8:20 PM EST, NBC – Line: Bills -3.0, Over/Under: 48.5
Finally, it all comes down to this, as the 2023 NFL Regular Season comes to a close in South Florida, where the AFC East will be decided as the Buffalo Bills hold postseason passage in their hands in this showdown with the Miami Dolphins, who have already clinched a playoff berth. In each of the previous three campaigns, the Bills (10-6, 2nd in AFC East) were hardly tested en route to claiming a division crown, though if they do end up making it four in a row, they will certainly have earned it. Billed as one of the first line of Super Bowl contenders within a deep AFC, Buffalo started strong enough, winning three of their first four outings by a whopping 21.0 points per game, though fell into a deep midseason malaise that lasted from the beginning of October to their bye week at the end of November. Simply put, this was harrowing time in Orchard Park, as (Head Coach) Sean McDermott’s troops lost FIVE of eight games, thanks in large part to a turnover-prone offense that continued to self-destruct with FIFTEEN turnovers along the way, parlaying to an untenable differential of -5. As a result, (former Offensive Coordinator) Ken Dorsey was relieved of his duties, with McDermott promoting (Quarterbacks Coach) Joe Brady to offensive playcaller, which has seen a shift to a more balanced approach, which is something that many have been clamoring for in Western New York for quite a while now. For four years now, (veteran QB) Josh Allen has been one of the best in the NFL, averaging a staggering 4,896.0 total yards per game with 171 passing and rushing touchdowns, by far and away the most in the league during that period. However, if there is one drawback when it comes to Allen (pictured below) is that such statistical success has also come with a good deal of risk, for no player has committed more turnovers between 2020 and 2023 than the 27-year-old, who has tossed fifty-five interceptions and lost twenty-three fumbles. This season, he has given way the ball on nineteen occasions, with eleven of them coming within that aforementioned midseason swoon. And it is with that being said, that Brady has since shifted to a more balanced attack, utilizing the run more than his predecessor did; the Bills have churned out 153.2 yards contest over the past six games, with the volume of attempts (37.0) being the most important factor, rushing nearly twelve times more on average than they did under Dorsey. Coincidentally, Buffalo has circled the wagons and won five of their last six tilts, scoring 28.0 points per game and committing fewer turnovers as a result (7), which has led to a much healthier +6 differential. (Sophomore Tailback) James Cook has emerged as the RB1 that McDermott had been searching for, racing up 113.5 yards from scrimmage over the last six games, though ball security has been an issue for the youngster (4, 2 lost). When we last saw he and the Bills, they avenged an earlier defeat to the Patriots, returning the favor with a 27-21 victory at Highmark Stadium. This one was a SLOPPY affair for both sides, with FIVE turnovers between them, though it would be New England accounting for the majority of them with FOUR in the first eighteen minutes alone. McDermott’s defense picked off Bailey Zappe three times during that stretch, with (veteran Cornerback) Rasul Douglas returning the third forty-eight yards to the house. It was a good thing that the defense was an opportunistic as it was, because this was hardly an efficient offensive performance from the hosts, with just 281 total yards on nineteen first downs, no doubt affected by wintery conditions. Allen completed just 15-of-30 passes for 169 yards and an interception, though factored heavily in their ground assault, rushing eleven times for forty-four yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Cook added another forty-eight yards on sixteen attempts. Douglas finished the afternoon with two interceptions, while (veteran Defensive Tackle) Ed Oliver snared one as well, adding a sack and a pressure to boot.
