9:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Houston -9.5, Over/Under: 128.5
With March in sight, a pair of Top-10 programs cross paths, as the (No. 10) Iowa State Cyclones battle the (No. 3) Houston Cougars in this Big XII clash from Fertitta Center in Houston, Texas. One of the better stories in the Big XII this season has easily been the resurrection of Iowa State (20-5, 9-3 in Big XII), who now in their third year under the watch of (Head Coach) T.J. Otzelberger, are flying higher than they have in a decade. Indeed, Otzelberger (pictured below) inherited a 2-22 program that was in utter shambles, though has managed to rebuild it remarkably short order; the Cyclones flipped the script and finished 22-13 in his first campaign in Ames, advancing all the way to the Sweet Sixteen, and followed that up with a 19-14 mark last year, bowing out of the NCAA Tournament in the First Round. While they managed to win 60.2% of their games during those first two seasons, the silver lining was that they had continued to struggle within the mighty Big XII, posting a mediocre 16-20 (.444) record against their conference brethren. However, that doesn’t seem to be the case in year three as ISU walk into tonight’s encounter with Houston owning a share of first place, winning nine of their first twelve league tilts. Otzelberger’s troops have rounded into one of the better teams on the defensive end, ranking second in the Big XII in points allowed (66.2) and first in steals (9.3). Winners of four consecutive games, they’ve leaned into that strength, relegating the opposition to 64.3 points on 42.1% shooting from the field, including 30.5% from downtown, while forcing more turnovers (14.3) than assists conceded (13.3).
When we last saw Iowa State, they bested Texas Tech in an 82-74 affair from Hilton Coliseum, riding the wave of a 38-24 first half lead that they would never relinquish. The key all season for the Cyclones has been their ability to force turnovers, which was the case in this one, folks, as the hosts came away with fifteen takeaways, which afforded them the luxury of attempting seventeen more field goals than their opponent (70-53). On the day, Otzelberger’s outfit shot a solid 47.1% from the field, including 27-of-51 from within the three-point arc (52.9%), while dishing out thirteen assists in comparison to committing just six turnovers. Five different players scored in double-figures, led by (Junior Guard) Keshon Gilbert, who totaled twenty-four points on 8-of-16 shooting (50.0%), including 4-of-7 from three (57.1%), along with eight rebounds, five assists, and a steal. The UNLV transfer has transitioned to Big XII with little trouble, averaging 14.2 points on 46.0% shooting, 4.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.6 steals. (Sophomore Point Guard) Tamin Lipsey isn’t far behind with 13.2 points along with team-highs in assists (5.5) and steals (2.9), which also happens to lead the conference. From a betting perspective, ISU is a stellar 17-7-1 against the spread thus far, covering nine of their last eleven outings, including each of the last five. Furthermore, this is a team that has handled themselves well against tough competition, covering the spread in their last five meetings with teams over .600. looking at this particular matchup, the Cyclones defeated the Cougars in a 57-53 affair back on January 9th. Again, all the ingredients were there for success, as the hosts turned Houston over sixteen times while permitting just eight assists, relegating the visiting side to 38.0% shooting and 7-of-26 from beyond the arc (26.9%). Granted, ISU didn’t shoot much better themselves (38.3%), ultimately winning this contest from the charity stripe, where they were +10 on 18-of-22 shooting (81.8%). Lipsey was the man of the match in this one, scoring fourteen points, with four rebounds, two assists, and a steal, though did account for four of his team’s twelve turnovers. Looking ahead, Iowa State will return to Ames for a date with West Virginia this weekend followed by a showdown with (No. 25) Oklahoma, who beat them 63-71 in Norman back on January 6th.
Meanwhile, Houston (22-3, 9-3 in Big XII) came into this season ranked seventh overall and have resided within the Top-10 of the polls throughout the campaign, rising as high as second overall before that aforementioned loss at Ames. Now in his tenth season with the Cougars, (Head Coach) Kelvin Sampson faces the challenge of ushering the program into a different conference; the 68-year-old won four of the last five AAC Titles with UH, highlighted by a run to the Final Four 2021, followed by appearances in the Elite Eight and Sweet Sixteen. For those wondering how his side would transition into the Big XII, any concerns have been put to bed quickly, as they currently share the lead in the conference, while pacing the league in points allowed (61.0), rebounds (35.5), and offensive rebounds (12.2). Winners of three consecutive contests, Houston has all but shut down the opposition, yielding 62.0 points on just 38.7% from the field, including a scant 28.8% from beyond the arc, all the while outrebounding them by 10.0 boards, and forcing 12.3 turnovers in comparison to permitting just 7.3 assists. Experience has had a lot to do with this successful transition between conferences, with Sampson’s (pictured below) comprised largely of upperclassmen, including three seniors, led by the backcourt tandem of LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead. The former, an impactful transfer from Baylor, has adjusted well after making the short trip from Waco, averaging a team-best 15.3 points per game, while serving as their top three-point threat (38.5%). As for Shead, is there a more vested Guard in the nation? With ninety-six starts under his belt, he has embodied this era of Houston hoops, posting 12.8 points on 44.1% shooting, with 3.9 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 2.3 steals.
When we last saw Houston, they utterly dismantled their northern neighbors, Texas, in an 82-61 encounter at Fertitta Center over the weekend. This one was over quickly, as the hosts raced out to an early 10-point lead before taking a commanding 40-27 advantage into intermission. In the end, the Cougars shot a healthy 46.8% from the field, including 21-of-39 from within the arc (53.8%), though really made an impact on the offensive glass, where they secured SIXTEEN offensive rebounds, which led to a wealth of second-chance opportunities for the home side. The aforementioned Cryer was in his bag in this one, folks, scoring a career-high twenty-six points on an efficient 9-of-13 shooting (69.2%), including a blistering 6-of-9 from downtown (66.7%), while Shead added sixteen points and a remarkable eleven rebounds, which isn’t too shabby for a guy who stands just 6’1″. Shead also accounted for six of his team’s thirteen steals, with another four coming from (Sophomore Guard) Emanuel Sharp, who added another fifteen points of his own. From a betting perspective, Houston is 13-11-1 against the spread thus far, coming off their first cover in five outings (1-3-1 ATS). Tonight’s visit from Iowa State will present the Cougars with an opportunity to turn the tide against tough opponents, as they have covered just one of their last six home games against opponents residing above .500. Looking at this particular matchup, Sampson’s troops have lost just three games this season with one of them being that previously mentioned 53-57 loss at the Cyclones, which was as defensive an affair as one could imagine. Both teams shot well below 40.0% from the field and 30.0% from the perimeter, though it would be self-inflicted wounds that ultimately did in the visitors, who turned it over sixteen times, which runs counter to success in matchup in that sees a minimization in possessions. Shead and Sharp accounted for all but nineteen of UH’s point total, with the latter scoring twenty points on 6-of-12 shooting (50.0%), including 5-of-10 from three (50.0%), with five rebounds and a steal. For Shead, it was very much a mixed bag; despite registering three boards, three assists, and a pair of steals and blocks apiece, he struggled mightily on 5-of-15 shooting (33.3%), including 1-of-8 from long-range (12.5%), while committing five turnovers along the way. Looking ahead, Houston will head to (No. 12) Baylor for a key showdown in Waco this weekend, who trail them by just one game in the conference standings.