8:00 PM EST, NBA TV – Line: Pelicans -1.5, Over/Under: 233.5
As March gives way to April, the NBA Playoffs are looming large as a litany of teams jockey for postseason positioning over these next two weeks, with tonight’s affair between the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans featuring two such sides. At this juncture of the campaign, one can’t help but feel that time is running out on the Suns (43-31, 7th in Western Conference), who despite the considerable firepower of their star-studded triumvirate have lacked the overall consistency of a true championship contender, due in large part to the construction of their roster and ill-timed injuries. Between (four-time scoring champion) Kevin Durant, (4-time All-Star) Devin Booker, and (3-time All-Star) Bradley Beal, Phoenix has three scoring machines capable of erupting for 40+ points on any given night. Furthermore, their skillsets all complement on another very well, even if there has been criticism that the team lacks a true Point Guard to facilitate the attack. While it is true that turnovers have been an issue for this group (14.9, 25th Overall), the two most pressing issues have been their lack of size and the overall health of the big three. In constructing a roster outside of Durant, Booker, and Beal (pictured together below), (Head Coach) Frank Vogel and (General Manager) James Jones had to shop at the proverbial bargain bin to surround their stars with quality pieces. While (Guards) Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon have provided supplementary shooting and playmaking, they’re hardly a physical presence in the paint, leaving (veteran Center) Jusuf Nurkic the only legitimate option on the frontline. The towering Bosnian has been a useful big throughout his career, though there is a sense that he has been a bit overstretched in his role with the Suns, who have struggled mightily on the glass, with their opponents logging 11.1 offensive rebounds (27th Overall) leading to a dismal defensive rebound percentage of 75.4% (18th Overall). Coupled with the aforementioned turnovers, the opposition is attempting 91.1 shots per game (23rd Overall), which is 4.9 more attempts than Phoenix. As for the injuries, Durant, Booker, and Beal have missed a combined FIFTY games thus far, starting just thirty-one games together of a possible seventy-four. Within that sample set, Vogel’s troops are 18-13 with that particular three-man combination being only the eighth-most utilized by the coaching staff (669:03) and are +6.7 points over 100 possessions. Sure, all but two of their games together have come within the last thirty-nine games of the schedule, which is absolutely necessary in terms of building chemistry for the playoffs, but one can’t help but feel that all that time lost over the first thirty-five games has been detrimental towards reaching their potential together. It has been that potential that has led to so many pundits remaining so bullish on their playoff prospects, for this is a team that has bested the (reigning NBA Champion) Nuggets twice in the month of March, at Ball Arena no less, the most recent being a 104-97 triumph last Wednesday.
When we last saw the Suns, they followed that victory over the defending champs with a 103-128 blowout loss on the road at the Thunder. This was an affair in which Phoenix’s defensive frailties came to light, as they simply couldn’t deter Oklahoma City from getting to where they wanted to go with the basketball. The hosts shot a blistering 56.3% from the field, including a lethal 16-of-30 from beyond the arc (53.3%), dishing out thirty-three assists in comparison to committing just ten turnovers. The visitors were also bested in a number of other categories, including paint points (-10), fastbreak points (-9), and points off turnovers (-4). Durant was more than solid with a team-high twenty-six points on an efficient 10-of-17 shooting (58.8%), including 4-of-7 from three (57.1%), but the rest of the team was less so, netting just 41.4% of their attempts overall. Looking at this particular matchup, have taken five of the last seven meetings between these sides, including a 123-109 affair in the Big Easy back mid-January, which saw Booker erupt for FIFTY-TWO points on 18-of-30 shooting (60.0%), including 6-of-11 from three (54.5%) and 10-of-10 from the charity stripe. From a betting perspective, the Suns have been one of the most least-profitable teams in the Association this season, particularly against the spread where they have posted a miserable 30-43-1 record, equating to a 13-game differential between their success on the money line and ATS. With that being said, they have been better of late in that regard, covering five of their last eight outings. Looking ahead, Phoenix faces an absolutely hellacious schedule to close the regular season, facing the Pelicans, Clippers, and Timberwolves all twice apiece, with games against the Cavaliers and Kings thrown in there for good measure. Minnesota, Los Angeles, and New Orleans all sit at least two games ahead of them in the standings, with Sacramento trailing by a half-game. These opponents carry a cumulative win percentage of .623, which stands as the toughest opposing win percentage over a final eight-game span that any team has faced in three decades. If Vogel & Co are to indeed remove themselves from the play-in tournament, which nobody in the West seems to want any part of, then they will certainly be made to earn it.
