8:49 PM EST, TBS – Line: Alabama -2.5, Over/Under: 164.5
While three quarters of this Spring’s 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket has gone largely as expected, that notion has NOT applied to the West Region where the sixth-ranked Clemson Tigers and fourth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide meet not on the gridiron but the hardwood, in this Elite Eight affair from crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California. Making their first appearance in regional final since 1980, Clemson (24-11, 11-9 in ACC) are breaking new ground under the direction of (Head Coach) Bob Brownell, now in his fourteenth season with the Tigers. Indeed, when you think of this school from South Carolina, you are undoubtedly drawn to the immense success that they achieved in football, but now it is time to give the basketball program some love; making their fourth NCAA Tournament appearance under Brownell, Clemson has now managed to string together back-to-back 20-win campaigns for just the second time in his tenure on the sideline, though this team did NOT have momentum on their side upon arriving to the big dance. Despite taking down (top seed in the West) North Carolina in Chapel Hill no less (80-76) back in early February, these cats stumbled down the stretch, losing two of their last three games of the regular season before getting bounced out of the ACC Tournament by Boston College in disappointing fashion (55-76). As such, they earned a six seed in the West Region, where they managed to snap out of their malaise and dismantle (11 seed) New Mexico in a 77-56 blowout victory. However, the true test came with their next opponent (3 seed) Baylor, whom they took to task in an 72-64 upset. Brownell’s troops were clearly superior to the Big XII powerhouse last weekend, leading 35-25 at halftime due in large part to their prowess on the defensive end of the hardwood, where they went on to relegate the Bears to a miserable 38.9% shooting from the field, including just 6-of- 24 from beyond the arc (25.0%), while forcing more turnovers (10) than assists permitted (7). On the flipside, the ACC denizens were met with little resistance when in possession of the rock, shooting a healthy 48.9% themselves, while calmly netting 20-of-24 free-throws (83.3%). (Senior Guard) Chase Hunter led the way with twenty points on 5-of-10 shooting (50.0%) drilling half of his team’s six treys, and knocking down 7-of-8 free-throws, along with six assists and a pair of steals. (Fellow Senior) P.J. Hall added eleven points, three rebounds, and a block, while (fifth-year Senior) Joseph Girard chipped in with thirteen points, three rebounds, and three assists to boot. If you’re paying attention that’s a lot of experience on the floor for Brownell, who can count upon the cool heads of a number of upperclassmen within his rotation, which has been paced by the aforementioned Hall (pictured below), who earned first-time All-ACC honors with 18.4 points on 49.0% shooting, 6.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.5 blocks. Look for him to pick up where he left off against the Crimson Tide when they met back in Tuscaloosa in late November, an 85-77 upset courtesy of the visiting Tigers. The 6’10” native of Spartanburg, South Carolina was in his bag in that matchup, totaling twenty-one points on 6-of-11 shooting (54.5%), including 3-of-5 from downtown (60.0%), eight rebounds, two assists, and four blocks. Clemson shot a blistering 53.3% overall on that day, with the edge coming from within the arc, where they netted a commanding 21-of-39 of their attempts (53.8%) in comparison to 12-of-32 from the hosts (37.5%), leading to an 18-point differential.
When we last saw Clemson, they added another scalp to their growing collection, eliminating the second seed in the West Region, Arizona, in a 77-72 victory. Just as they did to Baylor, they utilized a strong first-half performance to establish their advantage before fending off the looming rally in the second, outscoring the Wildcats 39-31 through the first twenty minutes of play. Efficient offense and sound defense have been the key to success for Brownell & Co in this big dance, as the Tiger shot 49.2% from the floor, including 21-of-34 from within the arc (61.8%), in comparison to BU, who were held to 37.3% shooting overall. With that being said, this could have gone the opposite way for these bengals, who shipped SIXTEEN offensive rebounds to the Pac-12 residents and were fortunate to see them miss eight of their twenty-five free-throws. Hall and hunter once again put in a strong effort, with the former posting seventeen points, eight rebounds, and a steal, while the latter led the way with eighteen points, seven boards, and five dimes. (Junior Forward) Ian Schieffelin really performed above his typical level, adding fourteen points, seven rebounds, three assists, and a pair of steals, along with two crucial triples in the second half. From a betting perspective, Clemson is a solid 19-14-2 against the spread this season, covering each of their last three outings, all of which have come as an underdog, which is once again the case in this rematch with Alabama. Interestingly, as win tonight would mark only the second time this season that they have managed to cover four games in a row, which is coincidentally how they closed out 2023. If the Tigers do manage to hand the Tide another loss, then they will be off to the Final Four for the first time the history of their program, where they will meet the winner of Illinois and (reigning champion) UConn next weekend. For those wondering, they have crossed paths with the Illini on five occasions, winning two of those matchups, while encountering the Huskies only once in their history, which ended in defeat.
