10:30 PM EST, NBA TV – Line: Suns -5.5, Over/Under: 233.5
With just THREE days left in the regular season, there is still PLENTY to be decided in terms of playoff positioning, particularly out west where tonight’s affair between the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings will go a long way towards defining each team’s path in the postseason, with the Play-In Tournament looming next week. At this point it is safe to say that we all expected much more of these Suns (47-33, 7th in Western Conference) in 2023-2024, who instead of emerging as the legitimate championship contender that many fashioned them to be, are instead desperately trying to ascend above the play-in field, where nobody in the wild, wild west would prefer to be. Coming into tonight’s trip to Golden 1 Center, Phoenix finds themselves trailing New Orleans (who are also in action tonight) by a single game for sixth in the standings with two games to go for both franchises, though it is the latter who face the more difficult schedule. After this date with the Kings, (Head Coach) Frank Vogel’s troops will wrap up the campaign with an arduous visit to Minnesota, who are vying for the top seed in the conference. For those wondering, the Suns do happen to own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Pelicans, though the birds face a softer finish, with the Warriors and Lakers. So, given the high expectations surrounding them, how did it come to this for Phoenix, you ask? Well, any team in this era is going draw a wealth of attention if they manage to assemble a triumvirate of All-Stars, which this club did with the successive trades for (four-time Scoring Champion) Kevin Durant and (three-time All-Star) Bradley Beal with a span of six months. However, rather than take the Association by storm, this group has been held back by two factors: a lack of quality depth and the health of their stars. Anytime to acquire stars of this magnitude via trade, you are going to part ways with a lot of capital, (I.E. depth and draft picks), with the ensuing salaries of those stars making it difficult to fill out the supporting cast with the requisite depth and experience to put together a lengthy playoff run. Whereas the likes of veterans such as Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic have played well in supporting roles, they haven’t been enough to overcome two of the most glaring weaknesses on this roster: the lack of a true Point Guard and physicality in the paint. Sure, Durant, Beal, and (fellow All-Star) Devin Booker can more than adequately handle the rock and facilitate the attack, but these guys are lethal scorers, who are much more at home creating for themselves than others. They also don’t take very good care of the basketball, ranking fifth-worst in turnovers (14.0) and fourth-worst in turnover percentage (12.7%). Granted, this is an issue that may have worked itself out with the development of chemistry on the hardwood, but that has been something hard to come by for the Suns, particularly Durant, Beal, and Booker (pictured together below), who have missed a combined FORTY-THREE games this season. In fact, the big three have started just THIRTY-NINE games together thus far, which equates to a meager 48.7% of the campaign, with a record of 24-15 to show for it (.615). Thankfully, over half of those games together have come over the last six weeks in which Phoenix has gone 12-9, earning impressive victories over the (reigning champion) Nuggets (twice), Timberwolves, Pelicans, and Clippers, who are all coincidentally sitting above them in the standings. During this stretch, Vogel’s troops have settled into a rhythm offensively, averaging 113.1 points on 48.5% shooting from the field, including 38.8% from beyond the arc. Durant has been making it look easy, folks, posting 25.7 points on 51.4% shooting and 39.4% from downtown, along with 6.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.1 blocks.
When we last saw the Suns, they bounced back from a 13-point defeat at home to the Clippers to return the favor in a 124-108 home-in-home set on Wednesday night. Despite being a tightly-contested affair through three quarters, Phoenix put their foot on the gas in a decisive final stanza in which they outscored Los Angeles 32-15. There is an argument to made that it shouldn’t have even come that, given that the hosts opted to sit much of their starting lineup after clinching their playoff seeding, but let’s give the visitors credit for waking up and taking advantage of the situation. Vogel’s outfit shot a blistering 12-of-21 from the field (57.1%) in comparison to 7-of-26 of their opponent (26.9%), with Booker nearly outscoring them by himself, logging a dozen of his THIRTY-SEVEN points in the final twelve minutes of play. Beal and Durant added a combined fifty points when it was all said and done, with the triumvirate accounting for EIGHTY-SEVEN of their team’s scoring, though (journeymen) Royce O’Neale and Eric Gordon added fifteen and eleven respectively in support. However, Phoenix simply must clean up their issues on the defensive end, for it was awfully telling that a Clippers team without the likes of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden still managed to run with them through three quarters of action. From a betting perspective, the Suns have been far less-rewarding against the spread this season, posting a disappointing 34-45-1 record in that regard (43.1%), which equates to a miserable -13 differential in comparison to the money line. Sure, a lot of that has had to do with the persistent hype around this group, but it should be noted that they have been a much better bet of late, covering nine of their last fifteen outings. Looking at tonight’s matchup, Phoenix has split the season series with Sacramento (they met in the in-season tourney), with this rubber match granting the victor the tiebreaker. After losing the first two encounters, Durant & Co won the last two in narrow fashion by a combined SEVEN points, including a 130-125 victory back in mid-February. Looking ahead, a win in NoCal will create some more space between the Suns and rest of the play-in pack, but they will need some help from the Warriors, who are also looking to climb up the play-in ladder tonight against the Pelicans, in order to move into that all-important sixth seed. Of course, seeing as how the top three seeds out west are still in flux, getting out of the play-in could mean a first-round matchup with either the Wolves, Thunder, or Nuggets, who eliminated Phoenix in six games last May.
