10:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Nuggets -8.5, Over/Under: 224.5
A rematch of the Western Conference Semifinals is on tap tonight from Mile High, as the surging (reigning NBA Champion) Denver Nuggets play host to the Phoenix Suns, who continue to search for consistency, which has been an elusive commodity to say the least. Since coming oh so close to hoisting their first Larry O’Brien Trophy in franchise history, the Suns (35-26, 6th in Western Conference) have completely remade themselves in the span of a year, all in an attempt to return to the Association’s summit with designs on finishing. Indeed, (2021-2022 Coach of the Year) Monty Williams, (future Hall of Fame Point Guard) Chris Paul, and (former number one overall pick) DeAndre Ayton have all been sent packing from the desert, with the likes of (two-time Finals MVP) Kevin Durant, (All-Star Guard) Bradley Beal, and (2019-2020 NBA Champion HC) Frank Vogel replacing them. With Durant and Beal buoying (All-Star Guard) Devin Booker, Phoenix successfully assembled the league’s latest big three, while Vogel, who led the Lakers to championship glory during the chaotic bubble, was hired to make sense of it all. So, with just over sixty games in the books, what do we make of this team, you ask? Are they the championship contender that they were built to be? Well, to keep in simple and straightforward, the answer to that question is no. First and foremost, the triumvirate of Durant, Booker, and Beal (pictured together below) has yet to develop the requisite chemistry to make this unit greater than total sum of their parts, with injuries playing a major role in the matter. Out of sixty-one games, they have shared the hardwood together on just twenty-three occasions (14-9), which equates to just over a third of the campaign. To put this into perspective, Durant, Booker, and Beal are only the twelfth-most utilized three-man combination that Vogel has fielded this season, despite being effective all the same with a healthy +9.7 points per 100 possessions. Durant has missed seven games thus far, while Booker has been sidelined for eleven, with Beal, the newest addition and proverbial third wheel, absent for twenty-nine contests. The other issue here is that when you build a team around three stars such as these, you eschew the opportunity to build depth and address other areas, which only become more glaring when one or more of said stars are out of action. With three guys eating up that much of the salary cap, (General Manager) James Jones has done a solid job of adding ancillary pieces such as Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen, Eric Gordon, and Royce O’Neal to round out a supporting cast, but with that being said, this team still lacks connective tissue on the offensive end of the court, which really boils down to the lack of playing time between Durant, Booker, and Beal. Phoenix really lacks a pure Point Guard, which is ironic given they shipped Paul out of town, evidenced by their 15.0 turnovers per game (27th Overall) and 13.4% turnover rate (27th Overall). Sure, Durant, Booker, and Beal can facilitate the attack and make plays for their teammates, but at their core, these guys are coldblooded scorers, which explains why the Suns fall into an isolation-heavy approach more often than Vogel would prefer. Losers of four of six games since the All-Star Break, they have averaged 112.5 points on 44.2% shooting, including 35.4% from beyond the arc, committing 15.3 turnovers in comparison to dishing out 24.0 assists, which really taxed their transition defense.
When we last saw the Suns, their inability to take care of the basketball was the root of the struggles in a 110-118 loss at home to the Thunder, who made them pay over and over again in that regard. Phoenix committed TWENTY-TWO turnovers in comparison to six for Oklahoma City, which equated to a lopsided 31-9 differential in points from. With the bulk of those turnovers coming between the second and third quarters, the hosts trailed by as many as twenty-four points, before eventually snapping out of their malaise with a stunning 30-5 run, which saw them retake the lead late in the fourth period. Unfortunately, such an onslaught caused them to run out of gas, as the visitors closed the game out on an 18-6 run. When it was all said and done, Vogel’s troops shot 44.0% from the field, including 14-of-39 from beyond the arc (35.9%), and 16-of-18 from the charity stripe (88.9%), while getting back into the game largely due to their prowess on the glass, where they held a 50-41 advantage, including a 15-10 edge on the offensive board. This is where Nurkic earned his paycheck, amassing an insane THIRTY-ONE rebounds, thirteen of which being of the offensive variety, gifting his teammates a plethora of second-chance opportunities. Durant and Beal finished with twenty and thirty-one points respectively, with the latter netting 10-of-14 shots (71.4%), along with four rebounds and six assists. However, he was also responsible for SEVEN turnovers, which underlines their need for a legitimate Point Guard. From a betting perspective, the Suns have been a difficult team to get a handle on, posting a disappointing 24-36-1 record against the spread, which equates to an 11-game differential between their ledger straight-up. Again, this is likely due to their lack of chemistry, with the oddsmakers unable to properly assess them from game to game. Furthermore, Phoenix has failed to cover five of their six games since the Break. Looking at tonight’s matchup, after being eliminated in six games last May, Durant & Co fell victim to a 111-119 defeat back in early December, which saw both Booker and Beal sidelined due to injury. The five-time scoring champion totaled thirty points but otherwise struggled on 8-of-25 shooting (32.0%), with the bulk of his production coming from the stripe, knocking down all thirteen of his free-throws. On the injury front, Nurkic is dealing with a tightness in his calf, which leaves him questionable to face his former employers, while Booker isn’t expected to return for another week thanks to a sprained right ankle. Looking ahead, the Suns will return home for a brief homestand with the Raptors and the Celtics before embarking on a stretch in which nine of eleven games will be away from the desert.
