7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Michigan -4.5, Over/Under: 55.5
Finally, a National Champion will be crowned tonight at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, as the (No. 1) Michigan Wolverines and (No. 2) Washington Huskies battle it out in a showdown of unbeatens in search of their first National Titles since the 1990s. Even if you are simply a casual college football fan, it would be impossible not to be aware of the happenings at Michigan (14-0, 10-0 in BIG 10), who for better or worse have commanded the attention of the sporting world for months now. Of course, we’d like to say that is due to the fact that they are undefeated, have beaten their bitter rival, Ohio State, for a third year in a row, and thus find themselves on the verge of winning their first Natty since 1997, but that simply isn’t the case. Unfortunately, much of the press that been drawn to Ann Arbor has been due to the ongoing saga that is (Head Coach) Jim Harbaugh and his role in an outstanding sign-stealing fiasco that saw him suspended for the final three games of the regular season. Remarkably, that wasn’t even the first time that Harbaugh (pictured below) was suspended this season, as he was barred from the sidelines for the first three contests due to recruiting irregularities during the 2020 campaign. This latest scandal involved members of his staff allegedly going undercover as staffers for future opponents all in an effort to steal their signs to be used against them. As a result, the fate of the 60-year-old has been the topic of many discussions, with rumors ranging from another suspension to a lucrative new contract to remain at his alma mater to a sensational return to the NFL dominating the news cycle. With all that being said, this all appears to have had a positive effect on the Wolverines themselves, who have thus adopted a us against the world mentality that has carried them through the controversy. Simply put, this has proven to be a VERY resilient team, folks, winning a number of games against top competition without their Head Coach, including a 24-15 defensive struggle at (No. 10) Penn State along with their 30-24 triumph over (No. 7) Ohio State at the Big House. The Maise & Blue completed just SEVEN passes in the win over the Nittany Lions, taking the air out of the football with 227 rushing yards on forty-six carries against what was statistically the best defense in the country, while forcing a pair of turnovers to topple the Buckeyes for the third consecutive season. Harbaugh returned for their 26-0 shutout of (No. 20) Iowa in the BIG 10 Title Game, setting up a heavyweight clash with (No. 4) Alabama in the National Semifinals. Talk about pressure, but this was the stage in which the Wolverines had met defat in each of their previous two trips to the Playoff, with this one coming against the Crimson Tide, no less, who had taken care of business in SIX consecutive semis. Hell, the reaction from the UM players upon learning of their opponent revealed to the world that they weren’t thrilled to be matched up with the Tide. However, there is an old saying from a completely different sport that applies here: “to be the man, you have to beat the man.” And that is exactly what Michigan did in last Monday’s showdown at the Rose Bowl. In truth, this one was A LOT closer than it should have been as Harbaugh’s charges outgained ‘Bama 351-288 in total yardage, but some boneheaded errors kept the SEC Champions in it. Trailing 13-20 with just under five minutes left to play, (Junior Quarterback) J.J. McCarthy calmly engineered an 8-play, 75-yard drive, which featured a crucial 27-yard conversion to (Junior Tailback) Blake Corum on fourth-and-two, before eventually hitting (Junior Wideout) Roman Wilson for a 4-yard touchdown to draw even with forty seconds left in regulation. With both sides content to go to overtime, the Wolverines received possession first, as Corum accounted for twenty-five yards in two plays, including the 17-yard winner. The Crimson Tide would march all the way to the 3-yard line, though a fourth down attempt from Jalen Milroe to keep the ball and thrust up the middle of the defense was halted short of the destination by the BIG 10 Champions. In the end, Corum amassed 118 yards from scrimmage and two scores on twenty-one touches, while McCarthy completed 17-of-27 passes for 221 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for another twenty-five yards to boot. (Defensive Coordinator) Jesse Minter’s troops limited Milroe to sixty-three rushing yards on twenty-one carries, along with just 166 yards on 16-of-23 passing, sacking him SIX times and pressuring him on a wealth of other snaps. (Senior Defensive Back) Quinten Johnson forced a key fumble early in the fourth quarter to help wrestle momentum away from the Tide, while (Junior Defensive Lineman) Braiden McGregor logged a pair of sacks.
