3:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: Mavericks -2.5, Over/Under: 222.5
The opening round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs continues as we transition to the City of Angels, where the surging fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks meet the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers for the third time in five years, with the latest chapter taking place this afternoon from crypto.com Center. Momentum is such a prized commodity coming into the postseason, and you would be hard-pressed to find a team with more of it than the Mavericks (50-32, 5th in Western Conference), who have been one of the league’s very best over the last five weeks. Since March 7th, Dallas has been on a 16-4 tear, though we’re going to exclude those last two defeats seeing as how (Head Coach) Jason Kidd decided to rest virtually everyone after he and his troops learned of their playoff fate. So, with that in mind, the Mavs put together a sublime 18-game stretch in which they were outscoring opponents by a whopping 12.3 points per contest, shooting 49.6% from the field, including 36.8% from beyond the arc, along with 27.9 assists in comparison to committing 12.2 turnovers. However, it has been their defense that has been the most impressive during that stretch, relegating the opposition to just 105.9 points on 43.9% shooting and owning a +2.1 advantage on the glass. In many ways, this is the vision that Kidd and (General Manager) Nico Harrison had in mind when he pulled a blockbuster trade eighteen months ago for (perennial All-Star Guard) Kyrie Irving in an attempt to pair him with (MVP candidate) Luka Doncic. While that marriage failed to bear fruit as the Mavericks slumped down the stretch en route to missing the playoffs altogether, it has been a very different story in 2023-2024. Doncic (pictured alongside Irving below) has entered another stratosphere in posting career-highs in scoring a league-best 33.9 points, along with three-point percentage (38.2%) and assists (9.8), while Irving continues to be as good a complementary star that we’ve seen with 25.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 5.2 assists, with shooting splits of 49.7%/41.1%/90.5%. With that being said, the biggest difference between these Mavs and their predecessors is the supporting cast, which has been bolstered tremendously with the additions of (Rookie Center) Derek Lively II, (veteran Center) Daniel Gafford, and (versatile Forward) P.J. Washington, with the latter two figures acquired at the Trade Deadline. Between Lively and Gafford, Dallas now has the rebounding and shot-blocking that they have lacked in previous campaigns, while Washington has overcome a slow start to life in North Texas to become an indispensable member of the starting five. All these new faces have also helped this team play at a much faster pace than they have in recent years with Doncic at the center of it all. Given his dominance of the basketball, the Mavericks have long-been one of the most efficient offensive teams in the Association, though that was admittedly while performing at a veritable crawl. Since drafting the 25-year-old back in 2018, Dallas hasn’t ranked any higher than eighteenth in terms of pace (possessions per 48 minutes), including dead-last (95.4) and twenty-eighth (96.6) in the last two seasons. This campaign though, has been a revelation as Kidd has pushed his charges to get out and run, resulting in the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA (100.1), due in large part to Doncic getting into much better shape.
When we last saw the Mavericks, they clearly took their foot off the gas pedal as they lost their final two games of the regular season by a combined SIXTY-SEVEN points, the latter being an 86-135 drubbing at hands of the Thunder. Then again, this is precisely what you can expect when one team settles into their postseason positioning while the other is competing for the top seed in the west. Can you guess which one Dallas was? Just as he did in an 18-point loss at home to lowly Detroit, Kidd sat the bulk of his starters in the finale at Oklahoma City and it reflected in the final statistics. The visitors shot just 33.0% from the field, including a mere 8-of-29 from beyond the arc (20.5%), where they were outscored by eighteen points, while coughing up nearly as many turnovers (14) as assists (19). Again, this was to be expected when the likes of Doncic and Irving are sitting in street clothes, with (oft-used Backup Guard) Brandon Williams leading the team with twenty-two points in nearly thirty minutes off the bench. Looking at this afternoon’s matchup, the two teams have split their last ten meetings despite Dallas losing two of their three encounters this season. Of course, this postseason affair marks the third time in five years that they have crossed paths in the playoffs, with the Mavs meeting defeat each time. That’s not say that these tilts haven’t been entertaining, for it took at least six games to decide a victor, as Doncic proved to be a proverbial wrecking ball to the Clippers’ defense. Back in 2020, the Slovenian International announced himself to the world against two of the finest two-way players in the Association, averaging 31.0 points on 50.0% shooting, including 36.4% from downtown, along with 9.8 rebounds, 8.7 assists, and 1.2 steals. A year later, the sequel was even better than the original, as the Mavericks wasted a 3-2 lead in which the road team won every game save for Game Seven, which went the way of Los Angeles. For his troubles, Doncic was sublime in posting 35.7 points on 49.0% shooting, including 40.8% from three, 7.9 rebounds, 10.3 assists, and 1.3 steals. For those wondering how he has fared this season, it has been business as usual, eviscerating the Clips for 34.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 6.7 assists. From a betting perspective, the Mavericks have been almost as rewarding against the spread as they have been straight-up, posting a 48-34 record in that regard (58.5%), bolstered heavily by SIXTEEN covers in their last twenty games. On the injury front, Irving and Doncic were rested for the final two games due to respective ankle and hamstring soreness, though they are expected to be active for this afternoon’s trip to the City of Angels. As for the rest of the rotation, Washington (ankle), Gafford (elbow), Lively (knee), Maxi Kleber (back), ad Dante Exum (foot) are listed as questionable with various ailments.
