8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Eagles -3.5, Over/Under: 45.0
Week Fifteen comes to a close in the Pacific Northwest, where a pair of teams who have been contemplating their mortality in recent weeks look to course-correct themselves in lieu of the playoffs, as the struggling Seattle Seahawks play host to the (reigning NFC Champion) Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football. With thirteen games in the books, it has become crystal clear that these Eagles (10-3, T-1st in NFC East) are NOT the same group that steamrolled their way to an appearance in Super Bowl LVII last February. Then again, how could they have given the exodus of players and coaches that they endured over the offseason? Ever since the advent of free agency, this has been a cold byproduct of success, as such franchises often become subject to attrition with the rest of the league looking to replicate what worked so well for them. With that in mind, Philadelphia is no different, having lost EIGHT starters from last season (SIX on defense), along with both their Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon, who became Head Coaches of the Colts and Cardinals respectively. Granted, thanks to the good work of (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni and (longtime General Manager) Howie Roseman, this roster was loaded with quality depth, though the exodus of those coaches appears to be the biggest difference between the 2022 incarnation of these birds and the one that we’ve been privy to this Fall. Simply put, coaching matters in the NFL, and when you fail to adequately replace not one, but two of them, then you could take a serious step backwards, which brings us to the tandem of (OC) Brian Johnson and (DC) Sean Desai. In the case of the former, Johnson was always the logical candidate to succeed Steichen given that served as Quarterbacks Coach for the past two years, playing a key role in the ascension of (Pro-Bowler) Jalen Hurts. However, while the offense has been almost as prolific as it was a year ago, it has been far less consistent due to a negative turnover differential of -4. In 2022, the Eagles were +8 in this category, with Hurts taking great care of the football with just eight giveaways on the season. Unfortunately, his ball security has gone by the wayside in 2023, as the 25-year-old has FIFTEEN turnovers thus far, including ten interceptions and five lost fumbles. With that being said, this is still an offense that ranks in the top-10 in points (26.3), total yards (373.4), and third down percentage (47.7%), so the regression has been minor. The same cannot be said of the defense which has proven to be the Achilles heel for Philadelphia, so much so that Sirianni has decided to make a change. Simply put, Desai has struggled to find his footing with this talented group, oftentimes appearing unaware of their strengths and flaws. Last season, this unit ranked eighth in points allowed (20.2), second in total defense (301.4), first against the pass (179.8), and fifth in takeaways (27), thanks in large part to a legendary SEVENTY sacks. This Fall, the pass defense has been far too generous, shipping 259.9 yards (29th Overall) on 6.0 net yards per attempt (15th Overall), with the second-most touchdowns (29) in comparison to just six interceptions (29th Overall), while allowing opponents to convert an untenable 48.1% of their attempts on third down (32nd Overall) and 70.5% of their red zone opportunities (30th Overall). Again, losing both starting Safeties and a pair of excellent coverage Linebackers hurts this group in a multitude of ways, while the pass-rush itself, while strong (37 sacks), hasn’t come close to reaching the level of its predecessor. For this reason, Sirianni has opted to basically demote Desai, sending him upstairs to the booth while in turn promoting (Senior Defensive Assistant) Matt Patricia to the role of playcaller. Now, for those of you not familiar with Patricia (pictured below), the 49-year-old was a key component of the New England Patriots coaching staff from 2004 to 2017, serving as Bill Belichick’s Defensive Coordinator for six years, which included a pair of Super Bowl triumphs. Granted, he proved to be a disaster as the Head Coach of the Lions (13-29-1 in less than 3 seasons), but the guy certainly knows a thing or two about the defensive side of the football. There must be a belief behind the scenes that Patricia can stabilize this unit down the stretch, perhaps from a schematic point of view, otherwise making such a change is a clear sign of desperation. Then again, this defense has relinquished 36.3 points and 451.7 yards over the last three games to the likes of the Bills, 49ers, and Cowboys, with that last affair proving to be the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back. After shipping SIX straight touchdowns on as many possessions against San Francisco, Philadelphia fell behind 6-24 in last weekend’s trip to AT&T Stadium, which was all the hosts really needed to earn the win. Sure, (Rookie Defensive Tackle) Jalen Carter was responsible for their lone touchdown of the night with a 42-yard scoop-and-score early in the second half, but that would it for these birds, who simply couldn’t crack the code on the Dallas defense. In his last outing calling defensive plays, Desai’s troops allowed 394 total yards on twenty-four first downs, including 138 rushing yards on thirty-two carries, and 9-of-16 on third down, with the hosts controlling possession for 36:36 of game time. On the flipside, the offense was dreadful for Philly, committing three turnovers and being flagged ten times for ninety-five yards in losses. Hurts went 18-of-27 for 197 yards and zero scores, while rushing for thirty yards on five carries. The stellar pass-catching tandem of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for fourteen receptions and 167 yards, but neither managed to cross the end zone.