From a betting perspective, Michigan comes into this National Final an unbeaten 14-0 straight-up, though have also been rewarding to those who’ve wagered upon them, posting a healthy 8-5-1 record against the spread to boot. After going winless in that regard through their first four contests (0-3-1 ATS), the Wolverines have really settled into a groove in covering all but two of their last ten outings, including each of their past three affairs, including that heavyweight clash with Alabama (-2) in the National Semifinal. Favored in every game this season, Harbaugh’s troops are undefeated against the spread in their last four tilts as a favorite of seven points or less, which is significant given that they are favored by 4.5 points tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, UM has faced UW on thirteen occasions, owning an 8-5 advantage dating back to 1926. Their most recent encounter came just two years ago, when they physically manhandled the Huskies in a 31-10 affair at the Big House. The hosts rushed for 343 yards and four touchdowns on a whopping FIFTY-FOUR carries, with Corum breaching the end zone three times, the first being a 67-yard sprint to the house. With that being said, this current incarnation of the Wolverines is a rather different group than the one that emerged victorious in that contest, what with McCarthy, who was a freshman, starting at Quarterback, and a different defensive scheme helmed by Minter, who has incorporated plenty of NFL concepts he learned from his time with the Ravens. That unit held Washington to 343 total yards on nineteen first downs, including just fifty rushing yards despite thirty-two attempts, while racking up four sacks (including 2.5 from former Defensive End, Aidan Hutchinson), seven tackles for loss, and a forced fumble courtesy of (former Safety) Brad Hawkins and recovery by (Former Edge) David Ojabo. On the injury front, the biggest loss for Michigan is that of (Junior Guard) Zak Zinter, who fractured both his fibula and tibia in the triumph over Ohio State, which is notable in its effect on the ground game. In their first venture without him, the rushing attack was relegated to a season-low sixty-six yards on thirty-four carries against Iowa’s stout defense in the BIG 10 Title Game, though they managed to course correct in last Monday’s win over Alabama with 130 yards on thirty-two attempts. Looking ahead, a win tonight would see the Wolverines win their TENTH National Championship in school history, though it would be their first since 1997 when they were officially listed as co-champions with Nebraska, which would lead directly to the advent of the BCS. As for the future beyond tonight’s affair in Houston, we’ll have to wait and see what Harbaugh ultimately decides to do, with his destiny likely being a return to the NFL, which is a story that has only gained more traction after he hired the services of Don Yee, who also represents (former Michigan and serial Super Bowl-inning QB) Tom Brady and (Denver Broncos HC) Sean Payton.
Meanwhile, we tried telling you al last week that Washington (14-0, 9-0 in PAC-12) really shouldn’t have been the most overlooked team in this Playoff, and unfortunately for the good folks in Austin, they are now well acquainted with this truth. While it had earned a reputation for being a soft conference in recent years, the PAC-12 was arguably the best league in the country this Fall, what with six of its number regularly occupying a place in the AP Poll. The fact that these Huskies managed to pilot through such an arduous path, which included six ranked opponents, four of which were ranked in the Top-10 at the time, including TWO victories over (No. 8) Oregon, should cement their status as one of the four best teams in the country. In just his second season in Seattle, (2023 Coach of the Year) Kalen DeBoer has done a tremendous job in rebuilding a program that really fell off the rails after the departure of (former HC) Chris Petersen, recruiting his ass off and making full use of the Transfer Portal. Alongside (Offensive Coordinator) Ryan Grubb, he has cultivated the most formidable passing attack in the country, built on the arm of (Heisman finalist) Michael Penix Jr., who has reinvented himself since transferring to UW. Despite flashes of greatness, injuries ultimately prevented him from reaching his potential during his four years at Indiana, though that has not been the case at Washington, where in two seasons he has thrown for a staggering 9,321 yards and SIXTY-SIX touchdowns. This Fall, Penix (pictured below) has been the trigger man for an attack that has averaged 37.6 points (10th in FBS) on 473.6 total yards, including 350.0 through the air on 9.35 yards per attempt. The lefty has been the recipient of excellent pass-protection from 2023 recipients