7:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Alabama -8.5, Over/Under: 174.5
It’s an SEC showdown tonight in Tuscaloosa, as the much-improved Florida Gators visit Coleman Coliseum to face the (No. 15) Alabama Crimson Tide, who are looking to maintain their seat at the top of the conference. With just a few weeks left before the end of the regular season, it appears that Florida (8-7, 8-4 in SEC) may finally be out of proverbial wilderness that they have been lost in for the better part of the last decade. Despite their history of success, this is a program that has lost 10+ games in eight of the last nine campaigns, including last year, which was the first under the stewardship of (Head Coach) Todd Golden. Indeed, going from San Francisco to Gainesville is quite the transition, though the 38-yaer-old nonetheless appears to be well-suited for the leap in competition and coverage. In his first year on the job, the Gators stumbled their way to a mediocre 16-17 finish, including a second consecutive 9-9 run through the SEC. Fastforward to the present and he has the rowdy reptiles at eighteen victories and two games out of first place in the conference, with an opportunity to draw even closer with a win tonight. Like so many coaches in today’s game, Golden (pictured below) has seen this growth after tapping into the transfer portal, which has netted Florida with the bulk of their rotation. Last year, it was (Junior Guard) Will Richard coming over from Belmont, while this year their top three leading scorers, Walter Clayton, Zyon Pullin, and Tyrese Samuel have all been imported to the swamp from other programs. A Lake Wales native, Clayton has returned home after two seasons at Iona, pacing the team in scoring (16.4), while Pullin, a senior coming from UC-Riverside where he spent four years, has emerged as a steady hand at the point, leading the group with 4.9 assists. As for Samuel, the Montreal native was at Seton Hall for four seasons, now providing the Gators with an offensive presence in the paint where his size (6’10”, 235 lbs) has helped make their frontcourt one of the largest in the country. However, where this unit really creates problems is with the tempo they play at; no team in the SEC attempts more shots (67.1 FGA), particularly of the two-point variety than the reptiles (43.7), who owe a lot of that to transition and second-chance opportunities, fueled by securing 14.1 offensive rebounds (2nd in SEC) and forcing 9.8 turnovers (also 2nd in SEC). During this recent stretch in which they’ve won eight of their last ten outings, including back-to-back overtime victories over Georgia (102-98) and Kentucky (94-91), they have beaten their opponents on the boards (+7.4), logging 13.6 offensive rebounds along the way, while forcing 10.0 turnovers in comparison to permitting 11.5 assists.
When we last saw Florida, they won their third consecutive game and swept the season series with Georgia, escaping Athens with an 88-82 victory. The visitors trailed 40-46 at intermission only to put their claws on the gas in the second half, where they ousted the Bulldogs 48-36. As we’ve seen throughout the campaign, Golden’s troops aren’t necessarily a good defensive team, though they find ways to create more possessions and opportunities for themselves through takeaways and offensive boards. That was precisely the case here, where the hosts shot a blistering 50.0% from the field, including 20-of-32 from within the arc (62.5%), while netting 21-of-29 free-throws (72.4%), though were ultimately done in by committing fourteen turnovers opposed to dishing out a mere seven assists. Coupled with fifteen offensive rebounds for the visitors and you can see how the Gators managed to manufacture thirteen more shot attempts, which is how you overcome 43.3% shooting of your own. It also certainly helped that they also planted their flag at the charity stripe, knocking down 21-of-26 free-throws (80.8%). All in all, five different players scored in double-figures, led by Clayton with twenty-one points, five rebounds, and a pair of assists and steals. The bench was crucial in this one too, outscoring Georgia’s 32-27, with the tandem of Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon combining for twenty-seven points on 10-of-16 shooting (62.5%), including 4-of-6 from three (66.7%), and ten rebounds, seven of which were of the offensive variety. From a betting perspective, Florida is 12-13 against the spread thus far, though have certainly been one of the better bets of late, covering seven of their last ten contests, including three straight games as an underdog at one point. Furthermore, they have covered five consecutive games against opponents who are coming off a 100-point performance, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the Gators haven’t beaten the Tide since before the pandemic of 2020, dropping each of their last three meetings, including last year’s trip to Tuscaloosa, a 69-97 blowout. This one was ugly, folks, as Golden & Co were outscored 23-52 in the first half alone. Simply put, they couldn’t crack Bama’s defense, shooting a dismal 34.9% from the field, including 18-of-49 from within the arc (36.7%) and 4-of-14 beyond it (28.6%), with more turnovers (10) than assists (9). Looking ahead, Florida will return to Gainesville for home games against Vanderbilt and Missouri before hitting the road for a date with (No. 11) South Carolina followed by a rematch with Alabama on March 5th, which will serve as their final home game of the season.
