9:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: UTSA -9.0, Over/Under: 55.5
Let’s go bowling, folks, as college football’s postseason spread kicks off tonight in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, as the UTSA Roadrunners renew acquaintances with the Marshall Thundering Herd in this reunion between former Conference USA residents. In many ways, tonight’s Frisco Bowl marks the end of an era for Texas-San Antonio (8-4, 7-1 in AAC), who will bid farewell to many of the Seniors that have helped build this young program into what it has become under the direction of (Head Coach) Jeff Traylor. Since arriving in Southern Texas back in 2020, the 55-year-old Lone Star native took a program that had just one winning record in the previous six seasons and lifted them to a 7-5 finish in the wild and crazy COVID campaign of 2020, following that up with a 23-5 record over the next two years, including back-to-back Conference Championships. Indeed, the only thing missing from their CV is a bowl win, which they hope to acquire tonight as their group of Seniors rides off into the proverbial sunset. Like their moniker, this is an outfit that plays fast and loose, which has helped them transition to the American Athletic Conference, where they remained in contention for the Conference Title Game until the very last week (which we’ll get into shortly). UTSA has averaged 31.7 points per game (37th in FBS) on 424.6 total yards, though have left plenty of points on the table by way of a -3-turnover differential (19 turnovers). In his SEVENTH season in San Antonio, (Senior Quarterback) Frank Harris is arguably the most experienced player in the country, serving as the straw that stirs this cocktail; over the course of THIRTY-EIGHT starts, he has accounted 14,007 yards from scrimmage and 120 total touchdowns, both of which are school records. This Fall, Harris (pictured below) has completed 64.9% of his throws for 2,506 yards on 7.5 yards per attempt, with eighteen touchdowns opposed to eight interceptions, while rushing for 323 yards and four more scores. Granted, he hasn’t been nearly as prolific as he has in seasons past, with the transition to the playcalling of (former Special Teams Coach) Justin Burke providing a longer learning curve than expected. However, that hasn’t deterred him from getting the football to (Senior Receiver) Joshua Cephus, who hauled in eighty-two receptions for a career-high 1,049 yards and nine touchdowns in 2023. When we last saw UTSA, their bid to conquer their second conference in two years fell short as they met defeat at Tulane in a 16-29 affair back in late November. Turnovers absolutely KILLED these birds in this one, folks, as Traylor’s group committed FIVE on that day, including a pair of interceptions tossed by Harris, who completed 25-of-38 passes for just 198 yards and a touchdown. The visitors actually led the Green Wave 10-7 early in the second quarter, though proceeded to ship TWENTY-TWO unanswered points to the home side, crushing any hopes of reaching the AAC Championship Game. (Sophomore Tailback) Kevorian Barnes rushed for ninety-two yards on just twelve carries, while Cephus led the way with eighty-three yards on six receptions, though (Junior Tight End) Oscar Cardenas experienced the high of catching a 9-yard score from Harris in the fourth quarter, while also tossing an interception on an ill-fated trick play. The defense also struggled mightily in this one, as (Defensive Coordinator) Jess Loepp’s unit were manhandled in the trenches, yielding 227 rushing yards on forty-one attempts, including 166 yards to Makhi Hughes.
From a betting perspective, UTSA may be 8-4 straight-up this Fall, but they have trended far closer to the middle of the pack with a 5-6-1 record against the spread, covering just two of their final five games of the schedule. However, this was not the case in the regular season finale at Tulane (-3.5), in which they were held below twenty points for just the third time in 2023. Interestingly, these Roadrunners have been a fairly solid play when favored by eight or more points, covering the line in four of their last six such contests (4-1-1 ATS). Under the leadership of Traylor, this is a program that is 27-24-1 (.519) against the spread since he arrived in San Antonio four years ago, including a 1-2 record in that regard in bowls (though they have yet to win straight-up). The last time that we saw these birds in the postseason, they fell to (No. 23) Troy in the Cure Bowl despite being favored by two points. UTSA raced out to an early 12-0 lead jumpstarted by a safety on the opening drive, but were held scoreless the rest of the way, thanks in large part to committing FIVE turnovers. Harris completed 23-of-42 passes for 198 yards, a touchdown and a pair of interceptions, while Barnes rushed for 132 yards on twenty-one carries. Defensively, Traylor’s troops relegated the Trojans to just 160 total yards, including forty-seven of the rushing variety on forty-one carries, logging SIX sacks and a pair of interceptions, with the likes of (Sophomore Linebacker) Trey Moore and (Senior Safety) Kelechi Nwachuku, who combined for two sacks and a pick on that day, will be looking to put an exclamation point on this campaign. Looking at this particular matchup, the Roadrunners are 1-2 in three all-time meetings with the Thundering Herd between 2013 and 2018 as members of the old Conference USA. Points have been generally hard for them to come by in this series, scoring a total of NINETEEN points in the three encounters, including nine in their lone victory (9-7 in 2017). On the injury front, (Senior Tackle) Makai Hart will miss this affair with an unspecified injury suffered in that loss to Tulane, while (JUCO Transfer) Willie McCoy is questionable to participate due to an ailing neck. Looking ahead, a win tonight would grant Texas-San Antonio their third consecutive campaign of 9+ wins under the direction of Traylor, who will head into next Fall with the task of replacing the tenured Harris along with seven other starters from both sides of the football.
