1:00 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Cavaliers -4.5, Over/Under: 207.5
With the Play-In now firmly in the rearview mirror, the 2024 NBA Playoffs begin this afternoon with an intriguing first-round matchup featuring the emerging Orlando Magic and the Cleveland Cavaliers from Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, with the latter desperate to redeem themselves following last Spring’s brutal exit. Before we get into the hosts, we’re going to dive deep into the Magic (47-35, 5th in Eastern Conference), who if not for a certain top-seeded team in Oklahoma City, would be the most improved team in the Association by a wide margin. After spending the majority of the last decade navigating through the basketball wilderness, Orlando has emerged as a team to watch in the future thanks to a homegrown cache of talent. We have been wondering for years when it was all going to together for this team after years hording trading picks and cycling through a variety of coaches. Indeed, it felt as if there wasn’t a plan in place for a quite while in Central Florida, but credit (Lead Executive) Jeff Weltman and (Head Coach) Jamahl Mosely for assembling and cultivating this roster into a cohesive unit for the first time in ages. Under Mosely’s leadership, the Magic have improved incrementally throughout his three years on the sideline; following a 22-60 campaign that netted them the number one overall pick in the 2022 Draft, Orlando won twelve more games in his second season with the franchise (34-48), only to make an even greater leap in year three with forty-seven wins, their most since the 2010-2011 campaign. This is a big, athletic team that evolved into one of the toughest defensive units in the NBA, ranking fourth in points allowed (108.4), second in defensive rating (111.3), first in turnover percentage (13.8%), and third in defensive rebound percentage (78.1%). (2022 Number One Overall Pick) Paolo Banchero and (2021 Eighth Overall Pick) Franz Vagner (pictured together below) form the nucleus of the promising frontcourt, with the likes of Wendall Carter Jr. and the finally healthy, Jonathan Isaac offering depth, with all four players aged twenty-six years or younger. Furthermore, (2021 Fifth Overall Pick) Jalen Suggs has begun turning into the lead Guard that this group lacked, bringing balance to their loaded Frontcourt; Suggs has logged career-highs across the board, including scoring (12.6), field goal percentage (47.1%00), three-point percentage (39.7%), and steals (1.4), with his length making him a valuable two-way player at the point. We’ll see if their youthfulness doesn’t betray them in the playoffs, where experience so often proves to be the decisive factor, for Mosley’s troops didn’t necessarily end the regular season on a high; the Magic won just five of their final twelve outings, due in large part to their offensive play becoming a bit more stagnant than had been throughout the season, averaging just 107.9 points on 46.5% shooting and 33.9% from beyond the arc, while outrebounding the opposition by just 0.2 boards (well below their average), along with dishing out 24.6 assists in comparison to committing 12.6 turnovers. Those figures might have been good enough to win a series ten years ago, but they won’t come close to cutting it in this day and age.
When we last saw the Magic, they capped the regular season with a 113-88 drubbing of the Bucks that punched their ticket for the fifth seed. With (two-time MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo sitting out due to an ongoing calf strain, the visitors struggled to deal with Orlando’s size and length. The hosts relegated Milwaukee to 40.0% shooting and 7-of-27 from beyond the arc (25.9%), while battering them on the glass 43-34, and harassing them into a whopping seventeen turnovers that Mosely’s troops managed to manufacture into twenty-four points. Furthermore, this played into a commanding 25-0 advantage in fastbreak points, which is absolutely crucial for a young team that gets bogged down in the halfcourt far too often. Banchero and Vagner combined for fifty-one points on 18-of-40 shooting (45.0%), sixteen rebounds, ten assists, and three steals, while (young Guard) Cole Anthony and Franz’s brother, Moritz, added thirteen and ten points respectively off the bench. Looking at this afternoon’s matchup, the Magic split their four meeting with the Cavaliers this season, with each team tasting victory on the other’s home floor. In these encounters, Orlando has generally struggled to slow down Cleveland’s shooting (which we’ll get into shortly), but more importantly hasn’t really measured up with their opponent’s size. Indeed, the Cavs may be even bigger than them in the Frontcourt, evidenced by a -4.8 differential in rebounding, aided heavily by 11.0 offensive boards to the opposition, which has led to a virtually level margin in second-chance points and free-throws attempted. In their most recent meeting, a 116-109 affair in Northern Ohio which was both sides return to action following the All-Star Break, saw Mosely’s charges burn down Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse; the Magic shot a blistering 51.2% from the field, including 14-of-25 from downtown (56.0%), where they owned a +12 advantage, while forcing NINETEEN turnovers for a sizeable 28-15 advantage. Six different players scored in double-figures, led by Moritz Wagner with twenty-two points in just under twenty-five minutes, while his brother added fourteen. From a betting perspective, the Magic have been one of the most rewarding bets in the Association this season, posting 51-31 record against the spread (62.2%), aided heavily by a stellar start to the campaign, in which they covered FIFTEEN of their first eighteen games. Orlando has covered just three of their last eight meetings with Cleveland, with two of them coming this season.
