7:39 PM EST, TBS – Line: Purdue -5.5, Over/Under: 154.5
The second day of the 2024 NCAA Tournament’s Sweet Sixteen continues with another 5/1 matchup, as the dangerous fifth-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs are looking to spring the upset of the top-seeded Purdue Boilermakers, who continue their journey to retribution following last Spring’s stunning ousting, in this Midwest Regional Semifinal from Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. Now participating in their ninth consecutive Sweet Sixteen, Gonzaga (27-7, 14-2 in MWC) have gone from being a trendy underdog frequently punching above their weight class, to entering each tournament as one of the leading contenders to cut down the nets. Indeed, the Bulldogs have done much more than simply bow out of the big dance once it reaches this stage, as (Head Coach) Mark Few’s troops have progressed to FIVE Elite Eights during this period of time, including a pair of National Finals that they unfortunately lost (2017 and 2021). If they are to once again journey into the latter stages of the tourney, it is clear that these Zags will be taking the more arduous path; as a five seed, this is the lowest that they have been seeded since 2016, though this encounter with the Boilermakers will mark the first time that they have been pitted against a one seed since getting pummeled by Baylor in the 2021 National Championship Game. After losing four starters from last season’s incarnation, Gonzaga entered this campaign ranked eleventh in the country, as Few was forced to turn to the Transfer Portal to replenish his rotation. The most notable additions in Spokane were (Juniors) Graham Ike and Ruyan Nembhard from Wyoming and Creighton respectively, with the former arriving after being forced to take a medical redshirt last season with the Cowboys. The bruising 6’9″, 245-pounder has done a solid job of filling the void left by the program’s all-time leading scorer, Drew Timme, as Ike (pictured below) has posted 16.4 points on an efficient 61.2% shooting, along with 7.3 rebounds. As for Nembhard, the seasoned playmaker has been an excellent fit coming over from the Bluejays’ efficient offense, dishing out 6.9 assists. As a result, the Bulldogs have been both efficient and prolific on this end of the court, ranking seventh in the country in points (85.0), second in field goal percentage (51.9%), seventh in two-point percentage (59.0%), and nineteenth in assists (16.8), all the while committing just 9.9 turnovers. This prowess has been on full display here in the NCAA tournament, as Gonzaga has run through the likes of (12 seed) McNeese State (86-65) and (4 seed) Kansas (89-68) like a hot knife through a stick of butter. Over the last two rounds, they have outscored the opposition by a margin of 22.0 points, shot nearly 20% better from the field, and have bested them 7.0 boards per game on the glass. Balance has been the key for these Zags, who have seen five players score in double-figures in each affair, with Ike leading the way with sixteen points and ten rebounds against the Cowboys, while (Junior Forward) Anton Watson erupted for twenty-one points against the Jayhawks.
When we last saw Gonzaga, they absolutely hammered Kansas in an 89-68 blowout to book passage to their ninth straight Regional Semifinal. Billed as a battle between two powerhouses, only one of these schools lived to their reputation, with the Bulldogs sweeping the Jayhawks aside with frightening ease, despite only leading by one point at halftime. We’d love to hear what few told his team during intermission, because whatever it was it worked better than anyone could have expected as the Moutain West denizens outscored KU 46-24 over the final twenty minutes of action. When it was all said and done, the Zags shot a blistering 60.3% from the field, including 27-of-43 from within the arc (62.8%) and 8-of-15 beyond it (53.3%), while handing out nineteen assists in comparison to committing just nine turnovers. We touched upon Watson’s production earlier, but he was hardly the only contributor whose name bears mentioning, as (Junior Guard) Nolan Hickman totaled seventeen points on 7-of-11 shooting (63.6%) and 3-of-4 from downtown (75.0%), while Ike and (Junior Forward) Ben Gregg each logged fifteen points and nine rebounds apiece. As for Nembhard, he may have scored only five points, but he was dishing out assists like they were drugs, dealing out a dozen dimes on the day. With all this talk of their offensive firepower, Few’s troops deserve a lot of credit for the work they did in disrupting Kansas’ attack, as they held the Big XII bluebloods to 38.6% shooting, including a mere 18-of-48 from within the arc (37.5%). The likes of Ike and Grubb did a masterful job against the Jayhawks’ Hunter Dickinson, who stands 7’1″ and weighs in at 255 pounds, which is relevant as they will now cross paths with another titan, Purdue’s Zach Edey (much more on him shortly. Gonzaga really struggled with UConn’s size and length in their fateful encounter in last Spring’s Elite Eight, in which the Bulldogs were sent home in an embarrassing 54-82 loss, in which they were relegated to their worst shooting display of the campaign (33.3%), netting a miserable 2-of-20 from beyond the arc (10.0%). From a betting perspective, the Zags were a mediocre 17-16 against the spread this season, though have been far more rewarding of late with five covers in their last six outings following a run of three consecutive non-covers. With that being said, being an underdog in the big dance hasn’t been kind to them, as they’ve failed to cover four straight such ventures when receiving points from the oddsmakers, while posting a woeful 1-8 record in their nine neutral site games as a dog. Looking ahead, if Few & Co manage to topple the top seed in the Midwest, then they will face the winner of (3 seed) Creighton and (2 Seed) Tennessee in the Elite Eight. The dogs have done well against both programs, owning a 5-4 record against the former and a 4-2 mark versus the latter.
