7:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: 76ers -4.5, Over/Under: 203.5
The 2024 NBA Playoffs march onward tonight in the City of Brotherly Love, as the seventh-seeded Philadelphia 76ers desperately try to get back into this series against the second-seeded New York Knicks, who are riding high off the emotion of Monday night’s emotional walk-off victory. Given that the rest of the East behind Boston appears to be in chaos, there is a growing sense of confidence in the Knicks (50-32, 2nd in Eastern Conference), who appear to be the most stable commodity left in that half of the bracket. Winners of fifteen of their final twenty-two games, New York has been playing at a postseason level of intensity for nearly two months now, as they secured their best record since the 2012-2013 campaign, which was coincidentally the last time that they entered the playoffs seeded this high. More so than any other team in the league, this group embodies the personality of their Head Coach, Tom Thibodeau; these Knickerbockers are rough, tough, and completely fine with “playing in the mud” as Thibs so eloquently puts it, operating at the slowest pace (95.2 possessions per 48 minutes) and relinquishing the second-fewest points (108.2) in the NBA. Further playing into this narrative is the triumvirate of Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and Donte DiVincenzo, who won a National Championship together at Villanova, together exhibiting a beautifully rugged chemistry that can only be born on the collegiate level, combining for 54.0 points, 15.6 rebounds, 13.5 assists, and 3.1 steals. After taking Game One over the weekend (111-104), The Knicks sent Madison Square Garden into a frenzy in the waning moments of Game Two, a dramatic 104-101 finish worthy of Broadway. Trailing 96-101 with 0:47 left in regulation, Brunson pulled the hosts within two points via a three-pointer, leading to a wild inbound sequence in which Hart steals the basketball, dishes it out to DiVincenzo (pictured above), who misses a 24-footer, only for (towering Center) Isaiah Hartenstein to secure the offensive rebound, with the rock making its way back to DiVincenzo, who would not miss his second attempt from downtown. Now leading 102-101, Thibodeau’s troops stifled the visitors at the rim, obtained the rebound, and were fouled to stop the clock, as (versatile Forward) O.G. Anunoby calmly netted both free-throws to increase their advantage to three points with six seconds left to play. Philadelphia managed to get a decent look from three, though the ball harmlessly fell to the hardwood, leading to a commanding 2-0 lead for the home denizens of the Big Apple. This affair was all about the Villanova trio, who posted a cumulative sixty-four points on 20-of-55 shooting (36.3%), including 9-of-21 from beyond the arc (42.8%) and 15-of-18 from the charity stripe (83.3%), along with twenty-seven rebounds, twelve assists, and four steals. From a betting perspective, despite their heroics in Game Two, the Knicks do NOT hold the public’s favor coming into tonight’s matchup, with only 22% of all bets placed being on the team from Gotham. However, the percentage of total money being wagered has been far more level, as roughly 47% of green is siding with New York. On the season, Thibodeau’s troops are one of the few teams that have turned a profit, posting a 46-37-1 record thus far (55.4%), equating to a net profit in the black (+4.82 units). Since March 3rd, this is a team that is 14-9-1 against the spread, though they have failed to cover three of the last four contests. Furthermore, the Knickerbockers have struggled of late in the postseason when receiving points from the oddsmakers, owning a 1-4 mark versus the spread over their last five playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5 points, which is the case tonight. On a side note, the Over has been a popular play in this scenario, with six straight games going over the projected total when they are an underdog. Looking ahead, it should be noted that after winning the first two games of a series, the Knicks are 15-1 in all playoff series, with the only defeat coming at the hands of the Michael Jordan-led Bulls back in the 1993 Eastern Conference Finals. Historically in best-of-seven series, New York has gone on to sweep their opponent on two occasions after winning the first two games.
Meanwhile, as has often been the case for the 76ers (47-35, 7th in Eastern Conference), this season has been nothing short of dramatic. After blowing a 3-2 lead in last Spring’s Eastern Semifinals against the Celtics, the franchise parted ways with (former Head Coach) Doc Rivers and eventually replaced him with (2019-2020 Coach of the Year and NBA Champion) Nick Nurse, all the while dealing with latest saga surrounding (three-time Scoring Champion) James Harden, who demanded to be traded after being acquired just eighteen months earlier due to a falling out with (Lead Executive) Daryl Morey. After months of speculation, Philadelphia sent the bearded one packing in a blockbuster deal with the Clippers three games into the campaign. With all that being said, the Sixers got off to a sensational 22-10 start on the back of (reigning MVP) Joel Embiid and (newly-minted Most Improved Player) Tyrese Maxey, who flourished in Harden’s absence. Unfortunately, the big fella suffered a torn lateral meniscus in his left knee, sidelining him for over two months, in which his teammates struggled to remain afloat (11-18). Thankfully, Embiid (pictured above) returned on April 2nd, leading Philly to seven consecutive victories, following by a narrow win over Miami in the Play-In to set up this first-round affair with New York. However, while the Knicks are a FAR better matchup for Nurse & Co than the Celtics, you wouldn’t know it by how this series has played out thus far. In these two losses, the 76ers have been getting pummeled on the glass (-24), particularly on the offensive end (-16), which has given the Knicks a wealth of second-chance opportunities. Speaking of offensive boards and second chances, those commodities were fatal for Philadelphia on Monday night, as their inability to secure the glass led to New York’s timely heroics. Granted, there was plenty of controversy around the that fateful sequence, as Maxey appeared to be fouled as he lost possession of the basketball following the initial inbound, a notion that was cemented upon later review by league offices. Embiid and Maxey combined for sixty-nine points on 24-of-51 shooting (47.0%) and 7-of-20 from three (35.0%), nineteen rebounds, and sixteen assists, though the rest of the rotation struggled immensely with just thirty-two points on 12-of-33 shooting (36.3%). Clearly disappointed with the outcome of an affair that they led by as many as eight points late, Embiid voiced in opinion after the game, stating that the no-foul call was “!@#$ing irresponsible” that expressed his confidence in that he and his teammates are the “better team” and “will win the series”. Then again, what else is he supposed to say, folks? From a betting perspective, the public absolutely LOVES the 76ers in tonight’s matchup, with 78% of all bets placed favoring the home side. As we stated earlier, the total volume of money that is being wagered is a far more even, though Philadelphia still commands a 53% share of green. On the season, Nurse’s troops have been one of the most bankable teams in the Association, with a sterling 50-34-1 record against the spread (59.4%), which is two games better than their straight-up mark, all the while equating to a welcome profit margin of +11.45 units (2nd Overall). Again, this is the Embiid factor at play, folks; the Sixers are 31-10 against the spread when he starts, accounting for 62.0% of their total covers this year. Furthermore, after a midseason lull that coincided with the big fella’s absence due that aforementioned knee injury, Philly has since covered FIFTEEN of their last nineteen contests. Looking at some other trends, this is a team that is 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight home games, while covering seven straight games following a straight-up loss, and not to mention six consecutive covers as a home favorite, which are all the case tonight. Oh, and that comment that we made about the Over being en vogue for New York also applies to Philadelphia, who have seen six straight games go over the projected total when they have enjoyed two days of rest, which is also the case in this Game Three. Historically, the 76ers have NEVER come back to win a series in which they lost the first two games (0-19), setting up a harrowing scenario for Nurse & Co tonight.
Projected Outcome: 76ers 110, Knicks 102
