10:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Timberwolves -4.5, Over/Under: 226.0
On the surface what appears as if it could be a potential NBA Finals preview is on tap tonight in Minneapolis, though a deeper dive would reveal two teams heading in very different directions, as the Minnesota Timberwolves look to remain atop the Western Conference, while the struggling Milwaukee Bucks try to get on the same page after a major coaching change. Indeed, looking at the Bucks (35-21, 3rd in Eastern Conference) would leave most of us with the opinion that they are where they want to be within the top-three seeds in the East. Unfortunately, that couldn’t be further from the truth, for make no mistake about it, folks, this is a team in serious flux. After parting ways with (longtime Head Coach) Mike Budenholzer following a disappointing ousting to eighth-seeded Miami in the first round of last Spring’s playoffs, Milwaukee opted to hire Adrian Griffin in an attempt to shake things up. Furthermore, they triggered the major blockbuster of the summer, trading for (perennial All-Star Point Guard) Damian Lillard in a multi-team deal. The train of thought here was that Lillard would bring the kind of perimeter firepower that the deer had been lacking in support of (two-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo, while Griffin’s radically different ideals on the defensive end would better suit this team the next time they advanced to the postseason. Unfortunately, Griffin proved to be a very poor fit with his players, who openly protested his defensive stratagems, leaving (General Manager) Jon Horst to fire the former swingman forty-three games into the job. Eventually, the Bucks lured Doc Rivers away from the broadcasting table to take of the team, though this abrupt transition has been anything but smooth. Sure, Rivers is 1,100-770 (.588) all-time as a Head Coach with an NBA Title to his credit, Antetokounmpo is a generational talent that has claimed two MVP trophies along with Finals MVP honors and a Larry O’Brien of his own, while Lillard is a 7-time All-NBA selection, but that doesn’t mean that these guys are going to get on from the word go. Simply put, it has been a grueling process since the coaching change, with Rivers desperately trying to instill his ideas and tactics within a team that he didn’t build in a very truncated period of time. In ten games in charge, the 62-year-old has overseen a 3-7 mess, thanks in large part to a defense that has struggled to slow anyone down. During this stretch, Milwaukee have shipped an average of 113.0 points on 48.3% shooting from the field, including 38.4% from beyond the arc, along with 26.4 assists in comparison to forcing 13.3 turnovers, all the while getting outrebounded by a margin of 4.3 boards, which would have been unheard of during the Budenholzer era. Then again, the acquisition of Lillard dramatically altered the chemistry of the backcourt, with Jrue Holiday, who has long been one of the finest defenders at the point of attack, among the outgoing party in the deal, which has left this position group small and decisively less defensive. It is very telling that the club opted to bring (veteran Point Guard) Patrick Beverly at the trade deadline to invigorate the backcourt, though at 35-years-old, it is unlikely that the 3-time All-Defense selection will turn that part of the operation around on his own. Furthermore, the marriage between Giannis and Dame (pictured together below) has yet to net the desired results, with the former reluctant to enter into a relentless pick-and-roll approach with the latter, even if it would appear that they would be tailormade to do so.
When we last saw the Bucks, they turned in what was arguably their most disappointing performance of the campaign, a 110-113 loss at the decimated Grizzlies, who were without eight different players including FIVE would-be starters. In the words of Rivers, “some of these guys were already in Cabo”, Milwaukee failed to take Memphis seriously and paid for it, allowing the hosts to shoot a stellar 53.0% from the field, including 13-of-26 from beyond the arc (50.0%), with thirty assists opposed to committing sixteen turnovers. Conversely, the visitors shot 46.2% themselves, but struggled from downtown on 11-of-44 shooting (25.0%). Antetokounmpo got his, totaling thirty-five points on a ridiculous 15-of-17 shooting (88.2%), along with four rebounds and twelve assists, while Lillard was less-so, scoring twenty-four points but netting a dismal 7-of-21 shots overall (33.3%), including a mere 3-of-13 from downtown, and nearly as many turnovers (4) as assists (5). (Veteran Center) Brook Lopez added fourteen points, eleven rebounds, and four blocks, while (Sixth Man) Bobby Portis chipped in with fifteen points off the bench, but that simply wasn’t enough to overcome a team that many of us would be hard-pressed to name more than a single player. Needless to say, this has been a fairly poor run of form from Lillard, who over the last sixteen games has shot just 40.6% from the floor and 30.4% from three, further underlining the poor fit that this has been for him in Milwaukee. From a betting perspective, the Bucks have been one of, if not the most disappointing, teams in the Association thus far, posting a dreadful 21-35 record against the spread, with just SIX covers in their last twenty-four outings. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams have split their last three meetings, though Milwaukee suffered a brutal 125-109 defeat in their previous encounter two weeks ago. With Lillard out of action nursing a sore knee, Rivers’ troops lacked the necessary firepower to trade blows with Minnesota, who shot a blistering 55.2% from the field, including 21-of-41 from three (51.2%), where they outscored the hosts by twenty-one points. Granted, Giannis & Co shot nearly 50.0% themselves, but the Wolves held key advantages in fastbreak points (+5), points off turnovers (+5), and points in the paint (+8), proving too much for the deer to handle. Antetokounmpo finished with just seventeen points, three rebounds, and seven assists in less than thirty minutes of action, with (veteran Swingman) Jae Crowder and (Sophomore Guard) A.J. Green accounting for twenty-one and twenty-seven points respectively. That performance marked a career-high for the latter, who in the four games since hasn’t even combined to reach that scoring outburst. On the injury front, all eyes will be upon (veteran Swingman) Khris Middleton, who missed that tilt with Minnesota along with each of the last four games heading into the break due to a left ankle sprain. The 3-time All-Star is one of the most indispensable players on the roster, providing a tertiary scoring threat with the ability to initiate the offense and stretch the floor, while his length and mobility makes him an ideal defender on opposing wings. Looking ahead, the Bucks will hit the road for seven of their nine games post-break, traveling to Philadelphia on Sunday before returning home for a home-and-home venture with the lowly Hornets.
