8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Line: Rams -4.0, Over/Under: 46.0
Week Sixteen kicks off tonight in the City of Angels for a midweek battle of middling teams making a late push for the playoffs, as the surging Los Angeles Rams play host to the New Orleans Saints from SoFi Stadium. The theme for both of these teams is resilience, for at one point it looked as if they were very much dead in the water, only to pick themselves up off the proverbial mat and fight their way back up the standings. That notion applies to the Saints (7-7, T-1st in NFC South), who just three weeks ago were languishing at 5-7, suffering a 3-game losing streak at the worst time of the season, and likely staring down the barrel of a (long overdue) offseason rebuild. However, credit (Head Coach) Dennis Allen and his troops for righting the ship by taking advantage of some weaker competition; New Orleans hammered the likes of Carolina and New York in successive weeks by a combined score of 52-12, with their stingy defense awakening to permit just 248.0 total yards before a raucous Caesars Superdome. Needless to say, it will be interesting to see if this is indeed the start of this team finally living up to their potential after largely meandering throughout a schedule that has been far from arduous. The Saints have faced just FOUR opponents with records above .500 thus far, all the while residing within a division in which none of its residents are currently above that particular threshold. The addition of (veteran Quarterback) Derek Carr was expected to unlock the potential within an offense that had been largely stagnant since (former QB) Drew Brees rode off into the sunset three years ago, though it hasn’t been the smoothest of transitions for the 32-year-old. On the year, Carr (pictured below) has completed 67.4% of his throws for an average of 221.3 yards on 6.16 net yards per attempt, with sixteen touchdowns in comparison to seven interceptions, equating to a middling QBR of 49.9. Granted, a concussion and multiple shoulder injuries have hindered him throughout the season, though it should be noted that even when healthy he has rarely looked in synch within a system that appeared to be a good fit for his skillset. After all, Allen drafted the four-time Pro-Bowler when they were both in Oakland back in 2014, with the skipper playing a major role in luring him to the Big Easy, though this reunion has yet to truly deliver on the promise of his potential; New Orleans ranks twelfth in points (22.1), fourteenth in total offense (348.5), fourteenth in passing yards (245.3), seventeenth in net yards per attempt (6.08), seventeenth on third down (38.3%), and twenty-first in the red zone (52.0%), which while all representing improvements from the previous two years, have proven to be little more than slightly better than league average. The biggest issue has been the Quarterback’s reluctance to stretch the field vertically despite there being a plethora of weapons to do so. Over his last three seasons with the Raiders, which were within two very different offenses, Carr averaged at least 8.1 intended air yards per pass attempt, including a career-high 9.1 last Fall, only to see that figure deflated to 7.8 yards per attempt, which is a telltale sign of his unwillingness to throw deep. Perhaps it is a lack of familiarity with his supporting cast, or a reluctance to take punishment giving the injuries that he has suffered, but whatever it may be, this has really held this unit back. When we last saw the Saints, they climbed back to .500 on the strength of a 24-6 thumping of the Giants, with the defense turning in one of their strongest showings of the campaign. New Orleans held the visitors to just 193 total yards on twelve first downs, sixty rushing yards on sixteen carries, and 2-of-16 on third down, while sacking Tommy DeVito SEVEN times. (Veteran Defensive End) Tanoh Kpassagnon accounted for three sacks, while (Rookie Defensive Lineman) Bryan Bresee added two of his own, while (veteran Linebacker) Demario Davis led the effort with ten tackles and another sack to boot. Offensively, Carr& Co didn’t need to do much in this one, with the QB completing an efficient 23-of-28 passes for 218 yards and a season-high three touchdowns, while (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Alvin Kamara amassed 110 yards from scrimmage on twenty-one touches, with (veteran Tight End) Jimmy Graham making the most of this second stint with the franchise that launched his career, hauling in his fourth touchdown of the year and third in as many contests.
