4:25 PM EST, FOX – Line: Bills -2.0, Over/Under: 49.5
With the playoffs on the horizon, a sense of urgency has swept across the league, with both the Dallas Cowboys and the Buffalo Bills well acquainted with that feeling, as each team has designs on finally moving past the postseason roadblocks that have halted them in the past. Of course, for a very particular generation of fans from two very different parts of the country, there is a great deal of nostalgia associated with this matchup, as it headlined both Super Bowl XXVII and XXVIII in the early 90s. For fans of the Cowboys (10-3, 1st in NFC East), those are clearly the fondest of memories, taking them back to the glory years for a franchise that has been desperate to relive them for quite some time now. By now, we all know the ongoing story of Dallas, who since last hoisting the Lombardi Trophy back in February of 1996, have gone TWENTY-EIGHT years without so much as advancing to an NFC Championship Game. Well, with four weeks left in the regular season, this current iteration of America’s Team appears to be well-positioned to finally break that drought. At this point of the campaign, you would be hard-pressed to find a team hotter than (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy’s, who have been firing on all cylinders for roughly eight weeks now, leading the NFL at 32.4 points per game on 397.0 total yards (4th Overall), while relinquishing just 17.9 points (4th Overall) on 289.9 total yads (3rd Overall). The pressure was on McCarthy, who took over playcalling duties following the dismissal of (former Offensive Coordinator) Kellen Moore, and the 60-year-old has been up to the task, with his unit not only pacing the league in points, but doing so in a much more efficient fashion than they did a year ago; the Cowboys have committed the fewest turnovers in the league (11), while converting on nearly half of their third downs (49.2%), which also leads the NFL. This shift has also had a profoundly positive effect on (veteran Quarterback) Dak Prescott, who a year after tossing a career-high fifteen interceptions, has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate this Fall. Simply put, THIS is the Prescott (pictured below) that the franchise envisioned when they signed him to that lucrative extension a few years ago, with the 30-year-old posting career-bests in a slew of categories, including completion percentage (69.3%), touchdown percentage (6.2%), passer rating (107.5), and QBR (74.6), which he sits atop the league in. To put this into perspective, he went from tossing twenty-three touchdowns to fifteen picks in 2022 to TWENTY-EIGHT touchdowns opposed to just SIX interceptions thus far in 2023. Since getting thumped in San Francisco back in early October, he and the Cowboys have been WHITE-HOT, besting their opponents by an average margin of 17.1 points per game, with their Quarterback completing 69.3% of his throws for an average of 305.5 yards on 7.98 net yards per attempt with TWENTY-THREE touchdowns to only TWO interceptions, while rushing for another pair of scores to boot. The only loss during this stretch was a 23-28 affair in Philadelphia, though McCarthy & Co would get their revenge in last weekend’s primetime romp over the reigning NFC Champions at AT&T Stadium. Trust us, folks, this 33-13 victory wasn’t quite as close as the final score would lead you to believe, for the hosts moved the pigskin up and down the field last Sunday (394 total yards), converting an insane 9-of-16 third downs and possessing the football for a commanding 36:36. If not for FOUR field goals of 45+ yards from (Rookie Kicker) Brandon Aubrey, then this one would have been UGLY. Dallas raced out to a 10-0 advantage in the first quarter, beginning with a 13-yard strike from Prescott to (Pro-Bowl Receiver) CeeDee Lamb, before breaching the end zone two more times before intermission via a short rushing score from (Backup Tailback) Rico Dowdle and another aerial touchdown, this time courtesy of Prescott to (veteran Wideout) Michael Gallup to increase their lead to 24-6. Apart from a 42-yard fumble return to the house by the visitors, the only points on the board came from Aubrey, who tacked on nine in the second half. When it was all said and done, Prescott completed 24-of-39 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns and a lost fumble, while Lamb hauled in six receptions on ten targets for seventy-one yards and that aforementioned score, while ((emerging Tight End) Jake Ferguson continued to impress with five catches for a team-best seventy-two yards. Defensively, (Defensive Coordinator) Dan Quinn’s unit relegated the Eagles to just 324 total yards and six points, forcing and recovering THREE fumbles to keep the birds out of the end zone.
