9:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: 76ers -3.5, Over/Under: 200.5
The 2024 NBA Playoffs return to the City of Brotherly Love tonight as the seventh-seeded Philadelphia 76ers attempt to do something that they have never done in franchise history as they look to force a decisive Game Seven this weekend against the second-seeded New York Knicks, who are simply looking to take care of business and advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Coming into this Game Six, the pressure is on the Knicks (50-32, 2nd in Eastern Conference) to finally put this series to rest and move on to a second consecutive Conference Semifinal, particularly given that they stand to potentially earn some rest ahead of their next opponent. With that being said, taking your eye off the proverbial ball can prove fatal, as was the case in Tuesday night’s shocking 106-112 defeat at home. With an opportunity to close out the series, New York appeared primed to do so in front of an absolutely electric crowd at Madison Square Garden, only to let the outcome slip between their fingers in the cruelest of manners. Leading 96-90 with just 0:28 left on the clock, the hosts inexplicably conceded a 4-point play to Philadelphia’s Tyrese Maxey (we’ll get to him shortly), which in turn led to the visitors fouling Josh Hart to preserve the remaining time. However, the versatile Guard missed the first free-throw, setting the table for the Sixers to draw even. After netting the second attempt, Maxey barreled right downcourt and drained yet another triple, tying the affair at 97-97 with one second left to play. (All-Star Guard) Jalen Brunson would get a contested midrange look as time expired, but was blocked nonetheless, forcing overtime. From there (Head Coach) Tom Thibodeau’s charges were bested 9-15 in the extra period, shooting just 3-of-10 from the field (30.0%), with a pair of turnovers and zero assists. In the end, the Knicks were made to pay for their long-gestating stagnancy on the offensive end of the hardwood. Simply put, they had been surviving off the brilliance of Brunson (pictured below) who has been averaging an insane 42.0 points over the last three games, along with their dominance on the offensive glass affording them easy second-chance opportunities. While Brunson erupted again for forty points, the team as a whole shot 10-of-36 from three (27.8%) and 16-of-24 from the charity stripe (66.7%), missing EIGHT free-throws. Furthermore, New York was held below twenty assists for the second consecutive contest, while their own mistakes (15 turnovers for 18 points) magnified their shooting woes. Oh, and Tuesday’s loss was the first time in this series in which they were beaten on the boards (40-46), securing just six offensive rebounds serving as the low-water mark for this matchup. Needless to say, this is the kind of defeat that leave some serious emotional scars, leaving us all to wonder if the tide has truly shifted in this series or if those developments were little more than bump in the proverbial road to the Eastern Semifinals.
From a betting perspective, the Knicks may have lost some faith from the public, with roughly 46% of all wagers placed on denizens of the Big Apple, while 38% of the money is currently siding with New York. Thus far, Thibodeau’s troops remain one of the better bets in the Association, particularly from a spread POV where they have posted a solid 47-39-1 record, equating to a net profit of 3.73 units. However, the last few weeks has seen these Knickerbockers hit a bit of a dry spell in that regard, logging just two covers over their last seven games. With that being said, this is a team that been rather profitable when receiving points from the oddsmakers, owning a 7-3 mark versus the spread as an underdog. On the injury front, (Forwards) Julius Randle (shoulder) and Bojan Bogdanovic (wrist) will miss the remainder of the campaign due to various maladies, though both of those absences have been the status quo for a while now. The more pressing potential loss is that of (veteran Center) Mitchell Robinson, who is dealing with a sprained left ankle and is listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s affair in Philadelphia. The seven-footer has frequently drawn the assignment of guarding the Sixers’ Joel Embiid (much more on him in a bit) to mixed results, though he has recently drawn the ire of the team’s fanbase given that he was the one who fouled Maxey on that crucial 4-point play that helped push Game Five into overtime. In 21.3 minutes of action, Robinson has averaged 3.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.0 steal, and 1,5 blocks in this series thus far. Historically, the Knicks have NOT fared well in Game Sixes when leading 3-2, closing out said series just three times in ten tries, with their last victory in such an affair occurring back in 2013, a first-round triumph over the Celtics.
