3:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Pelicans -3.5, Over/Under: 229.5
The ultimate day of the 2023-2024 NBA Regular Season is here, folks, and there is still a WEALTH of things to be decided in terms of playoff positioning, particularly out west where both the Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans meet in an attempt to further their postseason prospects in this affair from Smoothie King Center. By virtually every metric, this campaign has been a disappointing one for the Lakers (46-35, 8th in Western Conference), who have thus far failed to meet typically lofty expectations. Granted, as the most successful franchise in league history, the mandate is often championship or bust for Los Angeles, though there was a sense coming into this season that said expectations were justified. After struggling mightily throughout two-thirds of the previous campaign, (General Manager) Rob Pelinka completely revamped his rotation at the Trade Deadline with a series of moves that netted the club (veteran Point Guard) D’Angelo Russell and (emerging Forward) Rui Hachimura among others, which served as a launching pad to qualify for the Play-In Tournament. From there, (Head Coach) Darvin Ham’s troops went on an inspired run in upsetting the Grizzlies and Warriors in successive series before being swept by the (eventual NBA Champion) Nuggets in the Conference Finals, ending their campaign on a bitter yet hopeful note. With that in mind, the Lakers opted to maintain continuity and run it back with the unit that they assembled at the deadline, for after all, if that was what they could do in a truncated period of time, how good could they be with an entire offseason to gel? Well, unfortunately for the faithful in SoCal and beyond, Los Angeles really hasn’t been any better this season than they were last, as they once again find themselves jockeying for position not at the top of the west, but in the Play-In. So, what in the name of Earvin Johnson has happened in the City of Angels, you ask? (Four-time MVP) LeBron James (pictured below) and (perennial All-Star) Anthony Davis have been much healthier than they have in years past, missing a combined seventeen games thus far, though that hasn’t elevated the team to where many thought they would be. Russell, whose name was bandied about at the deadline, has really played well over the second half of the season, while Ham has finally found a starting lineup that he can build upon, returning to the James/Davis/Russell/Hachimura/Austin Reaves quintet that was so successful last Spring. With that said, this team has been simply average in comparison to their competition, ranking fifteenth in offensive rating (115.8) and sixteenth in defensive rating (115.4), which equates to a mediocre net rating of +0.4 (19th Overall). However, James & Co have managed to win ten of their last thirteen games, their most positive stretch of the schedule; Los Angeles has found their rhythm offensively in scoring 122.0 points on an efficient 49.8% shooting from the field, including 37.7% from beyond the arc, all the while planting their flag at the charity stripe with 21.9 free-throws, where they have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 8.7 points. Granted, they haven’t done a great job on the defensive end of the hardwood, too often getting into shootouts with their opponents, which cannot be counted upon come playoff time. Remember, much of their success last Spring came via their tenacious defense, anchored by Davis in the paint. Over these last thirteen contests, the Lakers have shipped 116.5 points on 46.6% shooting overall and 37.0% from downtown, with 28.0 assists in comparison to forcing 13.2 turnovers.
When we last saw the Lakers, they snapped a two-game losing streak that had dropped them to tenth place out west, with a narrow 123-120 victory over the decimated Grizzlies. There is something to be said for a team like Los Angeles, which allegedly harbors championship aspirations, to struggle so much against a Memphis side that listed THIRTEEN players inactive due to injury. With that said, they still needed a combined SEVENTY-THREE points, TWENTY-FOUR rebounds, and TEN assists from James and Davis to barely escape a lineup that featured household names such as Jakes LaRavia, GG Jackson, Trey Jamison, Jordan Goodwin, and Scottie Pippen Jr. Granted, a lot of teams are running on fumes with the finish line in sight, but this isn’t a good sign for Ham’s outfit, who were lit up from beyond the arc (17-of-39 3FG). The key in this one was the charity stripe, where the visitors continued to hold a commanding advantage; LA attempted THIRTEEN more free-throws than the home side, netting 26-of-34 (76.5%) parlaying to a +9 advantage, which they absolutely needed. Looking at evening’s matchup, the Lakers are 2-1 in three meetings with the Pelicans this season, with none of them being particularly close. All three encounters have been decided by seventeen or more points, including the most recent, a 139-122 affair at crypto.com Arena back in early February. A 51-35 barrage in the second quarter was enough to put this one out of reach for the hosts, as that aforementioned starting lineup that has brought Ham such success accounted for a whopping 119 points, led by Russell with thirty points, including 6-of-13 threes. Of course, when talking about this matchup, it is impossible not to mention Davis’s history with New Orleans, who drafted him number one overall back in 2012, before eventually trading him to Los Angeles for a king’s ransom in 2019, where he would immediately help lead the Lakers to their seventeenth NBA Championship. In thirteen career meetings with his former employers, the big fella has averaged 25.8 points on 52.3% shooting, along with 11.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.0 blocks. From a betting perspective, the Lakers have been one of the least-rewarding teams in the Association in terms of the spread, posting a disappointing 37-44 record in that regard (45.7%), which includes three consecutive non-covers coming into this finale in the Big Easy. For what it is worth, the home team has won and covered SIX of the last seven games between these sides, with the only road victory being Los Angeles (+2) in a 123-108 drubbing of New Orleans back in March of 2023. On the injury front, (Forwards) Christian Wood (knee) and Jarred Vanderbilt (foot) are both out of action with no timetable to return, with the latter’s perimeter defense sorely missed over these last thirty games. Looking ahead, a win this evening would secure the eighth seed for the Lakers, which is crucial for a variety of reasons. First, it would provide them with the comfort of knowing that they would only need one victory in potentially two play-in games to advance to playoffs proper. This would also give them the luxury of agency, as they would know who they would be pitted against in the first round, be it Minnesota, Oklahoma City, or Denver, adjusting their approach as such.