From a betting perspective, the Bills have been one of the great mysteries of this season, posting a 10-6 record straight-up despite being one of the least-rewarding teams against the spread with a 6-10 mark. Buffalo has won but failed to cover FOUR games this season, including each of the last two outings, which highlights the disconnect between the team that they are versus their public perception. Could this be case of living off one’s reputation? McDermott’s troops have been favored in all but THREE of their contests this Fall, going 5-8 versus the spread along the way. Furthermore, Allen & Co are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven tilts following an ATS loss, while going 1-5-1 versus the spread after a straight-up victory, with both scenarios being relevant in tonight’s trip to South Beach. Looking at this particular matchup, the home side has won six of the last seven encounters, though the spread has seen a much more even distribution (4-3 in favor of the hosts). The Bills have won all but one of the last ten meetings between these franchises, though their only defeat came at Hard Rock Stadium earlier last season (19-21) in sweltering heat and humidity. Granted, the elements should be far more moderate in South Florida this time of year, which should bode well for Buffalo, who utterly annihilated their division foes in October’s 48-20 affair from Orchard Park. Billed as a heavyweight fight, the hosts put their foot on the gas to run off seventeen unanswered points to take a commanding 31-14 lead into halftime. While the Dolphins hit paydirt early in the second half to cut the deficit to eleven points, the Bills poured in another seventeen unanswered points to end the day. Despite both teams putting up well over 390 total yards of offense, the difference came in the form of two turnovers, both of which were at Miami’s expense, including a fumble from Raheem Mostert that led to a field goal, and an interception from Tua Tagovailoa (much more on them in a bit), which parlayed into a 13-yard touchdown toss from Allen to (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Stefon Diggs four plays later. With Buffalo surging down the stretch, the visitors would go for it on fourth down on three straight possessions, though were turned away each time. When it was all said and done, Allen completed a surgical 21-of-25 passes for 320 yards, four touchdowns and an 11-yard rushing score, with Diggs hauling in 120 receiving yards and THREE touchdowns on six receptions. Cook amassed seventy-four yards from scrimmage on just thirteen touches, while the defense sacked Tagovailoa four times, hit him on nine occasions, and totaled fourteen pressures. Over the course of his career, Allen has enjoyed a wealth of success against this particular division rival, completing 66.0% of his throws for an average of 279.6 yards on a healthy 7.86 net yards per attempt, with THIRTY-FOUR touchdowns opposed to just six interceptions, while rushing for another logging another 47.6 yards on the ground and five more scores. On the injury front, there are a number of players who started in that pervious matchup, who won’t be participating in tonight’s showdown, including (veteran Linebacker) Matt Milano (leg) and (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Tre’Davious White (Achilles), who both saw their campaigns end prematurely in that win over the Dolphins. Furthermore, (Center) Mitch Morse (illness), (Safety) Micah Hyde (neck) are both listed as questionable, alongside (Sophomore Cornerback) Kaiir Elam (ankle). Looking ahead, a win would secure a fourth consecutive AFC East Title for Buffalo and at least one home game in the playoffs, though things would get very tricky if they happened to lose this one, folks, for with Pittsburgh’s victory yesterday in Baltimore, a loss will eliminate them from postseason qualification for the first time since 2018.
Meanwhile, what has been easily the most successful season for the Dolphins (11-5, 1st in AFC East) in fifteen years appears to be unraveling to a degree, with their lofty standing at the top of the AFC becoming more tenuous with each passing week. Yes, Miami has won eleven games, which is their most in a campaign since 2008 and is coincidentally the last time that they wore the division crown. Yes, they have been the most prolific offensive side in the NFL this season, ranking first in points scored (30.3), total yards (420.3), passing yards (282.8), rushing touchdowns (26), and yards per carry (5.0). A more balanced approach (137.5 rushing yards) coupled with a clean bill of health for (fourth-year Quarterback) Tua Tagovailoa has really unlocked the lofty potential of this unit, with the young passer leading the league in completion percentage (69.6%) and passing yards (4,451). It certainly helps that (Head Coach) Mike McDaniel is one of the most creative play-callers in the league, utilizing a wealth of pre-snap motion in an attempt to create confusion for opposing defenses, with has been regularly exploited given the ridiculous speed that they possess at the skill positions. It is one thing to have one vertical threat on the field, but the Dolphins are capable of fielding up to FOUR of them on any given play. We’re not talking about your average, run-of-the-mill burners here, folks, for this is an attack that features arguably the four fastest players at their respective positions. (Tailbacks) Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane are home-run threats every time they touch the pigskin, with the former erupting for a franchise-record TWENTY-ONE total touchdowns, while the latter has appeared in just nine games of his rookie campaign, though has nonetheless averaged an explosive 7.9 yards per touch and scored TEN touchdowns thus far. With that being said, chief among this group is (All-Pro Receiver) Tyreek Hill, who is unquestionably the premier downfield weapon in the NFL. Sure, he was sensational during his time in Kansas City, but Hill (pictured below) has broken through his limits since being traded to South Beach. Last year, the 29-year-old posted career-highs in receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,710), though those will likely be eclipsed soon, with the 4-time All-Pro hauling in 112 catches for an NFL-best 1,717 yards and twelve scores. Simply put, his