From a betting perspective, the Saints may be sitting at .500 straight-up, but they have been decisively less-rewarding against the spread this Fall, posting a dismal 4-9-1 record against the spread. This is a team that managed to cover just TWO of their first twelve games (2-9-1 ATS), though for those of you have been (VERY) patient with New Orleans, they have won and covered each of their last two outings against less than stellar competition. Two weeks ago, Allen’s troops manhandled the dreadful Panthers (-5.5) in a 28-6 rout at the Superdome, before doing the same to the Giants in last weekend’s dubbing of Big Blue. However, tonight’s trip to the City of Angels will see them branded as underdogs for just the third time this season, which is a favorable position for a group that has covered four of their last five contests when receiving points from the oddsmakers. With that being said, there are two very significant trends working against them, folks. First, they have failed to cover FIVE consecutive games after holding an opponent below ninety rushing yards, which is the case tonight after squatting on New York’s inept ground game. Second, the Saints have been anything but divine during these midweek clashes, with four straight non-covers on Thursday nights. Looking at this particular matchup, the home side has won and covered eight of the last nine meetings outright, with New Orleans owning a 4-5 record against this spread during that stretch. When they met last Fall in the Big Easy, the hosts grinded out a tough 27-20 victory, that featured a festival of field goals in the fourth quarter. However, the hosts won this on the strength making big plays when they needed to be made; trailing 10-14 at halftime, (former QB) Andy Dalton found (former Receiver) Jarvis Landry for a 7-yard strike to take the lead early in the third quarter, followed by a 53-yard bomb to (young Wideout) Chris Olave to stretch their advantage to ten points. In the end, Dalton turned in arguably his finest performance in his brief tenure with the franchise, completing an efficient 21-of-25 passes for 260 yards and three touchdowns, while (proverbial Swiss Army Knife) Taysom Hill went 1-of-3 passing for fourteen yards, rushed for another fifty-two yards on nine carries, while even hauling in a pass for eight yards to boot. As for Kamara, he amassed eighty-nine yards from scrimmage on sixteen touches, while Olave posted 102 receiving yards and that score on five catches. Defensively, Allen’s unit eventually knocked Matthew Stafford out of the game, logging four sacks, seven hits, and eight pressures of Rams Quarterbacks. IT should be noted that Carr, who had yet to join the club until this past offseason, has NEVER beaten the Rams, going 0-3 with a completion percentage of 64.6%, 204.3 yards per game on 5.9 net yards per attempt, with ZERO touchdowns opposed to SEVEN interceptions. On the injury front, (Defensive Ends) Isaiah Foskey (quadriceps) and Payton Turner (toe) and (Backup Tailback) Kendre Miller (ankle) are all out of action for tonight’s affair in Los Angeles with various ailments. The aforementioned Olave missed last week’s contest with a sprained ankle and is listed as questionable to return for this one, while (Right Tackle) Ryan Ramczyk is in the same boat, though he is more likely to play given that he has been simply rested. Furthermoer, (veteran Defensive End) Cameron Jordan has been dealing with a tender ankle, but he too is likely to start in this matchup that is ripe with playoff implications. Looking ahead, the battle for the NFC South appears as if it will go down to the wire, as New Orleans will travel to Raymond James Stadium next weekend for a battle with Tampa Bay before finishing up the regular season hosting Atlanta, with both teams in the running for the division crown.
Meanwhile, that previous notion of resilience absolutely applies to the Rams (7-7, 2nd in NFC West) who are in the midst of quite the three-year odyssey. It may seem like a lifetime ago, but Los Angeles hoisted the franchise’s second Lombardi Trophy in February of 2022, only to completely collapse in one of the worst title defenses in recent memory, limping their way to a 5-12 finish. By now, we are all aware with the club’s unique approach to building a roster, with (Head Coach) Sean McVay and (General Manager) willingly parting ways with first and second round picks in exchange for premium veteran talent. It was a good thing that that that particular method paid off when it did, for many of those same veterans fell victim to injury last Fall, including the likes of (Pro-Bowlers) Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald, along with virtually the entire Offensive Line. And it is with that said, that McVay and Snead went about remaking the roster on the fly, holding onto that triumvirate of stars while infusing the roster with a wealth of young talent; no team in the NFL has more rookies on their roster (16), with well over HALF (35) of their roster consisting of first, second, or third-year players. Everywhere you look, there are young playmakers contributing on a regular basis. Offensively, (Sophomore Tailback) Kyren Williams and (Rookie Receiver) Puka Nacua have become fantasy darlings for many of you, while playing key roles in the Rams’ playoff push. Williams (pictured below) started slowly and was sidelined due to injury for a large chunk of the season, but over the last four weeks has erupted for 146.1 yards from scrimmage on 5.25 yards per touch with four touchdowns along the way. As for Nacua, he burst on the scene in place of an injured Kupp, hauling in an NFL record fifty-eight receptions for 752 yards and two scores in the first seven games of his career. On the opposite side of the football, (Defensive Coordinator) Raheem Morris has once again performed a