Meanwhile, we’ve said it before and we will say it again: what a difference a year has made for the Kings (45-38, 8th in Western Conference), who a year after emerging as the darling of the NBA have entered full-on crisis mode. This time last season, Sacramento had successfully snapped the longest playoff drought in the league (16 years!), thanks to the leadership of (Coach of the Year) Mike Brown and the emergence of (All-NBA selections) De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis (pictured together below), pushing the (reigning champion) Warriors to a fateful seventh game in the first round, where they ultimately came up short. As such, expectations began to grow in NoCal, where the maturation of one of the youngest rosters in the Association was sure to spell success for a franchise that has been long starved of it. However, that has not been the case for these monarchs, who despite being just a few games off the pace that earned them the third seed in last year’s postseason, could inexplicably find themselves in tenth place by the end of Sunday’s finale. Indeed, coming into tonight’s penultimate round of action, the Kings sit level with both the Warriors and Lakers with only head-to-head tiebreakers against both outfits positioning them at eighth in the standings. With that being said, Sacramento has been easily the worst form of the three residents of California, losing four of their last five games. So, what in the name of Vlade Divac has happened in Sac-town, you ask? Well, apart from the rest of the Western Conference getting markedly better, this is a roster that has for all intents and purposes remained the same. It is hard to fault Brown and (General Manager) Monte McNair for standing pat given the exponential internal development they enjoyed a year ago, but that approach appears to have been a serious mistake given their continued struggles on the defensive end of the hardwood now coupled with a lack of depth due to injury. The first issue is nothing new, for this wasn’t a good defensive team last year, in which they finished twenty-fifth in both points allowed (118.1) and defensive rating (116.8). This season, they rank a bit higher despite those figures being roughly equivalent to their predecessors (115.3, 117.7), though over the last nine games, a period in which they are just 3-6, they’ve been downright abysmal despite playing at a much slower pace. Brown’s troops have relinquished 109.4 points per game over this run, but have been shipping 47.1% shooting overall and an untenable 40.8% from beyond the arc, all the while sending the opposition to the charity stripe 23.3 times a night. If that wasn’t bad enough, there are the injuries to contend with, particularly those of (supporting Guards) Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk. Together, the duo combines for 25.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 7.7 assists, with both shooting 35.0% or better from three, where they have accounted for a whopping 271 total treys, equating to 23.5% of the team’s total. Unfortunately, Huerter has missed the last thirteen games and will thus be sidelined for the rest of the season and playoffs due to a dislocated left shoulder and torn labrum, while Monk has been out for seven straight games thanks to a sprained MCL with his return highly unlikely for next week’s play-in. With this in mind, you can now understand why these Kings have experienced such a dip in form, for in the past they could overcome their deficiencies on defense thanks to their prolific attack, but now that is no longer the case.
When we last saw the Kings, they dropped their fourth game out of five contests, a 123-135 drubbing at the hands of the Pelicans on Thursday night. With the two teams jockeying for a path out of the play-in it was a disappointing performance from Sacramento, even with their current predicament in mind. New Orleans jumped on the hosts early, outscoring them 34-23 in the first quarter, shooting a blistering 12-of-23 from the field (52.2%), including 6-of-11 from beyond the arc (54.5%), which Brown & Co simply could not overcome. When it was all said and done, the home side caught fire, shooting 54.8% overall and 16-of-38 from downtown (42.1%), though were nonetheless eviscerated by the visitors, who shot a whopping 57.0% from the floor and 22-of-40 from three (55.0%), where they outscored the monarchs by a commanding eighteen points. Fox led the way with thirty-three points on an efficient 11-of-18 shooting (61.1%), along with five rebounds, eight assists, and a pair of steals, though coughed up the rock SIX times, while Sabonis posted eighteen points and ten rebounds, buoyed by (veteran Swingman) Harrison Barnes with twenty-two points, five boards, and four dimes. From a betting perspective, the Kings have been the very definition of mediocre in terms of the spread, owning an even 40-40 record (50.0%) in that regard, which as we know is what the books really want above all else. Looking at this particular matchup, Sacramento is utterly desperate for a win, though they have been unable to secure one over Phoenix in either of their two previous meetings, a 117-119 defeat on January 16th, followed a month later by a 125-130 loss on February 13th. In both cases, the visitors struggled to contain the Suns’ big three down the stretch despite outbursts from both Fox and Sabonis, who combined for a staggering SEVENTY-FIVE points in the latter of those two encounters. Looking ahead, a win tonight would virtually lock up the eighth seed for the Kings, who as we stated earlier, hold the tiebreakers over both the Warriors and Lakers. Sacramento concludes the regular season at home against the lowly Blazers (21-59), whom they have split two meetings with. Losing both games would be nothing short of cataclysmic for Brown & Co, who would thus need to win not one, but TWO road games in the play-in before being matched up with the number one seed out west, which is NOT a pathway to success.
Projected Outcome: Suns 118, Kings 110
