5:05 PM EST, CBS – Line: Duke -6.5, Over/Under: 142.5
The final ticket to next weekend’s Final Four will be punched in this all-ACC affair in Dallas, as the surging eleventh-seeded North Carolina State Wolfpack cross paths with a familiar foe, the fourth-seeded Duke Blue Devils, in this South Region Final from American Airlines Center. Easily the most improbable participant in this latest edition of the Elite Eight, North Carolina State (25-14, 9-11 in ACC) were perhaps fortunate to even receive an invitation to the big dance in the first place. After all, they did NOT finish the regular season in convincing form, dropping TEN of their last fourteen games, including each of the last four contests leading into their conference tournament. However, somewhere between their season finale at Pittsburgh and the beginning of the ACC Tournament something clicked in the collective consciousness of the Wolfpack, who would go on to win FIVE games in as many days, booking passage to the greater tourney where they have continued to build momentum. So, what in the name of Jim Valvano has happened in Raleigh, you ask? Well, during the regular season this was a team that outscored their opponents by just 2.7 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field, including 34.6% from beyond the arc, with 12.7 assists opposed to committing 9.3 turnovers, while yielding 44.5% shooting overall and 35.1% from downtown, and getting outrebounded by teams by a margin of 0.4 boards. This disparity was even worse in conference play, where (Head Coach) Kevin Keatts’ troops were outscored by 1.9 points per outing and shipped 45.6% shooting overall and 36.6% shooting from three. However, in running the gauntlet through the conference tourney, these wolves have completely flipped the script, winning by 9.6 points per game and shooting a much healthier 48.4% from the floor, while applying more defensive pressure with 11.6 turnovers leading to 43.6% shooting allowed. With that being said, the x-factor has been their ability to get into the paint where they have drawn a wealth of attention from the officials, resulting in a parade at the charity stripe; NC State owned a +10.4-point advantage on free-throws during this span, which is crucial when it comes to enjoying success in these tournaments. Keatts also has the benefit of having one of the most experienced teams in the big dance, with FIVE seniors making up the bulk of his rotation, led by (Senior Guard) D.J. Horne, who over the last seven games has averaged 16.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.1 steals. The Fayetteville native erupted for twenty-nine points in the Wolfpack’s 84-76 upset of top-seeded North Carolina in the ACC Tournament Final, while bouncing back from an 8-point performance in his first meeting with Duke by posting eighteen points and five treys in the second leg.
When we last saw North Carolina State, they pulled their second upset of the tournament in knocking off (2 seed) Marquette in a 67-58 affair on Friday night, in which they led from start to finish. The Wolfpack jumped all over the Golden Eagles in the first half, taking a commanding 13-point lead into halftime. Keatts’ outfit shot a solid 46.4% from the field, netting 17-of-23 attempts from within the arc (51.5%) and 9-of-23 beyond it (39.1%), where they outscored the Big East residents by fifteen points. Horne (pictured right) was in his bag in this one, folks, leading the way with nineteen points, scoring twelve of them from beyond the arc where he knocked down 4-of-7 triples (57.1%). Fellow senior, Casey Morsell, added fifteen points on 7-of-12 shooting (58.3%), while (Senior Forward) D.J. Burns, scored just four points, but impacted the game in a variety of other ways with four rebounds and seven assists. As has been the case throughout this big dance, NC State has feasted on the defensive end, with that narrative continuing in this Regional Semifinal, where Marquette were relegated to just 33.3% from the field, including a miserable 4-of-31 from downtown (12.9%) and a scant eight assists. They’ll need to ride that defensive prowess in this third encounter with the Blue Devils in less than a month; after getting torched for seventy-nine points in 47.1% shooting, they did a much better job in the conference tourney, yielding sixty-nine points on 43.1% shooting. (Senior Center) Mohamed Diarra was a key figure in the latter affair, with the Missouri transfer posting totals of fourteen points and sixteen rebounds, along with three steals and four blocks opposing Duke’s Kyle Filipowski (much more on him in a bit). From a betting perspective, North Carolina State is a middling 19-19-1 against the spread this season, though have covered SIX of their last seven contests after a stretch in which they failed to do so ten times in fifteen games. Coincidentally, each of these covers have come as an underdog, which is relevant given that is the same role that they find themselves in tonight. Furthermore, these canines have covered SEVEN straight neutral site games when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Looking ahead, if the Wolfpack do manage to emerge victorious tonight, then they will advance to their third Final Four in school history, which is notable for the fact that in their two previous appearances they have been the last team standing (1974 and 1983). They’ll be pitted against the winner of (1 seed) Purdue and (2 seed) Tennessee, owning a 4-2 record against the former and a 6-5 mark versus the latter. In fact, they met the Volunteers recently back in mid-December, a 70-79 defeat in San Antonio.