Meanwhile, the Clippers (51-31, 4th in Western Conference) were at one point the hottest team in the Association, though have spent the last two months searching for a way to recapture that magic. After suffering a disappointing 3-7 start in which the team was adjusting to life following the blockbuster acquisition of (three-time Scoring Champion) James Harden, Los Angeles went on to put together a stunning 33-10 run heading into the All-Star Break vying for the top seed out West. During this stretch, the offense emerged as one of the most formidable in the league, averaging 119.4 points on an efficient 49.7% shooting from the field, including 39.9% from beyond the arc, with 26.5 assists in comparison to committing just 11.4 assists. Indeed, the Harden effect was very real for a talented high-percentage shooting team in dire need of a creator to facilitate the attack. In that regard, Harden (pictured below alongside teammates Kawhi Leonard and Paul George) appeared to be exactly what the doctor ordered for a franchise that had spent the last two years scouring the league for a quality Point Guard. On the season, the former MVP has averaged 16.6 points on 42.8% shooting, including 38.1% from three, along with 5.1 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 1.1 steals. The likes of Leonard and George have benefitted tremendously from his presence, with the former looking like his old self with 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.6 steals on shooting splits of 52.5%/41.7%/88.5%, while the latter has been nearly as good with 22.6 points on 47.1%/41.3%/90.7% shooting cross the board. Harden’s inclusion has also ensured that he and his teammates will be getting to the charity stripe often, ranking fifth in free-throws/field goals attempted ratio (.211), which basically means that they’re shooting a free-throw for every five field goals they attempt. With that being said, it appears that the honeymoon could already be over for this iteration of the Clippers, who have thus fallen off a proverbial cliff after the All-Star Break. Since February 22nd, (Head Coach) Ty Lue’s troops are barely treading water at 15-14, due in large part to that aforementioned offense becoming far-less efficient; during this period, Los Angeles has averaged 110.8 points on 47.9% shooting and 35.6% from downtown, with 24.8 assists opposed 12.4 turnovers. In the past, we’ve seen this group become a little too stagnant with their ball-movement and overreliance on jump shots, which appears to be the case here. It also hasn’t helped that both Harden and Leonard have been running on fumes, with the former looking slower than he did during his last venture into the postseason, while the latter’s checkered injury history (much more on that in a bit) has been cause for alarm.
When we last saw the Clippers, they too ended the regular season with a flurry of defeats as they opted to rest the bulk of their starters, culminating in a 105-116 loss at home to the Rockets. Just like his counterpart in this series, Lue sat all of his big guns for the third game in a row, with Los Angeles performing as one would expect without the likes of Leonard, Harden, and George. The hosts shot just 39.4% from the field, including 8-of-37 from beyond the arc (21.6%), while shipping SEVENTEEN offensive rebounds to the visitors, leading to a wealth of second-chance opportunities for Houston. (Emerging Backup swingman) Terance Mann led the way with twenty-four points on an efficient 10-of-14 shooting (71.4%), while four more players also scored in double-figures. Looking at this afternoon’s visit from the Mavs, the Clippers will be looking to rely upon their past experience dealing with Doncic & Co. Sure, they’ve been pushed to the breaking point in the past, but the most important thing is that they’ve managed to overcome the Slovenian sensation. With both rosters looking considerably different than they did in those aforementioned playoff encounters, we’ll shift towards examining their three meetings from this season, in which Los Angeles took two out of three. After getting hammered by eighteen points in Northern Texas back in early November, Lue & Co returned the favor with a 19-point victory at crypto.com Center later that month before earning a 120-111 triumph in at American Airlines Center in late December. Altogether the Clips shot much better overall (49.0%), but were at a serious disadvantage in defending the three (-15.0 3FG), though made up for it by bludgeoning them on the glass (+11.3), particularly on the offensive end where their 14.3 boards were their most against any single opponent. This heavily influenced their ability to get to the charity stripe, where they netted an average of 26.0 free-throws on 30.7 attempts (84.8%), 8.3 more per game than the Mavs. Leonard will be the key here, folks, for after performing well below his standards with 21.3 points on 44.9% shooting and 20.0% from three, his potential two-way dominance will be what ultimately lifts Los Angeles to the Western Semifinals. Of course, his health is ALWAYS a concern, particularly this time of year. Twice in the last three postseasons we’ve seen him unfortunately succumb to injury, with news that he’s been receiving knee injections to get him up to speed for today’s affair raising concern throughout Southern California. From a betting perspective, the Clippers haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread as they have been straight-up, posting a mediocre 38-44 mark in that regard (46.3%), leading to a 13-game disparity between the two. Furthermore, they have been lacking in this respect for a while now, failing to cover TWENTY-THREE of their last thirty-three games, managing to string together consecutive covers just twice since February 7th. On the injury front, it isn’t just Leonard dealing with pain in his extremities, but Harden as well, with the bearded one suffering from inflammation in his right foot, leaving both players as questionable for this afternoon’s opening salvo.
Projected Outcome: Mavericks 117, Clippers 112