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles may be 10-3 straight up this Fall, but they haven’t nearly as rewarding against the spread, posting a 7-4-2 record in that regard. After alternating covers and non-covers over the first eight weeks of the campaign, it appeared that they had finally learned to fly with three consecutive covers, only for the law of averages to insert itself with back-to-back spread losses. Coincidentally, both of those defeats came as an underdog, which marked only the THIRD time since 2021 in which Philadelphia found themselves receiving points from the oddsmakers. However, they’re back to being favored tonight in this expedition to the Pacific Northwest, which is notable given that this is a team that is 6-2-2 in their last ten such outings, including unbeaten in their last four contests (2-0-2 ATS). Looking at this particular matchup, this battle of the birds has been very one-sided, as the Eagles haven’t beaten the Seahawks in over a decade, losing SEVEN straight encounters dating back to 2008 (1-6 ATS). Furthermore, they haven’t left Seattle victorious in three straight trips to Lumen Field. When these teams last crossed paths, it was three years ago on Monday Night Football, in which Philadelphia suffered a narrow 17-23 defeat. After a scoreless first quarter, the visitors raced out to a 14-0 lead, before (veteran Tight End) Dallas Goedert added a touchdown to cut the deficit to eight points at intermission. The game devolved into a field goal fest in the second half, with (veteran Kicker) Jake Elliott drawing his side closer with a 42-yarder before Seattle stretched their advantage to 23-9 with three field goals in four possessions, before the hosts made the affair look closer with a consolation touchdown with twelve seconds left to play. In the end, neither team wowed offensively, as Philly amassed just 250 total yards, thanks in large part to self-inflicted wounds, such as an interception thrown by (former QB) Carson Wentz, three failed attempts on fourth down, and nine penalties for a loss of seventy-nine yards. This one was notable for the fact that Hurts, then a rookie, got some reps on the field, completing his lone pass attempt in place of Wentz, who left the field of play after a jarring hit. (Defensive Linemen) Derek Barnett and Fletcher Cox each logged a sack and combined for three hits and four pressures, while (veteran Cornerback) Darius Slay had his hands full covering D.K. Metcalf (more on him in a bit), shipping ten completions for 168 yards on thirteen targets. On the injury front, Slay’s name headlines the list of inactive players for this primetime matchup, with the 5-time Pro-Bowler undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery earlier in the week, effectively shelving him for the remainder of the regular season. (Veteran Linebacker) Zach Cunningham (knee) and (young Interior Lineman) Cameron Jurgens (pectoral) will also be sidelined for this one, while Hurts, who has been battling an illness over the weekend, has been downgraded as questionable. If he can’t get himself together by kickoff, it will be (veteran QB) Marcus Mariota getting the nod. Of course, Mariota, a Heisman winner and former second overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, has plenty of experience to put to use, with a 34-40 record as a starter, while possessing mobility comparable to that of Hurts, rushing for 2,018 yards and seventeen touchdowns over the course of his career. Looking ahead, a win tonight would vault Sirianni & Co back into first place in the NFC East, with the remainder of their schedule looking very inviting, including two dates with the struggling Giants bookending a visit from the aforementioned Gannon’s Cardinals.
Meanwhile, in comparison to their opponent tonight, the swoon of these Seahawks (6-7, 3rd in NFC West) has been much more damaging as they find themselves on the outside looking in at the playoffs with four weeks left to go in the regular season. So, what in the name of Shaun Alexander has gone wrong for a team that surprised many last Fall in advancing to the postseason after parting ways with the most successful Quarterback in franchise history? Well, there have been many issues that have plagued these birds in 2023, none more so than injuries at many key positions, particularly the Offensive Line. (Sophomore Tackles) Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas both missed a wealth of time due to knee maladies early in the campaign, while (Sophomore Tailback) Kenneth Walker III was hampered for a number of weeks with a tender hamstring. Furthermore, (reigning Comeback Player of the Year) Geno Smith finally missed a game last weekend with a sore groin after weeks of being subject to intense pressure from opposing defenses. Remember, even when this offense was firing on all cylinders, it was far from the most consistent; (Offensive Coordinator) Shane Waldron’s unit ranked ninth in points (23.9) and thirteenth in total yards (372.0) last Fall, though struggled mightily on third down (37.8%) and in the red zone (47.3%), finishing twentieth and twenty-eighth respectively. This season, those figures have fallen to 21.5 points (18th Overall) and 342.2 (20th Overall), while converting 33.3% of their third downs (27th Overall) and 50.0% of their red zone opportunities (23rd Overall). Now, we’ve lamented how Waldron, despite his roots in the Sean