1:00 PM EST, ABC – Line: Cavaliers -3.5, Over/Under: 195.5
There is but one seat left as the 2024 NBA Playoffs transition to the Conference Semifinals, as the fifth-seeded Orlando Magic and fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers will end their war this afternoon in this decisive Game Seven from Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Northern Ohio for the right to face the top-seeded Boston Celtics later this week. Whether they win or lose today, this campaign has proven to be an absolute success for the Magic (47-35, 5th in Eastern Conference), who apart from a certain team in Oklahoma City, have been the most improved team in the Association this season. Under the direction of (third-year Head Coach) Jamahl Mosley, this is a group that has grown by leaps and bounds over the past two years. When Mosley took over back in 2021, he inherited a directionless 21-51 franchise that had been to the postseason just twice in nine years, failing to emerge from the first round in each attempt. After a 22-50 campaign to begin his tenure in Central Florida, the 45-year-old led his troops to a 34-48 finish in his second season on the job, only to follow that with a 13-game improvement this year. At the heart of this revival has been inspired drafting and the development of homegrown talents. During this stretch, the club added a number of building blocks via the draft, including Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner in 2021 followed by (All-Star Forward) Paolo Banchero first overall in 2022. As such, all three of them have left their mark on this, their first postseason venture together; with the bulk of the offense run through the talents of Banchero and Wagner, the tandem has combined for 46.2 points, 14.3 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 1.8 blocks, while Suggs has been really the only member of a weak Backcourt to make an impression with 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.3 steals. After getting blown out by a cumulative twenty-four points in Games One and Two, the Magic have really been the better team in this series, outscoring the Cavs by SIXTY-SEVEN points over the following four games. It appears they have cracked the code on Cleveland’s defense, shooting 47.9% from the field, including a much improved 34.6% from downtown, where they’ve owned a +33 advantage, while also getting to the charity stripe with greater frequency, leading to a +24 differential on free-throws in the last two games alone. Hell, if not for a crucial block on a potential game-winning layup in the waning moments of Game Five, then Friday night’s 103-96 victory at Kia Center would have ended this series altogether. Trailing 78-73 at the end of the third quarter, the hosts pummeled the Cavaliers in the final stanza (30-18), relegating the visitors to just 7-of-19 shooting (36.8%), and SEVEN turnovers opposed to ZERO assists. This was a major theme as Orlando forced fifteen on the night and manufactured them into eighteen points. They also played a great deal of bully ball, nearly matching their opponent’s point total for the quarter from the free-throw line, where they knocked down 12-of-15 attempts (80.0%). In the end, the home side received 20+ points from Banchero, Wagner, and Suggs, with the former number one pick leading the way with twenty-seven points, eight rebounds, and four assists. Wagner added twenty-six points, five boards, and a pair of dimes, but along with Banchero shot a combined 18-of-21 from the free-throw line (85.7%). To put that into proper context, the two Forwards outscored the Cavs by THIRTEEN points from the stripe, serving as concrete proof of their growing matchup advantage in this series.
From a betting perspective, we’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: the Magic have been the most profitable bet against the spread in the NBA this season, and it isn’t even close. Orlando is a staggering 55-33 in that regard thus far, equating to a fruitful net profit of 17.0 units, most in the league. Furthermore, after getting blown out in the first two games of this series, Murray’s troops have since covered four consecutive outings against Cleveland. With that in mind, the public is split right down the middle in this decisive Game Seven, with roughly 51% of all wagers placed on this contest siding with Banchero & Co. The money though, favors them a bit more than that, as approximately 55% of all green wagered on today’s matchup is in the corner of the denizens of the Magic Kingdom. On the injury front, the only concern coming into this final encounter with the Cavs is (veteran Guard) Gary Harris, who has been dealing with a tender right hamstring throughout the series and is thus listed as questionable after missing Friday night’s win. He has featured in five chapters of this series, averaging just 3.8 points 2.0 rebounds, and 1.2 steals in 26.3 minutes of action. For what it is worth, the home team has won every game in this series, which is VERY relevant due to the fact that home teams have reigned supreme in Game Sevens; there have been a total of 148 of them in NBA History, with the hosts victorious a commanding 111 times, which parlays to a win percentage of .750. We haven’t seen a road team win a Game Seven since the dynastic Warriors did so during the 2018 Western Conference Finals, but the tide could be shifting on that front, for in the last nine such affairs, the away side is actually 6-3 (.666). Historically, the Magic are 2-1 all-time in Game Sevens, including 1-1 away from Central Florida. Their most recent example was the climax of the 2009 Eastern Conference Semifinals, where they embarrassed the (reigning NBA Champion) Celtics in a 101-82 drubbing in Beantown. Orlando would go on to advance to their second ever NBA Finals just a few weeks later.