Meanwhile, if there is a team in this series to be under pressure, then it is absolutely the Cavaliers (48-38, 4th in Eastern Conference) for a few different reasons. First and foremost, Cleveland snapped a four-year playoff drought last Spring in earning the fourth seed in the East, though were embarrassed by fifth-seeded New York in a gentlemen’s sweep despite owning homecourt advantage. In a series that was very much a throwback to the 90’s, (Head Coach) J.B. Bickerstaff’s troops were utterly confounded by the Knicks’s physicality and tenacity, as they were held to just 94.2 points on 44.9% shooting from the field, including 32.7% from beyond the arc, while being outrebounded by 8.2 boards, with 22.0 assists in comparison to committing 15.2 turnovers. While you can chalk much of their struggles up to inexperience, that is not the case this season, as the Cavs appeared to hunt for this particular matchup with the young Magic, for how else can you explain their inexplicable 110-120 defeat at home to the lowly Hornets in the season finale (much more on this affair in a bit)? A win over Charlotte would have moved them into the third seed, ensuring a matchup with Central Division rival Indiana, whom they split four meetings with this season, and were viewed a much more difficult matchup due to their high-flying attack. Orlando, on the other hand, are a lot younger and play at a much slower pace, which appears to be more favorable matchup for a team looking for redemption after year’s defeat. The final reason that Bickerstaff & Co are under the proverbial gun is that the outcome of this series, hell even this postseason run as a whole, will go a long way towards deciding the direction of this franchise. (All-Star Guard) Donovan Mitchell, who has been an undisputed hit since being acquired via trade from the Jazz two years ago, has been at the center of this revival in The Land, averaging 27.5 points on 47.5% shooting and 37.8% from three, along with 4.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.6 steals since 2022. However, he struggled mightily in that aforementioned series with the Knicks, shooting 43.3% and a dismal 28.9% from long-range, nearly as many turnovers (3.8) as assists (5.0). There is also the matter of his contract and playing future to be considered here too, folks. Mitchell (pictured below) has been perceived as a flight risk since he arrived in Northern Ohio, with the New York native linked to both of his hometown franchises as he enters the final year of his contract. Another early ousting in the playoffs could lead Bickerstaff and (General Manager) Koby Altman to decide that committing the future of the club to the 27-year-old is not in their best interest. The same goes for the twin tower approach featuring Jarret Allen and Evan Mobley. With the league as a whole having moved away from fielding multiple bigs at the same time, the Cavaliers have been an outlier in this regard, with the two 6’11” pillars anchoring one of the better defenses in the Association; Cleveland rank seventh in points allowed (110.2) and sixth in defensive rating (112.7). However, after a ridiculous 18-2 run heading into the All-Star Break, this has NOT been the same team during the second half of the campaign. Just 12-17 since the Break, the Cavs haven’t been nearly as potent offensively at 108.5 points (a 6.4-point dropoff) on 47.3% shooting and 37.9% from three, while shipping 112.1 points (a 2.9 increase) on 47.8% shooting and 39.5% from the perimeter. Granted, much of that period has seen Mitchell sidelined due to injury, missing all but eleven of those twenty-nine contests due to lingering knee pain.
When we last saw the Cavaliers, they opted to sit three starters, including Mitchell, in that aforementioned finale against the Hornets, who had no incentive to do anything other than playing out the string. Cleveland led 75-70 heading into the fourth quarter, where they were run off their own floor in a 20-36 period. Charlotte inexplicably morphed into the 2018 Warriors in shooting 12-of-15 (80.0%!!!) from the field, including a perfect 4-of-4 from beyond the arc, while netting 8-of-10 free-throws to boot. As for the hosts, they were decisively less efficient in shooting 8-of-22 (36.4%) in the stanza, including a miserable 1-of-10 from downtown (10.0%). Again, without Mitchell and fellow starters such as Darius Garland and Max Strus, it would be unfair to expect much of an offensive explosion from the Cavs, providing more evidence in their desire to matchup with the Magic instead of the Pacers. Even Mobley and Allen played less than twenty minutes apiece, combining for ten points and eleven boards. Again, Bickerstaff & Co clearly were NOT trying to win this game, which is a ballsy move for a franchise desperate to win their first playoffs series since 2019. Looking at this afternoon’s affair with Orlando, these teams split their four meetings during the regular season, with Cleveland’s shooting and playmaking in the Backcourt giving them the advantage. The Cavs shot a stellar 49.8% from the field and 39.6% from three in those contests, with Mitchell going off for 27.3 points on 44.3% shooting and 35.7% from the perimeter, along with 4.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists in the first three matchups. From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers weren’t nearly as rewarding against the spread as they were straight-up this season, posting a sub-.500 record of 38-42-2 in that regard, with just five covers in their last sixteen games. In fact, Cleveland has managed to cover back-to-back outings just ONCE since February 10th. On the injury front, we will have to keep an eye on the reports leading up to this afternoon’s series opener, for there are a number of different players on the mend for Bickerstaff, including (Guards) Sam Merril (Neck), Ty Jerome (Ankle), and the aforementioned Garland (Lower Back), along with (veteran Swingman) Caris LeVert (Knee) and (sharpshooting Forward) Dean Wade (Neck). With the exception of Jerome, who has been out of action for quite some time, the general opinion is that the rest of them are expected to suit up as Bickerstaff and his medical staff have been managing their respective minutes down the stretch in lieu of this postseason run.
Projected Outcome: Cavaliers 114, Magic 106