From a betting perspective, the Cowboys are 10-3 straight-up and 9-4 against the spread thus far, proving to be one of the most rewarding teams in the NFL to wager upon this Fall. During this 5-game win streak, they have covered all but one of their outings, with a narrow 41-35 midweek victory over the Seahawks (+9.5) serving as their only loss. With that being said, tonight’s trip to Orchard Park marks just the third time this season in which Dallas has been branded an underdog, which could be a case of foreshadowing; McCarthy’s troops lost both of those contests outright, the first being a 10-42 drubbing at the hands of the Niners and the other being that aforementioned defeat in Philadelphia. In fact, this is a team that has failed to cover four of their last five affairs as an underdog, including three straight games. Furthermore, they have dropped four consecutive outings as a road dog. Looking at this particular matchup, the ‘Boys won those two Super Bowl encounters by a combined FIFTY-TWO points, but since then have crossed paths just six times in twenty-four years. The Cowboys have dropped each of the last two tilts and haven’t beaten Buffalo since 2011. For the sake of relevance, their most recent matchup, a 15-26 loss in North Texas featured many faces that still ply their trade for their respective teams. The hosts opened their ledgers earlier with a short touchdown from Prescott to (former Tight End) Jason Witten, though the Bills would proceed to run off TWENTY-SIX unanswered points, until a consolation score made the game look more competitive. Dallas, then led by (former HC) Jason Garrett, outgained the visitors 426-356 in total yardage and converted 7-of-13 third downs, though were ultimately done in by their own mistakes. Prescott was picked off and lost a fumble on back-to-back possessions, but missed field goals in the ensuing two drives, before failing to convert on fourth down on each of the following to possessions as well. The signal-caller completed 32-of-49 passes for 355 yards and a pair of touchdowns to go with those two turnovers, while suffering four sacks, seven hits, and ten pressures on the day. On the injury front, (veteran Defensive Tackle) Jonathan Hankins is out today with ankle and knee maladies, while (veteran Safety) Malik Hooker is listed as questionable with an ailing knee. Looking ahead, the schedule doesn’t let up for these Cowboys, who will travel to South Beach for a date with the high-powered Dolphins next weekend, before returning home for a Saturday night showdown with the NFC North-leading Lions, which figures to have heavy playoff implications for two sides gunning for the number one overall seed in the NFC.
Meanwhile, fans of the Bills (7-6, 2nd in AFC East) undoubtedly have VERY DIFFERENT feelings about those two Super Bowl encounters from the early 90s, with many suggesting that the franchise has been suffering PTSD from those crushing defeats for three decades now. While we’re not going to argue that one bit, it should be noted that after years of living in the proverbial wilderness, this is a franchise that done an excellent job of rebuilding themselves into a perennial contender. Under the direction of (Head Coach) Sean McDermott and (General Manager) Brandon Beane, Buffalo has reached the playoffs five times in six years, while winning the AFC East in each of the last three seasons. However, similar to their opponent this evening, achieving postseason glory has been a much tougher task, with three consecutive such defeats putting intense pressure on the organization to finally get over the hump. Unfortunately, rather than get over the hump, it appears that they have regressed this Fall. If the playoffs began today, McDermott & Co would be on the outside looking, thanks in large part to a chaotic midseason swoon that saw the defense ravaged by injury and (Offensive Coordinator) Ken Dorsey relieved of his post due to repeated errors from the offense, and more particularly (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Josh Allen. It really is remarkable that a team that has outscored their opponents by a sizeable margin of 104 points (8.0), ranking fifth in total offense (387.2), and second on both third down (48.8%) and in the red zone (66.7%), has struggled like they have, but that is going to be the case when that same team commits an untenable TWENTY-ONE turnovers. Hell, during an 8-game stretch in which they slumped to 6-6 following a strong 3-1 start, the Bills turned the ball over FIFTEEN times for a differential of -5. In the eye of the storm has been Allen (pictured below), who despite being one of the most prolific passers in the NFL over the last three seasons, has also been one of its most error-prone; since 2021, no Quarterback has accounted for more touchdowns (119) than the 27-year-old, though none have committed more turnovers to boot (54). In many ways, these mistakes are a byproduct of how Allen plays, with his supreme physical gifts allowing him to make plays that other players at his position simply cannot, which has also been the biggest component of their success during that stretch. Whereas his counterpart this evening has done a tremendous job of cleaning up those errors, Allen has been victimized; his fourteen interceptions match his total from last Fall, while eleven turnovers