Meanwhile, as we reach the stretch run of the campaign, the Nuggets (42-19, 3rd in Western Conference) have rounded back into form as one of the true favorites to emerge from the always competitive Western Conference. After winning the first Larry O’Brien Trophy in franchise history last June, Denver entered this season with a very strong case to repeat as champions, reveling in their identity as a self-made juggernaut. Indeed, in an era in which free agency and blockbuster trades routinely shift the balance of power across the league, this is a team that was largely constructed the old-fashioned way: drafting and developing. Of the ten players that have logged the most minutes within (Head Coach) Mike Malone’s rotation, six of them were drafted by the club and all of them are under the age of thirty to boot, with nary a top-five pick among their number. If there has ever been a case of hitting a long shot in the draft, (two-time MVP) Nikola Jokic is the gold standard; the towering Serbian international was forty-first pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, arriving stateside woefully out of shape, though has cultivated himself into arguably the most dominant force in the Association. Operating as a Point-Center, Jokic (pictured below) is easily one of the most unique talents that the league has ever seen, averaging 25.9 points on 58.1% shooting, 12.2 rebounds, 9.2 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.9 bocks, all the while logging nineteen triple-doubles. This season will likely see him average at least nine assists for the second consecutive season, which is remarkable for a player of his stature. Malone has surrounded him with a bevy of shooters and athletes for him to set up, including another pair of homegrown products, (Shooting Guard) Jamal Murray and (Swingman) Michael Porter Jr. Murray’s return to health from a torn ACL that claimed nearly two years of his career was a major component in their run to the O’Brien, while Porter’s steady growth on both ends of the floor have further fleshed out the attack. Winners of six in a row since the All-Star Break, the Nuggets have really put their foot on the proverbial gas pedal of late, averaging 120.0 points on a staggering 53.2% shooting from the field, including 36.1% from beyond the arc, while dishing out a healthy 33.2 assists in comparison to committing just 13.0 turnovers, while relegating the opposition to a mere 105.3 points on 43.6% shooting. Those are margins of +14.7 in points and +9.6% in field goal percentage, which spells dominance in no uncertain terms. Given the relative inexperience of their competition at the top of the West, there is a sense that Denver is turning up at the right time, understanding that carrying momentum into the postseason is paramount to achieving postseason success.
When we last saw the Nuggets, they once again defeated the Lakers, running their streak to eight wins in a row over LeBron & Co on the strength of this 124-114 affair. Believe it or not, Denver trailed for most of this game, though managed to turn the tide midway through the third period before running away with it in the fourth. Trailing 58-66 at halftime, Malone’s troops outscored Los Angeles 66-48 over the final twenty-four minutes of action, shooting a blistering 63.6% from the field, including 6-of-12 from downtown (50.0%), with nineteen assists opposed to a scant three turnovers, all the while battering the hosts on the glass (22-13). Four different players scored 10+ points after intermission, led by none other than Jokic, who logged nineteen of his thirty-five points in those two periods. The Serbian finished 16-of-25 from the field (64.0%), while adding ten rebounds, seven assists, and a block, with only two of his points coming from the charity stripe. He wasn’t alone though, as Murray and Porter added twenty-four and twenty-five points respectively, with the latter putting together a perfect stat line of 10-of-10 shooting, including 5-of-5 from three, and ten rebounds. Furthermore, (veteran Forward) Aaron Gordon, one of the few imports within Malone’s rotation, did more than just the dirty work, scoring eighteen points on 8-of-16 shooting (50.0%), with nine rebounds (five offensive) and five assists. From a betting perspective, the Nuggets are 27-32-2 against the spread thus far, though have been stellar in this regard since the Break, covering five of their last six games. Looking at tonight’s matchup, Denver dispatched Phoenix with relative ease despite their semifinal clash lasting six games, with all four of their victories coming by 10+ points. When they met back in early December, both teams were shorthanded as the reigning champs were without Murray and the Suns were sans both Booker and Beal, which ended up playing out as everyone expected with a relatively comfortable 119-111 victory. Even without Murray, six different players scored in double-figures for the visitors, with Jokic operating as chief facilitator with SIXTEEN assists to go with his team-high twenty-one points, as Porter scored nineteen points, while (veteran Swingman) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope adding twenty of his own. On the injury front, KCP missed that return to Los Angeles, where he helped the Lakers to win the NBA Title, due to personal reasons, and is thus listed as probable to get back on the court tonight. Looking ahead, tonight’s visit from the Suns marks the beginning of a four-game homestand for the Nuggets, with a seismic rematch against the Celtics looming on Thursday; Denver stunned Boston in a 102-100 victory in Beantown back in mid-January, an affair that many have pointed to being a serious Finals preview.