presence alone has proven enough to alter coverages and drag defenders to him, which routinely opens space for his teammates to exploit. Now for the bad news, folks, for this is a team that has enjoyed the bulk of their success against weaker competition, with all but ONE of their eleven victories coming against teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs. In fact, their opposition in those ten wins carries a cumulative win percentage of just .320, while their only win against a winning team came in a 22-20 triumph over the Cowboys on Christmas Eve. Apart from a puzzling 27-28 upset at the hands of the Titans, their other four losses have come against the Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, and most recently the Ravens, carrying a stellar combined win percentage of .676. As such, the narrative that McDaniel & Co can’t beat good teams has festered throughout the season, which doesn’t bode well for the playoffs given that, well, the field is comprised of GOOD teams. Just two weeks ago, they were in control of their destiny as the number one seed in the AFC, only to be on the verge of hitting the road in the first round of the playoffs, which is a dramatic decline by any measure. Then again, that seems to be what has happened to anyone that has crossed paths with Baltimore this Fall, for last weekend’s 19-56 affair was nothing short of a bloodbath. This one was actually relatively close affair for most of the first half, before the Ravens struck with two touchdowns within a 90-second period to take a 28-13 lead into intermission. The hosts would breach the end zone once more less than two minutes into the opening possession of the second half and would eventually end the afternoon on a 21-0 run. Needless to say, all the good will that the Dolphins had earned in beating the Cowboys went right out the window in this trip to M&T Bank Stadium, as they shipped a season-high 491 total yards on twenty-four first downs, including 376 yards and FIVE touchdowns to (MVP frontrunner) Lamar Jackson, while in turn committing three turnovers themselves and converting a combined 7-of-19 third and fourth downs. Tagovailoa completed 22-of-38 passes for 237 yards, with two touchdowns and a pir of interceptions, while suffering three sacks, four hits, and eight pressures. Achane performed well in place of an injured Mostert, amassing 137 yards from scrimmage and a receiving touchdown on seventeen touches, though Hill was largely contained with seventy-six yards on six receptions, though targeted twelve times.
From a betting perspective, the Dolphins have been a much more stable side for those who have wagered upon them this Fall, posting an 11-5 record straight in comparison to a 10-6 mark against the spread. Either way, if you bet on Miami this season, then you probably made some money. With that being said, the hype train has slowed down just a bit during this second half of the schedule, with McDaniel’s troops covering just four of their last eight contests coming into this finale against Buffalo. Interestingly, this matchup with mark only the fourth time all year that they been branded as underdogs, though the first instance in which they have received points from the oddsmakers in back-to-back games. Being a dog hasn’t been good to the Fins either, as they have lost all but one of their last ten such games straight-up, while covering just four of them along the way. On the brighter side of things, they have generally been a solid play after getting pummeled by their opponent, covering SEVEN consecutive outings after shipping 150 rushing yards in the previous tilt. Furthermore, this is a team that has performed well at home against quality competition, stringing together FIVE straight covers at Hard Rock Stadium against opponents above .500. Looking at this particular matchup, the series has been woefully one-sided of late in favor of the Bills, who as we covered earlier have taken all but one of the last ten meetings. The Dolphins only win during that span was in 21-19 affair back in late September of 2022, in which a litany of mistakes from Buffalo kept them (lost fumble, missed field goal, and a turnover on downs) kept them from winning a game that they statistically dominated. In their earlier encounter this season, McDaniel’s charges had no answers in slowing down the hosts, who eviscerated them 414 total yards on twenty-four first downs, while converting 5-of-10 third downs. The fact they only needed to attempt ten third downs should give you an idea as to what kind of day it was for Miami’s defense. As for Tagovailoa & Co, they posted 393 total yards themselves, though succumbed to their own errors, including a pair of turnovers and THREE failed attempts on fourth down, which coincidentally all came in the fourth quarter as the game got further and further away from them. In the end, Tagovailoa completed 25-of-35 passes for 282 yards, a touchdown and an interception, though as we touched upon earlier, was subject to intense pressure throughout the afternoon. Achane continued his stellar first impression upon the league, amassing 120 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns on only eleven touches, while Hill was relatively quiet with three catches for fifty-eight yards. Over the course of his young career, Tagovailoa has struggled mightily against the Bills, winning once in six tries and completing 60.9% of his passes for 213.5 yards on 6.48 net yards per attempt, with as many interceptions (5) as touchdowns. On the injury front, the Dolphins unfortunately lost (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) Bradley Chubb for the rest of the campaign to a torn ACL suffered in the waning moments of last weekend’s loss at Baltimore, leaving them without either of their starting Edges for the playoffs, as Jaelan Phillips tore his Achilles back in November. Furthermore, (veteran Guard) Connor Williams (knee) is on Injured Reserve, while (third year Wideout) Jaylen Waddle (ankle), (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Xavien Howard (foot), and Mostert (ankle) will miss this one as well. Looking ahead, Miami has clinched a playoff spot at the very least, with a win tonight securing their first AFC East Title since 2008, while a loss would see them headed to whomever wins the AFC South on Wild Card Weekend.