Meanwhile, it was only right that fortune favored the 76ers (47-35, 7th in Eastern Conference) on Tuesday night, for this series has been MUCH closer than the Knicks’ 3-1 lead would lead you to believe. As a whole, Philadelphia has actually outscored New York (+0.4 points), with their three losses coming by ever dwindling margins. Hell, there is a very real argument to be made that if not for a remarkably chaotic sequence in the final moments of Game Two’s 100-103 defeat, in which the officials missed a clear foul during a wild scramble that concluded with a go-ahead three-pointer for the hosts, this series would currently be 3-2 in favor of the Sixers with an opportunity to close things out on their homecourt. However, reality has dictated that (Head Coach) Nick Nurse & Co are the ones that are facing oblivion now for the second time in three days. So, how did it come to this, you ask? After crumbling down the stretch in Game Four (92-97), Philly got off to another strong start, outscoring the hosts 26-17 in the first quarter. Unfortunately, the Knickerbockers would slowly wrestle the lead away from the visitors in the second half, turning a plethora of turnovers into easy dunks to take a seemingly ironclad 96-90 lead inside of thirty seconds. What should have been a done deal turned into the miraculous of collapses, as (newly minted Most Improved Player) Tyrese Maxey saved the day for Philadelphia, drawing a foul on a successful three-pointer which cut the deficit to two points, while a gift in the form of a missed free-throw led to another long dagger from the young Guard forcing overtime. From there, the visiting side buckled down, shooting 4-of-8 from the field (50.0%) and netting 6-of-7 free-throws to remain alive. When it was all said and done, Maxey (pictured below) had erupted for FORTY-SIX points on 17-of-30 attempts (56.7%), while (202-2023 MVP) Joel Embiid nearly posted a quadruple-double with nineteen points, sixteen rebounds, ten assists, and NINE turnovers. With the big fella clearly still in the process of regaining his rhythm after missing over two months with a knee injury, it will be to Maxey and the supporting cast to get the job done. Tuesday’s triumph also saw the 76ers torch their opponent from the perimeter (+15), while finally getting the better of them on the glass (+6) for the first time in this series, with a 12-6 advantage in terms of offensive rebounds, which could be a sign that Embiid, who had five to himself, is getting closer to full strength. However, Nurse will be lamenting their seventeen turnovers, which the Knicks manufactured into TWENTY-ONE points, which is something that simply must be cleaned up if they are to force a decisive Game Seven at the Garden this weekend.
From a betting perspective, the 76ers appear to have won back a good portion of the public following Tuesday night’s stunning comeback at MSG, with 54% of all wagers placed on Philadelphia, along with a commanding 62% of the money. Of course, this is a team that has been VERY rewarding this season, owning a stellar 52-35-1 record against the spread, equating to a net profit of 12.27 units, second-best in the Association. As we’ve covered so often in these past few weeks, this can be attributed to the Embiid Effect. Including the postseason, the Sixers are a staggering 33-11 (.750) straight-up with the reigning MVP in the lineup in comparison to 15-27 (.357) without him. That influence has spread to, well, covering the spread Philly is also 33-11 on that front, accounting for 63.4% of their covers thus far. Furthermore, Nurse’s troops have really gotten back into their rhythm in this regard, covering SEVENTEEN of their past twenty-three games, including the Play-In and Playoffs. The 76ers are also 10-1 against the spread after a cover, while logging a strong 8-1-1 mark versus the spread in their last ten games at Wells Fargo Center. On the injury front, all eyes will remain on Embiid, who continues to work his way back into form after that torn meniscus sidelined him for twenty-nine consecutive games. While there have certainly been some peaks (that 50-point performance in Game Three comes to mind), the big fella has also experienced his share of valleys as well, with his NINE turnovers Tuesday’s victory serving as cause for concern. Keep in mind that he bypassed the morning shootaround before that affair due to ongoing migraines, while the revelation that he has been suffering from Bell’s palsy creating further worry in the City of Brotherly Love. Coming into that return to the Big Apple, this is a franchise that had gone 5-11 in all previous Game Fives when trailing 1-3, though it should be noted that Philadelphia has NEVER managed to come back and win such a series in sixteen attempts. Hell, only TWO of those series even lasted seven games, both which occurred in the 1970s.
Projected Outcome: 76ers 104, Knicks 96
