar with Detroit. As a member of the Seahawks, the 9-time Pro-Bowler has faced the Lions on five occasions, winning four of them and completing an efficient 73.8% of his passes for an average of 251.8 yards on a healthy 8.78 net yards per attempt, with ten touchdowns opposed to just one interception, while rushing for another eighty-eight yards as well. He’s also very familiar with Goff, whom he shared a division with between 2016 and 2020, winning four of ten clashes (including playoffs). On the injury front, Payton & Co will be without (Outside Linebacker) Nik Bonitto (knee) and (young Tight End) Greg Dulcich (hamstring) for tonight’s trip to Motown, while (veteran Safety) Kareem Jackson will continue to serve his second suspension of the season, once again for repeated unnecessary roughness in the field of play. Looking ahead, if the Broncos have a playoff push in them, then the remainder of the schedule appears inviting, as the Patriots, Chargers, and Raiders await them, with all three opponents sitting below .500.
Meanwhile, the Lions (9-4, 1st in NFC North) know something about slow starts and righting ships, though with all due respect to (Head Coach) Dan Campbell & Co, we are far more interested in seeing if they how they perform now that they have legitimate expectations hanging over their heads. Arguably the feelgood story of the season through the first two months, Detroit has suddenly found the road to the postseason to be more arduous than initially projected, which has some wondering whether or not this team is built for a playoff run. Indeed, these cats got off to a stellar 8-2 start, their best since the early 1960s, which coupled with the relative struggles and misfortune of their NFC North brethren meant that this franchise that hasn’t sat atop the division since 1993, would be dancing their way across the finish line. Hell, they even had a legitimate shot at the number one overall seed in the conference for a bit, before splitting their last four games. So, what in the name of Billy Sims has happened to these Lions, you ask? Well, it is no secret that their two losses (and very nearly a third) during this stretch have come at the hands of division rivals, with the Bears and Packers both taking them to task. Turnovers has become a major issue for Detroit of late, committing TEN in those three games alone, all of nine of which charged to (veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff. Now, we’re not going to take anything away from Goff (pictured below), who has endured one of the most unevenly interesting careers in recent memory. The former number one overall pick struggled MIGHTLY as a rookie, only reach the Super Bowl under the direction of Sean McVay, where he would eventually lose the favor of the Head Coach, who packaged along with a plethora of draft picks to Detroit, where he would rebuild his reputation and ego. Simply put, his was one of the best comeback stories of 2022, with his growing mastery of (Offensive Coordinator) Ben Johnson’s scheme convincing the franchise to stick with him for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, some of those old flaws that plagued him in Los Angeles have followed him to the Motor City; when he’s good, he’s great, but when he plays poorly it can be downright disastrous, with ball security becoming a major problem. Furthermore, he continues to struggle outdoors in cold temperatures, which was the case in last weekend’s 13-28 defeat at the Bears. At 36 degrees and winds around twelve miles per hour, the California product completed just 20-of-35 passes for a mere 161 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and a lost fumble, while suffering four sacks, nine hits, and eleven pressures. As a team, the visitors could muster just 267 total yards on thirteen first downs, converted 6-of-15 third downs, 1-of-5 on fourth down, and possessed the football for 26:41 of game time despite rushing for 140 yards on twenty-four carries. Then again, that is what happens when you lose the turnover battle 0-3, while (Defensive Coordinator) Aaron Glenn’s unit struggled to contain the suddenly vigorous Bears. With injuries depleting their depth in the Secondary, this isn’t a defense that can employ man coverages throughout the game, which means that they need what has been one of the most balanced attacks in the NFL to keep them fresh on the sidelines. Again, that just hasn’t been the case; since suffering a 6-38 drubbing at Baltimore, the Lions have shipped 28.7 points on 355.7 total yards, including 231.3 passing yards on 7.4 net yards per attempt, with thirteen touchdowns through the air in comparison to three interceptions.
From a betting perspective, the Lions are 9-4 straight-up thus far and have been nearly as rewarding to the gambling community (8-5 ATS) if not for this recent dip in form. Simply put, Campbell’s troops roared early and often this Fall, winning and covering seven of their first nine games. However, ever since a close call at home against the Bears just before their annual Thanksgiving festivities, Detroit has split their last four outings, while covering the spread in just one of them, a 33-28 victory at New Orleans (-4). With that being said, this is a team that has covered seven of their last ten tilts at Ford Field, while matching that record in their last ten games as a favorite. Furthermore, this pride has proven to be rather resilient under the leadership of Campbell, covering SIX consecutive games following an outright defeat, while also logging four straight covers over winning opponents in Motown. Unfortunately, they do not have much of a positive history when it comes to playing on Saturdays, posting a 1-5 mark against the spread on this particular day of the week. Looking at this particular matchup, the Lions have both lost and failed to cover each of the last three meetings, with their most recent success in this series coming back in 2011. When they met in that aforementioned 10-38 drubbing at Mile High two years ago, Campbell & Co were still trying to find their footing late in the first year of their rebuild with a 1-11-1 record. The visitors managed to keep things competitive in the first half, with a 7-yard touchdown pass from Goff to (young Receiver) Khalif Raymond followed by a Riley Patterson field goal cutting the deficit to seven before halftime. Unfortunately, they were blanked in the second half 0-21 in what was an otherwise ugly offensive showing. Detroit totaled 316 yards on seventeen first downs, converted just 5-of-14 third downs, forcing them to attempt five fourths, succeeding thrice. Goff completed 24-of-39 passes for 215 yards, that touchdown and an interception, while suffering a pair of sacks and seven pressures. St. Brown hauled in eight receptions on a dozen targets for seventy-three yards, while (undrafted Tailback) Craig Reynolds rushed for eighty-three yards on just eleven carries, with another sixteen yards on two catches. Speaking of Goff, he should be very familiar with his opposing number tonight, particularly given their history on opposing teams within the NFC West. Since 2016, the veteran has faced off against Wilson on ten occasions, with the former number one overall selection taking six of those encounters, including their most recent, a 20-10 Rams victory over the Seahawks in the 2020 Playoffs. On the injury front, the Offensive Line bears watching for these Lions, with (Left Tackle) Taylor Decker and (Center) Frank Ragnow listed as questionable with back and knee maladies, while (Defensive Tackle) Benito Jones carries that same designation with a sore neck. Looking ahead, Detroit will be looking to sew up the NFC North next weekend as they travel to Minneapolis for a showdown with the resilient Vikings, before heading to Dallas for a primetime clash that carries heavy postseason implications.