of the Joe Moore award, which goes to the nation’s best collective Offensive Line, who conceded just NINETEEN sacks (1st in FBS). If not for the exploits of Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr, (Junior Wideout) Rome Odunze would be billed as the top Receiver in the country, providing his Quarterback with a physical 6’3″ target that has plenty of speed and runs precise routes. Since Penix arrived, Odunze has hauled in 162 receptions for 2,698 yards and twenty touchdowns, including 1,553 yards and thirteen scores this Fall. However, he is far from the only weapon in the Huskies’ arsenal, with (fellow Wideouts) Ja’Lynn Polk (1,122 yards, 9 TD) and Jalen McMillan (526 yards, 4 TD) along with (Junior Tailback) Dillon Johnson (1,152 yards, 16 TD). Each of these individuals played sizeable roles in last Monday night’s 37-31 triumph over (No. 3) Texas, their second victory over the Longhorns in little over a year. Just as they did in the 2022 Cotton Bowl Classic, Penix & Co TORCHED Beevo’s boys, racking up 532 total yards of offense on twenty-five first downs, including 430 yards on the arm of Penix, who saw his NFL Draft stock inflate exponentially. The Senior completed 29-of-38 passes with many of them traveling deep downfield, evidenced by the healthy 11.3 yards per attempt that he averaged. Hell, he accounted for NINE pass plays of 19+ yards, including a 29-yard touchdown to Polk and a 19-yard score to McMillan. Odunze led the way with 125 yards on six receptions, while Polk wasn’t far behind with 122 on five catches, with McMillan rounding out the triumvirate with another fifty-eight yards of his own. With all that being said, the Huskies’ defense was forced to make some plays too, holding off Texas’ furious rally in the fourth quarter; with forty-five seconds left and starting from their own 31-yard line, the BIG XII Champions marched all the way down to UW’s 13-yard line, though saw each of their last three attempts into the end zone fall to the turf at Caesars Superdome putting a bow on what was nothing short of a New Year’s Day thriller.
From a betting perspective, Washington may be a perfect 14-0 straight-up coming into tonight’s National Championship Game, but it has been a very different story against the spread, posting a middling 7-6-1 record in that regard. Granted, a reason for the chasm between the two marks is due to their inability to cover the larger point spreads that they’ve faced this season; the Huskies went 3-6 in games in which they were favored by more than a touchdown, with all three of those victories coming before the calendar transitioned to October. With that being said, DeBoer’s troops are not favored in this affair, which should grab the attention of many in the betting community. UW has covered FIVE straight games in which they’ve received points from the oddsmakers, which has been the case in three of their last for contests, including their 34-31 triumph over Oregon in the PAC-12 Title Game (+10) and of course last Monday Night’s win over the Longhorns (+3.5). Looking at this particular matchup, the Huskies trail the all-time series between these schools 5-8, though they have crossed paths only once since 2002, that aforementioned 10-31 affair from the Big House two years ago. Granted, we don’t think that there is much you can read into this one, folks, for this tilt took place a year before the school hired DeBoer or welcomed the talents of Penix. Speaking of the lefty, he however, is well-acquainted with the Wolverines after spending the first four years of his collegiate career in the BIG 10. During the wild and crazy COVID-19 ravaged campaign of 2020, Penix led the Hoosiers to a 38-21 victory in Bloomington, completing 30-of-50 passes for 342 yards and three touchdowns and zero turnovers. Michigan’s defense struggled to get any heat whatsoever on the Quarterback, failing to register a single sack on the afternoon. On the injury front, the main concern is the status of the aforementioned Johnson, who was seen carted off the field at the climax of their triumph over Texas in the National Semifinal. Backfield depth has been a concern for much of the season, with the Mississippi State transfer carrying the load with 1,162 yards and sixteen touchdowns on a healthy 5.2 yards per carry, including 152 yards and a pair of scores in that win over the Ducks back in early December. Thankfully, DeBoer has indicated that Johnson should start tonight, officially carrying a designation of probable, which is key as the offense must attempt to some balance to keep the Wolverines’ defense honest. Looking ahead, a win tonight would secure the program’s second National Championship and first since 1991, which should be a boon towards DeBoer’s recruiting as the school makes the transition to the BIG 10 next Fall.