Meanwhile, this afternoon’s decisive Game Seven could prove to be a fateful one for the Cavaliers (48-34, 4th in Eastern Conference), who like their opponent tonight have enjoyed a great deal of growth over the last two seasons. It wasn’t long ago that this franchise was once again left devastated in the wake of LeBron James’ exodus, missing the playoffs four years in a row before putting together a welcome 51-31 campaign last year. The surprising addition of (All-Star Guard) Donovan Mitchell combined with the growth of (2022 third overall pick) Evan Mobley infused Cleveland with refreshing energy, as they improved by seven games en route to a fourth-place finish in the East. However, (Head Coach) J.B. Bickerstaff & Co were embarrassed by the Knicks in what quickly became a gentlemen’s sweep, as the Cavs appeared woefully unprepared to deal with the steep rise in competition that comes with the Playoffs. Fastforward to the present, and they are once again the fourth seed in the East, though this time find themselves in what initially appeared to be a far more favorable matchup against a young team with zero postseason experience. Things started well enough in The Land, where the hosts pounced on Orlando, besting them by an average of 11.0 points per contest and yielding a mere 34.3% shooting and 23.6% from beyond the arc, while utterly owning the glass (+10.5) and forcing nearly as many turnovers (14.0) as assists permitted (17.0). Unfortunately, a series that looked like it was going to be a sweep has turned completely on its head; over the last four games (1-3), the Cavaliers have completely lost control of this matchup, scoring just 93.0 points on 44.5% shooting and a dreadful 27.6% from downtown, while as we detailed earlier, their opponent has become more efficient and confident on the offensive end of the hardwood. It really just seems like Cleveland has run out of ideas, which was clearly evident in Game Six’s defeat on Friday night, which saw Mitchell (pictured below) literally carry them to the end. The 27-year-old erupted for FIFTY points on 22-of-36 shooting (61.1%), accounting for every single one of the visitors eighteen points in the fourth quarter, though it simply wouldn’t be enough to overcome the Magic. Outside of Mitchell, the rest of Bickerstaff’s rotation could manage only a meager forty-six points on 20-of-50 shooting (40.0%), including 4-of-19 from three (21.0%). Furthermore, they netted 5-of-10 free-throws (50.0%) and dished out a mere fifteen assists, which would match a season-low, in comparison to committing thirteen turnovers. Needless to say, this places an ENORMOUS amount of pressure on the Cavs in this afternoon’s Game Seven. IF they are eliminated then the future of this team as presently constructed is murky at best. Will they retain the services of Bickerstaff and (General Manager) Koby Altman? Will they stick with the Twin Tower approach featuring Mobley and (veteran Center) Jarrett Allen (much more on him in a bit) that has served as the foundation for their growth over the last few years? And what will the future hold for Mitchell, who ever since being traded to Cleveland has consistently been linked elsewhere? The 5-time All-Star has one season left ($34.8 million) on his current contract before owning a player option in 2025-2026 worth $37.0 million. Does the franchise view him as a long-term solution alongside Mobley and are they comfortable shelling out a supermax contract for a guy who will turn twenty-eight in September? Does he even want to stick around? These are all very real questions that eventually need to be answered, with the outcome of today’s affair likely to be decisive.
From a betting perspective, the Cavaliers have been losing the support of the public with each passing game, as the memory of their demonstrative victories in Games One and Two have been all but forgotten. As such, it’s a fairly even split when it comes to the total wagers placed on this series finale, with 49% of the public favoring Cleveland. However, as we touched upon earlier, the money tells a different story, with 45% of all the total value of plays siding with Mitchell & Co. On the season, this has been a mediocre team against the spread, owning a 40-46-2 record in that regard, which parlays to a net loss of 9.64 units. Since their sublime midseason form that saw them go 17-1 from January 3rd to February 10th, a stretch in which they were also 13-5 versus the spread, Bickerstaff’s charges have been a 16-21 team straight-up and a dismal 12-25 against the spread. Furthermore, they have managed to cover back-to-back games just twice during that stretch. It should also be noted that the Cavaliers have failed to cover FOURTEEN of their last twenty outings, including each of their last four entries in this series against Orlando. On the injury front, Cleveland has been without (reserves) Dean Wade and Ty Jerome for the entirety of this series and will be so once again this afternoon, while the status of the aforementioned Allen is cause for alarm in Northern Ohio. The big fella has missed the last two games due to a right rib contusion and is once again listed as questionable to participate in this decisive affair. Allen has served as the Cavs’ defensive anchor since arriving via midseason trade from Brooklyn back in 2021, averaging 15.1 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks in 2.5 seasons with the franchise. Through the first four games of this set, he has logged 17.0 points, 13.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 1.0 block as the last line of defense against the considerable size and length of the Magic. As covered earlier, the home team has taken EVERY game in this series thus far, which bodes well for the Cavaliers as they return to Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. Historically, this is a franchise that is 5-2 all-time in Game Sevens, including an unbeaten 3-0 when they have hosted those battles, with the most recent instance coming in the first round of the 2018 Playoffs, a narrow 105-100 triumph over the Pacers. Of course, some guy named LeBron James unleashed FORTY-FIVE points in that clinching affair….