10:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Nuggets -7.5, Over/Under: 223.5
After an entertaining opening salvo, the 2024 NBA Playoffs continue as the desperate Los Angeles Lakers attempts to avoid falling into a familiar hole at the (reigning NBA Champion) Denver Nuggets, who in turn look to take a commanding 2-0 lead in Game Two of this first round matchup. At this point, there must be a serious sense of deja vu for the Lakers (47-35, 7th in Western Conference), who after getting swept in last May’s Western Conference Finals find themselves trailing the Nuggets in this opening series. In fact, Los Angeles has dropped NINE consecutive meetings with Denver dating back to last season, as (Head Coach) Darvin Ham’s troops simply cannot crack the proverbial code. In last Spring’s postseason affair, the momentum built upon upsetting the Grizzlies and Warriors in success came to screeching halt once they traveled to the Rocky Mountains; the Purple & Gold’s stifling defense fell apart as they shipped 118.0 points per game on 49.3% shooting from the field, including 40.3% from beyond the arc where they were outscored by an average margin 15.8 points. It was more of the same in their three contests during this past regular season, as the defending champs edged them convincingly in points (+10.0) on a ridiculous 53.2% shooting and 42.4% from downtown, where they again dumped them by an average margin of 9.0 points. It begs the question: what in the hell can these Lakers do to slow down the Nuggets? Consider this: Los Angeles played about as efficiently as they could offensively in those three matchups, shooting 48.1% from the field, 36.1% from three, and 73.6% from the charity stripe, and dished out 27.3 assists in comparison to committing a mere 8.3 turnovers (their second fewest against any single opponent), and STILL lost all three by eight or more points. With that in mind, we take a look back to Saturday night’s 103-114 loss at Ball Arena, in which the visitors led by as many as twelve points in the first half. (4-time MVP) LeBron James and (perennial All-Star) Anthony Davis combined for thirty-seven points on 14-of-21 shooting (66.6%), ten rebounds, and eight assists, while as a team they shot a blistering 55.8% from the floor yet led by only three points at intermission (60-57). Unfortunately, the second half was all Nuggets, as James & Co could not keep up their sublime shooting, netting a mere 41.7% of their shots the rest of the way, despite a continuously strong performance from Davis (pictured above alongside James), who finished with thirty-two points, fifteen rebounds, five assists, and four blocks. So, where did it all go wrong for the Lakers, you ask? Well, despite enjoying a 12-point advantage from the free-throw line, they were embarrassed once again from the perimeter (-21), while being made to pay in the paint (-10), in transition (-7), and points via turnovers (-6). Coming into Game Two, they must find a way to bolster their three-point shooting, which had emerged as a strength over the last month, because every time they miss, Denver is looking to run, and as good Ham’s charges are defensively in the halfcourt, they are NOT adept at stopping teams on the break. From a betting perspective, the Lakers have been mediocre against the spread, posting a 39-45 record (46.5%) thus far, with just two covers in their last six outings. In addition to losing each of the last nine meetings straight-up with the champs, Los Angeles is 2-6-1 against the spread over that span, including six straight spread defeats. On the injury front, Ham stated that (veteran Forward) Chrisitan Wood should finally return to action following knee surgery a month ago once the scene shifts to the City of Angels this weekend, though the status of (valuable defender) Jarred Vanderbilt is much murkier, as he is unlikely to return from a lingering foot injury that has sidelined him since February 1st until early May.
Meanwhile, nearly a year after winning their first NBA Championship in franchise history, the Nuggets (57-25, 2nd in Western Conference) have given us absolutely zero reason to think that they won’t emerge from the mighty Western Conference. In fact, there is a serious argument to be made that this current group is even better than their predecessors; Denver won four more games than they did a year ago, matching a franchise record post-merger, and have been a much stouter defensive team in relinquishing just 109.6 points per game (6th Overall) on 46.2% shooting (4th Overall), including 35.5% from beyond the arc (8th Overall), and 25.7 assists (9th Overall), all the while posting a defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) of 113.0 (8th Overall). (2-time MVP) Nikola Jokic is the betting favorite to take home those same honors for a third time in four years, nearly averaging a triple-double with 26.4 points on 58.3% shooting, 12.4 rebounds, and 9.0 assists, oftentimes operating as the facilitator of the offense, a Point Center if you like. The supporting cast around him is top-notch too, with (sharpshooters) Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. making opponents pay for overloading on Jokic (pictured above), with the former scoring 21.2 points on 48.1% shooting and a stellar 42.7% from three, while the latter has added 16.7 points on 48.4% shooting and 39.7% from long range. Speaking of Murray, he was an utter flamethrower in last Spring’s sweep of the Lakers, averaging 32.5 points on shooting splits of 52.7%/40.5%/95.0%, along with 6.3 boards, 5.3 dimes, and 2.8 steals. However, he wasn’t nearly as efficient in Saturday’s Game One, finishing with twenty-two points on just 9-of-24 shooting (37.5%), though did manage to make up for it in other ways with six rebounds, ten assists, and zero turnovers. Furthermore, the 27-year-old netted half as many treys (4-of-9) as the visitors did as a team. As we covered earlier, the Nuggets started relatively slowly in this one, trailing by as many twelve points early in the second quarter before cutting the deficit to three points at halftime. With that being said, the third period is when this affair really changed hands; (Head Coach) Mike Malone’s troops outscored Los Angeles 32-18 in this frame, shooting a blistering 13-of-22 from the field (59.1%) and 6-of-11 from downtown (54.5%), with ten assists opposed to no turnovers. Ironically, (former Laker) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was the key to the turnaround, pouring in all twelve of his points on a lethal 4-of-5 shooting from the perimeter (80.0%). When it was all said and done, all five starters logged twelve or more points, led by Jokic with thirty-two on 15-of-23 shooting (65.2%), twelve rebounds, seven assists, and a pair of steals. The hosts attempted TWENTY-THREE more field goals than the visiting side, thanks in large part to a 15-6 advantage in offensive rebounds, six of which came courtesy of (veteran Forward) Aaron Gordon, along with twelve takeaways, leading to fourteen points. From a betting perspective, the Nuggets weren’t nearly as rewarding against the spread as they were straight-up, posting a mediocre 39-42-2 record in that regard (48.2%). Granted, as reigning champions, they were favored more often than not, while routinely facing larger spreads. More than any team in the Association, Denver authored NINETEEN games that they managed to win without covering. That train of thought has NOT applied to their recent history with the Lakers, who they’ve beaten and covered against in SIX consecutive meetings dating back to last year’s Western Conference Finals. Interestingly, the underdog covered every single game of that series, though the pendulum has since swung back towards the favorite, which has been Malone & Co, in these last four affairs. Perhaps the public is finally catching on to that, as the Nuggets were favored by 6.5 point in Game One, their largest spread against Los Angeles since January of 2023, while tonight’s line currently sits at 7.5.
Projected Outcome: Nuggets 116, Lakers 109