masterclass with a young unit that has continued to grow with each passing week. Sure, (three-time Defensive Player of the Year) Donald headlines this group, but the likes of (Linebackers) Ernest Jones, Michael Hoecht, and Byron Young, along with (Nose Tackle) Kobie Turner, and (Cornerback) Derion Kendrick have flourished around him, combining for 20.5 sacks, thirty tackles for loss, thirty-eight QB hits, sixteen passes defended, and an interception thus far. It also appears that this wellspring of youth has helped revitalize the likes of Stafford, Kupp, and Donald, who have all bounced back nicely from injury-plagued campaigns. Stafford has completed 61.4% of his passes for an average of 255.4 yards on 6.59 net yards per attempt, with twenty-one touchdowns in comparison to nine interceptions, thanks in large part to a sack percentage that decreased from 8.7% to a far more manageable 5.2%. Kupp, who missed the first four games with a lingering hamstring strain, has posted forty-nine catches for 658 yards and four touchdowns, while Donald, who many no longer be the wrecking ball he was for a decade, has nonetheless remained productive with six sacks, thirteen tackles for loss, twenty-one QB hits, and twenty-eight pressures. When we last saw the Rams, they rolled on to their fourth consecutive victory and back to .500 with a 28-20 triumph over the fading Commanders. This one wasn’t nearly as close as the final score would indicate, folks, as Los Angeles held significant advantages in a number of categories, including total yards (445-297), first downs (23-14), rushing yards (196-79), and time of possession (35:53). The hosts raced out to a 20-0 lead after Stafford hit Kupp for a 62-yard touchdown on the opening drive of the second half, though Washington managed to a pair of consolation scores within the final seven minutes of the fourth period to make the affair look more respectable. This one was all about the ground game for the home side, whose 196 yards stands as their second-most of the campaign thus far. Williams dominated in churning out 152 yards and a touchdown on twenty-seven carries, though his two lost fumbles probably kept Los Angeles from scoring more points than they did. Running the ball successfully opens up so many avenues, particularly for McVay and Stafford, with the latter completing 25-of-33 passes for 258 yards and a pair of touchdowns, the second being a 23-yard strike to (veteran Receiver) Demarcus Robinson. Kupp finished the day with 111 yards and that score on eight receptions, while Morris’ defense held the visiting side to 3-of-14 on third down.
From a betting perspective, the Rams are also sitting at .500, but unlike their opponent tonight, they have been slightly more rewarding against the spread, posting an 8-5-1 mark thus far. It appears that Los Angeles is finishing the campaign as they started it, covering each of their last four outings, while winning four out of five contests outright. Of course, this stretch came after a particularly dreadful run of form in which they failed to cover FIVE of six tilts, which has seen them regain the trust of the betting community. McVay’s troops are 6-3-1 against the spread in their last ten games at SoFi Stadium, while covering six of their past ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers, including three straight such covers. Interestingly, whereas their opponent tonight has struggled after putting together a strong defensive performance against the run, LA has been the opposite, owning a 6-1 mark against the spread in their last seven games after allowing fewer than ninety rushing yards. Looking at this particular matchup, we touched upon the dominance of the home sides in this series of late, though it should be noted that the only combatant to win on the road in the last nine meetings was the Rams, which came in the 2018 NFC Championship Game. Los Angeles (+3) benefitted greatly from a controversial pass interference penalty that was NOT called by the officials, forcing the hosts to settle for a field goal and push the affair into overtime where McVay & Co took control and booked their ticket to Super Bowl LIII. In their most recent encounter, the Rams came up short in their latest trip to the Superdome in that aforementioned 20-27 tilt from last Fall. We talked about how big plays ultimately decided this one, and the visitors made their share early on, as Stafford found (young Receiver) Tutu Atwell for a 62-yard touchdown to open their ledger for the afternoon. Unfortunately, the veteran Quarterback would be forced to leave the game midway through the third quarter due to a concussion after completing 11-of-18 passes for 159 yards and a pair of scores. Bryce Perkins would replace him and go 5-of-10 for sixty-four yards, though it isn’t a coincidence that his team failed to reach the end zone again after his predecessor left the field of play. Over the course of his career, Stafford has posted a 3-6 record against the Saints (including playoffs), completing 62.3% of his passes for 284.8 yards per game on 7.37 net yards per attempt with nineteen total touchdowns opposed to fourteen turnovers. On the injury front, Atwell (concussion), and (Right Tackle) Rob Havenstein (groin) are all listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s visit from New Orleans, while (Left Tackle) Joseph Noteboom (foot) and (veteran Cornerback) Akhello Witherspoon (groin) were either limited for held out of practice this week due to various maladies leaving their availability up in the air. Looking ahead, this midweek affair will serve as the Rams’ final home game of the regular season, as they are set to close out the schedule with a trip to the Meadowlands to face the Giants before crossing paths with the (NFC West Champion) 49ers as they continue their pursuit of the postseason.