9:30 PM EST, TNT – Line: Thunder -3.5, Over/Under: 217.5
As we transition to the second round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs, two of the most entertaining teams in the wild Western Conference get ready to wage war in this semifinal, as the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks travel to Chesapeake Energy Arena for Game One of this affair with the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. After missing the postseason altogether last year, it is clear that the Mavericks (50-32, 5th in Western Conference) have addressed their weaknesses and returned to the Playoffs as a much stronger unit than before, thanks to an infusion of size and balance. It’s no secret that (All-NBA Guards) Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving (pictured together below) are the proverbial engine that powers Dallas, with the former leading the NBA in scoring (33.9) and the latter continuing to be a modicum of efficiency at 25.6 points on 49.7%/41.1%/90.5% shooting splits. Simply put, there isn’t a more prolific tandem in the league, with both capable of singlehandedly destroying the opponent’s gameplan. However, even with this dynamic duo firing on all cylinders, the difference between these Mavs and their predecessors who faded woefully down the stretch after acquiring Irving via midseason trade, is twofold. First, (Head Coach) Jason Kidd and (General Manager) Nico Harrison have done a tremendous of restocking the rotation after dismantling it to add Kyrie to the fold sixteen months ago. (Rookie Center) Dereck Lively Jr. has been a budding performer since he was picked twelfth overall in last June’s NBA Draft, while (veteran Center) Daniel Gafford and (young Forward) P.J. Washington have become valuable members of Kidd’s lineup since being acquired in separate deals at the Trade Deadline. As a result, these Mavericks are bigger, longer, and much more athletic along the front line and the wings than they were a year ago, which has helped shape them into a more formidable defensive team, yielding 107.4 points on 44.8% shooting, including 35.9% from downtown, with a +1.5 advantage on the glass over the final twenty games of the regular season (16-4). The other key to this run has been Kidd’s insistence that they play faster. During the Doncic Era, this has been one of the slowest teams in the Association, as the Slovenian maestro pulled the strings of the attack at his own rate. Over the previous three seasons, they ranked twenty-fourth, thirtieth, and twenty-eighth in pace, which is your average volume of possessions over the course of forty-eight minutes. Appropriately, Kidd, who was one of the greatest fastbreak masterminds in NBA history, has overseen a revolution in this department, with Dallas now logging 100.1 possessions per forty-eight minutes, the sixth-fastest pace in the league. Both factors came together to eliminate the fourth-seeded Clippers, which must have been vindicating for a franchise that had lost twice to them in the previous four postseasons. Friday night’s 114-101 finale saw Doncic and Irving combine for FIFTY-EIGHT points on a cumulative 20-of-45 shooting (44.4%), thirteen rebounds, seventeen assists, and three steals. Furthermore, Washington, Gafford, and Lively accounted for another thirty-seven points, twenty boards, five dimes, and three steals, while Kidd’s defense relegated Los Angeles to just 41.5% shooting overall and 8-of-31 from three (25.8%), where they were outscored by a dozen points. They’ll need to bring that defensive intensity with them into this next matchup with the Thunder, who bested them in three of their four meetings during the regular season, which were VERY high-scoring affairs. The two sides combined to score an average of 242.3 points in those encounters, with Kidd’s troops largely unable to slow down OKC, who put up 124.5 points per game on 47.5% shooting and 40.9% from beyond the arc. Doncic averaged a triple-double in these contests with 34.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 13.5 assists with shooting splits of 55.6%/42.9%/70.4%.
From a betting perspective, the public is relatively split down the middle in this series opener, with roughly 56% of all bets placed siding with the Mavericks, while an even greater share (61%) of the total money wagered is in favor of Doncic & Co. Then again, why wouldn’t they be? Dallas has been one of the most bankable teams in the league, owning a stellar 52-36 record against the spread thus far, equating to a healthy net profit of 11.27 units. Apart from a pair of meaningless games at the end of the regular season that saw Kidd rest all of his starters, this has been the hottest team in the Association for nearly two months now; since March 7th, the Mavs are 20-6 both straight-up and against the spread. Furthermore, they are also 7-3 versus the spread in both their last ten road games and their past ten outings as an underdog, though have covered just two of their last ten meetings with the Thunder. On the injury front, keep an eye on the availability of both (veteran Center) Maxi Kleber (shoulder) and (Backup Guard) Tim Hardaway Jr (ankle), who have both been beset by maladies. Kleber suffered a dislocated AC joint in his right shoulder in Friday night’s clincher at American Airlines Center, which will sideline him indefinitely, while Hardaway missed the last four games of the previous series due to a sprained ankle and is once again questionable to return to action tonight. Missing both would be a sizeable blow to the Mavericks’ rotation, with the former a valuable floor-spacing big man and rim deterrent, while the latter has long been one of the NBA’s most prolific weapons off the bench, averaging 14.4 points this season. Historically, Dallas is 5-6 all-time in the Western Conference Semifinals, though were successful in their most recent venture to this stage of the Playoffs, a stunning seven-game upset of the top-seeded Suns two years ago. The Mavs have met the Thunder on two occasions in the postseason, both of which came in the first round (2012 and 2016) and ended in defeat.
