3:30 PM EST, ABC – Line: Mavericks -5.5, Over/Under: 208.5
It’s win-or-go-home tonight in Northern Texas, as the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers desperately look to keep their postseason alive as they visit the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks, who are in turn eager to return the favor and eliminate the team that had tormented them so in the past. With five games of this first-round series in the books, the Clippers (51-31, 4th in Western Conference) can’t help but feel as if history is repeating itself for the third time in four years. Ever since this era of basketball kicked off for Los Angeles’ other franchise, they have continued to meet an unfortunate fate in the Playoffs despite oftentimes looking like a potential championship contender. During the 2020 Bubble, they blew a 3-1 lead and were eliminated by the Nuggets in the Western Conference Semifinals. A year later, they advanced all the way to their first Western Final in franchise history only to run out of gas due in large part to the absence of (All-NBA Swingman) Kawhi Leonard. In 2022, both he and (fellow All-Star) Paul George missed extensive time and the club missed the postseason altogether. Then last season, they appeared to enter the Playoffs with a clean bill of health, only for Leonard to pull up lame once more as his teammates crashed out of the first round. Fastforward to the present and it is happening all over again, folks, as (Head Coach) Ty Lue’s troops are staring down the barrel of a 2-3 deficit against aside that has outplayed them throughout this series barring roughly five quarters of action. Ironically, the Clippers have managed to win two out of the three games that Leonard (much more on him in a bit) has missed, which should you give you some insight as to the health of two-time NBA Champion. After drawing level in Dallas thanks to a ridiculous performance from George and (three-time Scoring Champion) James Harden in which they combined for SIXTY-SIX points on 23-of-36 shooting (63.8%) and 11-of-15 from beyond the arc (73.3%), neither proved to be effective in Wednesday night’s 93-123 drubbing at crypto.com Center. Simply put, there is disappointing and then there is this: George and Harden mustered a scant twenty-two points on 6-of-25 shooting (24.0%) and seven turnovers. Of the two, this is particularly troublesome for Harden (pictured below), who after authoring a similar performance during the 2023 Eastern Semifinals with Philadelphia, forced his way out of the City Brotherly Love to return to his home in Los Angeles, where he hoped to earn the lucrative supermax contract that the Sixers opted not to grant him. Despite being a 10-time All-Star, a 3-time Scoring Champion, and the 2017-2018 MVP, the bearded one has a very checkered history in the postseason, where he has laid egg after egg. At 34-years of age, he’s not likely to get the kind of long-term money that he seeks, particularly when you consider the lack of explosion and athleticism that he exhibited over the past few years. With that being said, there has never been a better time for Harden to prove his value to the franchise, with the Clippers BEGGING him to carry them to the promised land in the wake of Leonard’s latest injury spell. However, seven points on 2-of-12 shooting (16.7%) and 1-of-7 from three (14.3%) is NOT what the club is expecting from a guy who is going to demand a new deal worth north of $50 million annually. Will he prove his detractors wrong tonight? Perhaps, though it is impossible to ignore his underwhelming CV is these games…
From a betting perspective, the Clippers still hold the favor of the public even after sustaining another defeat at crypto.com Center, with 64% of all wagers upon Lue & Co. However, it has been a different story altogether when it comes to the money, as just 38% fancy Los Angeles. On the season, this is a team that has been mediocre against the spread, posting a 40-47 record in that regard, equating to a net loss of 10.64 units. After looking like the best team in the NBA for nearly three months, LAC has been nothing special since February 7th, owning a .500-win percentage over their last thirty-eight games (including playoffs), in which they have been a routinely frustrating play, covering just twelve of those contests (.315). With all that being said, the Clippers have handled themselves well in Northern Texas, covering the spread in seven of their last ten trips to American Airlines Center, while riding a 6-4 mark versus the spread as an underdog against Dallas. On the injury front, things are getting dire for Lue, who is no stranger to coaching a shorthanded unit. Obviously, the most notable absence is that of Leonard, who has participated in just two games within this series due to lingering soreness in his right knee. The two-time Finals MVP received an injection prior to the start of the Playoffs two weeks ago, only to look out of sorts in Games Two and Three, which coincidentally ended in defeat; the 32-year-old has averaged a mere 12.0 points on 45.8% shooting and 0-of-5 from downtown, with as many turnovers as assists (2.0) thus far. With this now being the THIRD instance in which he was lost in the postseason since joining the club back in 2019, it is disappointing that this is the immediate return after he put pen to paper on a mammoth three-year, $149.6 million extension back in January. Historically, the Clippers are 3-10 all-time in the Playoffs when trailing 2-3 in a series, though one of those victories came in their last two encounters with the Mavericks.
