7:39 PM EST, TBS – Line: UConn -10.5, Over/Under: 135.5
After an entertaining opening weekend for the 2024 NCCA Tournament, the wheat has begun to separate itself from the chaff, though our eyes will be fixated on a rematch of last year’s National Championship, as the fifth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs are out for revenge against the top-seeded and reigning champion UConn Huskies in this Sweet Sixteen showdown from TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. Make no mistake about, San Diego State (26-10, 11-7 in MWC) will attempt to do everything within their power to avoid seeing their season come to an end against Connecticut for a second consecutive year. After reaching the National Final for the first time in school history twelve months ago, the Aztecs have taken a more perilous path to reach this point despite once again entering the big dance as a five seed. Whereas last season (Head Coach) Brian Dutcher’s troops swept through the Mountain West as champion of both their regular season and conference tournament, this current incarnation did neither, finishing fifth in league play before falling to New Mexico in the MWC Title Game (61-68). With that being said, there was a sense that SDSU would be one of the teams to look out for in this larger tourney, due in part because of their wealth of experience on this stage. Dutcher can count FOUR seniors within his starting lineup that featured in that fateful encounter with UConn last April, including the likes of (Guards) Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammel alongside (physical Forward) Jaedon LeDee. All three of these players identify as two-way dynamos, chief among them being LeDee (pictured below), whose chiseled 6’9″, 240-pound frame has helped propel the Aztecs to their fourth NCAA Tournament in as any years. Simply put, as he goes, so does San Diego State; the senior is the only player on the roster to score in double-figures, leading the way with 21.5 points per game on an efficient 56.4% shooting, including 8.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.5 blocks. his THIRTY-TWO points on 11-of-18 shooting was the key to avoiding upset at the hands of (12 seed) UAB in the first round, while his twenty-six points and nine rebounds led the attack in an 85-57 romp over (13 seed) Yale in Sunday’s second round matchup. Furthermore, the Houston native is on quite a run over the last six games, averaging 26.7 points on 59.8% shooting, 8.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.0 steal since the regular season finale against Boise State. However, he and his teammates will be met with a considerable step up in class when they face Connecticut tonight, which they should remember from last year’s 59-76 defeat. SDSU struggled mightily against the Huskies’ size and length, shooting a mere 32.2% from the field, including just 13-of-36 from within the arc (36.1%) and 6-of-23 beyond it (26.1%), committing more turnovers (12) than assists (7). LeDee, who played eighteen minutes off the bench, finished with seven points on 3-of-6 shooting (50.0%), four rebounds, and an assist.
When we last saw San Diego State, their second outing of this big dance went far smoother than the first, as they eliminated Yale with relative ease, an 85-57 blowout that should remind us all that we were fools to consider them being on upset watch since the opening round. This one was never close, folks, as the Aztecs raced out to an early lead before entering halftime with a commanding 45-21 advantage. When it was all said and done, the MWC representatives shot 52.7% from the field, including 13-of-27 from downtown (48.1%) where they outscored the Bulldogs by eighteen points, while relegating their opposition to 37.0% shooting and winning the battle of the boards 37-22. As we covered earlier, LeDee continued his dominance in the paint, though he was far from alone in this victory, with Trammel catching fire from the perimeter (4-of-7 3FG) en route to eighteen points, five rebounds, four assists, and three steals. From a betting perspective, Dutcher’s outfit wasn’t nearly as profitable against the spread as they were in regard to the money line, posting a 14-20 mark ATS, with only two covers over their last eight outings overall. Interestingly, this will mark only their ninth game of the campaign as an underdog, which has NOT been a rewarding position for them to be in, as the Aztecs are 0-4-1 against the spread in their last five games when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they are just 1-4 versus the spread in their past five contests when following an ATS victory, which is the case tonight. If SDSU manages to pull the titanic upset over UConn, then they will be off to their second Elite Eight appearance in school history, where one of (3 seed) Illinois and (2 seed) Iowa State await in the East Regional Final. For those wondering, they have crossed paths with the Illini just once, while splitting four meetings with the Cyclones.
