10:00 PM EST, TNT – Line: Nuggets -5.5, Over/Under: 206.5
The second round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs rages on as the reigning champs have been put on notice by the third-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves, who after taking Saturday night’s opener at Ball Arena, look to do it once again in this Game Two of the Western Conference Semifinals against the second-seeded Denver Nuggets. It’s official, folks: there is a basketball renaissance going on in Minneapolis, where the Timberwolves (56-26, 3rd in Western Conference) are emerging as the latest darlings of the Association. Ever since advancing to the 2004 Western Conference Finals, this is a franchise that has spent much of the last NINETEEN years lost in the proverbial wilderness, with just four winning records and three postseason appearances to their credit. However, (Head Coach) Chris Finch and (General Manager) Tim Connelly have done a tremendous job of building up this roster over the past three years. So, let’s take a look at how they got here, shall we? First and foremost, they hit an absolute home run in the form of (rising superstar) Anthony Edwards, whom their predecessors selected number one overall in the 2020 NBA Draft. The explosive Guard is evolving into a supernova right before our eyes, posting career-highs in a slew of categories including points (25.9), field goal percentage (46.1%), free-throw percentage (83.6%), and assists (5.1). In an effort to help this young team mature, Finch and Connelly added a pair of indispensable veterans in the form of (steady Point Guard) Mike Conley and (three-time Defensive Player of the Year) Rudy Gobert in separate deals with the Jazz. The former has brought a calming influence when in possession while the latter has anchored the top defense in the NBA, shipping league-lows of 106.5 points, 45.0% shooting from the field, 50.6% on twos, and a defensive rating of 109.0. Many questioned if the Twin Towers approach with Gobert and (fellow Center) Karl-Anthony Towns would work, but credit Finch and his staff for creating a rotation in which the two big fellas can thrive. As a result, the Wolves have won 50+ games for the first time in two decades and have thus caught fire in the Playoffs, winning five consecutive postseason games for the first time in franchise history. Make no mistake about it, they ANNIHILATED the favored Suns in the first round, winning the first three chapters by 12+ points and outscoring them by FIFTY points over the course of the sweep. Edwards & Co kept that momentum rolling in Game One of this Western Semifinal against the Nuggets, who bested them in a gentlemen’s sweep in last year’s first-round matchup. Saturday’s 106-99 victory proved just how big a threat they really are to Denver, leading by as many fourteen points in the second half. The visitors shot 52.4% from the field, including 11-of-27 from beyond the arc (40.7%), while holding sizeable edges on the glass (+8) and in the paint (+10), where their overall size and length led to seven more shots. Edwards (pictured below) was otherworldly, folks, totaling FORTY-THREE points on 17-of-29 shooting (58.6%), seven rebounds, three assists, and a pair of blocks. Towns and Conley added twenty and fourteen points respectively, while Gobert made a sizable impact despite scoring just six points, logging thirteen points and three blocks. Furthermore, (newly minted Sixth Man of the Year) Naz Reid continued to be a force off the bench with sixteen points, four rebounds, and three assists, knocking down 2-of-4 treys (50.0%) to boot.
From a betting perspective, the public appear to be convinced that the Timberwolves have indeed arrived, with roughly 76% of all bets and 84% of all money wagered on this matchup favoring these canines. With that in mind, there is a wide gulf between Minnesota on the money line (61-26) and against the spread (45-41-1), with a difference of twenty-six games leading to a minor net loss of 0.09 units thus far. However, there hasn’t been a more profitable team since the Playoffs began, as Finch’s troops have won and covered FIVE consecutive contests with each of the last three coming outright as underdogs. In fact, this is a team that is 16-5 over their last twenty-one games, posting a 14-7 mark versus the spread along the way. Furthermore, the road has been a comfortable place for the Wolves, who have covered eight of their last ten ventures away from Minneapolis, while doing the same in four of their past five encounters with Denver when receiving points from the oddsmakers. These teams have alternated wins against each other over the last eight meetings, though Edwards & Co have covered SIX of them, each as an underdog. After yet another impressive performance on Saturday night, the legend of Edwards continues to grow; in sixteen career postseason affairs, the two-time All-Star has averaged a robust 29.8 points on 49.0% shooting and 39.6% from three, 5.6 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.4 blocks. On the injury front, the Timberwolves are about as healthy as they can be, but the same cannot be said for their skipper, as Finch suffered a torn right patellar tendon in his team’s triumphant series-clinching victory over the Suns last week. After undergoing surgery, the 54-year-old was seen on crutches in the second row behind his bench in Game One, as (Lead Assistant) Micah Nori assumed his duties at Ball Arena. Historically, Minnesota has only won the opening chapter of a postseason series on four occasions, with half of them coming during this current run, and have gone on to win said series twice. For those wondering, teams that win Game One go on to win a best-of-seven series 76.8% of the time (275-83).