Meanwhile, Alabama (24-11, 13-5 in SEC) is also making only their second trip to the Elite Eight, though their road here has been a bit different than that of their opponent. Last year, the Crimson Tide entered the tourney as one its four top seeds, though unfortunately met their demise in the Sweet Sixteen for the second time in three years. Needless to say, the Regional Semifinal had largely proven to be their ceiling throughout their history in this event; ‘Bama were a dismal 1-9 in this particular stage of the big dance, with their only triumph coming twenty years ago when they upset top-seeded Stanford in the second round. By all accounts, last year’s incarnation of the Tide was better than this one, particularly given the departures of (second overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft) Brandon Miller, Noah Clowney, Jahvon Quinerly, and Charles Bediako. (Head Coach) Nat Oats was forced to hit the Transfer Portal HARD, importing the likes of Aaron Estrada (Hofstra), Grant Nelson (North Dakota State), and Latrell Wrightsell (Cal State Fullerton), three seniors who have all gone on to play key roles within the rotation. Essentially, this is a different kind of experience than that possessed by their counterparts from South Carolina, for while the Tigers have groomed their upperclassmen over a number of seasons, Oats & Co have gone shopping for grown men. As a result, they’ve been forced to build chemistry within a relatively small window, which is evidenced by their inconsistent play over the second half of the campaign; Alabama finished the regular season on a 5-4 stretch and were one-and-done in the SEC Tournament courtesy of Florida (88-102), which marked the third time in six games in which they shipped 100+ points. You would think a veteran team with a coach in his fifth year on the job wouldn’t be so poor on the defensive end of the hardwood, but that simply is the case in Tuscaloosa. Can the Tide score? Absolutely, netting 90.7 points, which is the most of any team in the country. Unfortunately, they permit 81.1 points per game too, which checks in at 356th in the nation, which is really a byproduct of the pace in which they operate at. The Couple that with the fact that they can’t seem to stop fouling their opposition, sending them to the charity stripe 25.1 times per game (355th Overall), and you can see where the holes in this proverbial ship reside. This is a team that has shipped 20+ free-throws THIRTEEN times this season, NINE of which have come in their last twelve games alone, a period in which they are -6.0 per game in that particular category. Furthermore, they are 4-9 this year when their opponent knocks down 20+ free-throws. Looking at what they’ve done thus far in the NCAA Tournament, neither (13 seed) College of Charleston (109-96) or (12 seed) Grand Canyon (71-62) had the requisite firepower to trade blows with ‘Bama, even if both managed to get to the stripe a ton. Against the former, Oats’ troops shot 60.0% overall opposed to 41.0% for the Cougars, while against the Antelopes both sides were relegated well below 40.0% shooting, though both managed to stay relatively close throughout thanks to hitting 45-of-66 singles. All things considered, the SEC denizens were fortunate that the GCU missed fifteen free-throws, which proved to be the difference in a game in which points were hard to come by. With all that being said, the Sweet Sixteen proved to be a different story played out against a completely different opponent, the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels, in what could very well prove to be THE defining game of the campaign…
When we last saw Alabama, broke through their tourney limits and upset North Carolina in an 89-87 nailbiter. After trailing 46-54 at halftime, the Crimson Tide made a series of late runs to take the lead over the Tar Heels, thanks in large part to the play of seniors, Mark Sears and the aforementioned Nelson, who were fantastic down the stretch. Sears (pictured left) was responsible for a quick 7-0 run to move in front with less than five minutes left in regulation, while Nelson was a major factor at both ends of the court during the final two minutes of play. When it was all said and done, the former totaled eighteen points on 7-of-14 shooting (50.0%), with two rebounds, assists, and steals apiece, while the latter scored ten of his game-high twenty-four points from the free-throw line, while knocking down both of his attempts from downtown, securing a dozen rebounds, four of which were of the offensive variety, and FIVE blocks, including a swat of potential go-ahead layup in the waning moments. As a team, ‘Bama shot 47.8% from the field, including 21-of-41 within the arc (51.2%) and 11-of-26 beyond it (42.3%), though the biggest takeaway was their performance on the defensive end, where they all but shut down UNC, who could muster a disappointing 38.5% shooting, including only 18-of-46 from within the arc (39.1%). This was the most composed defensively that Oats’ outfit had been in months, as they built a bulwark at the rim and refrained from sending the Heels to the stripe egregiously (15-of-17 FTA). They’ll need to maintain this newfound prowess in tonight’s rematch with Clemson, who as we detailed earlier torched them on 53.3% shooting in a late November upset at Coleman Coliseum. The hosts held sizable advantages in free-throws, offensive rebounds, and second-chance points, but could not stop the Tigers from getting into the paint, where they manhandled by the residents of the ACC. Sears was really the only member of the rotation to enjoy much success offensively, leading the way with twenty-three points on 7-of-14 shooting (50.0%), while the rest of the group was left to muster just fifty-four points on 16-of-53 shooting (30.1%). From a betting perspective, Alabama is 20-15 against the spread this season, turning the tables with three consecutive covers in this tournament after managing just one in the seven contests beforehand. A win tonight will send the Crimson Tide to their first Final Four in school history, where they will encounter either Illinois or UConn, the former whom they have bested thrice in four meetings, while having yet to defeat the reigning champs in two matchups.
Projected Outcome: Clemson 78, Alabama 74
