10:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Suns -4.0, Over/Under: 243.5
An NBA Finals rematch from yesteryear is on tap tonight from the desert, though both teams will look considerably different than when they clashed three years ago, as the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns cross paths in a star-studded showdown from Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. In regard to the 2021 Finals, the Bucks (33-17, 3rd in Eastern Conference) undoubtedly share the fondest of memories, ripping off four consecutive victories after falling into an 0-2 hole en route to earning the franchise its first Larry O’Brien Trophy in fifty years. However, if you take one look at this current iteration of Milwaukee and you will see a very different one than the group that reigned supreme, from both a player personnel perspective and from the sidelines. After getting stunned by the eighth-seeded Heat in the first round of last year’s playoffs, the club decided to part ways with (longtime Head Coach) Mike Budenholzer, and after a lengthy search settled upon (former Raptors assistant) Adrian Griffin. Not long after hiring Griffin, (General Manager) Jon Horst swung for the fences and acquired the services of (perennial All-Star Guard) Damian Lillard in a three-team trade, pairing the sharpshooter with (two-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo, who had just put pen to paper on a lengthy new contract extension. While the addition of Dame (pictured below alongside Giannis) certainly altered the team’s chemistry, the Bucks were nonetheless expected by many to compete for an NBA Title, and though their record would certainly indicate that they were on their way towards doing just that, a deeper dive into the happenings in Milwaukee would reveal a team in crisis. So, what in the name of Lew Alcindor happened to these deer, you ask? Well, in many respects, the Griffin era appeared to be on borrowed time from the jump, as the newly-minted HC lost (lead assistant and former Blazers HC) Terry Stotts during training camp, while many of the players that he inherited were resistant to the changes he attempted to employ, particularly on the defensive end of the hardwood. Furthermore, there were repeated spats with Antetokounmpo, who at one point decided to check himself back into a game immediately after being subbed out by Griffin. Essentially, he never managed to earn the trust/favor of the locker room, and as such, paid the price for it. Eventually, the 49-year-old would be relieved of his duties in shocking fashion, leaving Horst to appoint (assistant coach) Joe Prunty in charge until he was able to find a long-term solution, which turned out to be none other than (longtime Head Coach) Doc Rivers. Of course, Rivers had parted ways with the 76ers after coming up short in the playoffs for a third consecutive campaign and was performing color commentary for ESPN when he was approached by the Bucks, who would promptly sign him to a four-year/$40 million deal until the 2026-2027 season. Sure, coaches get fired in season all the time, but let us not pretend that this is going to be an easy operation for Rivers, who will be behind the proverbial 8-ball for the rest of the year, without the benefits of a proper offseason or training camp to prime the roster with his ideals and tactics. In the four games since his arrival, Milwaukee is 1-3 with the bulk of their struggles to be found on the defensive end, where they have shipped 118.0 points per game on 49.9% shooting, including 38.0% from downtown, along with 27.0 assists opposed to 14.0 to turnovers, all the while getting outrebounded by a sizable margin (-8.2).
When we last saw the Bucks, they succumbed to the third of those said defeats, a 108-123 drubbing at the Jazz, the second leg of a back-to-back on this grueling western road trip. After handling the Mavericks (129-117), Milwaukee simply ran out of gas in the fourth quarter in Utah, where they were outscored 13-40; tired legs led to 4-of-17 shooting int he period (23.5%), including 2-of-12 from three (16.7%) and 3-of-8 from the charity stripe (37.5%), while the hosts drilled 15-of-25 attempts overall (60.0%), with eleven assists in comparison to just one turnover. When it was all said and done, Antetokounmpo totaled thirty-three points on 11-of-15 shooting (73.3%), seven rebounds, thirteen assists, and a block, while (versatile Forward) Bobby Portis added twenty-seven points, seven boards, and three steals. However, Lillard struggled mightily in this one, finishing with just twelve points on 5-of-18 shooting (27.8%), including a dreadful 1-of-8 from three (12.5%). From a betting perspective, the Bucks just 19-31 against the spread, which should serve as a telltale sign that there was trouble in paradise for Griffin & Co, with the club mirroring their straight-up record under Rivers (1-3 ATS). With this being the final game of their aforementioned road trip, it should be noted that Milwaukee has covered only ONE of their last TEN road games. Furthermore, they have yet to cover a single game as an underdog this season (0-4), which is rather remarkable when you think about it. Looking at this particular matchup, the deer have taken seven of the past eight meetings with the Suns, including the final four chapters of the 2021 NBA Finals (6-2 ATS). When they last met, Giannis & Co left the desert with a 116-104 victory, in which the 2021 Finals MVP asserted himself with thirty-six points on 11-of-23 shooting (47.8%), eleven rebounds, and eight assists, while planting his flag at the charity stripe where he knocked down 14-of-24 free-throws (58.3%), which was as many as Phoenix had as a team. On the injury front, Antetokounmpo (knee), Lillard (ankle), and (veteran Center) Brook Lopez (personal) are all listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s affair with various ailments, though it is expected that they will indeed be suiting up for action. Looking ahead, the Bucks will return to FISERV Forum for a welcome 4-game homestand, where they will host the (reigning NBA Champion) Nuggets before crossing paths with their postseason nemesis, the Heat the very next night.
