8:00 PM EST, NBA TV – Line: Bucks -5.0, Over/Under: 224.5
A potential NBA Finals preview with enough star power to make Hollywood blush is on tap tonight from Fiserv Forum, as the surging Milwaukee Bucks play host to the Los Angeles Clippers. With so much of the discourse revolving around the Clippers (39-20, 4th in Western Conference) centering upon their future, it is easy to forget what they are doing in the present, as they appear to have prolonged their window of championship contention. Sure, next season will see Los Angeles effectively rebrand themselves once again as they move into their new home, the state-of-the-art $2 billion Intuit Arena, located in Inglewood. Simply put, for a franchise that has been desperate to escape the Lakers’ shadow, making the move was necessary. Then again, so was making sure that they were still a competitive team upon making said transition, which brings us to the acquisition of (10-time All-Star) James Harden. On his fourth team in as many seasons, Harden (pictured below alongside his teammates) was desperate to land one final massive payday, which ironically returned him to his home state of California. While he has frustrated his numerous former employers with incessant trade demands, the 3-time scoring champion as provided a serious boost to every team that he has been traded to, with his playmaking acumen proving to be a boon to (Head Coach) Ty Lue’s troops, who had become stagnant in recent years on the offensive end of the hardwood. Just when it felt as if the tandem of (All-Star Wings) Kawhi Leonard and Paul George had run its course, the infusion of Harden has not just alleviated them of their scoring responsibilities, but makes it much easier for them as the facilitator of the attack. The Clippers had a glaring hole at Point Guard last season, which the 34-year-old has been a perfect fit in filling; remember, while we association so much of Harden’s game with his scoring prowess, this is a guy who has also led the Association in assists on two occasions, including last season. Conversely, the likes of Leonard and George, two of the finest defensive swingmen in the game, are able to cover for his shortcomings on that end of the court, making this marriage mutually beneficial for all sides. Since December, Los Angeles has posted the best record in the league at 31-10, thanks in large part to an offense that is averaging 119.3 points per game on a healthy 50.2% shooting from the field, including 39.9% from beyond the arc, while dishing out 26.4 assists in comparison to committing just 11.9 turnovers. Thriving in this playmaking role, Harden has averaged just 17.4 points (his lowest since 2011-2012) on 44.3% shooting, though has knocked down an efficient 40.9% of his treys, while adding 5.1 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 1.1 steals. Furthermore, when he, Leonard, and George share the floor together, the Clips are +10.6 points (per 100 possessions), +4.1% shooting from the field, +4.6% shooting from three, and +4.0 from the charity stripe.
When we last saw the Clippers, they survived a grueling 89-88 duel with the West-leading Timberwolves last night, which should provide us with some serious insight if and when these teams cross paths again in the postseason. After the hosts tied the game at 84-84 with 2:16 left in regulation, the aforementioned Leonard retook the lead on an and-one with just over two minutes to go. Minnesota cut the lead to one point on the ensuing possession, as both sides would trade misses from long range. With thirteen seconds left, Leonard was sent to the charity stripe once again, knocking down two more free-throws to reestablish their 3-point advantage. Unable to get a clear look from the perimeter, the Wolves settled for a dunk with three seconds left on the clock, while the game ended upon Los Angeles’ inbound. This one was straight out of the 90s, folks, as both teams shot well below 40% from the field in a physical defensive affair. Lue’s troops shot just 37.6% overall, including 10-of-34 from beyond the arc (29.4%), dishing out just seventeen assists along the way. However, they did manage to contain their opponent to 38.8% shooting, including a dismal 9-of-33 (27.3%), forcing fifteen turnovers to boot, which was a key to the game to the contest as LA managed to parlay those mistakes into 20 points (+7), which also played a sizable role in their 19-0 advantage in fastbreak points. Leonard was fantastic with a game-high thirty-two points on 12-of-26 shooting (46.2%), along with 7-of-8 from the free-throw line, five rebounds, two steals, and a block. On a night in which George struggled with fifteen points on a mere 5-of-16 shooting (31.3%), and Harden could muster only four points on 0-of-10 shooting (0.0%), (super-sub) Norman Powell once again made an impact off the bench with twenty-four points on 9-of-13 shooting (69.2%), netting SIX of his team’s ten triples. From a betting perspective, the Clippers are 31-28 against the spread this season, having won and covered each of their last two outings after failing to cover seven of their previous eight contests, which could be a sign of the oddsmakers finally adjusting to their form with Harden. Looking at tonight’s matchup, this is the first meeting between these teams this season, with Milwaukee having taken each of the previous two encounters from the 2022-2023 campaign (1-1 ATS). On the injury front, load management is always something to keep in mind on the second night of a back-to-back (particularly with the Clippers), though the only absentee appears to be (veteran Point Guard) Russell Westbrook, who will miss an indefinite amount of time with a fractured left hand. Looking ahead, Los Angeles will close out this brief road trip on Wednesday in Houston, before hosting Chicago and these same Bucks next week at crypto.com Arena.
