7:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Mavericks -3, Over/Under: 243.5
With the All-Star Break now in the rearview mirror, the race for the playoffs is on as a pair of contenders jockeying for position in the ever-convoluted Western Conference clash in this showdown between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks from American Airlines Center in North Texas. Sitting at sixth in the standings, you will have to forgive us all for losing patience with the Suns (32-23, 6th in Western Conference), who were a popular pick by many to return to the NBA Finals after suffering successive embarrassing exits in the semifinal round. After adding (4-time scoring champion) Kevin Durant before the 2023 Trade Deadline, Phoenix continued to shake up their roster, firing (former Head Coach) Monty Williams and jettisoning both Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton in a mammoth blockbuster deal that saw (All-Star Guard) Bradley Beal arrive in the desert. Though they sacrificed much of their depth in a bid to assemble the league’s next Big 3, the train of thought was that (new Head Coach) Frank Vogel would manage to cobble together a rotation that could support their triumvirate of stars, though injuries have proven to be a persistent deterrent to building the requisite chemistry needed to compete for a Larry O’Brien Trophy. Indeed, Durant, Beal, and Devin Booker (pictured together below) pack plenty of star power, combining for twenty-one All-Star selections and twelve All-NBA nods, though they simply haven’t spent enough time on the hardwood with each other, featuring together in just twenty-two of their fifty-five games thus far. When together, the Suns are 14-8 this season and a stellar +12.4 points per 100 possessions, despite that trio being only their tenth-most frequent three-man combination. For a while, it had appeared that their injury woes had finally subsided, as Durant, Booker, and Beal managed to string together eighteen starts in nineteen contests, though it was Beal who succumbed to a strained hamstring in last week’s narrow 130-125 victory over the Kings. The former Wizard has appeared in thirty games thus far, wearing a mask of late to shield a broken nose to boot, averaging 18.2 points on 49.5% shooting, including 36.3% from three, along with 4.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists, which is well below his production in Washington, giving further credence to the thought that he has yet to get fully acclimated with his new team. Speaking of getting acclimated, Vogel and (General Manager) James Jones were busy at the trade deadline adding more piece to further flesh out one of the thinner supporting casts in the NBA, adding (veteran Forward) Royce O’Neale and (burly young Forward) David Roddy in separate deals with Brooklyn and Memphis. O’Neale, who had spent the last season and change with the Nets, is a versatile swingman that can guard multiple positions, while proving to be a capable shooter to boot, netting 38.2% of his attempts over the course of his career.
When we last saw the Suns, they closed out the first half of the campaign with a 116-100 drubbing of the lowly Pistons, thanks in large part to an outstanding first half in which they outscored the visitors 70-41. The hosts shot a blistering 53.8% from the field in the first two periods, aided by a whopping TWENTY-THREE free-throw attempts (+19), which tells you all you need to know about which team was the aggressor. Durant scored a dozen of his team-high twenty-five points before halftime, finishing the night with six rebounds and assists apiece along with a steal and two blocks. Booker, on the other hand, played just five minutes before being ejected, leaving the supporting cast to pick up the pieces. (Veterans) Eric Gordon and Jusuf Nurkic totaled thirteen and ten points respectively, while O’Neale chipped in with nine of his own off the bench, posting seven rebounds and three helpers to boot. However, the biggest surprise was the play of (journeyman Guard) Saben Lee, who scored a career-high sixteen points on 4-of-9 shooting (44.4%) in just over twenty-four minutes of action. The biggest difference between these sides was the disparity at the charity stripe, for if you thought it was lopsided in the first half, it only got worse in the second. When it was all said and done, Phoenix knocked down 36-of-44 free-throws, twenty-two more than Detroit, which helped compensate for twenty-three turnovers committed by the hosts. This has been an ongoing issue for Vogel & Co, who since parting ways with Paul have lacked a true floor general to set up and facilitate the offense, oftentimes relying upon Booker, Beal, and Durant, who while supremely talented are NOT natural playmakers, to run the show. This team ranks twenty-seventh in turnovers at 14.9 per game, giving the ball away on an unhealthy 13.4% of their offensive possessions (27th Overall). From a betting perspective, the Suns have floated above .500 of late after being one of the more underwhelming teams in the Association, covering the spread in seven of their last nine tilts. With that being said, they are just 5-7 this year as an underdog, which is the case tonight, while owning a 2-9-1 record over their last twelve games following a victory of 10+ points, which is also the case in this matchup. Looking at this particular encounter, the road team has taken each of the last four meetings, including 132-109 affair in Dallas back in late January. Phoenix shot an insane 60.0% from the field in that one, aided by a 43-20 showing in the third quarter, highlighted by FORTY-SIX points from Booker, who burned down the nylon on a ridiculous 17-of-23 shooting (73.9%), including 6-of-10 from downtown (60.0%). On the injury front, Beal is listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s trip to North Texas, as Vogel has branded the Guard as a game-time decision given the flexibility of that aforementioned hamstring. Looking ahead, the Suns will remain in the Lone Star State for a date with the Rockets, who they will get very acquainted with, facing them three times in the next ten days.