Meanwhile, it is a special thing to see a long-gestating plan come together, and that is precisely what we are witnessing with the Thunder (57-25, 1st in Western Conference), who have undergone exponential growth over the last few seasons to reach this point. After hoarding what feels like every draft pick for a decade, (General Manager) Sam Presti has done a tremendous job of putting them to use and rebuilding this franchise around largely homegrown talent. In just three years, this is a team that went from 24-58 to 40-42 to 57-25, improving by a staggering THIRTY-THREE games during that range. Alongside (newly minted Coach of the Year) Mark Daigneault, he has overseen the maturation and development of a wealth of young talents, including (emerging Forward) Jalen Williams, (second-year sensation) Chet Holmgren, and (defensive dynamo) Luguentz Dort, all of which are twenty-four years or younger. However, the most notable piece of this puzzle is (All-NBA Guard) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who in his fifth campaign since arriving as part of the Paul George trade with the Clippers, has evolved into a bonafide MVP finalist. The prolific Point Guard is the tip of the proverbial spear for Oklahoma City, averaging a robust 30.1 points on a career-high 53.5% shooting, 5.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 2.0 steals, with his insane pace and midrange mastery making him one of the toughest players to defend in the Association. Make no mistake, this team has thrived on his leadership, ranking third overall in scoring (120.1), eighth in pace (99.8), third in field goal percentage (49.9%), fifth in two-point percentage (56.7%), first in three-point percentage (38.9%), and third in offensive rating (119.5). Furthermore, they are adept at creating utter havoc on the defensive end of the court, leading the league in turnovers (15.7), steals (8.5), and blocks (6.6), which only serves to fuel their high-powered attack. This is something that the Pelicans found out firsthand in their first-round sweep; after a narrow 94-92 win in Game One in which Shai & Co were limited to 43.5% shooting, they met very little resistance the rest of the way, hammering New Orleans by SIXTY-ONE points in Games Two through Four on 49.8% shooting, including 41.0% from beyond the arc, while shipping just 88.7 points on 40.3% shooting, 26.1% from three, and forcing a whopping 18.3 turnovers. For those who believed that their relative youth would betray them, there were ZERO signs of such a struggle in this series, as the Thunder mercilessly swept a wounded opponent so that they could maximize their time to rest between rounds. Now, they’ll face a more seasoned adversary, though if the regular season taught us anything about this particular matchup, OKC shouldn’t be dismissed for their youth. Daigneault’s charges were 3-1 against the Mavericks this season, averaging a healthy 124.5 points on 47.5% shooting and 40.9% from long range, drawing level on the glass (which is huge for a poor rebounding team) and thriving off forcing turnovers, collecting 15.0 of them per meeting. We’ll discount their 135-86 triumph in the regular season finale seeing as how Dallas sat literally their entire starting lineup, but when looking at the other two victories, a 126-120 affair at American Airlines Center in early December and 126-119 win at Chesapeake Energy Arena in early February, Oklahoma City forced thirty-five turnovers which they managed to manufacture into SIXTY points, many of which accounting for their collective thirty-five fastbreak points (+18). In those four meetings, Gilgeous-Alexander put up 22.0 points on 51.8% shooting, 4.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.7 steals, with a lot of his production coming from the charity stripe where he netted 27-of-32 attempts.
From a betting perspective, perhaps the public forgot how easily the Thunder swept aside the Pelicans in the first round of the Playoffs, for coming into this opener of the Western Conference Semifinals there is approximately 44% of all bets placed favoring OKC, while just 39% of all the money wagered resides in their corner. Similar to their counterparts in North Texas, this has been one of the most profitable teams to bet on in the NBA this season, posting a healthy 50-36 record against the spread, which equates to a net profit of 9.45 units. After a relatively dry spell in which they had covered a scant four out of twenty games, the pendulum has swung back in the favor of Daigneault’s troops, who are 7-1 versus the spread in their last eight contests, all of which coming as favorites. As we touched upon earlier, Oklahoma City have OWNED Dallas of late, winning six of their past eight encounters straight-up, while managing to cover eight of their last ten meetings to boot. With that being said, an extended stay of rest hasn’t necessarily been good for Shai & Co, who are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games coming off at least three days off, which is the case here tonight. Historically, if we take into account their previous history in Seattle, this is a franchise that is 10-9 all-time in the Western Conference Semifinals. However, since relocating to OKC back in 2008, the Thunder have progressed to this stage of the postseason on five occasions between 2011 and 2016, winning all but one of those series, including two separate conquests of the Mavericks. The first was a sweep in the first round of the 2012 Playoffs followed four years later by a 4-1 victory in opening round.
Projected Outcome: Thunder 118, Mavericks 110
