10:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Warriors -1, Over/Under: 232.0
Time is running out to make moves as the playoffs are just over two weeks away, with plenty to be decided in terms of seeding, particularly out west where the Dallas Mavericks travel to Chase Center to face off with the Golden State Warriors in an affair ripe with postseason implications. Arguably the hottest team in the league over the past month, the Mavericks (45-29, 5th in Western Conference) have successfully navigated their way out of the dreaded play-in tournament and into the middle of the playoff field. Winners of eleven of their last twelve contests, Dallas has really found their rhythm on both ends of the hardwood, besting their opponents by an average of 12.8 points per game, shooting a sweltering 50.3% overall and 37.4% from beyond the arc, with 28.6 assists opposed to committing 11.3 turnovers, while shipping just 43.8% shooting and forcing 12.9 turnovers. (Perennial All-Star Guard) Luka Doncic and (fellow All-Star) Kyrie Irving have complemented one another beautifully during this run, with the former logging 31.0 points on 45.2% shooting, including 39.0% from downtown, along with 9.9 rebounds and assists apiece, with five triple-doubles, while the latter has been in his bag with 24.2 points on 50.7% shooting and 38.2% from three, 4.4 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 1.3 steals. Indeed, there isn’t a more lethal twosome in the league than Doncic and Irving (pictured together below), as both are capable of singlehandedly dismantling a defense. However, there is more to these Mavs than just those two All-Stars, for (Head Coach) Jason Kidd and (General Manager) Nico Harrison have done a solid job of building and developing the supporting cast around them. Over the last two seasons, there was a serious deficiency in size on this roster, though that is no longer the case with the additions of (Rookie Center) Derek Lively Jr. along with (veteran Forwards) P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, the latter arriving at the trade deadline. Though there was initial criticism over how much the Mavericks gave up getting them, the size and length that they have infused the rotation with have been undeniable; during this 12-game run, they’ve won the battle of the boards (+2.4), while disrupting passing lanes with 7.8 steals, and protecting the rim with 5.9 blocks, which are all above their season averages. This newfound prowess was on full display when they last met the Warriors back on March 13th, a 109-99 victory at American Airlines Center where they relegated the visitors below 100 points, 40.2% shooting, 9-of-28 (32.1%) from the perimeter and forced fifteen turnovers. Granted, there was no Steph Curry in this one (much more on him in a bit), but it was nonetheless another example of the growth of this team on the defensive end.
When we last saw the Mavericks, they cruised to their seventh consecutive victory, a 125-107 drubbing of their instate rivals, the Rockets, who had previously ripped off eleven straight wins. This one was never close as Dallas took care of business early, outscoring the hosts 66-45 in the first half, where they shot 52.1% from the field, including a lethal 13-of-24 from beyond the arc (54.2%), while in turn holding Houston to a dreadful 34.9% shooting overall. Doncic would score THIRTY-SEVEN of his forty-seven points before intermission, drilling 12-of-18 shots (66.7%) and 6-of-10 treys (60.0%) in just under eighteen minutes of action. When it was all said and done, Irving had totaled twenty-four points, while Washington added a dozen, while Gafford played the role of deterrent to a tee with five blocks. From a betting perspective, the Mavericks have been nearly as good against the spread as they have been on the money line, posting a strong 43-31 mark in that former regard. Furthermore, they have been the HOTTEST team in the Association on both fronts, covering ELEVEN of their last twelve outings, including each of their past five contests. On the injury front, the aforementioned Lively is listed as questionable with a lower leg malady, along with (young Swingman) Josh Green (ankle), who has missed the last seven outings. Looking ahead, if the Mavs wish to continue their vault up the standings, the remaining schedule should present them with the opportunity to do so, with a three-game homestand against the Hawks, Warriors, and Rockets, before closing out the campaign with the Hornets, Heat, Pistons, and Thunder.