Meanwhile, it seems that Alabama (18-7, 10-2 in SEC) has finally found the consistency that they have been searching for under the leadership of (Head Coach) Nate Oats, who has them headed for their second consecutive conference championship and third since he arrived back in 2019. During his previous four seasons in Tuscaloosa, the former Buffalo skipper would follow a season of 14+ losses with 25+ wins, including last year’s watershed 31-6 campaign, the best record in school history, culminating in a second Sweet Sixteen run in three years. However, the last time that the Crimson Tide reached that stage of the big dance, they fell to 19-14 and a middling 9-9 in SEC. So, what has changed this time around, you ask? Well, we all know that the Transfer Portal has rocked the landscape of collegiate sports, making the impact of losing the likes of star freshmen such as (2023 Second Overall Pick) Brandon Miller and Noah Clowney to the NBA Draft, much less painful because Oats and his staff can effectively reload as they see fit. Make no mistake, this is a veteran group, but one that has been cultivated from the portal, with the rotation consisting of four seniors that have been imported from other programs. (Guards) Aaron Estrada and Latrell Wrightsell alongside (Forward) Grant Nelson are all new to the Tide, arriving from Hofstra, Cal State Fullerton, and North Dakota State respectively, while (leading scorer) Mark Sears returned home last season after spending the first two years of his collegiate career at Ohio. Sears (pictured below) was pretty good as junior, but has taken his game to another level entirely in 2024, averaging 20.6 points per game on an efficient 50.6% shooting from the field, including 45.1% from downtown, along with 4.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1,8 steals. Hell, apart from a 9-point egg laid in against Missouri, the senior has dropped 20+ points in every other game in SEC play (21.9). As a result, Alabama is the most prolific and efficient offensive side in the conference, ranking first in points (88.3), two-point percentage (56.2%), three-pointers made (12.3), attempted (32.2), and free-throw percentage (80.6%), all the while committing the fewest turnovers in the league (13.2). Interestingly, when this team wins, they typically win by a wide margin, with only two of their eighteen victories coming by less than eight points, while their last outings have seen them hit the century mark, besting the likes of LSU and Texas A&M by a combined margin of FORTY-TWO points.
When we last saw Alabama, they absolutely obliterated Texas A&M in a 100-75 drubbing at Coleman Coliseum, marking the EIGHTH time this season that the crossed the century mark, the most of any Power-5 school. This one was never in doubt, folks, as the Crimson Tide torched the Aggies on 52.1% shooting, including 19-of-30 from within the arc (63.3%) and 18-of-41 beyond it (43.9%), while assisting on twenty of their thirty-seven field goals. Five different players scored in double-figures, led by Sears, who totaled twenty-three points on 8-of-14 shooting (57.1%), including 4-of-7 from downtown (57.1%), along with four rebounds and assists apiece, and three steals. (Sophomore Guard) Rylan Griffen added seventeen points and four triples of his own, while Wrightsell also hit four treys on his way to sixteen points. The money ball proved to be decisive as Oats’ outfit outscored the visitors by a staggering FORTY-TWO points in that regard, which ultimately overwhelmed them. A&M shot just 37.8% from the field, including 4-of-23 from the perimeter (17.4%), though did amass twenty-three offensive rebounds, which can be attributed to missing so many shots. Bama did a stellar job of shutting down their ball movement, permitting a scant six assists in comparison to forcing fourteen turnovers. From a betting perspective, Alabama is a solid 16-9 against the spread thus far, which including TWELVE covers in their last sixteen outings. Furthermore, they have covered five straight games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points, which is the case tonight. Looking ahead, the next three games will likely go a long way towards deciding if the Crimson Tide will be repeating as SEC Champions, as they travel to Lexington for a date with (No. 22) Kentucky, followed by a trip to Oxford against Mississippi, before returning to Tuscaloosa for a showdown with (No. 8) Tennessee, who trail them by a one game on the league table.