7:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Celtics -13.5, Over/Under: 199.5
The 2024 NBA Playoffs could see another casualty claimed tonight, as the top-seeded Boston Celtics attempt to put their first-round matchup with the eighth-seeded Miami Heat to rest and move onward to the Eastern Conference Semifinals in this Game Five from TD Garden. Before we get to the shamrocks, we’d like to take a moment to give the Heat (46-36, 8th in Eastern Conference) their due respect. No team has proven to be a bigger pain in the ass when they are perceived to be shorthanded or in a disadvantageous position. Remember, it was a year ago in which (Head Coach) Erik Spoelstra’s troops survived the Play-In Tournament and went on to upset the both the Bucks, Knicks, and Celtics in succession, becoming only the second eighth seed to reach the NBA Finals. Fastforward twelve months, and once again, Miami was forced to navigate through the Play-In in order to qualify for the Playoffs, though this time they found themselves without the services of (perennial All-Star) Jimmy Butler, who suffered an untimely MCL sprain in his right knee, shelving him for the foreseeable future. With that being said, the team managed to beat the Bulls in the second Play-In affair, setting up a rematch with Boston, who they encountered in each of the last two Eastern Conference Finals. Despite stunning the crowd at TD Garden in Game Two, this series has gone about as expected for the Heat; the reigning East Champions have averaged just 94.3 points on 44.5% shooting thus far, while getting hammered on the glass (-20) and edged at the charity stripe (-20). Without Butler, along with (veteran Guard) Terry Rozier, whom the club added at the Trade Deadline in an effort to add more creativity and firepower to the attack, Miami simply doesn’t have enough weapons to outduel an opponent that for all intents and purposes is much more formidable than they have been in their previous encounters. (2021-2022 Sixth Man of the Year) Tyler Herro (pictured above) erupted for twenty-four points in Game Two, while (versatile Forward) Bam Adebayo continues to play a multitude of roles on both ends of the hardwood, but it just hasn’t been enough. In their three losses within this series, Spoelstra & Co have been outscored by FIFTY-FOUR points overall and FIFTY-ONE points from beyond the arc, while being edged by TWENTY-NINE points off turnovers. Essentially, it took a ridiculous 23-of-43 performance from three (53.5%) just to take a single game from the shamrocks. It was more of the same in Sunday’s 88-102 defeat, a low-scoring affair in which their sting defense held the visitors to 41.9% shooting, twenty-one assists, and forty-six points in the paint. Unfortunately, Miami was outscored by FIFTEEN points from three, by eight points in transition, and by seven points from the free-throw line, while lagging behind in points off turnovers (-10) with a disappointing seventeen assists to boot. All five starters scored in double-figures, with Adebayo and Herro combining for forty-four points on 19-of-39 shooting (48.7%%), twenty-one rebounds, and nine assists, but the rest of the depleted rotation could muster a miserable 34.0% shooting and 6-of-24 from long-range (25.0%). From a betting perspective, the Heat have barely kept their heads above water when it comes to covering the spread, posting a mediocre 43-42-3 mark in that regard, equating to a net loss of 2.91 units. This is a team that has bounced back from defeat in a profitable manner, covering eight of their last nine games following a straight-up loss. Despite running an even race with Boston in the past, Miami has lost six of seven meetings since last May’s Eastern Conference Finals, though have managed to cover three of them along the way. On the injury front, it isn’t just Butler and Rozier who are out of action tonight in Beantown, but also (productive Rookie) Jaime Jaquez, who suffered a strained right hip flexor in Sunday’s defeat. The UCLA alum has become an integral part of Spoelstra’s rotation, averaging 11.9 points on 48.9% shooting, 3.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.0 steal, in 28.2 minutes per contest this season. Historically, this is a franchise that is 1-6 all-time in series when they find themselves trailing 1-3, with their only triumph coming against the Knicks during the heat (pun intended) of their bitter feud of the late 1990s.
Meanwhile, the Celtics (64-18, 1st in Eastern Conference) are now one game away from advancing to a seventh Conference Semifinal in eight years, needing only to take care of business against a severely depleted foe in order to do so. As we stated earlier, this series has third consecutive postseason meeting with the Heat has played out almost entirely as expected. Whereas each of their previous two encounters with Miami went the distance, this third chapter in one of the NBA’s best modern rivalries hasn’t come close to being as thrilling as its predecessors. Apart from a 101-111 loss in Game Two that required a 33-point edge from three to beat them, Boston has dominated this series, with all three of their victories coming by 14+ points. As is often the case, the money ball has served as the barometer of success for (Head Coach) Joe Mazzulla’s charges, with this series being no different; the shamrocks are 59-of-155 (38.1%) from beyond the arc thus far, owning a +18 advantage overall in the series, though are a commanding +51 in their three victories. After knocking down twenty-two treys in Game One, they’ve been held below fifteen of them in each of the other chapters, as they find other ways to in. They’ve put their superior size and length to good use on the glass (+21) in their three wins, while exploiting Miami’s lack of playmaking in the halfcourt, with a 30-point advantage off turnovers in Games Three and Four. It also helps that they’ve received some truly sublime individual performances to boot. (All-NBA Forward) Jayson Tatum’s triple-double in the opener set the tone in this series, while (veteran Swingman) Derrick White was the key to Sunday evening’s 102-88 victory. Typically associated with doing a lot of the dirty work, Whie (pictured above) whose tip-in at the buzzer stole a game in Miami during last May’s Eastern Conference Finals, channeled his inner Larry Bird in this one, totaling a playoff career-high THIRTY-EIGHT points on 15-of-26 shooting (57.7%), including 8-of-15 from three (53.3%), four rebounds, three assists, and as many blocks. As it turned out, that performance was necessary given the loss of a certain big fella (much more on that in a bit), as the rest of the rotation was mediocre at best, shooting 21-of-60 from the field (35.0%) and 6-of-22 from downtown (27.2%). From a betting perspective, the Celtics have been marginally better than the Heat when it comes to the spread, posting a 44-38-4 record in that regard, equating to a narrow profit margin of just 2.0 units. Of course, the reason that there is a 20-game disparity between their straight-up success in comparison to the spread, is because no team in the Association has been a favorite of 10+ points more so than Boston; this is a team that has been favored by double-digits THIRTY-FIVE times (20-13-2 ATS). Games Three and Four saw them cover back-to-back games for the first time in fifteen games, which plays into the trend of covering just one of their last six outings following a cover (1-4-1 ATS). On the injury front, the Celtics were dealt a potentially major blow with the absence of (veteran Center) Kristaps Porzingis, who left Sunday’s tilt due to soreness in his right Achilles. While the towering Latvian proclaimed that he should be good following Game Four, reports out of Boston are saying otherwise; Porzingis is expected to miss several games with what is being called a calf strain, which should raise some red flags in Beantown given his checkered injury history. Since missing the entire 2018-2019 campaign due to a torn ACL, the 28-year-old has participated in 60+ games just once, missing twenty-five games this season. The seven-footer has been a boon since coming to Boston in a 3-team trade last Summer, averaging 20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.9 blocks on stellar shooting splits of 51.6%/37.5%/85.8% and is a HUGE piece of Mazzulla’s attack. From a historic perspective, the Celtics have taken care of business when they’ve owned a 3-1 advantage, owning a perfect 27-0 record in all series in which they held such a lead.
Projected Outcome: Celtics 108, Heat 92
