9:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Kings -1.5, Over/Under: 214.5
The final ticket for the 2024 NBA Playoffs is to be punched tonight, as the Sacramento Kings look to get off the schneid against the New Orleans Pelicans, who have just been dealt the most unfortunate of injury blows in this, the most important game of their season. What a difference a year has made for the Kings (46-36, 9th in Western Conference), who a year after emerging as the darling of the NBA have found the encore exponentially more difficult to perform. This time last Spring, Sacramento had successfully snapped the longest playoff drought in the Association (16 years!), thanks to the leadership of (Coach of the Year) Mike Brown and the emergence of (All-NBA selections) De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis (pictured together below), pushing the (reigning champion) Warriors to a fateful seventh game in the first round, where they ultimately came up short. As such, expectations began to grow in Northern California, where the maturation of one of the youngest rosters in the league was sure to spell success for a franchise that has been long starved of it. However, that has not been the case for these monarchs, who despite finishing just two games off the pace that earned them the third seed in last year’s postseason, have thus found themselves having to win not one, but TWO Play-Ins just to get back to the playoffs. So, what in the name of Vlade Divac has happened in Sac-town, you ask? Well, apart from the rest of the Western Conference getting markedly better, this is a roster that has for all intents and purposes remained the same. It is hard to fault Brown and (General Manager) Monte McNair for standing pat given the exponential internal development they enjoyed a year ago, but that approach appears to have been a serious mistake given their continued struggles on the defensive end of the hardwood now coupled with a lack of depth due to injury. The first issue is nothing new, for this wasn’t a good defensive team last year, in which they finished twenty-fifth in both points allowed (118.1) and defensive rating (116.8). This season, they rank a bit higher despite those figures being roughly equivalent to their predecessors (114.8, 115.2), though over their final eleven games, a period in which they are just 4-7, they’ve been continued to leave a lot to be desired despite playing at a much slower pace. Brown’s troops have relinquished 106.8 points per game over this run, but have been shipping 45.9% shooting overall and 37.6% from beyond the arc, all the while sending the opposition to the charity stripe 22.2 times a night. If that wasn’t bad enough, there are the injuries to contend with, particularly those of (supporting Guards) Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk. Together, the duo combines for 25.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 7.7 assists, with both shooting 35.0% or better from three, where they have accounted for a whopping 271 total treys, equating to 23.5% of the team’s total. Unfortunately, Huerter has missed the last fifteen games and will thus be sidelined for the rest of the postseason due to a dislocated left shoulder and torn labrum, while Monk has been out for nine straight games thanks to a sprained MCL with his return nowhere in sight. With this in mind, you can now understand why these Kings have experienced such a dip in form, for in the past they could overcome their deficiencies on defense thanks to their prolific attack, but now that is no longer the case.
When we last saw the Kings, they successfully righted the ship with a decisive 118-94 blowout victory of the Warriors in Tuesday’s Play-In, getting revenge for that aforementioned defeat in last year’s playoffs. Simply put, this one was never in question, folks, as Sacramento took it to their NoCal rivals from the opening tip. The hosts led by as many as twenty-six points in this one-sided affair despite shooting just 43.8% from the field. When you’re not shooting a high percentage, you have to make up for it in other ways, which Brown’s troops did by buckling down on the defensive end, relegating Golden State to 41.3% shooting overall and 10-of-32 from beyond the arc (31.3%), while turning sixteen turnovers into twenty points. Furthermore, the home side logged fifteen offensive rebounds, which coupled with said takeaways led to EIGHTEEN more field goal attempts. All five starters scored in double-figures, led by (Sophomore Swingman) Keegan Murray, who torched the Dubs for thirty-two points on 8-of-13 shooting from downtown (61.5%), while Fox added twenty-four points on 11-of-25 shooting (44.0%). As for Sabonis, he continued his strong string of performances against the Warriors, posting totals of seventeen points, twelve rebounds, and seven assists, which was good for his league-leading SEVENTY-EIGHTH double-double of the campaign. Looking at tonight’s matchup, they’ll need to bring a similar effort if they are to knock off the Pelicans, who have beaten them FIVE times in five tries this season (they met in the In-Season Tournament). Needless to say, there couldn’t be a worse opponent for Brown & Co to see in the second leg of this Play-In, particularly without the services of the aforementioned Huerter and Monk. Then again, New Orleans is far from full strength (much more on that shortly), which should level the playing field in this doe-or-die affair. Sacramento must find a way to slow down an opponent that has utterly dogwalked them to the tune of 128.2 points on 54.6% shooting and 45.1% from three. They have repeatedly struggled with the birds’ size and physicality, particularly around the rim where they have been outrebounded by a staggering 13.4 boards per game. From a betting perspective, the Kings finished just above water level against the spread, posting a 43-40 record in that regard (51.8%), which included ten covers in their last sixteen outings, three of which coming in their most recent tilts. Looking ahead, if Sacramento were to finally get one over on the Pelicans then they will be off to Oklahoma City for the first round of the playoffs proper, which is a matchup that they have managed to split in four encounters.
