7:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Thunder -2.5, Over/Under: 223
Blossoming, small-market teams get a chance to entertain in primetime before a national audience, as the Oklahoma City Thunder look to put an end to their road woes in this trip to Central Florida, where the Orlando Magic hope to keep pushing up the table within the Eastern Conference. For a few years now, there has been a growing contingent within NBA circles lamenting the looming arrival of the Thunder (36-17, 2nd in Western Conference), who after years of hoarding what feels like all the draft picks available for nearly a decade and turning them into talented, young players, appears to have finally arrived. Indeed, when (Head Coach) Mike Daignault arrived in Oklahoma City in 2021, he led one of the youngest teams in the Association to a fourteenth place finish out West (24-58), only to improve by leaps and bounds a year later, even booking a trip to the play-in tournament at 42-40. That’s an 18-game improvement, folks. And it is with that said, that OKC is at it again, making yet another leap thirty-six wins in fifty-three games, which would put them on course for roughly fifty-five victories, which would be the most that they’ve achieved since the tandem of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook led them a game away from the NBA Finals back in 2016. So, what has changed for the Thunder, you ask? Well, it has been a coming of age for many young players this season, though the biggest difference has been the addition of (Sophomore Center) Chet Holmgren, who has been a revelation in this, his first proper campaign with the club. The second overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, Holmgren (pictured below) missed his entire rookie year rehabbing from a Lisfranc injury to his foot suffered in the offseason, though has made quite the belated impression, averaging 16.8 points on 53.6% shooting from the field, including 39.4% from beyond the arc, along with 7.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 2.6 blocks, with his 7-1 frame proving to be a welcome sight for a roster loaded with guard and wing depth. Combined with (All-NBA Guard) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has ascended to MVP-contender status, and the big fella has the Thunder looking like a serious factor in the West, which is huge for a team that has an average age of 22.7 years old. However, that youth can betray them from time to time, particularly on the road where they are just 15-11 thus far, including three consecutive losses in which they have shipped 130.0 points on 53.1% shooting.
When we last saw the Thunder, they hammered one of their contemporaries out West, the Kings, in a 127-113 affair on Sunday afternoon. Defense was optional in this one, as the visitors shot 48.9% from the field, including 16-of-42 from beyond the arc (38.1%), with thirty-two assists in comparison to eighteen turnovers. While those are solid numbers, they paled in comparison to those of Oklahoma City, who were as strong as ever, shooting a blistering 54.1% from the floor, including 13-of-27 from downtown (48.1%), with thirty assists opposed to just nine turnovers. Apart from setting the nylon on fire, the difference in this one was the charity stripe, where the hosts calmly netted 22-of-27 free-throws (81.5%), which equated to a +14 differential against a side who is coincidentally one of the worst free-throw-shooting teams in the league. Gilgeous-Alexander was sublime in totaling thirty-eight points on 15-of-26 shooting (57.7%) and 3-of-4 from three (75.0%), with three rebounds, seven assists, and a pair of steals. Fifteen of his points came in the first quarter, as his aggressive drives to the rim (6-of-8 FG) paid off handsomely and set the tone the rest of the way. (Sophomore Forward) Jalen Williams took over from there, scoring fourteen of his thirty-two points in the second period, in which the Thunder outscored the visiting side 38-30. When it was all said and done, he and SGA combined for SEVENTY points on 28-of-46 shooting (60.8%), including 5-of-8 from long-range (62.5%), along with sixteen assists. Holmgren finished with fourteen points, four rebounds, and four blocks, while Lugentz Dort added seventeen points, nine rebounds, and three steals. Those turnovers from Sacramento weighed heavily in this contest, as Daignault’s troops manufactured them into thirty points, while Holmgren’s presence around the rim was infectious with this side coming up with nine blocks.
From a betting perspective, the Thunder have also been one of the best teams in the NBA in terms of covering the spread, posting a stellar 33-20 record in that regard. However, the bulk of that success came earlier in the campaign, as Oklahoma City covered twenty-four of their first thirty-two games. It’s been a different story of late, as the oddsmakers have adjusted to compensate for their growth, with just nine covers in their last twenty-one outings. This goes back to their struggles on the road, where they are 5-5 against the spread over their last ten trips away from Paycom Center, including 0-3 in their last three. Looking at this particular matchup, the home team has won each of the last five meetings (4-1 ATS), which was the case when they met in Oklahoma City back in mid-January, a 112-100 victory for the hosts. This one was closer than the final score would indicate, though the difference proved to be the Thunder’s ability to create havoc and force turnovers, pressuring the Magic into fifteen of them, which led to ten more shot attempts from the field. Again, Gilgeous-Alexander was dominant, totaling thirty-seven points on 13-of-20 shooting (65.0%), netting 11-of-12 free-throws (91.7%), with six rebounds, seven assists, and three steals. Holmgren, who watched up with Paolo Banchero (much more on him in a bit), who drafted ahead of him in the 2022 Draft, handled himself well with fifteen points, eight rebounds, three assists, and a pair of blocks. On the injury front, Daignault & Co will have to wait until after the All-Star Break before they can see how (veteran Swingman) Gordon Hayward fits into the equation, with the former All-Star continuing to ramp up his activities and conditioning after missing the last twenty-four games due to a lingering calf injury. Given their cache of draft picks and loads of cap space, there has been a wealth of speculation as to whether or not (General Manager) Sam Presti would make a move to bolster his team for the playoffs and adding the 33-year-old is certainly an interesting move. While injuries have derailed his once promising career, Hayward’s skillset figures to fit in well with Daignault’s scheme, with his experience figuring to be vital for such a young roster.
