7:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Timberwolves -3.5, Over/Under: 212.5
The first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs marches onward, as the Phoenix Suns look to level the series tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who in turn attempt to take a commanding 2-0 lead before the scene shifts to the desert this weekend. It may sound hyperbolic, but the heat is on the Suns (49-33, 6th in Western Conference) to produce in the playoffs, particularly now that they are finally healthy following an inconsistent campaign in which they rounded into form around the All-Star Break. For the second time in six months, Phoenix dramatically altered the chemistry of the team, hiring (Head Coach) Frank Vogel and acquiring the services of (All-Star Guard) Bradley Beal to pair him alongside (fellow All-Stars) Kevin Durant and Devin Booker (pictured together above). Unfortunately, the NBA’s latest BIG 3 had a hard time staying healthy; the triumvirate of KD, Book, and Beal started just HALF (41 games) of the campaign, though all but four of them have come in the last forty-seven contests. As a result, they finished the regular season on a stellar 30-15 run, which ultimately lifted them out of the dreaded Play-In Tournament and into this first-round matchup with the Wolves, who they have owned of late, winning nine consecutive meetings. However, recent history had no bearing on the outcome of Saturday’s 95-120 drubbing in Minneapolis. A week after thrashing them in a 125-106 performance in the finale, Vogel & Co were put to the proverbial sword as the visitors were outplayed across the board, including three-pointers (-9), assists (-10), points via turnovers (-4), and fastbreak points (3). With that being said, the biggest difference came in the paint, where their lack of size was their undoing; the Suns were bludgeoned 34-52 in terms of paint points, while being outrebounded 28-52, shipping thirteen offensive rebounds leading to as many more field goal attempts for the Wolves. This was also an instance in which their lack of creativity on the offensive end hurt them. Durant, Booker, and Beal are lethal scorers indeed, but they aren’t natural playmakers for others, which has led to stretches of stagnant, isolation-heavy offense, which played right into the hands of the number one defense in the Association; Phoenix shot 44.0% from the field, but just 9-of-28 from beyond the arc (32.1%), with a scant THREE fastbreak points, and nearly as many turnovers (15) as assists (16). Durant went off for thirty-one points on an efficient 11-of-17 shooting (64.7%), but Booker and Beal were decisively less-impactful, combining for thirty-three points with the former struggling mightily on 5-of-16 shooting (31.3%). If they’re going to turn the tables and return home level, then they simply MUST move the basketball more, otherwise they’re making it all too easy for the Wolves to bite down on them. From a betting perspective, there was a stark contrast between the money line and spread for Phoenix, who was arguably the least-rewarding team in the Association in that latter regard, posting a nauseating 35-47-1 record (42.8%). That’s a -14 differential in SU/ATS wins and equates to a -15.18 margin in terms of units, meaning that if you bet them to cover this season, then you were probably left shaking your head. With that being said, their return to full strength over the last month has translated to more spread success, as Vogel’s outfit have covered ten of their last seventeen outings, though failed in doing so in Game One (+2.5), which snapped a streak of NINE consecutive covers versus Minnesota. While these Suns have been resilient of late, covering the spread seven straight times after a straight-up loss by ten or more points, they’ve been a very poor play in the playoffs as an underdog, dropping EIGHT such games in a row against the spread.
Meanwhile, Saturday’s 120-95 triumph in Game One was the ideal way for the Timberwolves (56-26, 3rd in Western Conference) to kick off this series, for they absolutely needed to make a statement given their run of form to conclude the regular season. Despite posting their best record in two decades and remaining in contention for the number one seed out west, Minnesota faltered down the stretch in which they 3-3 in their final six games, wasting a number of opportunities to clinch homecourt. Instead, (Head Coach) Chris Finch’s troops dropped down to the third seed, which set up what had been an unfavorable matchup with the Suns, who as we covered earlier had OWNED them of late, winning NINE consecutive encounters. With that being said, the Wolves had just recently received an injection of firepower with the healthy return of (veteran Center) Karl-Anthony Towns, who had missed a month recovering from a torn meniscus. One half of Finch’s unique Twin Towers, the seven-footer is the self-professed “Greatest Shooting Big Man in NBA History”. To his credit, he can torch the nylon, averaging 21.8 points this season and is a career 39.8% shooter from beyond the arc. When paired with (3-time Defensive Player of the Year) Rudy Gobert, this is easily the largest team in the Association, serving as the foundation for stifling defense. How good have the Timberwolves been on this end of the hardwood, you ask? VERY. They rank first in the NBA in a wealth of categories, including points allowed (106.5), defensive rating (109.0), field goal percentage (45.0%), and two-point percentage (50.6%). However, it is more than just the two big fellas, for Finch’s rotation is littered with length and athleticism, particularly in the form of (rising star) Anthony Edwards. Now in his fourth season in Minnesota, the 2020 number one overall pick is knocking on the door of superstardom after completing a career campaign including personal-bests in points (25.9), field goal percentage (46.1%), free-throw percentage (83.6%), and assists (5.1), with his infectious energy often leading to the kind of thunderous dunks that headline the nightly highlight reels. Oh, and he certainly showed up in Game One over the weekend, going toe-to-toe with Durant en route to totaling thirty-three points on 14-of-24 shooting (58.3%), including 4-of-8 from downtown (50.0%), nine rebounds, six assists, and two steals. As a team, the Wolves met little resistance on the offensive end, shooting 50.0% as a team, including 12-of-32 from three (37.5%) and 20-of-22 from the charity stripe (90.9%), with twenty-six assists opposed to committing fourteen turnovers. As we touched upon earlier, the hosts owned a clear advantage on the glass (+24), due in large part to the work that Gobert put in; the towering Frenchman logged sixteen rebounds, six of the offensive variety, along with fourteen points, while Towns added another seven boards and nineteen points. From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves weren’t nearly as rewarding this season against the spread as they were straight-up, posting a mediocre 41-41-1 record thus far, which parlays to a 16-game difference between the two marks. With that in mind, they weren’t as damaging to the betting public as their opponent tonight, losing a total of 3.73 units on the whole of the campaign. A big reason for their current standing in the eyes of the public has been their form of late, which barring their triumph in Game One, hasn’t been great by any means; Minnesota is just 4-8 against the spread in their last twelve games overall, a run that included a pair of SU/ATS defeats to Phoenix.
Projected Outcome: Suns 112, Timberwolves 108