Meanwhile, the narrative surrounding Purdue (31-4, 17-3 in BIG 10) is that of redemption and retribution as they look to bounce back after becoming only the second one seed to ever be eliminated in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Indeed, you can’t blame (Head Coach) Matt Painter, who has recently been invoking the tale of the Virginia Cavaliers, who a year after becoming the first team to own that ignominious distinction, turned that disappoint into triumph, cutting down the nets as National Champions a year later. So far, so good for these Boilermakers, who have run through the first two rounds of the big dance with ease, dismissing the likes of (16 seed) Grambling (78-50) and (8 seed) Utah State (106-67) by a combined SIXTY-SEVEN points. A pair of Seniors who lived through the heartbreak of last year’s stunning 58-63 upset at the hands of Fairleigh-Dickinson have been at the forefront of this redemption arc, with the likes of Mason Gillis and (chief among them) Zach Edey putting in the necessary work to right said wrong. Speaking of Edey (pictured below) the reigning National Player of the Year is the frontrunner to claim that same award once again, though a second straight Wooden Award can’t compare to bringing the school its first National Championship. Standing at a colossal 7’4″ and 285 pounds, the titanic Canadian has been a one-man wrecking crew throughout much of his collegiate career, with the opposition oftentimes left frustrated as they simply cannot compare with his size and physicality around the rim. Case in point: the Boilermakers have crossed paths with Gonzaga in each of the last two seasons, the first being an 84-66 drubbing in Portland followed a year later by a 73-63 victory in Hawai’i last November. In regard to the former, Edey totaled twenty-three points on an efficient 10-of-16 shooting (62.5%), along with seven rebounds and three blocks, while the Zags were left to shoot just 40.3%, including 18-of-39 within the arc (46.2%), and were outrebounded 29-43. Furthermore, Purdue was 16-of-22 from the charity stripe in comparison to a scant 3-of-4 for the Bulldogs, which served as a clear example of their inability to defend the giant. As for the latter encounter, Edey & Co wore them down in the second half (43-28), with the big fella posting totals of twenty-five points on 8-of-16 shooting (50.0%), fourteen rebounds and three blocks. Again, Gonzaga couldn’t get their attack going due to the paint being clogged with his presence, shooting a dismal 37.7% overall and couldn’t get to the free-throw line much either (5-of-8), while committing just as many turnovers (13) as assists. A big man of his caliber can have a MASSIVE effect on how a game is played, with Edey’s limiting the opponents to a single shot at the rim due to his rebounding, altering many of those shots along the way, and oftentimes getting them into foul trouble early in the period. Simply put, there just aren’t many people on this planet that possess his skills at his size, which makes the Boilermakers one of the most dangerous teams in this tournament.
When we last saw Purdue, they utterly annihilated Utah State in a 106-67 blowout in last weekend’s second round encounter. This one was every bit as one-sided as that final score would suggest that it was, with the Boilermakers relishing in the freedom of getting out of the first round. Painter’s troops shot 55.9% from the field, including 27-of-45 from within the arc (60.0%) and 11-of-23 beyond it (47.8%), along with 19-of-23 from the charity stripe (82.6%). They outrebounded the Moutain West denizens 45-22, while assisting on a healthy twenty-nine of their thirty-eight field goals, and committed just nine turnovers along the way. Edey ended the day with twenty-three points on 8-of-11 shooting (72.7%), fourteen rebounds, three assists, two steals, and three blocks, despite sitting out much of the second half with the game well in hand. (Sophomore Forward) Trey Kaufman-Renn added eighteen points, eight rebounds, three assists, and a pair of blocks, while (Sophomore Guard) Fletcher Loyer chipped in with fifteen points and six helpers. Defensively, the top seed in the Midwest held USU to 35.9% shooting, including a paltry 14-of-37 from within the arc (37.8%) and 9-of-27 beyond it (33.3%), with just nine assists to their credit. From a betting perspective, Purdue is 18-15-2 against the spread this season, though are perfect in that regard in the big dance, notching back-to-back covers for the first time since early February. For those wondering, they covered each of their previous two meetings with Gonzaga, the first by a landslide as a 6.5-point underdog, and the second as a 5.0-point favorite in late November, which is only a half-point off of the spread for tonight’s affair. Looking ahead, a win tonight would send the Boilermakers to their first Elite Eight since 2019, and only their second in the last twenty-four years, where they will face the winner of Creighton and Tennessee in the other Midwest Regional Semifinal held later tonight. They have met the Volunteers on six occasions, winning four, the most recent of which being a 71-67 victory in late November’s Hawai’i Invitational, as Edey was as dominant as ever with twenty-three points and ten rebounds.
Projected Outcome: Purdue 82, Gonzaga 70