Meanwhile, one could argue that the Mavericks (32-23, 7th in Western Conference) are the very reason that their opponent opted to dramatically renovate their franchise. When these two clubs met in the 2022 Western Semis, it was Dallas that rallied back from an 0-2 deficit to upset top-seeded Phoenix, a series punctuated by stunning 33-point thrashing in the desert. That triumph vaulted the Mavs into their first Conference Final in over a decade, while also exponentially raising expectations for the franchise as they continued to build around the talents of (All-NBA Guard) Luka Doncic. However, (Had Coach) Jason Kidd’s troops were rather inconsistent last season, which prompted them to initiate their own blockbuster at the trade deadline, acquiring the services of Durant’s Brooklyn teammate, (All-Star Point Guard) Kyrie Irving. While many felt that that transaction would be enough to vault the Mavericks back into contention out West, it ended up having the opposite effect; Dallas proceeded to drop EIGHTEEN of their twenty-eight games following the trade, including all but two of their final eleven outings en route to missing the postseason altogether. With that being said, Kidd and (General Manager) Nico Harrison felt like there was more to be found in pairing together Doncic and Irving (pictured together below), signing the latter to a 3-year, $120 million contract in the offseason. So, how has that investment paid off, you ask? Well, the Mavs find themselves in the same place they did when Irving arrived last Winter, hovering around the play-in zone, which again led to more changes. Kidd and Harrison understood that needed to beef up the supporting cast, particularly a frontcourt that was limited in both size and depth. As such, the Mavericks shipped (veteran Forward) Grant Williams out of town after signing him in the summer in favor of bringing in (young Forward) P.J. Washington and (underrated Center) Daniel Gafford in separate deals with the Hornets and Wizards. At 25-years-old, Washington has plenty of room to grow after spending the first four-and-a-half years of his career in Charlotte, while Gafford was the lone shot-blocker and rebounder for arguably the worst defensive team in the NBA. These two should fit nicely around the talents of (emerging Rookie Center) Derek Lively, who has proven to be indispensable for Dallas, averaging 9.2 points on 73.6% shooting, 7.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.5 blocks. Winners of six consecutive games heading into the All-Star Break, it appears that these changes have been just want the doctor ordered, as Kidd & Co have averaged a whopping 122.2 points on 51.2% shooting from the field, including 38.4% from beyond the arc, while dishing out 28.0 assists in comparison to committing just 11.7 turnovers, all the while relegating their opponents to 41.4% shooting, including 31.2% from downtown. Furthermore, the Mavs have enjoyed a +18.0-point differential during this span, which bodes well for their chances of moving up the table out West.
When we last saw the Mavericks, they closed out the first half of the regular season with a convincing 116-93 drubbing of the young Spurs last Wednesday night. Despite trailing 25-32 at the end of the first quarter, the hosts put their collective foot on the gas the rest of the way, outscoring San Antonio 63-33 over the next two periods. When it was all said and done, Dallas shot an efficient 53.3% from the field, including 11-of-30 from beyond the arc (36.7%), while outrebounding the visiting side 55-44. Doncic and Irving were as advertised in this one, folks, combining for sixty-one points on 26-of-42 shooting (61.9%), along with eighteen rebounds, fifteen assists, four steals, and a pair of blocks. Getting the start in place of Lively, who just returned from injury, Gafford continued to make an impact around the rim, finishing with ten points and rebounds apiece, while his rookie teammate added eight points, five rebounds, and four blocks in just over seventeen minutes off the bench. Defensively, Kidd’s troops held their neighbors to the south to a mere 36.0% shooting, including 10-of-40 from three (25.0%). From a betting perspective, the Mavericks have also hovered over the .500 threshold, posting a 29-26 record against the spread thus far, which includes five covers in their last six outings. We spoke of their strong form of late, which extends to the betting sphere, where they are now 5-1 against the spread in their last six games after a win by 10+ points, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, Dallas has won three of the last five meetings between these teams, though only one of those victories has come at American Airlines Center, a 130-111 affair back on December 5th, 2022. They have split their two encounters thus far this season, including a 128-114 win in Phoenix on Christmas Day before suffering that aforementioned 109-132 loss at home a month later. Irving didn’t participate in either tilt, which makes his availability tonight an axis-swinging addition. In nineteen career games against the Suns, Irving has averaged 22.5 points on 46.2% shooting, including 39.3% from long-range, along with 3.8 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.6 steals. When he faced them as a member of the Mavericks last season, the 31-year-old poured in thirty points, four rebounds, and seven assists in a126-130 loss in North Texas. On the injury front, both (young Point Guard) Dante Exum and (veteran Forward) Maxi Kleber are listed as questionable to finally return after lengthy absences, with the former missing nineteen of the last twenty-one games with an ailing knee, while the latter is far more opportunistic to bounce back after missing the win over the Spurs with nose and toe maladies. Looking ahead, the Mavs will hit the road for a 4-game road trip taking them to Indiana, Toronto, Cleveland, and Boston, which should serve as a good litmus test as they battle some of the East’s better sides.