Meanwhile, while their opponent looks to close the book on the most successful period in program history, Marshall (6-6, 3-5 in Sun Belt) had to wait until the season finale before finally becoming bowl eligible for the seventh year in a row. Like UTSA, the Thundering Herd left Conference USA for greener pastures, though instead of following the Roadrunners to the AAC, they migrated to the Sun Belt, which has proven to be surprisingly tougher than anticipated. Keep in mind that in just his second season in Huntington, (Head Coach) Charles Huff led his team to a 9-4 finish (their best since 2018), including what the school’s second all-time victory over a top-10 opponent, upsetting (No. 8) Notre Dame in the second week of the campaign. Needless to say, there were many who expected the Herd to contend right away for SBC supremacy, but that simply wasn’t the case this Fall, as a mistake-prone offense coupled with a young defense spelled trouble for these buffaloes. Make no mistake about it, this wasn’t a good offensive team a year ago, averaging just 24.5 points per game on 398 total yards, thanks in large part to a healthy +10 turnover differential. The defense, however, was stellar in relegating opponents to a mere 16.0 points, which ultimately earned (Defensive Coordinator) Lance Guidry a promotion, though not at Marshall, but at Miami (FL). This Fall, the offense has mustered just 23.2 points (93rd in FBS) on 357.8 total yards, with an untenable TWENTY-EIGHT turnovers killing their efforts time and time again. (Sophomore Quarterback) Cam Fancher has regressed in 2023, tossing as many interceptions (11) as touchdowns, while (Redshirt Freshman) Cole Pennington (son of Marshall legend Chad), has been picked off SIX times despite attempting just seventy-nine passes in relief of Fancher. It appears that the second Pennington era will officially begin tonight, as Fancher has declared his intention of leaving the program and entering the Transfer Portal, where he will reportedly be visiting the likes of LSU and North Carolina State in the coming weeks. Inconsistencies under center aside, that’s not to say that there aren’t playmakers to be found here, as (Sophomore Tailback) Raheen Ali has been stellar in this, his first year since healthy after a knee injury relegated him to just three games in 2022. Three years ago, Ali (pictured below) racked up 1,401 rushing yards and TWENTY-THREE touchdowns on 5.6 yards per carry, only to return to those levels with 1,043 yards (5.1 yards per carry) and fourteen scores. With that being said, turnovers don’t just spoil any progress made by the offense, but they also have a way effecting the defense, who have frequently been left to defend a short field. This isn’t all on (new DC) Jason Semore, who has watched his unit ship 28.2 points (87th in FBS) on 375.8 total yards, suffering from that miserable -13 turnover differential. However, the Herd have held four consecutive opponents below 400 total yards, including two of the last three under eighty rushing yards, while applying consistent pressure on the Quarterback with THIRTY-EIGHT sacks. The defense played a large role in their 35-21 victory over Arkansas State back in late November, actually yielding just fourteen points given that one of the Red Wolves’ three touchdowns came courtesy of a 60-yard punt return. Huff’s troops dominated this one, folks, outgaining the visitors 493-305 and outrushed them 279-42, thanks in large part to the collective performance of Fancher and (Junior Tailback) Ethan Payne, who each topped 100 rushing yards, with the former breaching the end zone for a pair of scores. This was probably Fancher’s finest performance for the Herd, as he completed an efficient 16-of-22 passes for 214 yards and three touchdowns, with most importantly ZERO interceptions. The hosts did commit a pair of turnovers that day, though managed to negate the effects by forcing two takeaways themselves, with an interception from (Freshman Cornerback) Ahmere Foster and a recovered fumble courtesy of (Florida State transfer) Stephen Dix.
From a betting perspective, Marshall may have snuck into the postseason at 6-6 straight-up, but they’ve been less rewarding against the spread, covering just four of their twelve games this Fall (4-8 ATS). After covering two of their first three outings, this Herd has been anything but thundering as they failed to cover EIGHT consecutive contests until finally making bettors some money with that thumping of Arkansas State (+1) in which they were essentially a pick ’em. Under the leadership of Huff, this is a program that is a mediocre 17-21 (.447) against the spread since he arrived in Huntington three years ago, including a 1-1 mark both straight-up and against the spread in bowls. The last time that we saw them in one of these postseason affairs, they trounced Connecticut in the Myrtle Beach Bowl (28-14), narrowly covering a 12-point spread. This one was ALL MARSHALL for roughly three quarters as the Herd began with TWENTY-EIGHT unanswered points in the first thirty-six minutes of action, thanks in large part to logging FOUR takeaways, including an interception returned to the house courtesy of (Former Safety) Damion Barber. Fancher took a backseat to the ground game, completing just 10-of-20 passes for ninety-three yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while the Backfield churned out 210 rushing yards on forty-five carries. (Former Tailback) Khalan Laborn and the aforementioned Ali each topped ninety rushing yards, with the latter needing just fifteen carries to amass ninety-two yards and a score. Looking at this particular matchup, Marshall has beaten UTSA in two of their three all-time meetings, including the most recent, a 23-0 shutout back in 2018. On that day, the hosts outgained the Roadrunners 505-137, limiting the visitors to a mere ten first downs. On the injury front, this figures to be a largely healthy side by the time this contest kicks off, with the only players in question being (Sophomore Wideout) Caleb Coombs and (Sophomore Tight End) Cade Conley, who are both listed as questionable with unspecified maladies. The two underclassmen combined for sixty-two receptions, 525 yards, and three touchdowns this Fall. Looking ahead, no matter the outcome of tonight’s tilt, the Herd should show some growth next season under Huff, particularly with seventeen returning starters, including Fancher, Ali, and eight defenders.