3:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Thunder -1.5, Over/Under: 207.5
The 2024 NBA Playoffs continue as we head to the Big Easy, where the west’s top-seed, the Oklahoma City Thunder, look to take a commanding 3-0 lead against the eighth-seeded New Orleans Pelicans, who desperately cling to hopes of survival without their biggest gun. Arguably the best story in the Association this season, the Thunder (57-25, 1st in Western Conference), have come A LONG way, improving by a whopping SEVENTEEN games and clinching the number one seed in the mighty West. Indeed, (Head Coach) Mike Daigneault and (General Manager) Sam Presti have done a tremendous job of drafting and developing over the past few years, with the fruits of their labor all blooming together. One of the youngest teams in the league with NINE different players in the rotation aged 25-years old or younger. Led by (MVP finalist) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander alongside (Rookie Center) Chet Holmgren and (emerging Forward) Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City have been a joy to watch; offensively, they rank third in points (120.1), field goal percentage (49.9%), and offensive rating (119.5), as well as first in three-point percentage (38.9%), while pacing the NBA in both steals (8.5) and blocks (6.6). This was all readily apparent in Wednesday’s lopsided 124-92 victory, in which the hosts jumped all over New Orleans from the opening tip, making up for the anxious performance they offered in Game One. Daigneault’s troops shot a blistering 59.0% from the field, including 14-of-29 from beyond the arc (48.3%), where they outscored them by a whopping TWENTY-ONE points. Furthermore, they actually outrebounded the much larger Pelicans (37-35) and edged them in the paint to boot (48-46), while manufacturing the visitor’s eighteen turnovers into another twenty-two points. Gilgeous-Alexander (pictured above alongside Holmgren) led the charge with thirty-three points on 13-of-19 shooting (68.4%) and 3-o-5 from downtown (60.0%), three rebounds, five assists, and a pair of steals. Holmgren and Williams combined for an additional forty-seven points on an efficient 19-of-30 shooting (63.3%), twelve boards, and eight dimes. Even the likes of (fellow starters) Luguentz Dort and Josh Giddey got into the action, with fifteen and thirteen points respectively as every member of the starting five reached double-figures. From a betting perspective, the public appear to be entirely convinced in the Thunder’s prospects following Wednesday’s rout, as a whopping 99% of all bets placed on this matchup are in favor SGA & Co, while 86% of all the money wagered thus far has followed suit. Oklahoma City has been a solid play throughout the campaign against the spread, posting a 48-36 record in that regard, equating to a net profit of 7.64 units. It also helps that they are one of the hottest teams versus the spread too, with FIVE covers in their last six outings following a drought of just three covers in fourteen games. Interestingly, coming into this series, the road team had won seven consecutive meetings and covered eight of them in a row. In a historical sense, since moving to Oklahoma City back in 2008, this is a franchise that is unbeaten (4-0) after winning the first two games of a series. Furthermore, teams that get off to a 2-0 start have gone on to win a staggering 93.5% of all best-of-seven series, owning a record of 273-19.
Meanwhile, desperation must be setting in for the Pelicans (49-33, 8th in Western Conference), who after escaping the Play-In without the services of (All-Star Forward) Zion Williams, sidelined once again after suffering a strained hamstring at the climax of last week’s first leg of the postseason tourney, have earned an unenviable matchup with the top-seeded Thunder. We’ll get into Williams’ injury a bit more shortly, but it is never ideal to head into a playoff series without a guy who has averaged 22.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, let alone one who is a 6’6″, 284-pound wrecking ball. With that being said, New Orleans exhibited what they are capable of even without Zion, pushing Oklahoma City to the brink in Game One, a 92-94 loss at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Despite shooting just 38.5% from the field, (Head Coach) Willie Green’s troops used their superior length, size, and physicality to harass the Thunder throughout the affair, relegating them well below their lofty standards on 43.5% shooting and 10-of-32 from beyond the arc (31.3%). Furthermore, they manhandled them on the glass (52-44), particularly on the offensive end where they secured EIGHTEEN boards, which led to a wealth of easy, second-chance opportunities. Unfortunately, these birds were completely unable of replicating that performance in Game Two; despite shooting much better (45.2%), so did the hosts (by a wide margin at that), many of the things that worked on Sunday betrayed them on Wednesday. The Pels lost both the rebounding and paint battles, while struggling from the perimeter (7-of-26 3FG) and utterly failing to take care of the basketball (-9 on turnovers), which led to a -8 differential in fast break points. After erupting for twenty-one points, four rebounds, and two assists in Game One (versatile Swingman) Trey Murphy was nowhere to be found in this one, finishing with just eight points on 3-of-8 shooting (37.5%), while (veteran sharpshooter) C.J. McCollum ended up with fifteen points but logged more turnovers (4) than three-pointers (1-of-5 3FG). However, the silver lining in this defeat was the reappearance of (former All-Star) Brandon ingram, who after looking largely out of rhythm in his return from a knee injury that claimed twelve straight games. Ingram (pictured above) could muster just twelve points on 5-of-17 shooting (29.4%) on Sunday, only to look much more engaged on Wednesday with eighteen points on 5-of-10 shooting (50.0%), four rebounds, three assists, and a steal and block apiece. More importantly, he was 8-of-8 from the charity stripe, which is a good sign that he’s getting more aggressive and willing to absorb contact in drives to the rim. From a betting perspective, the Pelicans have also been a profitable side, albeit a much smaller one than their opponent this afternoon, posting a 45-40-1 record against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 0.91 units. Furthermore, Wednesday night’s loss snapped a solid run versus the spread (5-3). On the injury front, as we touched upon earlier, the situation with Williamson is murky at best, with his tender hamstring likely to keep him on the shelf for another week at the least, or in other words, the rest of this series, however long it may last. Needless to say, this is a crushing loss for the Pelicans and a player who had appeared to finally turn the corner following a disastrous run of injuries; Zion had missed 135 games over the last two seasons due to an assortment of lower-leg maladies, though managed to start a career-high SEVENTY contests in 2023-2024. Historically, this is a franchise (going back to their days as the Hornets) that has NEVER rallied back from an 0-2 deficit, losing all five series that fit those criteria, which includes a sweep to the top-seeded Warriors back in 2015.
Projected Outcome: Thunder 110, Pelicans 104