Meanwhile, we haven’t seen a repeat national champion in nearly two decades (Florida in 2007), but we could very well do so within the next few weeks as UConn (33-3, 18-2 in Big East) appear be on their way to at the very least returning to the Final Four. After earning their fifth National Championship in school history and third since 2011, the Huskies enter this latest big dance as the primary favorite to cut the nets down once again. Now in his sixth campaign in Storrs, (Head Coach) Dan Hurley has rebuilt Connecticut into the juggernaut that it has been during stretches of the last thirty years despite inheriting a program that was buried under the ashes of NCAA penalties brought on by the previous regime. Indeed, these dogs authored one of the more impressive tourney performances in recent memory, winning all six of their games by no fewer than fifteen points, including their triumphant 76-59 thumping of San Diego State in the National Final. Granted, they may have shot just 43.4% from the field on that night, but their aggressiveness and physicality tilted the affair in their favor, as they mauled the Aztecs on the glass (40-33), limited to just SEVEN assists, and took residence at the charity stripe where they knocked down 24-of-27 free-throws, parlaying to +9 advantage on that front. (Senior Guard) Tristen Newton led the team with nineteen points on 5-of-11 shooting (45.5%) and a perfect 8-of-8 from the line (100.0%), along with ten rebounds, four assists, and a pair of steals. One of two returning starters for UConn, Newton (pictured below) has transitioned to becoming the team’s premier offensive weapon rather nicely, averaging 15.3 points on 42.0% shooting, 6.8 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.0 steal. Credit to Hurley for doing a tremendous job of developing this next generation of around him, with many growing into larger roles within the rotation after coming off the bench a year ago. That includes (fellow Senior) Cam Spencer and the towering Donovan Clingan, with the former providing Newton with the ideal backcourt compliment, while the latter’s 7’2″, 265-pound frame has ensured that Connecticut will continue to enjoy a size advantage against most opponents. Seriously, folks, this is one of the biggest teams in the country, with only one player within the rotation checking in at shorter than 6’4″. With this in their arsenal, the Huskies have managed to outrebound the opposition by 8.4 boards per game, shoot 59.2% from within the arc and limit opponents to 43.5% shooting in that same range, with both figures ranking in the top-six nationally in their respective categories. Furthermore, they have racked up 5.4 blocks per contest (11th Overall), while all but nullifying the ball movement of their adversaries at 10.2 assists, which is a direct result of their length at the rim and on the perimeter as their Guards can play defend more aggressively with Clingan & Co at their back. This narrative has continued with their first two games of the NCAA Tournament, where they have eliminated (16 seed) Stetson and (9 seed) Northwestern by a combined FIFTY-SIX points. Hurley’s troops shot an effortless 53.2% overall, while relegating the Hatters and Wildcats to 34.2% shooting, with stark contrasts in rebounds (+10.0), assists (+14.0), and turnovers (+4.0).
When we last saw UConn, they cruised to a 75-58 victory over Northwestern in the second round of tourney last weekend, marking their eighth consecutive win in this competition by fifteen or more points. This one was over from the opening tip, folks, as the Huskies outscored the Wildcats 40-18 (!!!) in the first half, affording the Big East Champions the luxury of putting it in cruise control for the second half. When it was all said and done, the offensive efficiency was startling from Hurley’s outfit, who shot 53.7% overall, assisting on twenty of their twenty-nine field goals, with the vast majority of their production coming within the arc, where they netted 26-of-32 attempts (81.3%). Simply put, it isn’t very often that a team manages to win so easily in this tournament despite missing eighteen triples. Newton continued to play his leading role with twenty points on 7-of-13 shooting (53.8%), three rebounds, ten assists, and a pair of steals, while Clingan dominated in the painted area with fourteen points and rebounds apiece, along with a resounding EIGHT blocks. With that in mind, you can understand how the Big Ten denizens struggled on the offensive end, shooting 37.3% from the floor, including 18-of-44 from within the arc (40.9%) and 4-of-15 beyond it (26.7%), while logging as many assists (10) as turnovers. From a betting perspective, UConn has been almost as rewarding against the spread as they have been straight-up, posting a stellar 23-12-1 record ATS, including FOURTEEN covers in their last nineteen games. This is a team that has covered EIGHT straight NCAA Tournament affairs, including four in a row when favored by at least 7.5 points, which is once again the case tonight. Looking ahead, if Connecticut handles their business, then they will face the victor of tonight’s other East Regional Semifinal between Illinois and Iowa State, neither of whom they have faced very often; UConn has taken each of their two encounters with the Illini, while winning two out of three against the Cyclones.