during that aforementioned period helped perpetuate their woes. Fortunately, the bye week arrived in time for he and his teammates to take a step back and course-correct themselves, which resulted in a sorely needed 20-17 victory last weekend in Kansas City. This triumph was notable for a variety of reasons, folks, none more so than the symbolism of potentially saving their season at Arrowhead Stadium, which is the same venue where they have suffered multiple playoff heartbreaks. McDermott’s troops set the tone early, picking off (reigning MVP) Patrick Mahomes on the opening drive of the evening, before Allen engineered back-to-back touchdown drives, the first resulting in a 25-yard score to (Sophomore Tailback) James Cook, while the second traveled seventy-three yards in a dozen plays, ending with a short jaunt into the end zone from Allen himself. Before the visitors could add more points before halftime, Allen was intercepted leading directly to a Chiefs touchdown, making it 14-7 in favor of Buffalo heading into intermission. The visiting side would be held to a field goal on the opening possession of the second half, followed by a touchdown courtesy of Mahomes to cut the deficit to three points late in the third quarter. The home side would tie the affair 17-17 early in the final stanza, setting up what was to be yet another climactic finish, though Allen would engineer a 12-play, 48-yard drive punctuated by a 39-yard field goal from Tyler Bass. Undeterred, Kansas City would drive downfield, and thought that they scored the game-winning touchdown on an improvised lateral from Travis Kelce to Kadarius Toney, only for the life to be sucked right out of the stadium when it was revealed that Toney had been flagged offsides for lining up in the neutral zone at the time of the snap, erasing the score, and eventually ending the game. When it was all said and done, Allen & Co amassed 327 total yards on twenty-one first downs, maximizing possession with 35:21 of game clock thanks to 118 rushing yards on a balanced twenty-eight carries. Allen completed 23-of-42 passes for 233 yards, a touchdown and an interception apiece, while rushing for another thirty-two yards and that aforementioned score. Cook continued to impress with his versatile skillset, totaling 141 yards from scrimmage on fifteen touches, the most of nine different players to catch a pass.
From a betting perspective, the Bills may be 7-6 straight-up but they have been less rewarding against the spread, posting a disappointing 5-8 record in that regard thus far. After covering three of their first four outings, Buffalo inexplicably became one of the worst bets in the NFL this Fall, as they failed to cover SEVEN of their next nine contests, including a streak of SIX consecutive non-covers. Interestingly, their downturn in form coupled with stronger opposition has seen them branded as underdogs in each of the last two games, a wild 34-37 overtime affair in Philadelphia (+2.5) followed by last weekend’s triumph at Arrowhead (+1.5). Of course, they are favored in this evening’s clash with the Cowboys, but at just two points, this is the smallest margin that they have been favored by of the season. McDermott’s charges are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games at Highmark Stadium, while matching that mark over their last five outings as favorite. Looking at this particular matchup, the Bills have won and covered each of the last two meetings in this series, though they have only crossed paths twice in the last eleven years. When they encountered each other in that aforementioned 26-15 affair in North Texas, Allen & Co announced themselves to the world in a primetime affair during the holiday season. After conceding seven points in the first quarter, the visitors ran off TWENTY-SIX unanswered points to quiet the crowd at AT&T Stadium. Allen shredded the home side, completing 19-of-24 passes for 231 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for another forty-three yards and a score, with (former Cowboys Wideout) Cole Beasley paying his former employers back with 110 yards and a touchdown on six receptions. Defensively, McDermott’s unit bent (426 yards allowed) but rarely broke, turning Dallas over twice and stopped them on fourth down as many times. (Veteran Defensive Tackle) Ed Oliver turned up in this one, logging a pair of sacks, a tackle for loss, a pair of pressures, and a strip sack of Prescott to turn the tables on Big D. On the injury front, it is no secret that the defense has been missing many notable pieces, including (veteran Cornerback) Tre’Davious White (ACL) and (Middle Linebacker) Matt Milano (leg), who are both out for the season. However, (Defensive Lineman) A.J. Epenesa (ribs) and (veteran Safety) Micah Hyde (neck) are both out of action today with various ailments, though (Sophomore Cornerback) Kaiir Elam is listed as questionable to participate with a tender ankle. Looking ahead, if the Bills wish to reach the postseason for a fifth straight year, then there is very little margin for error moving forward; they travel cross country to meet the fading Chargers, before returning to Orchard Park for the second leg of the annual series with the Patriots, setting up what could be a seismic clash with the Dolphins, which could see the fate of the division on the line.