Meanwhile, if there is another team out West more familiar with the plight of being held from reaching their potential due to injury, it is easily the Pelicans (45-29, 5th in Western Conference), who we have been waiting on their arrival for years. Two years ago, it seemed that they were on the cusp of doing so when they gave the top-seeded Suns everything they could handle in a grueling series that pushed both sides to the breaking point. Unfortunately, New Orleans missed the playoffs altogether last year thanks in large part to a revolving door of injuries to key personnel, none more so than (2-time All-Star Forward) Zion Williamson. The former number one overall pick was presented as a generational talent coming out of college five years ago, though persistent injuries to his lower body relegated him to a mere 114 games through the first four years of his career. Hell, he was sidelined for the entirety of the 2021-2022 campaign and all but twenty-nine contests of last season due to complications rehabbing from foot malady. After an offseason full of criticism of his conditioning and questions over his future with the franchise, the 23-year-old responded by getting into the best shape of his life and has thus begun to scratch the surface on the immense talent that has been just waiting to be tapped into. Williamson (pictured below) has played in a career-high SIXTY-THREE of seventy-four games thus far, averaging 22.8 points on 58.5% shooting from the field, along with 5.9 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.0 steal, with his size and physicality around the rim helping to forge the Pels into one of the best defensive teams in the Association; (Head Coach) Willie Green’s troops rank eighth in points allowed (110.3), fifth in field goal percentage allowed (46.0%), third in three-point percentage permitted (34.6%), eighth in turnover percentage (12.7%), sixth in defensive rebounding percentage (76.9%), and tenth in free-throw/field goal attempt ratio (18.7%). Now if they could only get a healthy (veteran Swingman) Brandon Ingram back in the lineup, then these Pelicans could really take flight. The lithe 26-year-old has developed into one of the most effective pure scorers in the NBA since arriving in New Orleans five years ago, displaying an inside-outside game that complements Williamson quite nicely; Ingram has averaged 20.9 points on 49.0% shooting, including 35.6% from beyond the arc, along with 5.1 rebounds, and 5.8 assists. However, he has missed the last five games due to a bone bruise in his left knee and has yet to be re-evaluated by the team’s medical staff. In his absence, these birds are 3-2 with losses against some of the league’s best, the Thunder (112-119) and Celtics (92-104), in which they have really slowed things down, averaging 107.2 points on 45.1% shooting, including 36.6% from three, with 24.4 assists in comparison to just 9.2 turnovers, while permitting 102.4 points on 44.8% shooting and 34.3% from the perimeter, and 23.6 assists opposed to forcing 11.6 turnovers.
When we last saw the Pelicans, they crossed paths with the Celtics, who sit atop the NBA by a wide margin, which was only expanded upon with their annual trip to Smoothie King Center. Indeed, the 92-104 defeat was reflective of the distance between these two teams, though it should be noted that New Orleans started strong despite not having the services of Ingram to back them up. The hosts led 37-28 at the end of the first quarter, thanks to some truly blistering shooting (62.5%), including 5-of-11 from downtown (45.5%), with Williamson and (veteran sharpshooter) C.J. McCollum each pouring in a dozen points apiece. Unfortunately, Green’s troops couldn’t maintain that level of shooting the rest of the way, mustering just FIFTY-FIVE points the rest of the way, as they were outscored by TWENTY-FOUR points between the second and third periods. When it was all said and done, the home side shot a dreadful 39.5% from the floor, with Williamson and McCollum combining for forty-nine points on 19-of-40 shooting (47.5%), eleven rebounds, nine assists, and three steals. The rest of the Pels were far less-effective, combining for only forty-three points on 32.6% shooting. Looking at tonight’s matchup, the Pelicans were run off the court when they crossed paths with the Suns back in mid-January, when they were outscored by fifteen points from beyond the arc, with the aforementioned Booker raining fire down upon Smoothie King Center. From a betting perspective, New Orleans is a solid 40-33-1 against the spread this season, though they have failed to cover the line in four of their last six games. Coincidentally, four of those outings have come as an underdog, though that is not the case tonight. Looking ahead, the Pels own a two-game lead over Phoenix in the standings and are fortunate to face a much softer schedule the rest of the way, with dates with the Spurs and Blazers awaiting, before closing out the campaign with the Warriors and Lakers, the tenth and ninth seeds respectively.
Projected Outcome: Suns 116, Pelicans 110