Meanwhile, could it be that the Bucks (40-21, 2nd in Eastern Conference) have finally found their footing after the arrival of (Head Coach) Doc Rivers? Easily one of the biggest surprises of the season thus far was how quickly Milwaukee pulled the proverbial ripcord on (former HC) Adrian Griffin, who lasted just forty-three games into his tenure with the deer before being shown the door by management. Despite a plausible 31-10 record, something just didn’t smell right under his watch, and we’re not referring to the cheese in Wisconsin. Dissatisfaction from the players, particularly (two-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo and the newly-acquired Damian Lillard (pictured together below) led to his ousting, with (General Manager) Jon Horst eventually luring Rivers out of his role at ESPN to take over a team three years removed from hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Make no mistake about it, diving into this situation at the midway point of the campaign has NOT been an easy job for the 62-year-old, who has had very little time to implement his vision, strategies, and tactics upon a roster that he had ZERO hand in putting together. As such, the Bucks lost seven of their first ten games under his watch, due in large part to a defense that was unrecognizable to what we’ve grown accustomed seeing from Milwaukee, shipping an untenable 113.0 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field, including 38.4% from beyond the arc, with 26.4 assists opposed to forcing 13.3 turnovers, all the while being outrebounded by a margin of 4.3 boards. This all came to a head with a 110-113 loss at Grizzlies just before the All-Star Break in which Memphis was without SEVEN players from their rotation, prompting Rivers to state in the post-game press conference that the many of his troops were “already in Cabo”. Needless to say, the All-Star Break couldn’t have come at a better time for this group, who appear to have utilized that week off to not only recharge their batteries, but work on getting to know their new coach in practice. Well, we’d love to see what Rivers can do with a full offseason with this group, for since the Break they have won FIVE straight outings, including a 112-107 victory at the Timberwolves. During this stretch, the most notable difference has been that of the defense, which has evolved back into a stifling force. Milwaukee has yielded just 97.2 points on 40.8% shooting, including 33.7% from downtown, while permitting 24.0 assists and forcing 12.2 turnovers. Furthermore, they’ve turned the tables on the glass, outrebounding the opposition by 4.4 boards a night. Rivers has long been a defensive-minded coach, making it unsurprising that he has been able to plug the holes on that end of the court. It will be interesting to see how approaches tonight’s visit from the Clippers, which is a personal affair on numerous levels. First and foremost, he spent seven seasons in Los Angeles where he earned a stellar 564-356 record (.631), leading them to six playoff appearance, though most will remember the many collapses he and his troops suffered. Second, this tilt represents a reunion with the aforementioned Harden, who he coached last season in Philadelphia. The bearded one hasn’t been shy about his issues with Rivers during their time together (particularly during two ill-fated postseason runs), playing a major role in his decision to demand a trade in the offseason. Then again, when you’ve been coaching as long as Doc, you’re bound to run into such situations…
When we last saw the Bucks, they hammered the Bulls in a 113-97 victory on Friday night, running their win streak to five since the All-Star Break. While it was far from the cleanest of performances, Milwaukee dominated this affair despite shooting what would appear to be an inauspicious 43.0% from the field. The visitors held sizable advantages from the beyond the arc (15-of-46) and at the charity stripe (24-of-32), which amounted to a 22-point advantage over the hosts. Rivers’ troops also made Chicago pay for their mistakes, turning twelve turnovers into as many points, which equated to an 8-point advantage as well. As he has so often int eh past, Antetokounmpo utterly manhandled the Bulls, totaling FORTY-SIX points on 16-of-22 shooting (72.7%) and 12-of-16 from the free-throw line (75.0%), sixteen rebounds, and six assists. To put things into proper perspective the two-time MVP attempted just as many free-throws as Chicago did as a team. Conversely, it was from a strong performance from Lillard, who finished with sixteen points on a dreadful 4-of-18 shooting (22.2%), though the bench came to the rescue in the form of Bobby Portis and Pat Beverley, who combined for twenty-five points, thirteen rebounds, three assists, two steals, and a pair of blocks. Beverley, who arrived at the Trade Deadline after playing for Rivers in Philadelphia, really gave them a shot in the arm on the offensive end, with the longtime defensive dynamo scoring all fourteen of his points in the fourth quarter. From a betting perspective, the Bucks have been one of the worst teams in the Association when it comes to covering the spread, owning a 26-35 record in that regard, which equates to a 15-game difference between straight-up wins and covers, which again is the largest in the NBA. With that being said, they have covered each of their five wins since the Break, matching their longest streak of the season. On the injury front, (All-Star Swingman) Khris Middleton, who has been plagued by various ailments over the last two seasons, will miss yet another game due to a sprained left ankle suffered two weeks ago, though the larger situation is that of Antetokounmpo, who listed as questionable due to tendinitis in his left Achilles. After having two full days off, the feeling is that Giannis will participate in this one, though if you ask anyone in Chicago, they are likely to tell you that he is just fine. Looking ahead, Milwaukee will hit the road for a tough 4-game road trip beginning Wednesday which will test just how much they have improved under Rivers, as they face the Warriors, Lakers, Clippers, and Kings in the space of a week.