Meanwhile, the Magic (29-24, 7th in Eastern Conference) are following a similar path in comparison to their opponent tonight, making comparable leaps of growth within a parallel window. Indeed, Orlando has spent over a decade lost in the proverbial wilderness, with ten losing campaigns over the last eleven seasons and only a pair of first-round exits to show for their troubles. Similar to Oklahoma City, they have been collecting draft picks for years, but unlike their western counterpart, hitting on said draft picks has been a different story altogether, with a revolving door of coaches leaving the roster looking like a veritable puzzle littered with ill-fitting pieces. With that being said, we’re going to give (Head Coach) Jamahl Mosley some credit for the work that he’s done in Central Florida. In his first year on the job, his troops struggled to a 22-60 finish, which ultimately netted them the first overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. Mosley and (General Manager) Jeff Weltman opted to pass on the aforementioned Holmgren in favor of (promising Forward) Paolo Banchero, who would go on to earn Rookie of the year honors, leading the team with 20.0 points per game on 42.7% shooting, with 6.9 rebounds and 3.7 assists. As a result, the team improved by twelve games (34-48), just missing out on a spot in the play-in tournament. Now in year three, the Magic are on the right side of .500 at this point of the season for the first time in quite a while, which would put them on course for a for their best record (44-38) since the end of the Dwight Howard era back in 2010-2011. After getting off to an inspiring 14-5 start, Orlando hit a serious midseason swoon that lasted for nearly two months, winning just nine of their next twenty-five games. Thankfully, Mosley & Co have appeared to have righted the ship, winning six of their last eight contests, due in large part to an offense that may finally be ready to erupt. Simply put, this is NOT one of the better offensive teams in the Association, folks, thanks to a lack of shooting and spacing; this is a group that ranks dead-last in three-point field goals (10.9), twenty-seventh in attempts (31.3), and twenty-eighth in percentage (34.8%), which in today’s game isn’t a recipe for success. Over these last eight tilts, they have flipped the script, netting 11.9-of-30.5 treys (38.9%), which has resulted in a +4.8 differential in that regard, representing a positive turn of events in comparison to the -2.1 margin that they’ve posted on the season. Banchero (pictured below) has continued to grow, raising his scoring average (22.8), field goal percentage (45.3%), assists (5.2), and above all his perimeter shooting (35.9%) en route to his first All-Star selection. Buoying him is (third year Forward) Franz Wagner, who was selected eighth overall a year before his teammate and has grown at a similar rate, averaging 21.2 points on 47.9% shooting, along with 5.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.1 steals. Wagner (pictured alongside Banchero) has been on fire of late, scoring 30+ points in three of the last four contests, including the one that we’re about to get into…
When we last saw the Magic, they toppled the Bulls in an entertaining 114-108 overtime affair on Saturday night, which saw them overcome an 11-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Defense was the key to victory in this one, as the hosts relegated Chicago to just fifteen points in the final stanza on 6-of-18 shooting (33.3%), while Wagner nearly outscored them all by himself, with fourteen points on 3-of-6 shooting (50.0%), all from downtown, and 5-of-6 shooting (83.3%) from the charity stripe. It was more of the same in OT, as Orlando shot 5-of-10 (50.0%) and held the visitors to 3-of-12 (25.0%). When it was all said and done, Mosley’s charges ultimately won this game at the stripe, knocking down 19-of-26 singles (73.1%) in comparison to 10-of-14 from the Bulls (71.4%). No doubt he will be lamenting the seventeen turnovers that Chicago parlayed into thirty-one points, but Wagner’s heroics coupled with a productive bench helped compensate for those shortcomings. Indeed, the German international was in his bag in this tilt, scoring thirty-six points on 12-of-22 shooting (54.5%), including 5-of-12 from three (41.7%) and 7-of-10 from the free-throw line (70.0%), along with three rebounds and five assists. Banchero added nineteen points, seven rebounds, and eight assists, though struggled on 5-of-13 shooting (38.5%), making up for it at the stripe (8-of-9). As for the bench, the Magic outscored their opponent’s reserves 35-12, with (young Point Guard) Cole Anthony coming up big with fourteen points, eleven rebounds, and three assists.
From a betting perspective, the Magic have been much better against the spread than they have straight-up, posting a stellar 35-18 record in that regard. Being a young team exceeding expectations has been a narrative that has worked for bettors, as it appears that the oddsmakers have yet to adjust to growth in the same way that they have to the Thunder. Orlando covered fifteen of their eighteen games of the season, and are currently on a 7-1 run of late, including each of their last two. Interestingly, this is the first time that they’ve been a home underdog since hosting the Suns two weeks ago, which ended in a 113-98 affair, furthering their success in such games. In their last seven games at Away Center in which they’ve received 0.5-4.5 points from the oddsmakers, this team is a commanding 6-1 against the spread. Looking at this particular matchup, we covered the strength of the home teams in this series, which was the case when they met in Oklahoma City back on January 13th. In that 100-112 defeat, Mosley & Co couldn’t overcome a slow start in which they trailed 40-49 at halftime, with fifteen turnovers proving to be the difference maker. Banchero led the way with twenty points, nine rebounds, and eight assists, while Wagner was sidelined due to injury.