McVay coaching tree, is far from the most imaginable playcaller, with very little connective tissue tying one play to another. However, the lack of protection and push up front has made it even more difficult for his Quarterback to get the football to the plethora of weapons available in the passing game, chief among them (veteran Wideout) D.K. Metcalf. Last season, the former Pro-Bowler hauled in a career-high ninety receptions on 141 targets for 1,048 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 11.6 yards per catch. This year, Metcalf (pictured below) has logged more touchdowns (7) and more yards per catch (16.9), but a far lower catch percentage (54.8%) with just fifty-one receptions on ninety-three targets. Again, this is indicative of Smith & Co facing far more third-and-long situations than they would like, which has left the massive Receiver on literally losing his mind on a few occasions. Case in point, in last weekend’s 16-28 loss at San Francisco, he got into a heated altercation with Niners defenders following an interception on a pass targeted to him, with the ensuing scuffle adding another fifteen yards for unnecessary roughness penalty. Sure, he got his team on the board with a 31-yard touchdown in the first quarter, but he had just one catch the rest of the way, with the meltdown encapsulating this particular stretch for the Seahawks, who have dropped five of their last six games, including each of the last four outings. It’s crazy to think that (Head Coach) Pete Carroll & Co were sitting at 6-3 and in first place of the NFC West five weeks ago, only to completely collapse as they faced stiffer competition. During this turbulent period, the offense has scored over sixteen points just once, while shipping 29.5 points over the last four contests. Furthermore, the defense has endured its struggles as well, thanks in large part to a tendency of over-blitzing. Seattle blitzes a modest 22.9% of the time (17th Overall), resulting in a pressure percentage of 23.7% (7th Overall), though that pressure hasn’t parlayed into much success, with a sack percentage of just 7.6% (20th Overall), while opponents have been converting a healthy 45.8% of their third downs (30th Overall). Basically, (Defensive Coordinator) Clint Hurtt’s unit gambles a little too often, and when they play better offenses, they pay for it more times than not. Again, this brings us back to last Sunday’s loss in Santa Clara, where the 49ers moved the football at will against them, racking up 527 total yards, including 173 of the rushing variety and another 368 through the air. The hosts faced just eleven third downs on the afternoon, while Brock Purdy was pressured on 22.6% of his dropbacks and blitzed seven times resulting in three sacks and an interception.
From a betting perspective, the Seahawks may be 6-7 straight-up thus far, but they have been slightly more rewarding against the spread, posting a 7-5-1 record in that regard. It has been an uneven campaign for Seattle on this front, for after covering four of their first six games, they proceeded to go 1-3-1 against the spread over the next five contests. This slide shifted the oddsmakers’ view of these birds, who became larger underdogs with each passing week, eventually covering back-to-back tilts at the Cowboys (+9.5) and at the 49ers (+14.5). Though Lumen Field used to be one of the greatest home field advantages in the league, that hasn’t been the case anymore; Carroll’s troops are 6-4 straight-up in their last ten games at home, while covering just three of those affairs. Looking at this particular matchup, the Seahawks have OWNED this series for quite a while now, winning NINE of the last ten meetings outright, while covering all but two of them. Three of those victories came in the Pacific Northwest, though this is the first time that they have hosted Philadelphia since 2017. When these teams last crossed paths in that aforementioned 23-16 win three years ago, Seattle helped foster the end of the Doug Pederson/Carson Wentz era in Philly, getting the best of what was very much a defensive struggle for both sides. The visitors accumulated 301 total yards on twenty first downs, were held to just seventy-six rushing yards on thirty carries, while converting a combined 2-of-12 on third and fourth down. However, the key to this one was big plays, which came in the passing game anytime (former QB) Russell Wilson threw the football Metcalf’s way. The herculean pass-catcher went OFF on primetime, hauling in ten receptions on thirteen targets for 177 yards, including a 52-yard strike deep down the middle of the field in which he hurdled the aforementioned Slay. The defense also played a major role in this one, relegating the home side to just 250 total yards, thanks in large part to intense pressure applied to Wentz; Carroll’s unit sacked him SIX times (by seven different players), hit him on THIRTEEN occasions, and racked up FIFTEEN pressures, while (veteran Safety) Quandre Diggs logged an interception. On the injury front, there are a number of players to keep an eye that are listed as questionable for tonight’s contest, including (veteran Safety) Jamal Adams (knee), (Rookie Cornerback) Devon Witherspoon (hip), and the aforementioned Smith (groin). Looking ahead, there may still be time for these birds to salvage their season and sneak into the playoffs, for this gauntlet of tough opponents will come to a close tonight. Seattle will travel to Tennessee to face the Titans next before hosting the fading Steelers, followed by a visit to the desert for a date with the Cardinals, with two of those three teams having already been eliminated from playoff contention.