Meanwhile, with all due respect to their opponent tonight, but the Suns (29-21, 7th in Western Conference) have altered themselves even more so from the one that managed to take a 2-game lead in the 2021 NBA Finals. Similar to Milwaukee, Phoenix also experienced a premature exit despite being the top seed in their respective conference, which led them to execute the biggest in-season blockbuster of the previous campaign, acquiring the services of (2-time Finals MVP) Kevin Durant last February. However, even the presence of the four-time scoring champion wasn’t enough to propel them back to the Finals, which prompted even more change in the desert, all of which was instigated by a change in ownership. It was no coincidence that the Durant deal happened shortly after (new Owner0) Matt Ishbia became the boss, and it was also no surprise that he fired (2021-2022 Coach of the Year) Monty Williams after getting thumped by the Nuggets in the Western Semis. Indeed, Ishbia and (General Manager) James Jones continued to remake the team, hiring (2019-2020 NBA Champion) Frank Vogel to be the new Head Coach, before eventually packaging (future Hall of Fame Point Guard) Chris Paul and (former no. one overall pick) DeAndre Ayton in a blockbuster deal with the Wizards and Trail Blazers in return for the services of (former All-Star Guard) Bradley Beal. In assembling the latest big three that the league has become so infatuated with, the Suns announced to the rest of the NBA that they were deadly serious about securing the franchise’s first Larry O’Brien Trophy. However, as we’ve seen with Milwaukee, altering the chemistry of your roster so dramatically can have plenty of adverse effects. So, with that in mind, how has this experiment gone for Phoenix, you ask? Well, with fifty games in the books, it is hard to decipher a proper answer to that query, for the simple fact that their triumvirate of Durant, Beal, and (fellow All-Star) Devin Booker (pictured below alongside Durant and Beal) have only played together twenty times during that span, which equates to only 40.0% of their games. In those tilts, the team is 12-8 (.600), which is promising as Vogel appears to have finally settled upon a concrete lineup of late. Over the last fifteen games, Durant, Booker, and Beal have started alongside (veteran Center) Jusuf Nurkic and the results have been successful; the Suns are 10-5 in this sample set, which includes a season-high 7-game win streak, while averaging a robust 121.9 points per game on 53.9% shooting from the field, including 38.9% from downtown, and dishing out 27.9 assists in comparison to committing 13.9 turnovers. Granted, the concerns over the skillsets of those three players being redundant is very real, while the overall depth, particularly in the frontcourt, is worrying, but there is belief that this unit can reach an even higher ceiling with more experience working together. Will they be active at the Trade Deadline once again? We certainly wouldn’t put it past Ishbia and Jones to stir the pot even more so…
When we last saw the Suns, they hammered the Wizards in the finale of their own 7-game road trip, leaving the nation’s capital with a 140-112 victory against one of the worst teams in the league. This one was notable for the fact that it served as Beal’s homecoming to the city where he spent the first eleven seasons of his professional career. Washington drafted him third overall in the 2012 NBA Draft, with the 30-year-old earning three All-Star nods and All-NBA honors in 2020-2021, with five trips to the playoffs under his belt. It was clear that Beal was motivated to face his former employers, as he torched the Wizards for forty-three points on 16-of-21 shooting (76.2%). This one was never close, folks, as the visitors raced out to a 42-28 lead in the first quarter and never looked back. At the end of the day, Phoenix shot 61.4% from the field, including 11-of-25 from beyond the arc (44.0%) and 21-of-26 from the charity stripe (80.8%), with thirty-three assists to compensate for seventeen turnovers. Durant and Nurkic added eighteen points apiece, with the latter logging thirteen rebounds and eight assists, a season high for the big Bosnian. From a betting perspective Phoenix has also been much worse against the spread (19-30-1) than straight-up, though being a favorite has been good to them (24-14 ATS). With that being said, they have failed to cover four consecutive games against opponents over .500. Also, keep an eye if this line rises above four points, for this is a team that is a dreadful 1-10-1 against the spread in their last twelve outings as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. When they last crossed paths in that aforementioned 104-116 defeat from last March, the Suns were still recovering from the effects of the Durant blockbuster, with the 2013-2014 MVP missing the game altogether due to injury. Remarkably, there are just three players left on the roster from that affair, including Booker, who was the only Sun to find a rhythm, totaling thirty points on 13-of-27 shooting (48.1%), four rebounds, three assists, and a pair of steals, though also committed five turnovers. Looking ahead, Phoenix will host Utah on Thursday before traveling to San Francisco to battle Golden State on Saturday night, finishing up the first half of the campaign at home against Sacramento and Detroit before the All-Star Break.