Meanwhile, there is a very specific sense of experience that comes with winning an NBA Title that can almost be described as a certain aura or presence that can be used to your advantage, which is a commodity that the Nuggets (57-25, 2nd in Western Conference) have exuded throughout this defense of their first-ever Larry O’Brien Trophy. We’ll get into how that has played from a betting perspective in a bit, but the theme with Denver is that of championship-level resilience. For those of you unfamiliar with (Head Coach) Mike Malone’s charges, they aren’t a prolific three-point shooting team (11.7 3FG, 31.2 3FGA), nor do they get to the charity stripe (.170 FT/FGA) with regularity or force a plethora of turnovers (11.2%). They really don’t take much advantage of the high altitude at Ball Arena either, operating at the fourth-slowest pace in the Association (96.8 possessions per 48 minutes). With that being said, this is arguably the most efficient halfcourt team in the league, relying upon their execution to slowly destabilize the opposition, which is a style that has long been tailormade for the Playoffs. The Nuggets rank fourth in field goal percentage (49.6%) and despite hoisting the fewest treys overall happen to sit tenth in three-point percentage (37.4%), while taking great care of the basketball with a turnover percentage of 11.5% (8th Overall) and feasting off second-chance opportunities gifted by an offensive rebound percentage of 25.5% (6th Overall). Furthermore, they are a top-10 defensive team in points allowed (109.6), field goal percentage (46.2%), three-point percentage (35.5%), two-point percentage (52.2%) and blocks (5.6). This, ladies and gentlemen, is the Nikola Jokic Effect. The two-time MVP is the frontrunner to claim his third such honor in four years, dominating the NBA in a manner from a Center position not seen since the days of Wilt Chamberlain. The towering Serbian is essentially Denver’s Point-Center, facilitating the attack from either top of the key, the elbow, or the low block, while routinely finishing around the rim. Jokic (pictured below) completed his fourth consecutive campaign averaging 24+ points/10+ rebounds/7+ assists on shooting splits of 50%/33%/82%, logging TWENTY-FIVE triple-doubles along the way. With the big fella at the center of everything they do, this is HOW they have to play, and it is a testament to everyone involved that they do so at such a high level. But let’s get back to that presence that they have developed during the last eighteen months; the Nuggets trailed by 9+ points in each of their five outings against the Lakers in the first round of these Playoffs yet managed to patiently rally back every time en route to eliminating Los Angeles for a second straight postseason. In the second halves of those contests, Jokic & Co outscored the Purple & Gold by an average margin of 9.8 points on 51.9% shooting, with 15.4 assists in comparison to committing just 3.8 turnovers. This confidence leads them to believe that they are never out of a game, no matter how large the deficit at play is. However, Saturday’s opener against the Timberwolves was a very different story; the hosts did a lot of good, owning advantages in several categories including three-pointers (+6), free-throws (+7), steals (+8), and points off turnovers (+8), though they struggled to shoot efficiently against Minnesota’s size and length (46.7%), while failing to offer much resistance when the visitors attacked the paint. Sure, the Nuggets fed off of their opponent’s mistakes, but they were also exploited themselves, shipping eighteen points off twelve turnovers. Furthermore, after a series in which they managed to secure just about every loose ball, they managed just THREE offensive rebounds, parlaying to a percentage of 7.9% when it was well over 25% against Los Angeles. As he tends to do, Jokic stuffed the stat sheet with thirty-two points, eight rebounds, and nine assists, but the rest of the Nuggets struggled with sixty-seven points. This is one of the few matchups in which he won’t be seeing many, if any, double-teams, which means that his teammates must find a way to beat their defenders moving forward.
From a betting perspective, the public is unquestionably in love with their opponent, but they may also be finally learning from their mistakes made with the Nuggets. Sure, this is a team that is a stellar 61-27 straight-up, but they have been very mediocre against the spread (40-46-2), leaving bettors with a net loss of 9.64 units. Granted, this comes with the territory of winning a championship, as Denver has found themselves as significant favorites on many occasions; Malone’s troops have been favored by seven or more points THIRTY-EIGHT times thus far, owning a 19-18-1 record in such contests. This current run of three straight spread defeats is their longest since the All-Star Break, which has generally been a return to form for the reigning champs; the Nuggets are 25-8 straight-up and 18-15 against the spread since February 22nd, though are just 2-4 in that latter regard in these Playoffs. Furthermore, they have failed to cover four consecutive outings as a favorite, including each of their last four postseason affairs when favored as well. On the injury front, Denver is largely healthy, though the status of (veteran Guard) Jamal Murray certainly bears watching. Despite authoring a pair of walk-off daggers in their first-round conquest of the Lakers, the sharpshooter has been dealing with a sore calf muscle that has certainly affected his play. Against Los Angeles, he was held below 40% shooting from the field four times, netting a meager 40.0% of his total shots and just 29.4% of his treys in the series, while in Saturday night’s opener he was relegated to 6-of-14 shooting (42.9%). This is a guy who netted a career-high 48.1% of his attempts overall this season, including a blistering 42.5% from beyond the arc, though it will be difficult to match those shooting splits against Minnesota’s size and length, even if it were under normal circumstances. Historically, Denver is 3-14 all-time in the Playoffs when losing Game One, though it should be noted that all three series wins have come since 2019.
Projected Outcome: Nuggets 106, Timberwolves 99