Meanwhile, there is a real sense of urgency that permeating from San Francisco, where the Warriors (40-34, 10th in Western Conference) are fighting for their play-in lives. You’ll notice that we used the term play-in rather than playoff lives, because that is precisely what it has come to for Golden State, who just two years after winning their fourth Larry O’Brien Trophy in eight seasons, have been relegated to the very last postseason seed, where they will be forced to win not one, but two games in order to face the overall top seed in the mighty Western Conference. With that in mind, they only lead the Rockets by two games in the standings, a revelation that was a byproduct of Houston’s impressive form (11-1 over their last 12 games) and the Dubs’ own malaise. (Head Coach) Steve Kerr’s troops went 9-8 in their first seventeen games after the All-Star Break, though appear to have finally righted the proverbial ship, winning each of their last four contests. Over the last week, the Warriors have outscored their opposition by a whopping 12.7 points per game on a healthy 50.6% shooting, including 35.0% from beyond the arc, with 31.5 assists opposed to committing 12.3 turnovers, while shipping 42.0% shooting and 25.8 assists. Granted, wins over the Hornets and the Spurs to round out this 5-game road trip came at the most opportune of times, drawing attention away from the two lingering issues that threaten their postseason qualification. First and foremost, (8-time All-Defense selection) Draymond Green continues to be a lightning rod for controversy, as he was ejected just FOUR minutes into Golden State’s venture to Orlando last week. Sure, the Dubs managed to rally back to a 101-93 victory, but the sudden exit of their best defender and chief playmaker poured more gasoline on the fire that has been the disconnect between Green and the rest of his team. Green has now missed TWENTY-FIVE games thus far, a whopping TWELVE of which due to suspension, with his team posting an 11-14 record in his absence. The other issue has been the shooting decline of (two-time MVP) Steph Curry, who since the All-Star Break has not been the force of nature from beyond the arc that he has been throughout his stellar career. In eighteen games since the Break, Curry (pictured below alongside Green) has shot just 41.2% from the field, including 35.5% from downtown, with nearly half as many turnovers (2.2) as assists (4.9). The 10-time All-Star did miss three games during that period with an ailing wrist, but we don’t need to lament how different this team is without his dangerous shooting. Given the decline of (sharpshooting Guard) Klay Thompson, the Warriors need Curry’s shooting more than ever, with the very threat of talents shifting the defense like a current of water in the ocean, in turn informing much of the attack. Fortunately, it appears that he may have rediscovered his touch at the right time in Sunday’s narrow victory over the Spurs…
When we last saw the Warriors, they took care of business in a game that they absolutely had to have, besting the Spurs in a 117-113 affair, which saw the aforementioned Curry and Green perform their best. Trailing 52-60 at halftime, Golden State put together one of their many vintage third quarter explosions to overtake San Antonio, outscoring them 37-21 in the period on 13-of-245 shooting (54.2%), including 5-of-10 from beyond the arc (50.0%), with eleven assists in comparison to committing just one turnover. Curry led the way with thirty-three points on an efficient 12-of-23 shooting (52.2%), including 7-of-15 from downtown (46.7%), along with eight assists. As for Green, all he did was post totals of twenty-one points on a near-perfect 8-of-9 shooting (88.9%), six rebounds, eleven assists, and SIX steals. It was almost as if Kerr’s outfit had been reading the articles that had been written of their demise, for even if the win did come against the worst team in the Western Conference, it was certainly cathartic all the same. From a betting perspective, the Warriors have also enjoyed comparable success straight-up and against the spread, owning a 40-33-1 record in that latter regard. Golden State saw a streak of three consecutive covers with that narrow victory over San Antonio, though this has generally been a team that has bounced back from spread loss, posting back-to-back non-covers on just two occasions since January 12th. On the injury front, the (emerging Forward) Jonathan Kuminga is a game-time decision due to tendinitis in his knee, while (veteran Forward) Dario Saric is out of action with a bulky knee of his own. Looking ahead, the Dubs are playing with fire down the stretch with the Rockets breathing down the back of their neck, setting up a crucial encounter in Houston on Thursday. Afterwards, Kerr & Co will remain in the Lone Star State for another affair with the Mavs, before facing the Jazz (twice), Lakers, Blazers, and Pelicans to close the regular season.