7:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: 76ers -5.5, Over/Under: 208.5
The NBA’s Play-In Tournament shifts east, where a matchup typically reserved for much later in the postseason headlines the action tonight, as the eighth-seeded Miami Heat travel to the City of Brotherly Love to battle the seventh-seeded Philadelphia 76ers, with a ticket to Big Apple on the line. For those of you moaning about the legitimacy of the Play-In, we’d implore you to look no further than the Heat (46-36, 8th in Eastern Conference), who this time last Spring, entered the postseason as the seventh seed only to escape the Play-In, upset the top-seeded Bucks, Knicks, and Celtics in succession before finally running out of gas in the NBA Finals. Indeed, we’ve talked about the importance of experience in the playoffs, with Miami proving that such a commodity can be deployed as a trump card. After all, (Head Coach) Eric Spoelstra’s troops have advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals in each of the last two campaigns, despite beginning from polar different starting points: in 2022, they were the top seed in, while in 2023 they forced to exercise not one, but TWO Play-In games just to face Milwaukee. So, with that in mind, what do we make of this particular group from South Beach? Well, there is no doubt that they enter the postseason with more momentum than they have had in quite a while, winning seven of their final ten games. During this particular stretch, the offense has heated up (pun intended, folks), as Miami have bested their opponents by an average margin of 11.5 points, posting 116.1 points per game on a healthy 48.8% shooting from the field, including 38.5% from beyond the arc, while dishing out 27.6 assists in comparison to committing 12.5 turnovers. However, there have been two factors that have led to this shift in scoring, with the first being their prowess from downtown. On the season, this was a unit that ranked in the middle of the pack in terms of three-point field goals (12.5) and percentage (37.0%), while actually being outscored by their opponents in this regard (-1.5). Over the last ten games it has been a different story though, with the Heat knocking down 14.3 treys a night equating to a commanding +10.2 advantage from the perimeter. The other factor has been their knack for getting to the charity stripe, where they have long been one of the more prolific teams in the Association; Spoelstra’s outfit is +2.8 in attempts and +3.0 in makes on the season, only to see both of those figures rise of late, with 18.2 free-throws made (+3.3) on 21.3 attempts (+3.3). By getting to the line, they are able to dictate the pace of play to their liking, which also gives them the benefit of being able to get back and set up their halfcourt defense, which remains on the best in the league. Over these ten outings, opponents have been relegated to a mere 104.6 points on 44.5% shooting, including a scant 29.2% from three. With all that being said, it certainly helps to have most of your weapons healthy too. Miami has been without many of their biggest names for swaths of action, including the likes of (perennial All-Star) Jimmy Butler (22 games), (former Sixth Man of the Year) Tyler Herro (40 games), and (playoff hero) Caleb Martin (18 games). In the case of Butler (pictured below), it is no coincidence that this uptick in form has occurred with his return to fitness; the 34-year-old has averaged 17.7 points on an efficient 49.1% shooting, including 40.7% from deep, along with 5.0 rebounds and 5.7 assists. Of course, we are all well acquainted with his annua transformation into Playoff Jimmy, where he has proven capable of singlehandedly carrying the Heat to victory. During last year’s run to the Finals, Butler was a whirlwind on both ends of the hardwood, with 26.9 points on 46.8% shooting and 35.9% from three, in addition to 6.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.8 steals.
When we last saw the Heat, they roasted the Raptors in back-to-back games at Kaseya Center, the second leg being a 118-103 affair that stamped their ticket for the Play-In. While this one was level after one quarter of action, the hosts separated themselves in the second period, outscoring the dinosaurs 43-22 on a blistering 18-of-24 shooting (75.0%), including 5-of-9 from beyond the arc (55.6%), with FIFTEEN assists on eighteen field goals. Needless to say, that was enough to get the job done, folks, as Miami had little trouble disposing of Toronto for the second time in three nights. When it was all said and done, Spoelstra’s charges had SEVEN different players reach double-figures in scoring, led by (key reserves) Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Thomas Bryant with eighteen points apiece on a collective 14-of-22 shooting (63.6%). Butler, Herro, and (All-Star Forward) Bam Adebayo sat much of the second half, though all reached fifteen points or more, with Herro adding six rebounds and eight assists, though did struggle to take care of the rock with a game-high six turnovers. Looking at tonight’s contest, this is a meaty matchup to say the least, mostly due to Butler’s previous association with the 76ers. Of course, the veteran half a season with Philadelphia where he quickly became a favorite of the fan base and the locker room, leading the franchise to a walk-off three-pointer away from the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals. To the surprise of many, the Sixers opted NOT to sign him to a long-term contract, which prompted his exit to South Beach, where he would lead the Heat to a pair of NBA Finals in four seasons. Hell, he even eliminated his former employers in the 2022 Eastern Semifinals, where he logged 27.5 points on 51.3% shooting, along with 7.5 rebounds, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.7 steals. From a betting perspective, Miami has been a fairly mediocre team against the spread this season, posting a 40-39-3 record in that regard (50.6%), though they have managed to cover all but one of the last eight games that they’ve been victors, with the lone exception being that aforementioned win over Toronto in which they were favored by 16.5 points, their largest spread of the year. On the injury front, the Heat will likely be without two important pieces of the rotation in this trip to Wells Fargo, as (veterans) Duncan Robinson and Terry Rozier are expected to be sidelined with various maladies. The former, who represents their most lethal threat from deep, has been dealing with an ailing back, while the latter, whom the club added via trade at the deadline, has been battling neck spasms of late. Looking ahead, if Butler & Co manage to leave Philly victorious, then they will be pitted against (longtime rivals) the Knicks in a rematch of last Spring’s Eastern Semifinals, though a loss would see them playing host to the winner of tonight’s latter Play-In affair between the Hawks and Bulls, whom they are a combined 5-3 against this season.