Meanwhile, playing the foil to NC State’s Cinderella is a familiar one, as Duke (27-8, 15-5 in ACC) is nothing short of basketball royalty when it comes to the big dance. The Blue Devils have participated in a whopping FORTY-SIX NCAA Tournaments, owning a staggering 122-40 record (.753), including seventeen Final Fours and FIVE National Championships. However, the vast majority of that success came under the leadership of legendary Head Coach, Mike Krzyzewski, who ended his 42-year tenure in Durham with their latest trip to a National Semifinal (2022). Succeeding the Hall of Famer is (Head Coach) Jon Scheyer, who after enjoying a 4-year playing career culminating in a National Title in 2010, spent twelve years as one of Coach K’s chief lieutenants. In his first season on the job, the 36-year-old led the Devils to a 27-9 record and an ACC Tournament Championship, though success in the greater NCAA Tournament was elusive, as he and his troops were bludgeoned in a 52-65 defeat at the hands of Tennessee, who are ironically one their two potential opponents if they advance to the Final Four next weekend. This season, Scheyer continued to attract high-profile recruits and amassed a similar 27-8 record, though entered the postseason without the benefit of momentum, losing to bitter rival, North Carolina in the finale before getting bounced out of the conference tournament by NC State in that aforementioned second encounter. With that in mind, Duke must have taken it personal that they were only a four seed, as they obliterated the likes of (13 seed) Vermont (64-47) and (12 seed) James Madison (93-55) in the first two rounds by a combined FIFTY-FIVE points. Last weekend’s contests featured 48.1% shooting from the field, including 43.5% from beyond the arc, where they outscored the opposition by a commanding 16.5 points in that latter regard. It was very clean, efficient basketball by the Blue Devils, who dished out 16.5 assists in comparison to committing just 7.5 turnovers, while outrebounding the Catamounts and Dukes by a margin of 8.0 boards and relegating them to 38.2% shooting overall and a miserable 23.1% from three. (Freshman Guard) Jared McCain erupted for THIRTY points against James Madison, knocking down 8-of-11 triples (72.7%), while (towering Center) Kyle Filipowski has slowly warmed up during this period, finishing with just three points on one field goal attempt in thirty-seven minutes against Vermont, before totaling fourteen points, five rebounds, and four assists versus JMU. The Sophomore has been Duke’s biggest weapon this season, with the seven-footer averaging 16.6 points on 51.2% shooting, including 35.8% from downtown, along with 8.3 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 blocks, featuring heavily in that second leg against NC State, where his size created a wealth of problems for the Wolfpack. Filipowski (pictured below) totaled twenty-eight points on 13-of-20 shooting (65.0%) and fourteen rebounds (five offensive), and three steals in a losing effort. Given how successful their opponent has been in terms of penetration, the big fella is expected to play a LARGE role in the outcome of tonight’s Regional Final.
When we last saw Duke, they knocked off one of the favorites to cut down the nets, (1 seed) Houston in a grueling 54-51 affair on Friday night. Before a decisively biased crowd in Dallas, the Blue Devils took it to the Cougars from the opening tip, though received a stroke of good fortune in the form of a sprained ankle to (Houston Guard) Jamal Shead, who after thirteen minutes of action would not return. It was quite clear that the BIG XII residents were not the same on either end of the court without their leading man, which Scheyer’s troops exploited throughout the second half as they managed to keep their opponent at bay despite waves of pressure being thrown at them. In a game in which both teams shot exactly 40.8% from the field, the difference came from the perimeter where the Devils knocked down 6-of-17 three-pointers, outscoring Houston (2-of-8 3FG) by twelve points in that regard. Filipowski ended the night with sixteen points, nine rebounds, and a pair of assists, while (Senior Guard) Jeremy Roach added fourteen points and three assists, including a clutch jumper inside of a minute left to play to extend the lead to six points. From a betting perspective, Duke has been almost as rewarding against the spread as they been on the money line, posting a stellar 21-14 record in that former regard, with twelve covers coming in their last sixteen contests. Looking ahead, if the Blue Devils manage to win this rubber match with the Wolfpack tonight, then they will be off to their EIGHTEENTH Final Four in school history and second in three years. From there, they will face either Purdue or Tennessee, whom they have faced eight and nine times apiece; despite historically struggling against the Boilermakers (3-5), that has not been the case with the Vols, whom they have bested six times.
Projected Outcome: Duke 72, NC State 68