Meanwhile, it is said that vengeance is a dish best served cold, though from the Mavericks’ perspective (50-32, 5th in Western Conference) this particular entree is being served well over 400 degrees Fahrenheit. During the early stages of the Luka Doncic Era, the persistent foe that blocked their path of ascension was the Clippers, who eliminated them in the first round of successive Playoffs, despite both series being largely entertaining. With that being said, Dallas has come A LONG way since getting blown out in Game Seven of that 2021 affair; Doncic (pictured below) has evolved into a perennial MVP candidate, leading the NBA in scoring this season at 33.9 points per game, while (Head Coach) Jason Kidd has molded them into a more balanced unit on both ends of the court, with the addition of (All-NBA Guard) Kyrie Irving at the 2023 Trade Deadline paying major dividends a year later. Furthermore, the Mavs really bolstered their rotation, particularly the Frontcourt at this past deadline, acquiring the likes of (veteran Center) Daniel Gafford and (young Forward) P.J. Washington. Since February 5th, Kidd & Co have owned the best record in the west at 24-9, besting the opposition by 6.4 points per game, thanks to an attack that has been nothing short of sublime in averaging 117.3 point on 49.1% shooting and 36.6% from downtown. That form has carried on over into this series with Los Angeles, whom they have thoroughly outplayed in Games Two through Five, save for a perplexing first quarter in Game Four in which they were outscored 39-16. The hosts manufactured a furious rally to take a late lead in that affair, though ultimately ran out of steam as the Clippers leveled the series. That would NOT continue in Wednesday’s 30-point beatdown at crypto.com Center, where they ran the home side out of their own building; after the first quarter, the Mavs TORCHED the Clippers 98-69, shooting 54.0% from the field, including 14-of-39 from beyond the arc (35.9%), where owned a +15 advantage. Furthermore, Dallas dished out twenty-seven assists in comparison to just eighteen for Los Angeles, turning their fifteen turnovers into a decisive twenty-one points (+14). Doncic was in his bag, totaling thirty-five points 14-of-26 shooting despite having a sore ankle and being reportedly under the weather, adding seven rebounds and ten assists to boot. (Centers) Derrick Lively and Maxi Kleber were dynamite off the bench, combining for twenty-seven points and ten rebounds, with the latter knocking down 5-of-7 treys (71.4%). As for Irving, who erupted for FORTY points in Sunday’s near comeback, was far more reserved in this contest, putting up fourteen points, four rebounds, and six assists, but (seldom-used reserve) Jaden Hardy put the game on ice with all fourteen of his points coming in the fourth quarter. Kidd received FIFTY-TWO points from his bench unit, which typically doesn’t happen in the Playoffs when rotations are shortened.
From a betting perspective, the Mavericks may not have the favor of the public (36%), but the money sure is in their corner at the moment, with 62% of all money being wagered on tonight’s matchup riding with Dallas. This has been one of the most consistent teams in the Association when it comes to the spread, posting a stellar 51-36 record in that regard, equating to a healthy net profit of 10.36 units. Simply put, you would be hard-pressed to find a more bankable team than the Mavs of late, for during this 19-6 tear that they’ve been on since early March, Kidd & Co have authored an identical mark versus the spread. On the injury front, they will once again be without the services of (Backup Guard) Tim Hardaway Jr, who has missed the last three games with a sprained right ankle. The veteran has long been one of the more productive sixth men in the league, averaging 14.4 points on 40.4% shooting in 26.8 minutes per game during the regular season. However, despite being a major player in previous encounters with Los Angeles, Hardaway has been an afterthought in this series, posting a meager 3.0 points on 33.3% shooting in an average of 11.0 minutes thus far. Historically, the Mavericks are 9-1 all-time when owning a 3-2 series lead, with their lone defeat coming in the 2021 Playoffs against the Clippers. The road team won each of the first six games of that affair, with Dallas failing to close things out in Game Six from American Airlines Center, before ultimately meeting their demise in a 15-point blowout in Los Angeles in Game Seven. Needless to say, they do NOT want to return to Southern California this weekend…
Projected Outcome: Mavericks 114, Clippers 104