Meanwhile, the 76ers (47-35, 7th in Eastern Conference) have been no stranger to the ups and downs of sports, but even this season has been an outlier. It would be difficult to list every turn of events that occurred during the last ten months for this franchise, but we’ll do our best to give you the broad strokes. It all started back in June, when (Lead Executive) Daryl Morey opted against offering (perennial All-Star) James Harden a super-max extension that many thought to be a formality after the club acquired him via trade eighteen months prior. Harden, as he has been prone to do, demanded a trade and separated himself from all team functions. During this period, (Head Coach) Doc Rivers was relieved of his duties and replaced by (2019-2020 Coach of the Year) Nick Nurse. After months of speculation, the bearded one was eventually dealt to the Clippers in a blockbuster deal featuring four teams, with the Sixers receiving a wealth of future draft capital, but not much in the way of actual players to fill the void. With that being said, it appeared to be addition by subtraction for Philadelphia, who got off to a tremendous start with a 29-13 record towards the end of January; (reigning MVP) Joel Embiid looked well on his way towards earning a second consecutive honor, averaging 35.3 points on 53.3% shooting, with 11.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.8 blocks during that stretch, while (emerging Point Guard) Tyrese Maxey has flourished in Harden’s absence with career-highs in scoring (25.9), rebounds (3.7), assists (6.2), and steals (1.0). Unfortunately, Embiid (pictured below) would suffer a torn MCL on January 24th, which would dramatically alter the campaign for Nurse & Co, as they would be without the big fella for the next TWENTY-NINE games. As you can imagine, the mandate shifted to survival at that point, with the 76ers struggling to hold on for two months in which they mustered an 11-18 record. Thankfully, Embiid returned from that lengthy absence and has completely transformed the fortunes of his team; since his return to the hardwood, Philadelphia has yet to lose, winning each of their last seven games to secure the top seed in tonight’s Play-In. Essentially, this has been a tale of two campaigns for the Sixers, who in the thirty-nine games that he has featured in, own the second-best win percentage in the Association (.794). Starting five of these contests, the Cameroon International has picked up where he left off, averaging 30.4 points on 49.5% shooting, including a deadly 48.1% from three, along with 9.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks. Arguably the most notable of those performances came in a narrow 109-105 victory over the Heat, in which the big fella went off for twenty-nine points on 11-of-25 shooting (44.0%), four rebounds, three assists, a steal and a block apiece. With both sides looking as if they were on the verge of running out of gas in the final stanza, it was Philly that made the shots and got the stops, netting 8-of-18 field goals (44.4%), while limiting Miami to a dismal 6-of-22 (27.3%), with more turnovers (5) than assists (3). Maxey was a huge component to their success, scoring a game-high thirty-seven points along with nine rebounds and eleven assists, including nine points in the fourth quarter.
When we last saw the 76ers, they didn’t need the presence of their talisman to dispose of the Nets in a 107-86 drubbing, which punched their ticket for seventh in the east. Despite trailing 22-23 at the end of the first quarter, Philadelphia put their foot on the gas in the second period, outscoring Brooklyn 33-21 during that frame. The difference was perimeter shooting, which the hosts utilized to devastating effect in knocking down 6-of-14 attempts (42.9%) in comparison to a mere 1-of-7 (14.3%) from the visitors, equating to a 15-point difference. When it was all said and done, the Sixers absolutely annihilated their opponent on the glass (57-42), particularly on the offensive end where they racked up thirteen boards without Embiid, which led thirteen more field goal attempts. Five different players scored in double-figures for Nurse’s charges, led by Maxey and (veteran Forward) Tobias Harris, who together combined for forty-seven points on 18-of-35 shooting (51.4%), including 6-of-13 from three (46.1%), eleven rebounds, five assists, and two steals. The bench added forty-eight points to boot, spearheaded by (veteran marksman) Buddy Heild, who was added at the trade deadline, with nineteen points, seven boards, and five dimes. Looking at tonight’s encounter with Miami, the two sides have split their four meetings this season, with Philly taking each of the last two including that aforementioned affair from two weeks ago. Simply put, the margin between them has been razor thin, folks, with both teams averaging exactly 106.0 points per game. Nurse & Co have shot incrementally better (45.1% FG, 34.6% 3FG) and have been able to force a greater share of turnovers (14.3), though are -4.0 at the charity stripe and -9.3 on the glass. Of course, Embiid participated in only ONE of those four contests, missing each of the first three, which explains the negative differential at the stripe and on the boards. From a betting perspective, the 76ers have actually been more rewarding against the spread this season than have straight-up, posting a stellar 49-32-1 record in that regard (60.4%), a mark that has been bolstered by a staggering FOURTEEN covers in their last sixteen games, including TEN straight to end the regular season. On the injury front, Embiid missed the season finale against Brooklyn for precautionary reasons, as Nurse and his staff have been doing everything to manage his minutes and ensure that he will be healthy for this postseason run, however long it may last. Looking ahead, a win tonight would send Philadelphia to New York where they will face the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs proper, while a loss would see them hosting either Atlanta or Chicago over the weekend, whom they are 3-4 against this season, with the victor to be pitted against top-seeded Boston, which nobody really wants at that stage.
Projected Outcome: 76ers 106, Heat 98