Meanwhile, there is never a good time to lose a star player due to injury, with the postseason being the absolutely WORST time for that to happen, yet that is nevertheless where the Pelicans (49-33, 7th in Western Conference) find themselves at the moment. Simply put, we all have been waiting on New Orleans for a few years now, as persistent injuries have held back a promising, gifted young team from reaching the potential that they have exhibited in that entertaining 2022 series against the top-seeded Suns. However, it is difficult to reach said potential when the player who is supposed to be the foundation of the franchise, in this case (former number one overall pick) Zion Williamson, can’t consistently remain healthy. By now we all know the story with Zion (pictured below), who was heralded as a generational talent, with rare hyper athleticism packed within the frame of a wrecking ball (6’6″, 284 lbs). Unfortunately, persistent foot injuries coupled with inconsistent conditioning would relegate the big fella to just 114 games in FOUR seasons with that nagging foot sidelining him for the entirety of the 2021-2022 campaign and all but twenty-nine games of last season. However, this year seemed to be the breakthrough, with the 23-year-old playing in a career-high SEVENTY games, which unsurprisingly led to the most consistent run of form both the individual and the collective. Williamson averaged 22.9 points on an efficient 57.0% shooting from the field, along with 5.8 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.1 steals, with his size and physicality around the rim helping to forge the Pels into one of the best defensive teams in the Association. (Head Coach) Willie Green’s troops rank eighth in points allowed (110.7), seventh in field goal percentage allowed (46.4%), second in three-point percentage permitted (34.9%), fifth in turnover percentage (12.9%), eighth in defensive rebounding percentage (76.9%), and eleventh in free-throw/field goal attempt ratio (18.6%). While a loss to the Lakers in the season finale dropped them into the Play-In, Zion turned in arguably the most impressive performance of his career in Tuesday night’s narrow defeat to Los Angeles (much more on this one in a bit), totaling FORTY points before being forced to leave the hardwood due to visible discomfort in his hamstring. Needless to say, this is a crushing yet familiar blow to the Pelicans, who should be well-acquainted to life without their talisman, though that won’t make it any easier to get to the first round, even against a team that they have absolutely owned this year. Without Williamson, New Orleans is 7-5 thus far, thanks in large part to shifting their approach to a more balanced attack centered around the talents of (lithe swingman) Brandon Ingram and (veteran sharpshooter) McCollum. The former is a gifted scorer that can produce points from virtually anywhere on the court (20.8 points, 49.2% FG), though lacks the playing strength to truly make headway in the paint, where he is frequently thrown aside. As for the latter, the 32-year-old is the old man of this group, though has nonetheless been on fire for a month now, logging 25.9 points on 47.4% shooting, including a sublime 48.2% from downtown, along with 4.4 rebounds, and 5.7 assists.
When we last saw the Pelicans, they dropped their fourth game in five meetings with the Lakers in Tuesday night’s Play-In, a 106-110 affair at Smoothie King Center to put their playoff hopes on the brink. Two days after getting blown out at home against Los Angeles, it appeared that New Orleans was well on their way towards meeting that same fate as they trailed by as many as eighteen points, though they authored a whirlwind comeback to draw even with just under two minutes left to play. However, experience proved to be the decisive factor in this one, folks, as the visitors made the most of their opportunities with six crucial free-throws down the stretch to book passage to the first round. Despite hammering their opponent in the paint (+26) and on the glass (+9), Green’s troops were bested from beyond the arc (-15), while being made to pay for their mistakes with twelve points off thirteen turnovers. Furthermore, they simply couldn’t keep them off the charity stripe, where they shot FOURTEEN fewer free-throws than the visiting side, equating to a 15-point disadvantage in that regard. Despite leaving for the locker room at the conclusion of the contest, Williamson poured in FORTY points on an efficient 17-of-27 shooting (63.0%), eleven rebounds, and five assists. Five other players scored in double-figures as well, including the aforementioned Ingram, who posted eleven points, four boards, and four dimes in his first outing back after a 12-game absence due to a bone bruise in his left knee. Looking at tonight’s matchup with the Kings, the Pelicans have to favor their chances, even without the presence of Williamson, given that they have swept the season series (5-0). New Orleans has dominated this encounter, folks, outscoring Sacramento by a whopping 19.2 points on the strength of 128.2 points on 54.6% shooting, including 45.1% from three. Granted, Williamson had a sizeable impact on the outcome of these contests, averaging 23.0 points on 65.6% shooting, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.8 assists in four meetings this season. It should be noted that the one game that he did not participate in, a 133-100 drubbing in Northern California, saw the visitors shoot 61.0% overall and 19-of-35 from downtown (54.5%), led by McCollum with thirty points and seven treys. From a betting perspective, the Pelicans are 43-39-1 against the spread this season (52.4%), though have failed to cover ten of their last fifteen outings, including each of their last two against the Lakers. Looking ahead, if Green & Co manage to survive in the wake of Zion’s latest injury, then they will be heading to Oklahoma City for a first-round matchup with the top-seeded Thunder, who they are 1-2 in three encounters.
Projected Outcome: Kings 109, Pelicans 104