Meanwhile, on the other end of the hardwood are the Pelicans (49-32, 6th in Western Conference), who are desperate to officially arrive in the playoffs. After all, this has been a team that many of us have been waiting on for a few years now; with just one postseason appearance over the last five years, New Orleans has served as the stereotypical next team for a while now, armed with a litany of promising young players on cost-controlled contracts just waiting for their moment to break out, while the team itself is set up for the future with a wealth of draft capital. However, apart from a spirited performance in the first round of the 2022 playoffs in which they pushed the top-seeded Suns to six games, this has been a team that has been unfortunately held back by injuries, particularly to the most notable member of their roster: Zion Williamson. Drafted number one overall a year after shipping the aforementioned Davis to Los Angeles, Williamson (pictured below) was heralded as a generational talent, with rare hyper athleticism packed within the frame of a wrecking ball (6’6″, 284 lbs). However, persistent foot injuries coupled with inconsistent conditioning would relegate the big fella to just 114 games in FOUR seasons with that nagging foot sidelining him for the entirety of the 2021-2022 campaign and all but twenty-nine games of last season. Thankfully, that all appears to be in the rearview mirror. After an offseason full of criticism of his conditioning and questions over his future with the franchise, the 23-year-old responded by getting into the best shape of his life and has thus begun to scratch the surface on the immense talent that has been just waiting to be tapped into. Williamson has played in a career-high SIXTY-NINE of eighty-one games thus far, averaging 23.0 points on an efficient 57.4%% shooting from the field, along with 5.8 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.1 steals, with his size and physicality around the rim helping to forge the Pels into one of the best defensive teams in the Association. (Head Coach) Willie Green’s troops rank eighth in points allowed (110.5), fifth in field goal percentage allowed (46.3%), first in three-point percentage permitted (34.9%), fifth in turnover percentage (12.9%), eighth in defensive rebounding percentage (76.9%), and eleventh in free-throw/field goal attempt ratio (18.6%). If we’re looking solely at metrics, these birds are a far better team than their opponent this evening, ranking tenth (117.5) and seventh (112.7) in offensive and defensive rating respectively, which equates to a much healthier net rating of +4.8, sixth-best in the Association. Given their youth, it is a good sign that they seem to be peaking at the right time, winning each of their last four contests heading into this finale; during this period in which they have toppled the Suns (113-105), Kings (135-123), and Warriors (much more on this one shortly), who are all jockeying for positioning within the Play-In, they have really settled into a rhythm offensively, winning by an average margin of 8.7 points on the strength of 48.0% shooting overall, including a blistering 45.1% from beyond the arc, along with 27.5 assists in comparison to committing just 10.5 turnovers. However, that’s only been half of the story, as the Pels’ swarming defensive pressure has led to SIXTY-SIX turnovers in those contests, parlaying to NINETY-SIX points in their favor, a commanding +29 advantage in that category (+7.2 PPG).
When we last saw the Pelicans, they completed the turnaround with their fourth consecutive victory following four straight defeats, besting the Warriors in a 114-109 affair on Friday night, which as we’ll discuss shortly, was a boon in their attempt to avoid the Play-In. Trailing 17-26 after the first quarter, New Orleans put their foot on the gas int he second period and blasted Golden State in 45-22, which was enough to carry them the rest of the way. The visitors were simply sublime during that stretch, netting 16-of-23 shots from the field (69.6%), including a ridiculous 10-of-13 from beyond the arc (76.9%), with a dozen assists in comparison to committing just a pair of turnovers. (Veteran Guard) C.J. McCollum caught fire with fifteen of his team-high twenty-eight points in the stanza, drilling 5-of-7 triples (71.4%) along the way. In the end, Green’s troops outscored the Dubs by TWENTY-ONE points from downtown, with all five starters scoring in double-figures. Apart from McCollum, Williamson posted another strong performance with twenty-six points on 11-of-26 shooting (42.3%), three rebounds, three assists, and SIX steals, while (emerging Swingman) Trey Murphy added twenty-four points, eight rebounds, and six three-pointers. The visiting side forced SIXTEEN turnovers, leading to TWENTY-FIVE points on the night, half of which coming during that watershed second quarter. Looking at this evening’s matchup with the Lakers, the Pelicans have taken just one of their three previous encounters, with their lone victory being a 129-109 affair in the Big Easy back on New Year’s Eve. Defense has been the biggest issue for New Orleans in those contests, as Los Angeles has shot 52.7% from the field and 41.8% from three against them, with the charity stripe playing a big role in the outcomes; Green’s outfit has sent their opponent to the line for a whopping 28.3 free-throws, which has kept his team at bay in transition. From a betting perspective, the Pelicans have been a far more rewarding bet against the spread in comparison to their opponent this evening, posting a solid 43-37-1 record in that regard (53.7%), bolstered by three covers in their last four outings. On the injury front, these birds will be without the likes of (young Forward) Naj Marshall (shoulder) and (veteran Swingman) Brandon Ingram (knee), with the latter individual notable given that he was included in the bounty that LA paid for Davis five years ago. A smooth scorer from anywhere on the court, the former second overall pick has developed into an All-Star in New Orleans, though has missed the last twelve games due to a bone bruise in his left knee, with his return undetermined at this time. Looking ahead, a win in this finale would clinch the sixth seed for the Pelicans, which would pit them against the lesser of the Wolves, Thunder, and Nuggets following today’s action, while a loss would be far more damaging. If they were to lose to the Lakers and the Suns happen to prove victorious in Minneapolis, then they would drop into the play-in where they will host either the Kings, Warriors, or Lakers in next week’s Play-In Tournament, which could prove to be chaos for New Orleans, who will have two opportunities, each being contested at Smoothie King, to advance to the greater playoffs.