Meanwhile, it has been a very different story for the Timberwolves (39-16, 1st in Western Conference), who at this point of the campaign sit atop the extremely competitive Western Conference on the strength of a 1.5-game lead over the young Thunder. After suffering back-to-back exits in the first round of the playoffs, Minnesota looks to have finally matured to the point where they have become a legitimate force, though you would forgive those of us that remain speculative of their chances of putting together a lengthy postseason run. With that being said, for those of us that prescribe to the old adage that defense wins championships, these Wolves should bring a smile to your face. Simply put, this is the best defensive team in the Association, ranking first in points allowed (106.7), field goal percentage allowed (44.6%), and two-point percentage allowed (50.2%), while yielding just 35.2% from beyond the arc (6th Overall), and posting a defensive rebounding percentage of 77.4% (3rd Overall). After one look at this group and their size and length stands out from the rest, with (Head Coach) Chris Finch having an embarrassment of riches in that department. In an era that has prioritized shooting and ballhandling at the expense of traditional size and mass, the Timberwolves are an outlier that effectively plays with two seven-footers, due in large part to the vastly different skillsets. Anchoring the defense is (3-time Defensive Player of the Year) Rudy Gobert, who is the premier rim deterrent in the NBA, contesting a wealth of shots and altering countless more on a nightly basis. Alongside the Frenchman is Karl-Anthony Towns, whose lethal shooting (43.7% 3FG), makes him the ideal counterweight to his defensive-minded teammate. Bringing it altogether is (fourth-year Swingman) Anthony Edwards, who has really developed into one of the most dynamic talents that the league has seen in a while; the former number one overall pick has posted career-highs in a number of categories, including points (26.3), field goal percentage (47.1%), three-point percentage (38.6%), free-throws (5.5), and assists (5.3), while exhibiting a tenacity on the defensive end to lock up similar talents. Over the last six games heading into the break, Edwards (pictured below) has been on fire, averaging 32.3 points on 50.7% shooting and 38.9% from downtown, along with 6.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.5 steals. His development can be attributed to playing alongside (veteran Point Guard) Mike Conley, who has long been one of the steadiest and efficient players at his position, imparting on his young teammate the importance of taking care of the basketball and taking higher percentage shots, as opposed to the chaotic approach that characterized his first few seasons in the league.
When we last saw the Timberwolves, they swept a two-day stay in Portland against the lowly Trail Blazers, winning the two games by a combined FORTY-NINE points. Last Thursday’s 128-91 drubbing at Moda Center saw Minnesota pick up where they left off two nights before, burning the Blazers 44-14 in the first quarter. The visitors shot a sweltering 17-of-25 from the field (68.0%) in the period, with Edwards erupting for thirteen points on 5-of-8 shooting (62.5%) and three assists. Needless to say, their heads were NOT in Cabo, for that would be more than enough to carry Finch’s troops to a fifth consecutive victory, as seven different players scored in double-figures, led by Edwards with thirty-four points on 12-of-21 shooting (57.1%), six rebounds, seven assists, two steals, and a block. Towns chipped in with twenty-three points of his own along with eight boards and two blocks, while Gobert totaled eleven points, twelve rebounds, and a pair of swats. The Wolves relegated Portland to 37.3% shooting, including 8-of-26 from three (27.6%), outrebounded them 52-35, and forced them into nearly as many turnovers (15) as they managed assists (18). From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves have been solid thus far in posting a 29-25-1 record against the spread, with FOURTEEN covers in their last twenty-one outings. Looking at this particular matchup, Minnesota got the better of Milwaukee in their previous meeting back on February 8th, in which the shorthanded Bucks ran into a proverbial buzzsaw in the form of Edwards & Co. Indeed, that 129-105 affair was as one-sided as you could imagine, with the visitors shooting 55.2% from the field and 51.2% from three. Edwards, Towns, and Conley each hit 4+ triples on that night, combining for 14-of-24 shooting between them (58.3%), with Edwards scoring twenty-six points and dishing out nine assists, while Conley added eighteen pints and as many dimes. Looking ahead, the Wolves begin a 7-game homestand which should see them build upon their lead at the top of the West, as they host the Nets, Spurs, and Grizzlies before facing the Kings and Clippers, before embarking on a 6-game road trip.