5:30 PM EST, ESPN – Line: Pacers -5.5, Over/Under: 222.5
The 2024 NBA Playoffs continue as the scene of this first-round affair between the third-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and the sixth-seeded Indiana Pacers shifts to Gainbridge Fieldhouse for a crucial Game Three with the series level at one game apiece. My, oh my, wat a dramatic season it has been for the Bucks (49-33, 3rd in Eastern Conference), who after standing as one of the most consistently stable and successful franchises in the league have been mired in chaos for months now. Following their inexplicable first-round loss to Miami last Spring, becoming only the fourth team to suffer such a fate, Milwaukee opted to shake things up, firing (longtime Head Coach) Mike Budenholzer and replacing him with (former Raptors Assistant) Adrian Griffin, before stunning the basketball world and acquiring the services of (7-time All-NBA Guard) Damian Lillard. The plan was thus: pair Lillard, who was desperate to finally win a championship, alongside (two-time MVP and 2021 Finals MVP) Giannis Antetokounmpo, while Griffin implemented new ideas and tactics to spice up a defense that had become stagnant. Unfortunately, the experiment (as originally constituted) would last just forty-three games, as Griffin was unceremoniously fired despite owning a 30-13 record after repeated clashes with his players, and ultimately replaced by none other than Doc Rivers, who was fired by the 76ers over the summer. Needless to say, all this change has not been good for these deer, who finished the regular season a mediocre 17-19 under Rivers’ (pictured above) watch. And what have they received for their troubles, you ask? A first-round matchup with the Pacers, who beat them in four of their five meetings this year, oftentimes running them off the hardwood. Making matters worse is the sudden absence of Antetokounmpo, who had been managing strained calf muscle in recent weeks, raising a plethora of red flags across the state of Wisconsin. 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.1 blocks is awfully hard to replace, though that is the task for Rivers & Co, who trying to buy as much time as possible for the Greek International to return to action. After pulling an 109-94 upset, if you will, in Game One thanks to thirty-five points from Lillard, the Bucks were blown out in Game Two, a 108-125 thumping that was reminiscent of their many defeats from the regular season. Despite only trailing by five points at halftime, the second half was a very different story; Milwaukee was outscored 53-65 on 60.5% shooting from the field, with Indy doubling them up from the perimeter (6-of-15 3FG) and dishing out TWENTY assists in comparison to committing just three turnovers. Simply put, you won’t win many playoff games when you’re unable to stymie your opponent’s ball-movement in such a manner, but this has been one of the persistent issues that Rivers has tried to correct since arriving. As prolific as he is offensively, Lillard, who matched his previous output with another thirty-four points, is NOT a good defensive player, while neither is Malik Beasley, who has been relegated to the bench in favor of (veteran defensive stopper) Patrick Beverley, who in turn offers very little on the offensive end. From a betting perspective, the public appears to have lost confidence in the Bucks as the scene shifts to Indianapolis, with only 20% of all bets and 32% of the total money wagered tonight siding with these deer. On the season, Milwaukee was one of the least bankable teams in the Association, posting a 36-48 record against the spread (42.9%), equating to a disappointing profit margin of -15.27 units. Since March 21st, Rivers’ troops have covered just FIVE of their last sixteen games including the playoffs, while this particular matchup with the Pacers has seen them go 2-6-1 versus the spread in their last nine encounters, seven of which coming this season. Hell, that’s been the case in general since Rivers took over back in late January, with the Bucks covering eighteen of thirty-eight contests (.473). Simply put, this team remains a work in progress, particularly without the services of Antetokounmpo, who will likely miss the entirety of this series due to that aforementioned strained calf. At this point, this is very much a business decision for all parties involved, as the franchise inked the Greek Freak to a mammoth three-year, $175.8 million extension back in the Summer, and simply cannot afford to risk a Kevin Durant-esque injury that could reverberate for years to come. Historically, when the Bucks find themselves level after the first two games of a series, they are 10-12 all-time, though it should be noted that they have never beaten the Pacers in the playoffs, losing in successive first rounds back in 1999 and 2000.
Meanwhile, the Pacers (47-35, 6th in Eastern Conference) find themselves back in the Playoffs after a three-year drought as (Head Cach) Rick Carlisle and (General Manager) Kevin Pritchard have successfully rebuilt the roster after some lean years in Indianapolis. Indeed, this has long been a franchise that has been hellbent against bottoming out and starting from scratch, even after suffering FIVE consecutive exits in the first round. Like many smaller market franchises, the key for Indiana has long been drafting and developing, which they are proving to have excelled at given their rotation is comprised of seven different players under aged twenty-seven years or younger, led by (All-Star Point Guard) Tyrese Haliburton, who has grown into one of the NBA’s premier floor generals in this, his fourth season in the league. The 23-year-old has piloted a group that is true to their moniker; the Pacers operate at the second-fastest pace in the Association (101.7 possessions per 48 minutes), while ranking first in scoring (123.3), aided heavily by the fourth-most fastbreak points (16.6) To his credit, Haliburton (pictured above) leads the NBA with 10.9 assists per game while scoring 20.1 points to boot, with five other players scoring in double-figures. It’s clear that both Carlisle and Pritchard felt that the rotation was ready for a high-profile veteran import, which they added in the form of (2020 NBA Champion) Pascal Siakam in a deal with the Raptors at the Trade Deadline. Siakam has been the ideal two-way threat that Indiana had been looking for, leading the team with 21.3 points per game on an efficient 54.9% shooting, along with 7.8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. The veteran decisive in that aforementioned 125-108 triumph in Game Two, totaling THIRTY-SEVEN points on 16-of-23 shooting (69.6%), eleven rebounds, and six assists. Haliburton added a dozen points and assists apiece, while the dup of (Forwards) Myles Turner and Andrew Nembhard combined for forty-two points, eleven rebounds, nine assists, and three blocks. This performance echoed the Pacers’ previous ownership of the Bucks, as they led by as many as twenty-three points, shooting a staggering 55.6% from the field and 16-of-36 from downtown (44.4%), while assisting on THIRTY-EIGHT of their fifty field goals, in addition to edging the hosts 14-5 in transition and 52-36 in the paint. For those wondering, Haliburton & Co led the Association at 30.8 assists per game, but when they reach this threshold of ball-movement they are 8-2 this season. Even given their advantage over Milwaukee, whom they are now 6-2 against this season, this level of fluidity is egregious; Indiana dished out 28.8 assists in their five regular season meetings en route to averaging a staggering 128.8 points on 48.2% shooting. From a betting perspective, the public is squarely backing the Pacers both in this series and in this evening’s affair, with 80% of all wagers placed riding on Indiana. Carlisle’s troops were nearly as good against the spread as they were straight-up, posting a solid 45-37-2 record in that regard (54.8%), equating to a solid if unspectacular profit margin in the black (+3.91 units). Since March 5th, this is a team that hasn’t suffered consecutive non-covers in twenty-two straight games, a stretch in which they are 13-9 versus the spread (.590). Furthermore, there are a number of trends that are working for an against Indy, including four straight home covers against opponents with losing road records, along with a stellar 7-1 mark versus the spread when playing on at least two days of rest, which is the case tonight. However, they are now 1-8-1 against the spread in their last ten first-round playoff games, with Tuesday night’s victory serving as the lone win. Historically, after splitting the first two games of a series, the Pacers are 8-13 all-time, including three consecutive defeats dating back to the 2014 Eastern Conference Finals.
Projected Outcome: Pacers 126, Bucks 112
